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Sky Racing Brad Davidson Hawkesbury preview tips March 20

 Mar 19 2019

Hawkesbury Mar 20

Best bet

Race 4 no.6 Shadow Bridge $3.20

Betting strategy- 30 units

Race 3 no.4 Killin 5 unit win at $4

Race 4 no.6 Shadow Bridge 10 unit win at $3.20

Race 5 no.4 Invictus Salute 5 unit win at $4.80

10 unit quaddie (starts r5, 12%): 1st leg: 4,2,6. 2nd leg: 8,1,2,7. 3rd leg: 9. 4th leg: 5,4,8,2,3,7,11.

Results for betting strategies for 2019 racing season (since Aug 1) so far: 708 units profit (15%POT, 4670 unit outlay).

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Track: Heavy 9 on Wednesday morning with the chance of more showers.

Rail: True.

Track assessment: A wet track normally means getting out very wide at Hawkesbury. Wide barriers shouldn’t be a disadvantage and inside barriers could be a disadvantage.

Race 1

Overview: Tricky race to kick off. Disco Mo has trialled up well on a soft 7 and I will lean his way. Great Affair was pushed out in two really quick heats but hasn’t trialled since December. Silly Sally should lead and looks next best.

Advice: Late betting will be key.

Selections: 4-5-6-1

4.Disco Mo ($3.30)- Closed off nicely after getting back only trial. That was a soft 7. Time only fair? 2nd horse in trial won a mdn last prep.

5.Great Affair ($3.30)- Two solid trials last prep. Comes through really quick heats and bumped into Kapajack and co first trial. Won second trial in quickest 900m heat of morning but pushed out. No trial since December? Wet? Yard?

6.Silly Sally ($5.10)- Won Hawkesbury trial where jumped OK, mustered and wasn’t asked for a great deal late. 3rd to Celer weak form race only start where faded late.

1.Glowing Cat ($15)- Trial avg and just OK only run last prep in weaker grade (2 winners out of it). Beaten 8L only trial Heavy.

Other runners:

2.Shapur ($23)- Bumped into Baller in race that has produced 5 winners latest in Oct and not far off Glowing Cat first-up at Nowra last prep. Resuming, no trials.

3.Sound Off ($23)- Blinkers again. Beaten 3L weak form/rating race fresh. 1000-1600m second up and didn’t figure. Back to 1000m.

7.Whenwillyouarrive ($23)- Hard to have off debut effort. By Not A Single Doubt so should handle ground.

Race 2

Overview: I liked Costa Zou at the odds but the wet track was the ? and he has since been scratched. Rexx has the A-grade formlines and is logical top pick now.

Advice: Rexx on top but he did fail only run on heavy?

Selections: 1-2-11-3

1.Rexx ($2.90)- Has form on board with 3 cons city placings. Three back race has produced four winners. Second to a nice horse latest. Bit keen last 2 races. Knock is only heavy run beaten 12L 2yo race Qld but has trialled well on soft twice.

11.Estroverto ($5)-Not far away last 4 starts. Held up on turn and had to shift ground 300m out when held up LS an ran on. Yet to win 8st but ran on S6/S5 already.

2.Costas ($5.50)- OK fresh, disappointing second up. By Tavistock and they generally love the wet. Beaten 7L by Rexx LS? Keen in run LS.

3.Reiby’s Regent ($7)- Knocking on door in provincial mdns. QL200 of race LS suggesting 1600m should suit. Two horses that beat him home LS had average form though. Mum by Commands and was a soft track winner. She also won at 1550m.

Other runners:

8.Notabadharada ($31)- Others have more upside.

9.Speed Camera ($15)- WNC off strong speed last start but still ran on (L600 of race was very slow though). OV time 1L quicker Costa Zou t/d same day but argue CZ much better performance and cz race run many lenggths slower to 600m than Speed Camera’s race. Form prior OK.

10.Duchess Of Windsor ($31)- Got home OK last two but entitled too. Untried beyond Soft 5.

Race 3

Overview: Open race. Killin just looks the value off those NZ formlines. Dresden Green just has to run out the tirp and Jetski should be closing late.

Advice: Killin to win.

Selections: 4-2-3-5-9.

4.Killin- Runner up G2 level on debut and then 2nd to Bella Mente which has since finished 4th in Breeders Stakes. Runner up to Aotea Lad on debut. That horse has finished second in Eclipse Stales and 2ns to Probabeel in Karaka Million since. Two trials in Aus nice. Wet track no issues.

2.Dresden Green- Blinkers 1st time- Lost on protest last start and second to Aussie prior who was 5th in Blue Diamond Prelide prior beaten 1.2L. Trialled well S6. 1100-1300m.

