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Sky Racing's Brad Davidson - Canterbury Park preview February 22

 Feb 22 2019

Best bet

Race 4 no.1 Koonunga (need her to get back out though to suggest play as firmed into odds on now. Hence why she isn’t in betting strategy as I’ve marked her $2 and currently $1.90)

Best value

Race 8 no.2 Boomtown Rat $8.50 and $3.70

35 unit betting strategy-

Race 8 no.2 Boomtown Rat 10 unit win at $8.50 and 15 unit place at $3.70 (only two dividends)

10 unit early quaddie (starts r1, 111%): 1st leg: 2,7,11. 2nd leg: 9. 3rd leg: 1,5,9. 4th leg: 1.

Results for betting strategies for 2019 racing season (since Aug 1) so far: 635.5 units profit (15%POT, 4300 unit outlay).

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Track: Soft 7.

Weather: Shower or two.

Wind: Moderate SSE predicted for start of the night but easing during the night. Moderate tail wind down the back straight predicted.

Rail out 6m

Recent history with rail out 6m Canterbury

11/01/2017         Cant       6M+       G4          Fair but on pace helped                                               

9/09/2017            Cant       6m          G4          On speed favours- fence OK but got wider later but fence still OK                                                              

5/01/2017            Cant       6m          G4          On speed favours-Hard to make ground as a whole but not impossible.                                                  

2/01/2018            Canterbury         6M         G4 off but S        Fence and then on pace a big advantage                                               

21/02/2018         Cant       6m          S7-6       Fair track                                                            

5/06/2018            Cant       6m          H8           On pace adv. Tough to make ground                                                       

25/07/2018         Cant       6m                          Fence and on pace massive bias                                                

29/08/2018         Cant       6m          G3          Pretty fair track this. Maybe hard fence not the best place to be.                                               

9/01/2019            Cant       6m          S7           Quite few winners pace.fence but good runs out wide too. Seemed to be able to sit 3WNC. On pace helped overall                                                       

1/02/2019            Cant       6m          S6           Med adv on pace rail but could make ground and could win out wide still.               

Last meeting Canterbury- 15/02/2019     Cant       3m          G4          Not easy to win from the back as a rule but prob more tempo related. Reckon hard fence wasn't great. Seemed to be lanes 2-3 best.                                                     

Overall assessment- Fence and on pace normally a good advantage in the 6m rail.                                            

Preview

Race 1

Overview: Tricky race with the rain now and it will all depend on how these youngsters handle the track. Zouriana probably has the best form coming in but she is a bit risky at the barriers? Edison and Belitsa are both in this.

Advice: Should give us a bit of a guide on track pattern here.

Selections: 11-7-2-4.

11.Zouriana ($4.30)- Missed start and out back on debut before running on really well. Jumped a touch better in trial prior. Just needs to jump to be in?

7.Belitsa ($5)- Chased home a subs city placegetter (All Cylinder) first-up and race was run quicker than 3YO Mdn on day. Trialled well prior and has race fitness on her side.

2.Edison ($6.50)- Two trials solid with no blinkers and they go on race dat. 1st/2nd in latest trial have ran well since (Bullet Fly 3rd to Deep Chill and Dresden Green 2nd to Aussie). Mum is a half to G1 winner Invest.

4.Mesmer ($6.50)- Blinkers off- Ran off the track and slow out on debut. Two trials this time in have been solid. Chased home Fiery Red first trial and then won latest in time .4s quicker than Edison same day. Jumped well at the trials. Will he be on his best behaviour this time?

Other runners:

1.Call Me Mo ($34)- 1 trial- Hung out around the home turn and the time was slow. Mum won over 2200m so may get a trip but doing too much wrong for me at this stage.

3.Lucky Imperator ($18)- Three trials. Bumped into Classique Legend (could be a superstar) in latest trial in quick time but struggled two prior.Blinkers on latest trial and showed more speed.

5.Papal Warrior ($8)- 2 trials- First ran off feet in a very quick heat behind Faretti (backed in Silver Slipper Sat) and then finished off well behind Mesmer latest trial. Didn’t wear blinkers in trials but on here.

6.Riot Act ($53)- Well held some slow trials. Blinkers on after not being on in trials. Mum won over 2200m.

9.Diamond Affair ($106)- Hard to have off only trial where ridden along and didn’t run on.

10.She’s Bionic ($13)- 2 trials- Won first trial in slow time (35.9s last 600m was slow). 2nd trial up there and faded late under no pressure. ½ to I Like It Easy and mum was a stakeswinner. Query with start. Can be a bit tardy first two strides.

12.Gina Lola- Slightly slow out and held ground to line first-up. Will be better for that.

