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Brad Davidson Kensington March 6

 Mar 5 2019

Best bet

Race 3 no.1 Evalina $3.80 (rated $2.90)

Best each-way

Race 4 no.4 I’m So Sweet $5 and $1.80 (rated $4)

Betting strategy (prices are pre deductions on Tuesday night)

Race 3 no.1 Evalina 35 units win at $3.80

Race 4 no.4 I’m So Sweet 15 unit win at $5 and 15 unit place at $1.80

Race 7 no.1 Gauguin 5 unit win at $13 and 10 unit place at $3.60

Race 8 no.2 Wine Bush 5 unit win at $8.50

15 unit quaddie (starts r5, 13.8%)- 1st leg: 5. 2nd leg: 4,5. 3rd leg: 1,5,6,8,9,10. 4th leg: 1,2,3,4,5,6,9,10,11.

Results for betting strategies for 2019 racing season (since Aug 1) so far: 611.5 units profit (14%POT, 4460 unit outlay).

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Weather- Warm in days leading up and then rain predicted race day?

Wind: Fresh southerly predicted- Tail wind predicted down side in sprint trips. Leaders could be hard to run down.

Rail- True.

Kenso history with rail true-

18/04/2018       Kens      TRUE     G4         Off fence later in day but played pretty well                                                  

5/09/2018         Kens      True      G4         On pace and fencish early and then chopped out last two races where out wide was better                                               

1/10/2018         Kenso    True                    Fence well and truly off                                        

22/11/2018       Kenso    True      G4         Rail ok first 2-3 then wider the better as day went on                                              

5/01/2019         Kenso    True      G3         Lanes no issue but fairly on pace (most tempo though?). Only one winner further back 4th.                         

Assessment- Expecting to be on pace early races and then potentially be playing off fence later and swooping (especially if rain comes).   

Race 1

Overview: Good race. Amangiri comes here 28 days between runs but her debut run was super and she was wide from the 1000m mark. She was a bit keen but I’m hoping with that run under her belt she should settle a bit better here. She is bred to stay and looks the horse on the up. Flying Legend looks the main danger and I just worry about him 1100m to 1550m off a tickover trial in between? He looks promising all the same. Sharapova would appreciate a firmer track.

Selections: 4-2-6-5

Advice: Amangiri over Flying Legend. Respecting Sharapova too. They look the three.

4.Amangiri ($3.10)- 28 days between runs the slight ? but loved her debut run. Got home, beat home Almerheri who has sine beaten Costas easily enough (with a better run I concede). Also beat home Rexx first-up. She was a bit keen in the run but race without cover from 1000m due to having to shift out behind heels. 3 winners out of this mdn (which was only .1s slower B70 on day)- Almeheri, Altair and Mr Dependable all won next start. She also beat home Rexx first-up. She is by All Too Hard and her mum won over 1900m. Nominated for Oaks. Wet track is we get it?

2.Flying Legend ($4.20)- Paraded big in condition first-up and stuck on OK. Now 1100 to 1550 with a tickover trial in between but 28 days between runs. Talented with form around Adana and Roheryn last prep but that set up concerns me. One run short? There is some staying pedigree in family so ould be looking for a trip.

6.Sharapova ($7.50)- Touch keen in run but made ground to finish second to Almeheri beating home Costas in process. Race time was .8s and .9s quicker than B70s on day (yes, went quicker early but also L600 of race superior). 1550m now. I reckon she would love a good track personally.

5.Rexx ($6)- Honest on pacer. Had a few chances. Beaten long way only run heavy but trialled well on soft?

Other runners:

1.Costas ($7.50) - OK first up off one trial- Came through a strong race there. Race time was .8s and .9s quicker than B70s on day (yes, went quicker early but also L600 of race superior)- Did have first look at soft track but still impressive. Extra trip suits. Wet track would help.

3.Magic Interlude ($46)- Trial was OK but first-up 1550m?

7.Gayson ($92)- Prefer others.

9.Dragon Li ($184)- Race L600 very slow at Nowra and doubt that is strong enough here.

Race 2

Overview: Tough race for the two-year-olds. Lubuk finished second to subsequent Magic Millions winner Exhilarates last start and his recent trial was good. James McDonald rides from the good draw and he is the horse to beat.vI think Stronger is over the odds at $19. He bumped into Athiri and Accession last prep and his recent trial was solid. Magnate had the quickest last 200m split in the Canonbury Stakes on debut and should be the strongest late here. He also looks slight ovrs.

Selections (no prices due to insufficient data)- 2-3-1-12-9

Advice: Could speck Magnate and Stronger at the odds but confidence low here.

2.Lubuk- Cornered poorly before running on in Phelan Ready and then chased home subs MM winner Exhillirates LS. Recent trial was solid. Draws well for James McDonald.

