Back to Expert Comment

Sky Racing's Brad Davidson's - Canterbury Preview February 8

 Feb 8 2019

Rail true:

Weather: Showers on the way. Could really impact this track.

Recent history rail true.

Track bias            F2           F3           F4           F5           F6           F7           F8           F9

7/06/2017            Cant       TRUE     H8-9       Fence big advantage early and then evened out a bit more late                                                  

10/01/2018         Cant       TRUE     S6-5       Fair track this.                                                   

9/02/2018            Canterbury         TRUE     G4          Fair track                                                            

2/05/2018            Cant       TRUE     G4          A bit hard to make ground from the back  but could just off them. Pretty even across                                                  

27/06/2018         Cant       TRUE     S6           Needed to be on fence in run- 6/7 winners on fence in run                                                           

8/08/2018            Cant       True       g3           Fence no disadvantage could make ground and wide but fence no disad                                                 

26/10/2018         Cant       True       S5           Pretty fair- on pace winners early then swooping late. No real lanes.                                                        

14/12/2018         Cant       True       S7           Had to be on fence in run at least and helped in st too. 18/24 placegetters entire night on fence                                                     

18/01/2019         Cant       True       G3          No real lanes but on pace helped here                                                   

Assessment: Fence and on pace look the likely scenario early especially if the rain arrives.

Race 1

Overview: Tough race this with a host of form lines to consider. Inherit and Silent Explorer were pretty good against the older horses last start and that should hold them in good stead for this. Inherit is proven he can handle 1900m, while Silent Explorer gets to this trip for the first time. Lady Cuvee and Savigne could both appreciate a firmer track. Alier was good stepping up in trip last start, while Happy Every Day (form around Nobu) and Gloriosa also have claims. Very tough race

Silent Explorer- Chased tearaway leader against older horses two back and stuck on. Just caught on line latest at WF mile. Beat home Lady Cuvee, Savigne and Snatchme there. 2kg swing in favour of Lady Cuvee here. First crack 1900m. Wet/dry seems fine. Sectionals/overall rating last two starts not great. Race two back produced two winners inc Cyber Intervention.

Alier- Had to make two runs Gosford after being wide throughout (overall time identical to Class 2 but 10L slower last 600m). Led on soft ground and too good latest. 1.2s slower older B64 on same day but diff shape. Bowman on, settles in first few, handles wet in rain comes and no issue with trip. Just class? Not a strong mdn wouldn’t think.

Inherit- Tough stayer not far away against older horses in avg rating race last start. Seemed to have chance. Soft OK. Gets the trip and a good run.

Lady Cuvee- Bowman jumps off and rides Alier. Was it his choice? Got home OK second-up after first up win. Maybe better on top of the ground?

Snatcha- Just battling needs to lift.

Gloriosa- Good win second-up when held up on turn but set up with Alier having to make two runs. Identical time to Cl2 on day but L600 was a whopping 10L slower. Concerns me! Full sis to Gayatri though so should really stay.

Savigne- Good behind Lady Cuvee and then peaked a bit on run stepping up to mile latest. That was first run on wet track though. Does she prefer it dry? Half sis to Kermadec. Her mum won over 2400m and by Ocean Park. Should stay.

Happy Every Day- Soft lead day it helped to be on pace when holding off Nobu latest. Was 1400 to 1900 there and Nobu franked form with luckless run Sat city grade since. Should run well. Wet no issue. Overall time 2.7s slower B70 but diff race shape last stat.

Shaman- Too keen LS. Needs to relax. Wait for improvement.

Race 2

Overview: Another pretty tricky race here with plenty of questions to be answered. Rock is a deserving favourite off his last start second in the rich Magic Millions Maiden. He is not over the line though. Sister Sledge is an interesting runner first-up for the new stable (former Anthony Cummings now with Waterhouse/Bott). She went within a length of Estijaab on debut and then started $7 in a Percy Sykes when overracing, laying in and pulling up slow to recover. Sharapova looks the best roughie. Her late splits were good first-up on a wet track in a maiden that rated better than the benchmark 74 on the same day. The blinkers go on here and her trials on dry ground were quite eye catching prior to her debut. Front Sight has the blinkers on and should improve off the debut effort where he got plenty of favours.

Rock: Got back but clocked 2nd Ql400 of the day when 2nd to Terminoloy, who was second in Gosford Guineas prior. Form out of MM Maiden nothing to really write home about this year though. Drifts back again you would imagine but deserving favourite.

Front Sight- Up on speed and stuck on debut but got the favours up here. Blinkers 1st time should improve. JMAC risdes.