 

Race 2

Overview: Mizzy looks a good thing as her price suggests. She will be up on speed (which is normally an advantage with this rail position) and if she runs up to last start, she should be winning. The only knock I can find is the worst run of her career was second-up last prep but there could be a host of reasons for that. Dunbrody Power looks the only possible danger and he comes out of that solid Magic Millions Maiden which has produced several winners since. She is likely to drift back though.

Advice: Mizzy looks a good thing but she is at a good things price. Dunbrody Power the obvious exacta pick.

Selections: 9-7-5-4.

9.Mizzy ($1.35)- Backed from 20s into $7.50 first up and sat wide on speed and went super when 3rd to Fiesta and Estijaab., Set weights, G3 placed last prep. Only negative is only bad run last prep came 2nd up? Should win.

7.Dunbrody Power ($5)- QL200 of day first up when came from off pace (on pace day) to just miss. Then 4TH MM Maiden where 2nd,6th,7th,9th have all won since. Just drifts back you would imagine with rail out 6m?

5.Brunetta ($37)- Had chance debut but mum won over a mile so will appreciate further.. Mdn rated well, place perhaps.

4.Achondrite ($50)- ½ to a G1 winner in Japan over a mile. Won only trial this time in but slow overall time/L600 and 2nd/3rd in trial beaten comfortably only start prior.

3.Sir Owen- Beat all bar Kylease first up but didn’t exactly run on. Place best.

Other runners:

1.Canzonet- Blinkers on, gelded. OK in weak rating maiden last start. Slow to recover on debut but prefer others.

2.Gayson- Trials/starts just fair. Needs to imp significantly and even then I doubt he could match top two chances.

8.Ivira ($150)- Had chance KG. Race rated .8s slower Cl 2 same day and a lot of that last 600m.

10.Press Box ($75)- OK behind Bucephalus fresh and then didn’t handle heavy latest. Well bred but had a few chances. Others with more upside.

 

Race 3

Overview: The rain has made this race interesting. Great Danger is two from two on wet ground and he is probably the horse to beat but he is getting short enough all the same off country form. The real X-factor here is Miss Belief. She is by Snitzel and should handle the wet and just how good is she? Can you run on from the back? Helga has claims with luck from the draw, while Fun Fact could be the best roughie here. He did enough fresh and all three wins have come at a mile. The 1250m to 1600m doesn’t look ideal on paper but he won at a mile second-up last prep and the wet track is in his favour (providing he is fit enough).

Advice: Track pattern and market moves key here. Is there money for Miss Belief? Is there a bias by now? I could speck Fun Fact the place if he isn’t a big drifter after the yard.

Selections: 5-9-1-4-3 (for now, could change late mail on Sky Thoroughbred Central)

5.Great Danger ($3.50)- Bolted in first two starts and then had 60.5kg and looked as if looking for firther latest. Also was firm track against him? 1550m now. Half to Juventus. JMac on.

9.Miss Belief ($4.20)- Promising filly- Nice win on debut (time just OK, second failed since but third won a mdn). Mum won a Chairman’s Handcap 2600m. Wet should be no issue if rain arrives.

7.Helga- Soft lead latest, rider dropped whip 200m and caught on line. No ,uck prior. Tricky draw but racing well and wet/dry no issue. Horse that beat her LS A Derby prospect.

1.Fun Fact ($11)-Got back and actually warmed up late fresh in a good rating race. 1250 to 1600m. All 3 x winx 1600m. Could be one short but did win mdn 2nd up mile last prep?

4.Schnapps ($7)-Led and won in avg figures two back and then just caught late latest. Up to 1550m. Any on pace bias by now?

3.Silent Explorer ($12)- 3WNC last start over 1900 on wet track with big weight forgive. Effort prior was solid in a weak form/rating race. Twice placed Sat city grade last season.

Other runners:

2.Leatherhead- OK first up without getting carried away. Entitled to run on and finished off OK. Won mdn 2nd up at 1300m last prep. Beat Fun Fact home Flem 1800m last prep.

6.Aliferous ($14) Laid in both runs this prep. Got home OK latest in solid race where prov champs favourite won race on day hard to mack ground from back. Blinkers 1st time. Beaten 3L spring stakes only mile run.

8.Elusive Nature ($9)- 3WNC from 800m and still too strong LS. 7 subs st out of that erace for no winners the knock. Draws to get a good run.

 

Race 4

Overview: Koonunga looks the best of the night for mine. She is two from two and beat a pretty similar field by 2 ½ lengths last start. The 59.5kg could be the leveller but she gets a great run on speed and should be too strong. She won on a Soft 5 last start and being by Not A Single Doubt the wet track should be fine. Our Revenue (oh so close for us last start) and Soul Star (wet track a ?) look the dangers but expecting Koonunga to be too strong. Tootz was ok first-up but was on the right part of the track and back to 1100m makes it tricky for her IMO.