3.Jetski- Got back on fence which was right part of track (rails in run) and closed off well 11.44 5th Ql200 of race. Race 3L slower than fillies division same day. Further looks a positive, younger sibling to Trekking.

5.Krameric- Nice trial at WF where he closed off nicely. G3 and Listed placed last prep. 1300m firast-up wet track?

 

Other runners:

1.Avalaunche- Jumped OK in trial, sat behind speed and faded to finish 4th only trial Rwick.

8.Tacitus- Blinkers 1st time. Slow out in trial and ridden along to finish off. ½ to The Avenger.

11.Asiago- Got back and closed off OK in trial. Beaten 2.2L in average rating/form maiden last prep.

12.Bluakiss- 2 trials just fair. Blinkers 1st time.

13.Foxborough- Not far off Villami first trial and closed off OK 2nd trial. Wide gate?

15.Dummy Run- Best ground but closed off solidly at Rosehill. Extra trip suits but might need even further? ½ to Tarka.

16.Seporto- Beaten 8L on debut in race Dummy Run/Jetski etc come through. Prefer others.

Race 4

Overview: A few scratchings here leaves me with Shadow Bridge and he is a fast horse that should be hard to catch. He should be hard to beat and his only trial on heavy ground was super. See The Show looks the best roughie and looks overs, while Difficult To Get will get a good run on speed.

Advice: Shadow Bridge hard to beat. See The Show best roughie.

Selections: 6-8-2-11

6.Shadow Bridge ($3)- Won two straight last opprep- 5th to Omar recent trial but neither horse under pressure. Clocked easily quickest 3 x 1000m races KG on day before a break. 5 winners out of race prior to that at Newcastle which he won. Won a trial on heavy by 7L.

8.See The Show ($8)- Resuming no trials. 3rd fup last prep soft track when on worst going. Wants it wet and will get that. Place hope here atr odds. Fresh record solid.

2.Difficult To Get ($8)- Absorbed pressure and stuck on latest Kenso behind Wagner. Satruggling to win. Gets through wet OK. 4/6 wins at this dist.

11.Ariege ($9)- Nice win fresh where led and kept going. Doubt she leads this. Bumped into Rosina Kojonup last prep. 6th only heavy run. Mdn straight up to this race looks tough.

10.Traumatised ($10)- Won recent Wyong trial where beat home Gem Song (neither horse under pressure). Won two straight in country last prep but this looks tougher. Stable in good form.

Other runners:

1.Black Chilli ($14)- Resuming. No trials. Won 2 races last prep and one of them had quickest late splits of day (off slow tempo). All 3 x wins at KG though. Barrier 10, 60.5kg?

7.Vincero ($11)-Ran on well LS but 600 DLW and this looks tougher. Hard to catch.

9.Consider It Done ($14)- Slow out but just fair first-up. Two wins last prep synthetic and Class 1 win some 7L slower than Mdn on day (mostly L600 too). Risking.

12.Star Of Zizou ($21)- Great form in country winning 3 of last 5 and just missing latest/ HGets in light but doiubt that form measures up. Wet form avg.

 

Race 5

Overview: I would be keen on Invictus Salute if it wasn’t a heavy track. I still want to lean her way over Multaja and Jen Rules and they look the three.

Advice: Slight value Invictus Salute but wet track a ?

Selections: 4-2-6-5

4.Invictus Salute ($4.30)- Knuckled on jumping, WNC and slow to recover first up in strong race. Won a trial on H8 and 2nd in another trial at H8. Beat Royal Celebration first prep and then second to Pretty In Pink which has been G3 placed twice since. Loved her trial win since. Can bounce back.

2.Multaja ($2.50)- Should have won Red Roses and then ran on solidly Typhoon Tracy in race where late splits were strong. Gate 10 should be an advantage by now and her wins have been at 1000 and 1100 so 1200 back to 1100m should be OK. First crack wet track. Full sis to Veranillo.

6.Jen Rules ($4.70)- One nice soft trial coming in where went to line under a hold. Form around So Taken, Pohutukawa last prep. Did win on heavy track when defeating Mizzy on debut.

5.Unguarded ($18)- One soft trial. Won a weak mdn and then 5th in a stakes race. 5L slower Hway on same day though. This has plenty of depth this race.

Other runners:

1.Royal Hootenany ($35)- Couldn’t lead LS and didn’t finish off. Has won at 1200m but 7/8 wins at 1000m or below. Looking elsewhere.

3.Alert By Sea ($36)- Resuming no trials. Would need to lift on last prep.

8.Alastrionia ($70)-Recent trial just fair and wins at Canberra and Goulburn last prep probably not good enough for this.