Sister Sledge- 3rd to Estijaab in Riesling and then slow to recover, overraced and laid in only other run when started $7 Percy Sykes. Two trials solid- 2nd to Got Your Six in both and that horse just missed Wednesday.

Rancho Notorius- Should have gone close fresh when no luck and then tempo against latest. Extra trip looks ideal just gets back. 1/2L off Press Box LS.

Princess Siri- Should have won two back but race set up for her. Too keen LS 1400m. Back to 1250m with blinkers off. Needs to settle.

Sharapova- Liked the first up run in a pretty good rating race. Overall time quicker than B74 1100m. Late splits sound- Two trials prior were pretty eye catching on dry tracks. Blinkers on, can be a bit slow out but can hunt up and should be strong late.

Vitesse- Too keen first up and needs to lift on what she has done in the past. Needs to settle.

Race 3

Overview: Good race this with plenty of early speed making it tough to dissect. Lucand Lad looks the hardest to beat on form but is he happy to take a sit and not be in this speed duel. Sheriff is flying and should go close again, Riviera will appreciate the geniune tempo, Décor and Spiritual Pursuit are coming off solid maiden wins and Malea Magic has already proven in the past she can run time and is proven in soft ground if the rain comes.

Sheriff: Going really well this prep. Been able to lead his past two and I doubt that happens here. Form out of race at KG LS just fair but figures good. 61.5kg the leveller but racing well. Two trials soft- One struggled, other won by 2L.

 Cyclonite: Resumes no trials off short break. Won fup 1000m last prep in race where 2nd.4th/6th won soon after. Just good pressure here, 1100m a ? and wet track runs not super if rain arrives.

Lucand Lad- 2 nice trials and then worked on speed first up when caught on line Good rating race, winner outside Country Champs chance. Good speed here so not sure he will lead. 1/1 heavy if rain arrives. 61KG the leveller.

Riviera- Won Sandown on debut hen break and back. Got home OK first up good rating race (2nd QL200 of race) in Saturday city grade but form out of race avg. Sits back off strong speed here.

Hemsted- 3WNC two back and just missed in slow time. Won latest KG but time 3L slower other 1300m MDN on day. Risking. Soft OK.

Décor- Got back and never featured debut Wyong, Straight to front soft lead and kept going latest Wyong where zipped home L600 in OK figures. 2nd horse Pop Girl LS finished second Beaumont Mdn since. ½ to Stakeswinner Federal.

Spriritual Pursuit- Good win first-up came across from out wide and won well with ears pricked. Time was identical to B64 on same day off similar first 400m. Again more speed here. Only wet run on debut Listed run. By Snitzel. Horse she beat fup was a first starter. Third horse- well held at Cessnock prior but beaten long way by Spiritual Pursuit all the same.

Malea Magic- Caught in speed duel first up and kept going. Other horses in speed duel finished 6th/7th. Concerns is last 600m pretty slow. Rain would help- only soft track run won maiden 5.5L and clocking a time .6s quicker open 1000m race in process! Gibbons comes for one ride and floing 26% last 50. Other win fup. Is she a first up horse or does she love wet track? Yard important- can play up in yard as she did at Wyong last prep second up.

R4

Overview: Bull Market is the horse to beat but I just think he is a bit short in the market. He only just beat Carluca last start and then won a weak Class 2 since. Carluca was a late scratching from the races here last Friday night (haematoma to its near-hind stifle. The incision had not healed adequately and swelling was present) and could be half a run short but he looks overs if the track stays dry (handles wet but I prefer him dry). The horse at odds that can run well here is Chief Kidder. I put him in my blackbook after his first two runs. I’m not sure this is his race from a wide draw but I’m convinced he is going well this prep. I could speck him at the odds as I will be annoyed with myself if he wins. Clevanicc comes into play if the rain comes. I’m against Beauty Kanas at the price. Seems well found.

Mr Gustavo-OK from back LS but tempo on to run on, outclassed weak form race two back and got the verdict three way go Adelaide three starts back but other two horses form just average.

Bull Market- Just beat Carluca here two back and then far too good in a weak race last start. 2nd horse won 1 from 10 and third coming off Cessnock mdn so not getting carried away. Probably would prefer dry?

My Song- Caught in speed duel and wrong part track first-up when too short for him. 2/5 lame second up when well held by Bull Market and Carluca.

Carluca- Worked on speed second-up and kicked and tired late. Third up 23 days between runs up to 1550m which is his outer limits. Going well but scratched at races due to haematoma leaking it of fluid. Prefers dry and might be half a run short?