Advice: Koonunga to win although into odds on now after firm this morning. Hopefully gets back out to $2.10?

Selections: 1-8-5-6

1.Koonunga ($2)- Nice mare. Won two straight this prep and pretty soft win latest. Stays same grade, up on speed and htb again.

8.Our Revenue ($7.50)- Missed in a photo LS WF 1100m after being held up momentarily on turn off muddling tempo. Chased home Koonunga after having to go right back from gate prior and gets a 2.5kg swing on that horse.

5.Soul Star ($9)- Just missed after covering ground LS when finishing alongside Our Revenue. They meet at level weights here. Chased home subsequent winners first two starts this prep.

6.Tootz($11)- On right part of track (rail big advantage) and was OK fup on suitable heavy 8. Back to 1100 now. Somewhat against but should get on pace favours.

Other runners:

2.Hesco Gold ($32)- Blinkers off, concussion plates off. Soft trial. FUP since Feb last year. New stable./ Would need to improve.

3. Little Red Shoes ($13)-2 soft trials where she has actually shown speed. Likely to drift back from gate? Won 3/5 last prep in OK figures. All 5 wins 900 or 1000 and resumes 1100?

4.Phoebe’s Lass ($27)- Just struggling of late. OK two back but weak race Beat All Too Royal four back but hard to have here. Back to mares grade.

7.Dangerous Breeding ($53)- Racing well in Canberra but doubt figures/form strong enough for this.

 

Race 5

Overview: Cisco Bay was a tough winner when 1200m up to 1600m at Warwick Farm second-up and he loves wet tracks. He is on trial at the trip but looks a real tough horse and brings the best form to the table here. Fabricator and Makdanife look the main dangers and both horses will appreciate the cut out of the track.

Advice: Cisco Bay to win.

Selections- 1-3-4-2.

1.Cisco Bay ($2.90)- 1200m to 1600m and race run to suit but still strong late. Goes up 7.5kg  and on trial at 1900m but looks a tough horse and should stay.

3.Fabricator ($5)- Found the fast lane last start but stick on in a race run to suit those off speed. Just missed with easy lead prior. Can’t say no. Wet no issue.

4.Makdanife ($8)- Solid first-up, second-up 1550m Canterbury too firm for him and sit and sprint against. 1900n no issue as won twice at 2100m. All three wins soft.

2.Charlie Royale ($8)- Tough country horse. Should have probably won the Bega Cup when held up on the turn. Distance no issue. Gets goopd run behind speed and keeps kicking. Good place chance. Prefers dry I would suggest.

Other runners:

5.Breakdance ($7)- Nice win first-up but it was a sit and sprint and they didn’t exactly dash home. Has upside but needs to lift all the same.

6.Joe’s Joy- Right part of track but much improved effort on soft ground (preferred ground). Figures out of the race were average.

7.Scotty Be Gotti ($50)- Won at Kempsey and then got home OK last start but entitled to run on. That was on a heavy track and I think he is better suited on dry. Class still a ?

8.First Courrier ($17)- Nice win at Nowra over the mile. Drops 7.5kg off that and run prior just caught late after being wide first half of race. Want dry.

 

Race 6

Overview: Good race. I was starting to warm to Clear The Beach but then the rain came and that’s the query first-up off a long break. The soft track isn’t ideal for Invincible Gangsta either. Bombarding gets the blinkers on and will be hard to catch but he did beat nothing last start.

Advice: With all that in mind, I’m happy to suggest a small play on Torphenhow at the odds providing the track is fair. We should know by now. Star Shaft not hopeless at big odds for exotics, quaddies.

Selections: 2-5-4-1-11

2.Bombarding ($4)- Blinkers again.Looked good in a tickover trial since last start which he won although it was a weak race. 7 subs st 1 placings. Beaten by a subs winner It’s So Obvious prior.

5.Torpenhow ($7.50)- Last two fresh runs have been good. QL600 of day off slow tempo first up last prep on a day where it was hard to make ground. 2nd QL600 of day when midfield behind Drachenfels prior. Speed here to suit. Can they make ground with rail lout 6m?

4.Invincible Gangsta ($5)- Good run last start on a track that wasn’t ideal for him. He also wasn’t rails in run and you had to be that night (nice advantage to be anyway). Win prior was in good figures. Prefers dry.

1.Clear The Beach ($6)- First-up since June last year. Little disappointing last prep but they were in b89 and 93. Drops to a 76 here. Liked his soft trial. Normally effective fresh. Market?