3.Magnate- QL200 of the race in the Canonbury.Recent trial was strong late. Query is whether this is too short but he should be the strongest late.

1.Stronger- Bumped into Athiri and Accession last prep and I can’t knock his recent trial. Drawn a touch awkwardly but has some nice form lines.

12.Special Date- Won all 3 career trials including two this time in. Led two trials and sat off pace in one and finished off. 2nd horse in latest trial was beaten 3L by Stronger at only start to date. Trial times solid.

9.Cassy’s Sister- Jumped fairly and mustered to lead before kicking away to win by a big margin Quirindi. 2nd and 3rd were first starters and this is tougher but worth a throw at the stumps.

Other runners:

4.Dresden Green- Wide and boxed on well pon debut when second to a horse that was beaten just 1.2L in Blue Diamond Prelude prior. Time out of race avg.

6.Grand Zou- Bit slow out in only time but mustered to lead and win in solid time. Also nom’d for Black Opal.

7.Montez- 2 trials. Won 2nd trial slow time and keen in run. ½ to G2 Todman Stakes winner Gunnison.

8.Zarzou- Jumped away OK two trials and not far away although pushed along in both. Mum, Arinosa was a dual G2 winner.

10.Aesop’s Fable- Jumped well and up on speed in only trial this time in. Stuck on under less pressure than winner Kiamichi who has finished fourth in Sweet Embrace Stakes since.

13.Zoumaze- 2 trials and she has been runner up in both. Latest trial time was almost 2s slower than other 1045m heats on day.

15.Dirty Work- Got back only trial and closed off solidly behind Dubious and Yes Yes Yes when not under a lot of pressure.

Race 3

Overview: This looks a really nice race for Evalina and she would love a drop of rain. Either way, she comes through a very strong race fresh and her form lines last prep just look stronger than her rivals here. Gentle Persuasion runs on late but might get too far back, while Ligulate just seems short enough for a horse that has had a few chances.

Selections: 1-4-6-2

Advice: Evalina looks the best of the day for me. 

1.Evalina ($2.40)- Came through a very strong race fresh and copped a check late as well. Trial since was good and form last prep around RC reads very well for this.  Horse to beat. Wet no issue.Form out of race strong.

4.Gentle Persuasion ($5.50)- Three trials OK. Went forward in one with the blinkers but went back otherwise and ran on. Won well fup last prep in slow time. Gets back and runs on. 2nd racing prep. Market?

6.Commute ($8)- Bumped into a good field first-up and then won a mdn in slow time. I know Partners ran over 1000m on the same day v 1100m but his last 600m was 7L quicker than Commute’s. Last 200m was even 3L quicker. Also, there is a query on what he beat last start.2nd horse was beaten 9L and 7L two starts prior and third was a first starter.

2.Ligulate ($7)-Got home solidly first up behind Lashes which is going well (Lashes finished 2-3L ahead of Evalina in Inglis race prior). Just had a few chances this horse. 

Other runners:

5.Broken Arrows ($12)- Won mdn debut slow time (slower than 2YO Mdn but winner placed in town since, All Cylinders). Entitled to run on latest but did and then got to frnt fair way out and caught late.

7.Grety Weekend ($30)- Last start winner at Nowra in slow time. Second horse won just 3 from 40 and this looks a fair rise.

8.Onsettling Down ($30)- Won Cl1 two back when went 1L quicker 1000m Mdn on dat. Ran on in avg hway latest from back when entitled too. No weight on back but gets back.

Race 4

Overview: I’m So Sweet looks over the odds here and I just think the tempo of the 1000m race was against her first-up (she was slow out and just knocked up late). She is back against her own sex here and the extra trip suits. Kylease looks the danger and she was a good maiden winner against a small field at her latest start. She has to go to 1250m here and I just have to be with I’m Too Sweet at the better odds. Our Revenue is at big ods and looks overs as well. Cristobal could go either way but she is classy on her day.

Selections: 4-8-9-1

Advice: I’m So Sweet each-way looks a good gamble here. Include Our Revenue in multiples at odds.

4.I’m So Sweet ($4)- Slow out and just knocked up late fresh. Doubt the 1000m tempo suited. 1250m more her go. Beat Call Me Royal 2nd up 1100m last prep and beat So Taken 1200m later in prep. Wet seems OK but probably not too wet second up 1000-1250m. Beat Cristobal .

8.Kylease ($3.40)- Upside! Bumped into Lashes fresh and then far too good latest. Trialled really well next to Ball Of Muscle since. 1100m to 1250m first time

9.Our Revenue ($14)- Going great guns- just missed two back and then probably lucky winner latest when Soul Star held up. Found sweet spot 1100m lately now 1250m. Wet no issue. Has won 1200m twice in weaker grade.

