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Sky Racing’s Brad Davidson - Warwick Farm preview 13 February

 Feb 12 2019

Rail: 3m, good track.

History of rail 3m Warwick Farm

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6          F7              F8          F9

16/01/2019       WF        3m        G4         Pretty fair track. No disadv be on pace. Rail maybe 1/2 length to one length off. Most winners off fence but last winner fence                                                     

16/05/2018       WF        3m        G4         Even track could run on and win anywhere                                                    

11/07/2018       WF        3m        g4          OK early and then getting to middle last four an advantage                                         

3/10/2018         WF        3M        G4         Touch on pace early but prob 1-2 off best- got wider later in day and fence no good then                                                

28/11/2019       WF        3M        h8-9      Maybe a touch on pace but didn't play right out wide 2-5 off prob best part but norm wider when wet. Inside slightly inferior                                                     

16/01/2019       WF        3m        G4         Pretty fair track. No disadv be on pace. Rail maybe 1/2 length to one length off. Most winners off fence but last winner fence.                                      

Last meeting at Warwick Farm rail was true last Saturday where they were playing wide and swooping due to wet track.

Assessment of track: Really hard one to assess on the quick back up. Rail position 3m with good track says a touch on pace early and probably 1-2 horses off fence but will quick back up have an impact?

50 unit betting strategy (please note a unit is whatever you’re comfortable with- most betting strategies will be from 50-150 units depending on confidence levels and betting opportunities)

Results for betting strategies for 2019 racing season (since Aug 1) so far: 652 units profit (17%POT, 3900 unit outlay)

Race 1 no.6 Monegal 10 units at $8 TAB odds here https://tab.cm/2MYVjVa

Race 5 boxed trifecta for 5 units-3,6,7,8,12. TAB odds here https://tab.cm/2SIu7zf

Race 7 no.11 Our Revenue 10 units each-way at $13 and $3.50 TAB odds here https://tab.cm/2SFMEMW

15 unit quaddie (7.1%)- 1st leg-1,3,5,7. 2nd leg-3,6,7,8,12. 3rd leg-3,6,5. 4th leg-1,4,5,11 Bet here https://tab.cm/2DxY5g4

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Race 1

Overview: We got the cash with Final Award at the big odds last start and he looks the horse to beat again here stepping up to the 1600m. Having said that, I could speck one to beat him in Monegal. She was dominant albeit at the Sapphire Coast last start but all runs this prep have been full of merit. She only sprouted wings late at Nowra over 1400m and then she was four wide no cover at the Sapphire Coast prior when being narrowly beaten by Luga Lag, who was won two straight since. The run at Goulburn prior was a complete forgive. She can jump to the front here and just might give them something to catch. Helga next best.

Advice: Final Award the clear horse to beat but happy to speck Monegal at $7+.

Selections: 6-2-5-4

6.Monegal ($6.50)- Fascinating runner- Took 8 starts to break maiden but had plenty of excuses this prep/ First up too short, second up ran into a dead end when about to sprout wings, third up 4wnc and knocked off on line by a horse that has won a further two straight since then including a 40k race. Two back Nowra had to go right back gate and clocked QL200 of entire day and then Sapphire Coast box seated, blew them away. 1L slower 1600m B58 on day but that was off 1.3s slower to 600m. QL200 day in process. Fav has to give her 5.5kg. Beat nothing LS concede that (2nd beaten 4L Moruya maiden prior and 3rd beaten 9L prior) but can run a big race here and will be on speed.

2.Final Award ($1.80)- Backed off map and far too good 1400m mn. Time just .1s slower B70 on day. Can miss jumop but looks like 1600m will suit. Clear horse to beat.

5.Helga ($6.50)- 54 days between runs. Two trials soft since then, Should gone close LS no luck in straight and winner won Tas Derby since. Gets in no weight on back.

4.Seles ($12)- Beat Costello narrowly and not sure she is at home wet ground. Tempo against prior. Out of Galileo mare but By I Am Invincible.

