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Sky Racing's Brad Davidson - Rosehill preview

 Feb 26 2019

Best each-way:

Race 5 no.11 Phoenix River $6 (rated $5)- ***Could cop nasty deduction if Call Me Royal is scratched to run in Race 6 so might be best to wait for final fields if you want to back?

Weather: Fine.

Track: Should be in good range but have a bit of give after rain late last week.

Wind: Gentle.

Rail- out 8m

Recent history of 8m rail at Rosehill

28/02/2018         Rose      8m         S7           Fair track most winners came from just behind lead but fair track                    

Track assessment: Hard to make a prediction here considering rail was out 6m on Saturday and it could be a bit chopped first few lanes as a result in the 8m position. Generally rail out this far on most tracks means it’s hard to make ground but we’ll see here.

Betting strategy for 70 units

Race 3 boxed trifecta- 3,5,6,7 for 5 units.

Race 5 no.11 Phoenix River 15 unit win at $9 and 15 unit place at $2.90 (**sent out last night at this price with no deductions)

Race 6 no.1 Seaglass 5 unit win at $5

Race 8 no.1 Mr Tickets 5 unit win at $13

Race 8 no.3 The Cartoonist 5 unit win at $19

Quaddie (starts r5) for 20 units (11.1%)- 1st leg: 11,1,4,6,5. 2nd leg: 1,3,7,10,6,11. 3rd leg: 12. 4th leg: 3,1,12,11,9,4.

Results for betting strategies for 2019 racing season (since Aug 1) so far: 718.5 units profit (17%POT, 4335 unit outlay).

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Preview:

Race 1

Overview: Some nice triallers here. Dawn Too Good comes through a couple of good heats and he probably looks the horse to beat. Riverside’s Cash looks the one at odds who can run well here and he chased home the Breeders’ Plate runner up Covert Ops in a recent trial in very slick time. Mo’s Crown and True Detective the other two that have trialled well.

Advice: Late betting and the parade important here.

Selections (for now but may change after yard etc): 9-1-10-6

9.Riverside’s Cash-Out back in first trial and not asked for a lot. 2nd trial jumped well, chased home Breeders’ Plate runner up Covert Ops. Draws well. Two trials times come through have been slick.

1.Dawn Too Good- 2 trials- Showed speed in 1st trial (where beat home Autocratic and Born A Warrior), sat back off speed second trial but closed off well. JMac rode him in 2nd trial and sticks from good draw race day.

10.True Detective- 2 nice soft trials- Like the way he has gone about it. Strong on line when 2nd to Mo’s Crown latest.

6.Mo’s Crown- One 800m trial but jumped well, led nd won under no pressure. True Detective was 2nd there. Time l600 of trial was good.

Other runners:

2.Dimitri- Showed speed only trial but touch keen and just fair late.

3.Dummy Run- Drifted back and no real impact in two trials.

4.Jetski- Back in run and kept under own steam only trial.

5.Marsalis- Drifted back two trials and no real impact. Gets back from gate?

7.Moreno- Back in only trial and finished off under own stream. Bowman rides.

8.Navy Cross- 3 trials- Led 1st trial, pushed along to finish 2nd to Dawn Passage, off speed last two trials but closed off OK. 2nd Chicago Bull latesttrial. Gate 15, speed inside?

11.Vici- WNC last start at Scone but figures out of race poor and winner beaten 13L in town since.

12.Zarzou- Jumped well on speed trial oushed along 4th to Strasbourh. L600 of trial in 33.3 was nice. Gate 14?

13.Seporto- Slightly slow out two trials without blinkers on. They go on race day. Barriers?

14.Colada-No luck on debut, second up 3wnc but only one turn 1200m WF. Stuck on in solid race.

15.Stooge- Hard to have off debut effort.

Race 2

Overview: The scratching of Still Single opens this up a touch. I loved the trials of Sally’s Day and she had a genuine excuse on debut when galloped on and pulling up lame in the near hind hock (where she was galloped on). Her two trials this time in have been in good time. Villami, Instant Attraction, Starla and Crystal Falls have all trialled up well, while Miss Geneva can improve.