11.Star Shaft ($21)- Two nice trials this time in. Couldn’t ask for much more on that front. His fresh form is actually pretty good. Any market support. Place hope perhaps.

Other runners:

6.The Pharoah ($21)- Pulled up lame LS. Going OK prior but struggling to win (559 days since last win). Back to 1100m also a knock from a wide draw.

7.Catmosphere ($84)- May not have handled wet track first up but trials prior were average.

8.Ellie’s Encore ($14)- Trial was solid. Best form has been a bit later in preps? Could get into a tricky spot from gate one.

9.Virgilio ($14)- Heavy against LS and form prior sound. Tricky draw and a few others more upside?

 

R7-

Overview- I know Tonsor gets a 2kg swing on Don’t Leave Me Out for being beaten half a length by that horse first-up but the wet track has swayed me back to Don’t Leave Me Out at the better odds providing the track is somewhat fair. Back to Tonsor if it is a mad leaders track which it could be. Looks a race in three with Grimoire (should have won last start) the other main hope.

Advice: Not much between the top three. Leaders track- advantage Tonsor. Even and I want to be with Don’t Leave Me Out at better odds.

Selections: 7-8-9-6

7.Don’t Leave Me Out ($4.30)- 2/2 this prep and tickover trial since. Worked out well last start to have last crack at Tonsor who was first up. Wet no issue. Gets suck run again.Never won beyond 1100m but just missed 1350m.

8.Tonsor ($3.80)- Nice return when had to work a touch early and just caught late fup by Don’t Leave Me Out. Gets a 2kg swing on the weights on DLMO from that night. Prefer it drier for mine. Leads and should run well.

9.Grimoire ($4.40)- Good frwsh over 1000m and then shd won last start. Wet no issue. Just might find a tricky spot from inside draw? Comes through a good rating race though. Great chance with luck.

6.The August ($10)- 3 trials OK. 4TH IN A G3 and 2ns in a G3 first two runs last prep. Former Brent Stanley now C Waller. Keep safe.

Other runners:

2.King River ($40)- WNC fip forgive, 2nd up run better than it looked. Up 3kg but down in grade. 4/5 wins came at 1200m. One more?

3.Prince Mayted ($17)- Wide off track (hard fence an advantage that night) and stuck on first-up/ Track conditions helped though.

4.Ever So Natural ($41)- Just battling.

5.Handfast ($24)- Too quick up front last start and lame prior. Just hard to catch!

10.Kentucky Flyer ($24)- Best part of track last start but got the job done. Gets in light again and second horse Invincible Gangsta ran earlier (how did he go?)/

11.Speed Hero- 2 soft trials. Win 1400-1600m. Probably need this.

 

Race 8

Overview: I thought the roughie of the night came up here in the shape of Boomtown Rat. His two runs back have been eye-catchers and he was only half a length off Foreign Territory last start. The extra trip looks ideal and McEvoy sticks. His two wet track runs have been good. The wetter the better for Clevanicc and he is a mudlark. Foreign Territory leads and is hard to catch but is well found at this stage without knowing how the track is playing.

Advice: Boomtown Rat the best value of the night at $8.

Selections: 2-7-4-5

2.Boomtown Rat ($5)- Two runs back have both been good and won when he got to a mile last prep. McEvoy sticks. Took on some fair horses last start (race rating was poor though). Extra trip suits. Just hope they can make ground by this time of the day.

7.Clevanicc ($4)- Conditions to suit in terms of heavy track LS and he was too good (wasn’t on best ground in run either- rail big advantage). Tempo was against him three starts prior this prep. OK on dry but the wetter the better!

4.Foreign Territory ($3.80)- OK fresh and will be better for that. Should roll along in front and kick. Any rain helps. Didn’t finish far in front of Boomtown Lass though and is a bit shorter.

5.Carluca ($10)- Too keen in transit LS and I think wet track was against. Building prior. Kicked at top of straight two back, Fit now. Gets another chance.

Other runners:

1.My Song ($34)- Pulled up Lame two back but had chance latest. Needs to lift.

3.Chalk- Wet track might have been against LS but was well under the odds. Won a weak race with all the favours prior. Happy to risk again.

6.Cascata Rossa ($10) Blinkers 1st time. Had chance last start and I don’t think that’s’s the right fiom. Finds JMAC and a dry track would help/.

9.Vega ($17)- Going well- No luck two back, should have won three back and too firm LS. 1200 to 1550? Has won twice this dist range.

10.Burrangong- Won at Braidwood LS but this is much tougher. Beaten 3.5L Hway Last prep when 3WNC.



Brad Davidson - Sky Racing

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Sky Racing's Brad Davidson - Canterbury Park preview February 22

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