1.Cristobal ($10)- Disappointing first-up but 1000m too short? Form around Sunlight as 2yo and Gem Song 2nd up last prep. Could go either way. Likely to drift back from gate. 61.5kg leveller but down in grade. Beat Miss Fab soft 6.

Other runners:

2.Divine Breeze ($10)- Ridden quiet two back and hit line well in race entitled too. Didn’t finish off latest? Soft/ heavy seems fine. Draws to get every chance again.

3.Perfect Pitch ($18)- Nice trial coming in. Not far off last prep. Distance OK/ Should be thereabouts.

5.Surburbans ($16)- Blinkers 1st time- Went quick tempo here and she chased it.

6.Wimlah ($36)- Blinkers 1st time-Late splits OK when winning at Nowra but this is next level. Has company up front too.

7.All Sassitude ($36)- Didn’t handle tight turning track according to jock LS. Win prior was solid in fair time. Others have more upside?

Race 5

Overview: Classique Legend picks himself and he looks a Group horse to me. Bucephalus will appreciate a firmer track (if it eventuates) but I’ll be taking Classique Legend one out in the quaddie.

Selections: 5-7-1-2-8

Advice: Classique Legend one out in the quaddie for me. Hoping he drifts to become a betting proposition as well.

5.Classique Legend ($1.50)- Very, very good debut. Looks a Group horse at the minimum. QL600/400/200 of day on debut. .4s qucker than anything L600 and 2L quicker than anything L200. Has class and a great action.

7.Bucephalus ($9)- Won a weak form mdn (5 subs st 0 placings) on debut and then slow to recover when wet track against second up. Freshened from good draw. Looks the danger to fav if there is one.

1.Laszlo ($31)- Won an average mid week race two back. Raced keen in front LS and faded. Has 61kg now.

2.Level Eight ($31)- Two soft trials. In top two five of six overall first up. Won 3/30.

8.Volpe ($31)- Freshened- Can often run a cheeky race fresh. Form tapered off last prep. Wants it dry.

Other runners:

3.Waltzing Willie ($47)- In right spot when a shock winner first-up. 1L slower than B72 on day despite race run 6 ½ L quicker to 600m concerns me.

4.Sea Spirit ($94)- Two trials OK. All wins a mile and beyond. Wait for further.

6.Flash Fibian ($62)- WNC last start. Winkers 1st time. Needs to lift.

9.Soul Revival ($31)- Had the thumps LS. Closed off well off a  slow tempo at Gosf proor. Wide gate? Needs luck.

10.Cliff ($47)- Freshened- Form tapered off Dec/Jan. Would need a wet track. Loves heavy ground.

11.Your Witness ($62)- Just missed latest and chased hard prior KG. Only won 3/29 and this looks a harder assignment than recent ones.

12.Spencer- ($47)- Much better LS. 1400m suits now. Wet would be a ?. Winning time LS 5l quicker than Mfn. Place hope with good run on map.

Race 6

Overview: Wagner looks the one to beat here off a nice recent trial and he has been gelded this prep. He has always promised plenty. The Tenor has also trialled up well and looks the obvious danger. Soul Star had no luck last start and should have won. She looks next best along with Mossman Gorge.

Advice: Wagner looks hard to beat.

Selections: 5-4-3-8

5.Wagner ($2.40)- One 735m trial. Gelded. Trial was super but always trials well. Won 3L fup last prep. Didn’t shape up Group level last prep but looks to have come back well. Dolan on positive.

4.The Tenor ($3.80)- Gelded, blinkers/tongue tie off. Two nice trials under not a lot of pressure. Stakes plaed last prep. Spoft track seems fine.

3.Mossman Gorge ($11)- Soft lead and won well first-up. Stuck on LS. Tougher here.

8.Soul Star ($11)- Should have won LS and had no luck in straight. Just missed prior. Takes pn the boys now and the knock is a couple of progressive horses here.

Other runners:

1.Bella Vella

2.Difficult To Get ($16)- Consistent prep although a bit below her best as well. Beaten by a nice enough horse LS and soft track OK but finds tough race.

6.Epic Dan ($38)-Sat outside leader and had chance LS. Won weak form race prior.

7.Up Trumpz ($19)-Gate cost him victory two back. Seemed to have hance when up in grade and distance LS. Gets soft run.

9.Phoebe’s Lass- Hard horse to catch. Overraced but still got home LS Canterbury against own sex. This looks harder.

10.Sugar Bay Leonard ($265)- Hard to recommend.

11.Count Dekroner ($265)- Needs to lift.

12.Torchbearer ($132)- Would need to improve but he does love a heavy track so he could be a rough place hope if the rain really comes down.