Advice: Sally’s Day on top.

Selections: 7-10-3-4-9-12

7.Sally’s Day- Galloped on debut and pulled up lame in near hind hock (where galloped on). 2 trials jumped and run and look good. Short course trials. Started fav last prep. Sticky draw. McEvoy on. Latest trial time in particular was good.

10.Villami-2 trials- Jumped well both of them and took si second trial but closed off nicely to win that one and jumped well to win first one. Won both with ears pricked.

3.Crystal Falls- Beat Exhillarates in style in trial last Oct and two trials this time In solid enough. Barrier six. Shinn rides.

4.Instant Attraction- Got back in only trial at Rosehill but finished off solidly under riding. Trial time just OK.

9.Starla- Sat wide in only trial at Rosehill and pushed on to score. Bowman rides.

12.Miss Geneva- Just OK fresh but recent trial was pleasing. Got back but got hime really well late under not a great deal of pressure.

Other runners:

1.Still Single- Beaten by a G3 placegetter last start and run in Widden on debut was good when pushed wide on turn. JMac sticks. 1200 back to 1100.

2.Compatriot- Two trials- slow out 1st one, jumped better second one. Pushed along in straight in both and finished off just OK.

5.Lakia- Hard to have off only start and trials prior.

6.Our Sweet Love- OK fup in avg rating race at Ncle. Strikes a tough race here.

8.She’s Rubicool- Two trials- box seated first and hit line well, 2nd ran on OK. Blinkers 1st time as in trials.

11.Wayupinthesky- 2nd only trial, jumped midfield went forward. Was a touch keen in trial but wasn’t tested at all in trial.

13.Gina Lola- Slow out and finished off OK on debut. Winkers off.

14.Fanciful Dream- Slow out WF race and always well back. Trial before that slow out but closed off very nicely.

15.Giovanna- Hard to recommend.

16.Segrill- Hard to have.

Race 3

Overview: I think Bring The Magic is short enough here considering Zourhea was holding her on the line last start. I think Zourhea should be favourite and I want to lean her way. Costello looks like a potential Derby prospect and he looks the main danger. Shuffle Up is definitely not hopeless at $26.

Advice: Could back both Costello and Zourhea here or take the quinella. Against the fav Bring The Magic at the price and against Sir Harry as well.

Selections: 6-3-7-4-5

6.Zourhea ($4)- Good filly. Tempo against firstup Kenso. Too goo$3d for BMTM latest where she held that horse on the line. 3rd up v BMTM 4th up. Half to Harper’s Choice (who has won at 2400m).

3.Costello ($4.80)- Small field but overcame slow tempo to score latest. 11.16 3rd QL200 of day but off slow tempo. Won weak mdn 1800m last prep. Looks a stayer! By Americain.

7.Altair ($8)- Always travelled like the winner LS and late figures were quite strong (off slow tempo) on a day where not easy to run on. 1800 now.

4.Bring The Magic ($5.50)- Run up last 2 starts. Protested against winner LS and dismissed despite a couple of checks from that horse. Zourhea was holding her on line though so will she be stronger at 1800m?Gets a 2kg swing Zourhea.

5.Shuffle Up ($19)- Two from 2 this prep/ Beat Pop Girl fup (Altair beat Pop Girl since) and latest win solid although time just fair.Nothing between him and Costello last prep at 1500m KG.

Other runners:

1.Toulouse ($24)- Blink OFF. Just fair two runs back. 1800m could suit. Right stable to stay.

2.Salsa Man($14)- Too good off slow tempo two back Wyng 1600 then got back and never featured on fair trck latest (no excuses found after vet check post race). Mum won over 2000m but by I Am Invincible? 1800 stilla  ?

8.Mrs Madrid ($36)- Blinker on first time. Up on speed. Doubt she can hold these out despite solid wins Cl1 of late provinciails at 2000m.