Other runners:

3.Costello ($24)- OK fresh. Won  weak 1800m Mdn last prep so mile suits but may need another one or two.

R2-

Overview: Very good race but extremely hard to dissect and hard to have a firm opinion here. Lots of ? to be answered. Colada and Estrado could represent value but late betting will give us more info.

Advice: Hard race to assess. Late betting could be key! I’ve left prices off here as very hard to price accurately.

Selections: 3-14-7-8

3.Colada- Missed start debut but jumped well two trials prior. No luck at all in straight when whole momentum stopped at 200m. Picked himself up! Shd come across if jumps.

14.Still Single- Liked debut in Widden- Got back, copped check turn and ran on. Trials prior just fair and is she better wet ground? Out of a Not A Single Doubt mare?

7.Enood- 2 horses that have beat here have run second in BD Previww (Jedastar) and won Blue Diamond Filly Prelude (Lyre)/ Sectionals nothing outstanding latest all the same? Should come across early?

8.Estrado- Slow out and made ground good rating race debut. Zouriana got past her late. Can settle much closer. Jumped very well in trial prior.

Other runners:

1.Bullet Fly- Two trials- 1st won just fair but wide, 2nd trial ran on under riding but slow L600/Overall.

2.Chabrol- No real luck debut but missed jump and may do same here. That makes it hard.

4.Deep Chill- Blink off, woinkers on. Too quick in speed duel first up then took sit and stuck on Canonbury. Draws well with Bowman going on.

6.Cinnamon Cloud- Not for me.

9.Fanciful Dream- Missed start 1-2 L in Newc trial but hunted up and bolted in trial winning bt over 5L. 2ND unraced and had another trial where beaten 10L , 3rd beaten 12L on debut. Time was solid. Barrier manners a worry.

10.Goivanna- Two trials just avg.

11.Originaire- Copped check start Gimcrack, hunted up and faded to finish ninth- 3 soft trials coming in.

12.Segrill- Prefer others..

13.Singles- Good late fup when 3rd Wagga and 1200m should suit. 1st and 2ns beaten by Colada, Estrado, Zouraina etc. Trial since hit line well in avh time/L600 heat.

R3

Overview: Fluidity has been going great guns and can win again (but this is harder), whole Front View, My Psychiatrist and Allcash are all capable.

Selections: 5-8-2-3

5.Fluidity ($2.55)- Tough wins last two off strong tempos. Latest took off 700-800m from home and kept going. Beat Triple Hero 4.2L last start (meets 2.5kg worse off)/ 2nd,3rd,4th all well held since out of that race as has 6th.

8.Front View ($5)- Racing consistently. Bolted in two back beating The Mist 4L (who since beaten in photo to Latin Light). Also beat Fluidity long way there but that horse pulled up heat stress. Just missed latest in slow L600 to horse that was beaten 1.6L prior tp Mazaz (Red Dream beaten 6.5L in that race).

2.My Pyschiatrist ($10)-Too short two runs back. 3rd up 2400m ? but natural stayer (won 2100 fup last prep). Competitive Melb 2400m late last year.

3.Allcash ($6.50)- Bit disappointing LS on preferred wet surface. Battled on prior. Won 2700 so 2400 no issue kjust back on top of ground and 8YO?

Other runners-

4.Triple Hero ($30)- Rolled along Cant 1900 and knocked up late. 2400m is a risk. Never gone beyond 2100m.

6.Latin Light ($19)- Beaten easily buy Allcash two back and meets 4kg worse off. Just held on latest. 2400m + class risK. Against.

7.Red Dream ($13)- Beaten 6L behind Fluidity last state- Gets 3.5kg swing but just going OK? Won t/d and up to 2700 so extra trip a tick

R4

Overview: Very even race this and a few of these don’t win out of turn. God Of Thunder has trialled up very well but he always does and he probably hasn’t put it all together on race day yet despite his win against a small maiden field before a break. He is the horse with upside. Stephan looks the danger and I liked his first-up run in the country and the figures backed it up.