13. Sundarbans

Race 7

Overview: Desert Lord has come up pretty short again here and he just does too much wrong for me to dive in at the short price. He is capable if he settles all the same but seems to always start very skinny. The one that interests me from a betting perspective is Gauguin. Gauguin was super first-up in a stronger race and should settle closer. The August and Tarbert have claims as well.

Advice: Gauguin each-way here. I have to be against Desert Lord at the price.

Selections: 1-5-6-8

1.Gauguin ($7)- Really good return in a strong rating race. Down in grade here, up in weight but can settle closer and extra 100m suits. Can be a bit keen.

5.The August ($7)- Worked home well first up in sprint home on night hard to make ground. 1400m natural progression now. Wet track would be no issue.

6.Desert Lord ($4)- Too keen LS and back to 1400m helps. Won well prior in avg time whe he received a 10/10 ride. Capable but normally starts unders.

8.Tarbert ($6.50)- Won four of last five starts including best late splits two back and then 7L win latest (strong speed early exaggerated margin). Looker comes to town for one ride. Can’t say no/ Soft track no issue.

Other runners:

3.Wayanka ($20)- Back to 1400m helps but 486 DLW and hard to have off recent runs against these.

4.Chilly Cha Cha ($41)- 3rd Adrian Knox last autumn. FUP sine May. 2 soft trials. Need another?

7.Screamarr ($20)- 2 soft trials finished off OK latest. FUP 2 preps ago was when last win came over 1300m. Hard horse to catch.

9.Cisco Bay ($8)- Wants the rain to arrive. Won second up 1600m when speed on. Now back to 1400m off a late scratching on vets advice race at Canterbury Feb 22. Don’t like the set up but talented.

10.Spencer ($20)- Much better LS. 1400m suits now. Wet would be a ?. Winning time LS 5l quicker than Mfn. Place hope with good run on map.

11.Lightning Nic ($125)-Entitled to do more LS.

12.Vega De Lago ($62)- Runner up in Quirindi Cup LS but 6 subs starters out of race for 0 placings. Has a nice finish but unplaced two Hway runs Sydney and this looks harder.

Race 8

Overview: Extremely open race to finish the day. I like the progression for Wine Bush here and 1800m third-up looks ideal. His two runs back have both been super. Fun Fact is yet to tick the 1800m box but he should have won last start simple as that. Any rain about and he will go close. Love Waves looks over the odds particularly if the rain has arrived by now. He defeated Chocolatier first-up and they meet at level weights yet he is five times the price. A few others to throw in the quaddie here too.

Selections: 2-3-9-5

Advice: Wine Bush on top but plenty in last leg of quaddie!

2.Wine Bush ($7)- Progressing nicely. Two lovely runs back from spell and 1800m natural progression. Soft/heavy no issue. Up 5kg but down in grade and JMAC sticks.

3.Fun Fact ($10)- Stiff not to win LS. Held up mid race LS and then again in straight. Yet to tick 1800m box but third up still improving fitness wise and wet track would help.

9.Love Waves ($17)- Good win fresh defeating Chocolatier. Did win Mdn 2100m on soft ground. Overs?

5.Judge Judi ($10)- Honest on pacer. Taken on in front two back and then couldn’t lead latest when caught by swooper. 1st crack 1800.

4.Chocolatier ($8)- Good win in avg time in B64 at Hawkesbury last start. Was beaten fair and square by Love Waves prior and meet at level weights here. One is $6 and the other $26.

1.Animalia ($10)- Rup WF at 1600mlast start. Got home well but race run to suit and was on best part of the track. Did finish 4th in Listed race 1800m Oct 17. Gets back and hooks out wide?

Other runners:

6.Foreign Territory ($8)- OK first two runs back. Didn’t lead latest and stuck on OK. First crack 1800. Wet would help.

7.Marcellina ($62)- Well held first up. Is a G2 placegetter soft ground at 2000m in NZ. Wait for improvement?

8.Free Fly Too ($21)- Ran on Seymore LS but entitled too. Had chance Sandown prior. Two wins 1550-1600m.

10.Makdanife ($12)- Had chance latest and just missed. Wet track would help/ Is gate two a pos or neg this time of day?

11.Righteousness ($12)- Good effort to be only beaten 1.5L first up 1400m. Extrap trip suits/ Runner up 1800m Hawk last prep. Wet track?

12.Joe’s Joy ($41)- Last two runs solid on wet tracks. Not hopeless here but a few in front of her.

13.Balansa ($21)- Can overrace and do a lot wrong. Ran on LS after being held up until 200m but entitled to all the same. This looks harder.

Bradley Davidson - Sky Racing

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Brad Davidson Kensington March 6

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