9.Sir Harry ($48)- Progressive but started $21 LS and time was very slow. 2nd and 3rd beaten at Newcastle and Nowra since.Race 6 L slower B64 on day and 10L slower last 600m.

10.Gem Dealer ($36)- Second to Shuffle Up LS and that horse was stronger on line. By Dundeel though.

11.Molten ($72)- 3rd won since out of LS but figures just fair and I doubt Gosford mdn is right form line here.

Race 4

Overview: Always tricky these 2400m events. I was against Latin Light last start and he was very good although this is another level and two of the other fancied runners behind him either went too bad to be true or had genuine excuses. He is short enough but likeable all the same. Our Gravano and Equipped look the two for me. Our Gravano will be fitter for that run at 2400m but has the 61,5kg to lump, while Equipped should roll forward and was held up to the 200m mark last start and then was caught on inferior ground.

Advice: Nothing between Our Gravano and Latin Light.

Selections: 1-6-5-8.

2.Equipped ($5.60)- Really good LS- Held up to 200m mark then made ground inf part of track. Bit one paced so needs to get rolling and hope to hang on.

1.Our Gravano ($4.20)- Beat a subsequent winner two back then 1900-2400 looked winner and knocked up late. 61,5kg now?

6.Latin Light ($4.20)- Surprised me LS with a big win and stays at winning weight with 56kg and McEvoy on. Think that’s a weaker form line but has  few ticks.

5.My Psychiatrist ($9)- Natural stayer. Good effort behind LL last start. Fitter again.

8.Allcash ($9)- 2/5 lame LS and just fair on pref heavy trakck prior. 8yo now. 2400m good as natural stayer.

Other runners:

3.Art Attack ($11)- Couldn’t beat Equipped home with a better run and better part of track LS? Prefers wet?

4.Californiafirebird ($11)- Good in a weak form race and then flat LS. First crack 2400m and first try beyond 1900m. That’s a query.

7.Bon Equus ($22)- LS grinding win. 2400m no issue (won 2330m) it’s just whether he is good enough

9.Resort ($44)- Disappointing last start.

10.Red Dream ($44)- Just battling

11.Yorkshire Rock ($44)- Second to Bon Equus last start but held up top of straight and should have won. 2400m seems OK now on way he finished. Is this the C-grade form line though? Beaten 19L only run 2400m though?

Race 5

Overview: Call Me Royal will be hard to run down if she runs here but I think the best each-way gamble of the day comes up here in the shape of Phoenix River. His run was nothing short of sensational first-up after copping two heavy checks and running on strongly off 1 trial at 1100m. The 1300m should be more to his liking being by So You Think and I think he goes close. Welsh Legend looks a very classy filly but will this be too short with bigger fish to fry. I concede Debate has upside and has won her only start but I have to be against her considering the time and form around that debut run.

Advice: Phoenix River the each-way gamble of the day for me at $9.

Selections: 11-1-4-6.

11.Phoenix River ($5)- Huge first-up. No luck at all when stopped in track 600 and then held up again turn. Really good late. Race run in good figires and 11.24 2nd QL200 of day. Comes from good family. 1300 yes! Overs.

1.Call Me Royal ($2.80)- likeable filly. Burnt candle at both ends in two wins to date this prep. Does she run here or other race? One to beat.

14.Welsh Legend ($6)- Nice enough trial. Good thing beaten Canterbury and then beaten just by Zalatte. Gets back? On Oaks path. Talented!

4.McCormack ($10)- Won at Hawkesbury debut then first up KG this prep 1000m. Second horse won since. 22 days between runs 1000-1300 but trial in between.

6.California Conchord ($26)- Pushed along when beat Baller in recent trial. OK last prep- Would need to improve but can. 34 over the odds?

Other runners:

2.Mandalong Tapit ($52)-2 trials OK. Pushed along. Beaten 2.5L in stakes race April and then won onl start last prep in avg figures (mdn same ov time).