Advice: Very even race. Take first four selections in quaddie at least.

Selections: 7-3-1-5

7.God Of Thunder ($4)- Nice trial next to Brutal coming in. Won Mdn against weak field last prep. Always trials well but obviously has upside.

3.Stephan ($5)-  Won 4 from 9. Looked jome first ip and caught late. Gets good run, Sweeney knows him well. Can’t say no. Time was there first-up- race 6L+ quicker other 3 1000m races day.

1.Rebel Miss ($5)- Short sharp sprint only. Caught late LS. Dry/1000m her go but becming costly.

5.Witherspoon ($6.50)- Racing well without winning. Better horse when can lead- Speed underneath her. Can she cross? First two gapped rest last start but overall time slower than Mdn off similar early splits.

Other runners:

2.Royal Hootenanny ($25)- Melbourne way first up but still disappointing. Needs to lfit and speed here.

4.Bangkok ($15)-Put 4 together to end last prep and nice trial coming in. All wins 1200-1300m the knock and 1000m here but speed on.

6.Up Trumpz ($10)- WNC on speed first-up but they went slow. Improve but gate tricky. Go back and ride cold? Bowman oin.

9.All In Rhythm ($103)- Back to 1000m and struggling.

Race 5

Overview: Really good race this. Common Purpose on top off his first-up win but it’s interesting to note another win here will mean he is ineligible for the Country Championships. No doubt they will be trying but it will be somewhat of a bitter pill to swallow if he comes out and bolts in. Our Rosemaree had no luck when back a long way in distance last start, Fun Tricks was super off a slow tempo fresh, Pierino drops 5.5kg ans will be fitter second-up and Syd’s Footprints will run a cheeky race from the front.

Advice: Happy to take a box trifecta here with 3,6,7,8,12.

Selections: 3-7-8-6

3.Common Purpose ($3.90)- Good win fup with gun ride. 1300m should suit. How is track playing with gate 1? Wins and no longer eligible Country Champs;

7.Pierino ($8)- OK frwsh but through really good rating race. 2l slower Syd’s Footprints overall time diff race same day. Should improve and extra trip suits. McEvou on drop 5.5kg.

8.Our Rosemaree ($8)- Won back to back Hways and then last run was a cracker- 1000m always too short and chopped out late. Map tricky with speed inside but only one turn WF. Going well.

6.Fun Tickets ($12)- Really liked fup run off slow tempo. QL400 day and 2nd QL200 of day. They did walk though.  Extra 100m + good track suits.

Other runners:

1.Professor Marx ($27)- Just found one better last two. 3rd won Dubbo since LS but hasn’t won 447 days.

2.Gitan ($27)- Capable on day but just fair two runs back? This is easier.

5.Croix De Vie ($83)- Hard to have.

9.Valree ($14)- Good from back fup and peaked late. Won 2nd up Tamw last prep 1400m but just gives them a start.

10.Inch perfect ($55)- Runs well off a freshen but level well found and a few of these on up!

11.Dream Builder ($28)- Resuming. Won weak Canb B60 Fup last prep (14 subs st next 30 days for 2 placings). Beat Inch perfect there and meets horse 2.5kg better off doing so.

12.Syd’s Footprints ($8)- Looks the leader- Impressive first two starts inc defeating Healing Hands who won 4L Dubbo since 3L thrashing by Syd’s Footprints. Latest 1280 back to 1100 too short but still ran quicker time Pierino through diff 1100m race (off quicker early tempo though). Pierino carried 59kg though and SF 52kg.

13.Safe Landing ($14)- Knocked up fresh. This is tougher and seems to always go around very short when onlh won a weak maiden. Risking.