Beauty Kanas- Good win last start but form outside of subs two time winner Ivy’s Court out of race just fair. Time was .4s quicker Love Shack Baby on day but Love Shack Baby off much slower first section and better performance IMO. Wet OK, just query whether she can reproduce. Was beaten in Cl1s earlier prep.

Clevanicc-Hasn’t been in a race with genuine tempo this prep. Posted QL400 and 200 splits of the day latest over 1500m they went that slow. Hasn’t won 468 days or 10 starts but going OK. Rain would help- all three wins soft. Bowman on.

Charlie Chap- Struggling and needs to life.

Chief Kidder- Only won 2 from 34 but he is actually going really well this prep. Had to go right back from gate first-up and best L200 of race and then keen and lost 1L in run last start but got home late off slow tempo. Just tricky draw, whether he wants another? Could speck. Wet seems OK but record says better dry.

Race 5

Overview: Another tricky race where conditions will be crucial. The early move has come for Romani Girl and is she wound up fresh? She looks like a potential Oaks filly so whether the 1250m is too sharp I’m not sure? Symi has trialled up OK but what does the late market do with her? Forever Newyork was super fresh and has been kept up to the mark with two trials since. You would imagine he would be set to peak next start though in the Country Championships Qualifier. He may still win this. Valbeata and Dual Escape are tough country horses and come into play if the rain arrives.

Sedition: Had the gun run LS but comes through a good rating race. Claim helps just struggling to breakthrough. Good from back two back when having to go right back from gate.

Forever Newyork- Nice win first-up Wagga. Time was 6L quicker Class 2 on day and 6th and 8th won out of race. Two trials since to keep up to mark. Looks a nice race for him ahead of COutnry Champs heat. Prefer dry but wet OK. Stable striking 22% last 50.

Symi- 2 trials- Pushed along solid enough. Won first up t/d last prep when soft lead. Then raced in some good races. Takes on some tough older horses.

Valbeata- Tempo against last two and good. WNC two back and beat Dual Escape. Then copped check at 800m and ran on off slow tempo latest. Dual Escape beat him home there (was WNC but off slow tempo?). Wants it wet.

Dual Escape- WNC latest at PM and stuck on. Baeaten far and square Valbeata prior. 3 of 4 wins on soft so wants rain to come.

My Blue Jeans- Disapp fup at Goulburn. Had big weight but disapp. Can improve but needs to. Wet would help- Won heavy t/d earlier in career. Needs to lift but can.

Lady I Am- Blinkers again- OK fresh, disappointing second up (received slight bump at 200m). Needs to lift.

Romani Girl- Soft trial. Two from 3 first prep. Last win enormous as they went slow and she clocked QL400.200 of day. Just whether she wants further and whether ready fresh with bigger fish to fry over further in autumn.

Tootz- Concussion Plates 1st time. No trial fup since July for new stable (Former Ben Smith now Danny Williams).Won fup last prep 2 3/4L Taree on heavy in solid time. Yard?

Race 6

Overview: Hard to go past the two favourites here and they look the two. Invincible Gangsta has been flying this prep and this sets up well for him again sitting off a strong speed. Miss Celebration’s chances are enhanced if this rain arrives. She is two from two on wet ground and forgive last start when she pulled up with a host of issues (see below). Happy Mo drops in grade but has company up front, while Prince Mayted comes into it if the rain really comes down (he is a mudlark).

Prince Mayted- 2 solid trials. Sticky draw with speed inside and apprentice on. Has run well without winning fup in past. Wet would help, he is a mudlark.

Catmosphere- Two trials avg without blinkers (they go on raceday). Still trialled better without blinkers in past. Form OK last prep?

Invincible Gangsta- Flying this prep. Chased home And So It Goes good rating race fresh and then looked winner fair way out LS in another good rating race. 2 starts wet only OK. Stable flying! 32% last 50 runners.

Virgilio- Probably not on best part of track latest but still race didn’t rate as well as Invincible Gangsta/And SO It Goes race on day. Has company up front and back to 1100?

Miss Celebration- Total forgive last start- Respiratory distress, Poor recovery and mucous in trachea. Trialled well since. Won first up defeating Phoebe’s Lass easily in process. Any rain would help.

Tim’s Principal- Nice soft trial coming in. Flashed home from last to grab second off long break first-up last prep but came home slow Last 600m.

Happy Mo- Had chance two runs this prep- Back from Sat grade McEvoy on. Has company up front though. Wet OK but best form dry.

Phoebe’s Lass- Mixing form. No match Miss Celebration two back but Q late splits last start in weak form race.

Kentucky Flyer- Put two together Cessnock and Goulburn and then form has dropped off. Freshened. Soft track no issue.