3.Zaidin ($42)- Blink again, won fup Moe but just held ground latest? Others more upside?

5.Sheriff ($15)- 3WNC with 61.5kg on heavy track LS forgive. 2 straight prior.

7.Nuke ($26)- Ran on well from back second-up and in slick race resh. 2nd QL400 and 200 of day latest. Just gets back?

8.Beaufort Park ($26)- Good wins country then didn’t run out mile latest. Back to 1300m. Needs to lift off Goulbirn form but did bolt in there.

9.Ballistica ($23)- Ran on LS but was entitled too. Shinn on. Place chance

10.Debate ($14)- Won recent  Rosehill trial in solid fashion.  Won only start but it was a weak race. 2nd/3rd/4th/6th/8th all well held next start in maidens. Winning time was 6L slower other 2 x 1200 races and most of that L600. Has upside naturally but have to risk.

12.Heavenly Thunder ($52)- Would need to improve.

13.Hubble ($66)- Recent 3rd Gosf triak. Form OK last prep but would beed ti improve

15.Major Wager ($44)- Would need to lift.

Race 6

Overview: This race revolved around whether Call Me Royal runs here or in the race prior? Seaglass is looking for 1400m and gets her chance. Welsh Legend must be respected in this race and is a nice filly.

Advice: A few questions to be answered here in the morning.

Selections: 1-3-7-10-6

13.Call Me Royal ($3.90)- Call Me Royal- likeable filly. Burnt candle at both ends in two wins to date this prep. Does she run here or other race? One to beat. 1400m first time?

1.Seaglass ($4.20)- 1400m looks ideal now. Just ran out of room LS 1250m 2nd up. 11.58 QL200 of race. McEvoy replaced McDonald who rides WL?

3.Welsh Legend ($4.80)- Nice filly on Oaks path you would imagine. Should have won Cant 1550 and then beat all bar Zalatte latest. 1400m resuming looks OK. Rolls forward?

7.Helga ($9)- Rider dropped whip at 200m last start and only beaten narrowly. No real luck prior Cant 1550m. Pushed forward. Back to 1400m.

10.Lady Elizabeth ($12)- Just ran out of time when 1400 back to 1250 LS. This has more depth but draws well with no weight on back.

6.Scarlet Dream ($12)-Two trials Finished off under riding. Just missed 1400 but Nowra first prep. Better with a run?

Other runners:

2.Frankely Awesome ($12)- Bit disappointing first up but pulled up 1/5 lame? Another chance?

4.Beauty Kanas ($28)- Didn’t handle ground last start but others have more upside.

5.Major Wager ($37)- Needs to lift on form to date.

8.Snapchat Girl ($42)- Recent form just fair.

9.Autumn ($32)- C/over noseband first time- Bit keen and outclassed Light Fingers but still zipped home in under 34s L600. Mdn won in Avg figures prior. 1400m first time. Racing manners?

11.Red Chandelier ($12)- Draws a gate and prob wions fresh. That race did lack strength up this one though. 1300m now. 690 DLW. Second up record not as good as fup?

12.Inch Perfect ($113)- Prefer others.

Race 7

Overview: Hard to tip against Kolding and he was unlucky last start after being held up at the top of the straight and he didn’t get out until the bird had flown. 1500m looks ideal now. Sondelon rolls forward and looks the danger and he was on inferior ground last start in a race where he couldn’t lead. Bull Market, Wine Bush and Scratches best of the rest.

Advice: Kolding hard to beat but probably around his right mark price wise.

Selections: 12-9-5-8

12.Kolding ($2.40)- Stiff LS. No luck at all and should hve gone close. 3WNC prior. 1500m should suit now.

9.Sondelon ($5.50)- Just missed first up then couldn’t’ lead latest and on inferior ground when slightly disappointing. Went hard that race to set up for swoopers too.

5.Bull Market ($11)- Won a weak Cl2 and then on pace favours when held on Cant 1550m. This looks to hae more depth.