Race 6

Overview: Good race. Frankely Awesome has only trialled averagely but she has never been a flash trialler and the market might tell the story with her. McCormack looks as if he is crying out for further and could represent value. Archedemus has trialled up well and just has to reproduce on top of the ground. Aliferous also a knockout hope.

Advice: Guided by the market here. No firm opinion but if money arrives for Frankely Awesome or  Archedemus I will respect that. No prices here as market intel important.

Selections (for now): 3-6-5-9

3.Archedemus- Resuming off a really nice trial. Won two of three last prep and fell only other run.  Can be a bit edgy in gates. Obviously talented and gets through wet ground. Can he produce same top of ground 1300m.

6.Frankely Awesome- Two trials just fair. Came a fair way first prep. Watch for her late.

5.Juventus- Comes out of good rating race (easily quickest 3 x 1200m races day) where third to You Make Me Smile. QL200. Won 1300m and should get across ok from gate.

9.Aliferous- Got home OK fresh in race run to suit. Wanted to lay in during home straight. Should run on again.

Other runners:

1.Ever So Natural- Just battling of late and needs to lift. Back in class again.

2.Laszlo- Good win last start and kept fresh. 2nd,3rd,4th all well held since from last start. 1200m-1600m wins have come. 4/5 wins on good tracks. Stable flying- 32% last 50.

4.Dunatun- WNC last start here 1200m but one turn and went slow. Stuck on. Going OK. Wet/dry ok.

8. Bad Boy For Love- Won LS Bathurst but big step up grade here.

10.Burden Of Proof- Hectic speed up front meant she blew out first up and peaked late. Won second-up in past, drops 3.5kg.  All wins prov/ country.

12.Smith- Trial just fair and would have to lift on form last prep.

R7

Overview: I think Our Revenue looks the each-way play of the day here at $13. Her latest run was a cracker and she carried a huge weight prior at Canberra. She doesn’t have to be last here from the gate either. Jester Angel looks the danger and I could save on her. Lips N Lashes and Soul Star also have claims.

Selections: 11-1-5-4

Advice: Our Revenue each-way. Could save on Jester Angel at $8.50.

11.Our Revenue- ($8)- Liked this run LS. 2NDql600 of the night nd had to go right back gate, Beat Zuzzudion home two back and meets that horse 9.5kg better for doing so.

1.Jester Angel ($6)- Won first two stars at Corowa and WAGGA THIS TIME IN. Time Slick LS. 6L quicker than Mdn despite 3L slower to 600m. 32.76 home 2nd QL600 of day ls and first up. Should roll forward.

5.Lips N Lashes ($6)- Two wins Taree and Tamworth- Win almost 10L quicker Mdn fup Taree, again time good second-up Tamworth. Form avg out of both races.

4.Soul Star ($6)- Runner up both runs this prep and winners are subs city winners since,. Only won 1/12. Sectionals OK. Dolan claims.

Other runners:

2.Verlan ($8)- Overraced and caught in speed duel last start and faded. Good win prior but gun run and just won in race where 5 subs st 0 placings.

3.Mileage ($20)- 2nd Goulburn last start had chance. Gave winner 3,5kg. Q 3 x1200m races day but other two maidens. Gate 10 awkward, McEvoy on..

6.Red Chandelier ($16)- Blinkers again, winkers off. Soft trial with blinkers on at Randwick. First-up last prep avg but all other fresh runs pretty good. Only time missed place fresh last prep. Gets back but knockout hope.

7.Delago Thunder ($49)- Hard to have on two runs this prep.

8.Mixed Blossom ($49)- Well held LS, 536 days since last wim.

10.Fraternater ($25)- Raced flat LS in July. Resuming. 198 DAY BREAK. NO TRIALS. Fresh form just OK.

12.Zuzzudio ($25)-Had chance last few and weight swing against OR doesn’t read well from two back.



Bradley Davidson - Sky Racing

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Sky Racing’s Brad Davidson - Warwick Farm preview 13 February

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