Race 7

Overview: Wayanka does look the horse to beat off his first-up run although he is yet to win beyond 1400m and he probably doesn’t want it wet. He does look the obvious top pick though. The one that interests me at odds if it’s dry is Royal Stamp. She came a long way last prep and there seems to be intent there with two 1200m trials. She was a bit keen in one trial this time in but beat home Wayanka in the next trial (both horses under no pressure). The sticky draw could make it tricky though and she doesn’t want rain. Trafalgar and Pipeline best of the rest.

Trafalgar- Stuck on 1800m last start. Runs well here at Canterbury 3 starts two wins and a second. Good run here first-up but on right part of track. 1800 back to 1550m. Has weight. Wet form mixed.

Braces- Struggled fresh, 2nd up record disappointing. Wait for improvement.

High Opinion- 3 trialsOK. FUP more than a year. Won FUP 2015 but this would be some training performance.

Wayanka- Good run fresh Sat city grade off nice trials. 2/3 at Canterbury. Wins 1200-1400. Runs at mile OK. Won mdn soft but prefers dry. Bowman on. Looks suited with ? on distance and if rain comes.

Sir Barb- Lame two back but good runs either side. Form out of last start ordinary though and time was much slower (1.3s) B70 on day but difference before 600m. Soft seems OK?

Pipeline- Well held two runs bak. Placed only run this dist range in past but 797 days and 9 runs since last wi. Back Sat grade, McEvoy sticks.

Brother In Arms- Disappointing last start and in right spot when close up third in town prior. Leaning to others.

Electric Charlie- WNC here two back forgive. Taken wide on turn and finished off latest. All wins 1150-1400m, yet to prove himself at this trip. Mixed form soft.

Royal Stamp= 2 x 1200m trials have been sharp. Looks a target race. Fresh runs solid and went to new level winning two city races last prep (including sitting wide).

Chalk-Speed on to suit latest and L600 of race was slow. Form prior OK without raving about. Think he will start unders.

Wine Bush- FUP December 2017. 2 trials. Hasn’t won since Oct 16. 859 days since las win or 16 starts.

Race 8

Overview: I thought Our Gravano was a lot better last start off a pretty slow tempo too. He has the big weight which is the obvious concern but if the rain arrives, he generally likes those conditions. There is more tempo here which should allow him to get into the race. San Fransisco is racing well but he doesn’t want the rain to come, while Kilmacurragh is always capable but he has had a few chances of late. Fabricator got a soft lead last start and there’s more pressure here but he is going OK. The form around Welcome Art hasn’t been great but he deserves a chance in a race like this.

Our Gravano- First two runs this prep average but I liked his latest run where there was a slow tempo and he warmed up late. More speed here, the prospect of rain is  a plus and he just has to lump the big weight.

Kilmacurragh- Seemed to have his chance latest but down in grade here. Soft seems OK. 61kg the leveller and comes out of a race that didn’t rate through the roof. 322 DLW/ 7 starts since last win.

San Fransisco-Gun run two starts back and won well. Couldn’t go with Nahuel latest but he almost won a Sat city race since. Wet would be an issue. Probably goes back but good speed.

Hurricane Harbour- 1600 to 2200m last start and was disappointing EF.Placed 2200 but best form a mile. Will be fitter. Mixed form wet. Nothing between him and Triple Honour two back and he gets a 2kg swing on that horse here.

Fabricator- Soft lead last start and had his chance on day where helped to be on speed. More speed here the knock. Rain could be an issue. Won S5 but looks to pref dry.

Triple Hero- Took sit last two reckon he is better rolling along. Can be a bit keen taking sit. Back to 1900m. Good speed underneath him but can run well if gets the breaks.

Welcome Art- Covered ground with wide run latest and far too good. 7 Subs starters out of race for 0 placings so didn’t beat much. Start prior inning time similar to Class 1 on day. Worth a crack here.

Scotty Be Gotti- Used to get back in his races but led last start and stuck on. 9L quicker Cl 1 on day but second horse he beat half a length has been beaten 4L since. Last two wins in country. Mixed wet form.

Appetizing- Down in grade LS and ran OK. B58 country to B70 city. Winner beaten in B64 since. Needs to lift.



Bradley Davidson - Sky Racing

 Email to friend   

       

Send to friend

Sky Racing's Brad Davidson's - Canterbury Preview February 8

Your Name *
Your Email *
Friend's Name *
Friend's Email *

Racing Search

Live Racing

International Racing

Upcoming International Racing on Sky

View Sky International

Form Guide

Sports

Connect