11.Wine Bush ($11)- Nice win second up but comes back 50m now. J Mac rides Kolding over him. Would prefer 1800m now perhaps?

8.Scratches ($14)- Got going late in trial. Gets back and runs on. All wins 1800m plus.

Other runners:

1.Electric Charlie ($18)- Good win LS but was on fence which was big advantage. Third horse Wine Bush won since. Meets that horse same weight scale as that night.

2.High Opinion ($45)- First run for a year just battled. Wait for imp.

3.Supernova ($14)- Two trials. Run off feet first trial, ran on second one. Wins overseas 2200-2400m.

4.Braces ($91)- Just battled two runs back from a spell. Needs to lift.

6.Mr Gustavo ($30)- On right part of track LS but good effort to beat all bar a good wet tracker. Last 3 starts though 26 subs starters out of those races (in 30 days after each race) for no winners.

7.Amanito ($36)- OK fresh, never featured second up. Win last prep came third up from spell this dist range.

10.Brother In Arms ($23)- Box seated, tempo against but held ground LS. Disapp two back. Bit one paced?

Race 8

Overview: Extremely tough race to dissect. The scratching of Spencer disappoints me as I thought he was a good gamble. I think the market has overrated the chances of Regal Stage and his overall time was .9s slower than Spencer’s over the same track and distance last start. Naturally, he has upside but this is a big step. Temple Run is on the up and his last win was very good. He is the horse to beat if he gets a run but I think The Cartoonist, Mr Tickets and Level Eight are all capable at double figures here. Happy to put The Cartoonist on top as I think he is over the odds.

Advice: Could speck The Cartoonist and Mr Tickets small.

Selections: 3-1-12-11-9

3.The Cartoonist ($12)- Soft trial coming in. Competitive campaign last time in. Rolls forward. Er muffs off. Did win off just under a two month break at 1400m Hawkesbury. Overs here.

14.Temple Run ($5)- Wide first up and wins in one more stride. Drifted back, held up top of straight and still won latest. Going well. Up in grade.

1.Mr Tickets ($10)-Resuming short spell. Two trials. Blinkers again. Better horse than last two runs. Fresh run last prep a beauty off unsuitable 1100m. Won when blinkers went on last time at Goulburn back in mid 2017. Runs well.

12.Regal Stage ($5.40)- Good win on debut when soft time on speed and kocked. Gets in light and a good gate. Time was .9s slower than Spencer thohgh.

11.Professor Marx ($5)- Runner up last 3 starts including town LS. Time of race only 1L outside Archedemus who has won well since,

9.Neruda ($15)- Soft trial coming in. Closed off well in trial. Not far off The Cartoonistlast prep. Draws well.

2.Level Eight ($15)-2 trials OK. Won FUP Jan 2017 Beaumont 1350m Mdn, Top two 5/6 fup. 61kg. gate 16?

Other runners:

4.Bangkok ($10)- Last 50m OK fup 1000m. Won 4 straight at end of last campaign. Bowman on. 1000-1300m.

5.Dunatun ($14)- R/up two of past three, Gets back but can feature with right run. Has nice finish on day.

6.Surjin ($28)-Got home OK fresh in race run to suit run ons. Has won second up in past 1400m Mdn. Won 2/15.

7.Shadow Flight ($23)- Resuming no trials. Runner up 1300m first up last prep.

8.Spencer- Overcame slow trempo to score 1200m Gosford last start. 1300m is a plus. Time was .9s quicker Regal Stage same t/d same day. Won up to 1750m.

10.Blinkin Artie ($10)- Won at Taree second up S6. Chased hard Walcha Cup latest. Draws well. Sting out would help.

13.Greenspan ($31)- Ran on well first up but race set up for backmarkers.  Only won 1/11 but looks to have come back well this time in.

15.Gretzky ($18)- Resuming, no trials- R/up 1200m Class 2 last prep. Won 1/13.

16.Tiger By The Tale ($28)- Backmarker who needs luck.



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