10.Priestess ($54)- Beaten 6L by Unguarded in Reginald Allen. Recent trial just fair. Needs to lift.

Race 6

Overview: This race revolved around how good Obelos is? The money has come early and his trial was good. The August, Level Eight and Grimoire (slow to recover and worst ground last start) are all genuine winning chances.

Selections: 8-1-2-7

Advice: Wary of Obelos but I couldn’t back him at current price ($3.30) all the same considering I am simply following the market move for the import here.

8.Obelos ($4)- Soft trial coming in, liked the look of it. Won Longchamp mdn soft rrack. McEvoy and Waller. Gate one?

1.The August ($4.50)- No match Desert Lord LS but beat rest and chased home subs winner proor. 1400m back to 1400m but wet track stats are good. Bowman on.

2.Level Eight ($5)- Bumped into a possible star first-up but beat the rest. 2nd up stats mixed bt wet track no issue. Could get to rifht part of track as well. 619 DLW.

7.Grimoire ($6)- Probably should have won three back, keen but still chased home subs winner two back (beat The August home in process) and then slow to recover and caught in worst ground last start. J Mac on. Concern is gate 2 at this time of the day? Are they getting wide?

Other runners:

3.Handfast ($33)- Finished behind Grimoire and The August two back and just fair latest. 1074 DLW and prefer others.

5.Laszlo ($26)- Missed start and WNC latest but faded. Didn’t kick prior when leading. Needs to lift. Should lead again here.

6.Redemption Road ($16)- Good win in tight finish with 61kg but form/ figures from race just fair. Has won 3/6 here though and ¾ this distance. Also drops 4kg.

10.Professor Marx ($10)- Drops in weight bit last two starts form out of those races have been average (7 subs st 0 placings latest). 512 DLW but has won a heavy track in past.

Race 7

Overview: I liked Sea Spirit as a good roughie here but he has been scratched and will be saved for another day. Amangiri looks the logical top pick and she looks the horse going places. She is yet to tick that wet track box though.

Advice: Amangiri on top but short enough all the same considering she is unproven in wet ground.

Selections: 9-3-1-12

9.Amangiri ($2.20)- Made two runs and still QL200 of race latest. Looks an Oaks type. Chased home subs Canberra Guineas winner prior. Wet track the ?

3.Be Mindful ($6.50)- Building a good record winning last 2. Last start win better than it looked when overcoming slow tempo to score. 1st to 4th around the bend finished 2nd to 5th and he came from 5th un run. 1600m looks natural progression now.

1.Invicta ($11)- Last two runs solid. Good win two back at Newcastle and then chased home subs city placegetter latest. Loves wet tracks, it’s just whether 60.5kg and inside draw against this time of day?

12.The Iron Maiden ($14)- Last 3 runs over unsuitable trips. 1600m is starting to get into right range. Wetter the better and want them swooping wide. Needs it bottomless.

Other runners:

5.Stryke Rock ($17)- Beat home Mr Dependable LS but L600 of race was slow so entitled to finish off. Beaten 11L only heavu run but won S5. Wet form mixed.

6.China Gale ($35)- Stuck to task fup. Has won at mile before but well held 3 heavy/soft runs.

7.Greenspan ($27)- Entitled to run on two back and too good last start but beat little and risking. Placed heavy track but that was 2nd in field of 3!

8.Fui San ($20)- Good win latest but entitled to finish off and win off strong speed all the same (two winners out of race). Back go mile. Won S5 but other wet form just fair.

10.Carluca ($23)- On the inside (worst part of track latest) but had a few chances of late? Has won at this track.

11.Sensacova ($17)- Ran on well last two. Beaten by Invicta two back. Soft 5/6 form OK, worse and a ?

 

Race 8

Overview: Tough race. Allcash was wide last start and we know he likes wet ground. He is as good a chance as any of these. Californiafirebird had to make two runs last start and gets another chance. Makdanife gets his right set up (wet track at 2100m), while Foreign Territory, Wine Bush, Shuffle Up and even Magic Over The Bay are all capable.

Advice: Slight leaning to Allcash but little between these!

Selections: 5-4-8-2

5.Allcash ($7)- Only won 3/49 but going OK. Pulled up lame two back forgive and then 3WNC with a strong speed LS and still almost won. Better horse on wet track. JmAC picks over Wine Bush? Wants a staying test.

4.Californiafirebird ($7)- Was pretty good last start. Had to make two runs after trapped wide in forward position early. Went back and ran on (slow l600 for race). Ticked 2400m box and now back to 2100 should be OK. Should have won on S6 earlier this prep. Wasn’t rails in run LS and being so was a big adv so that’s another plus.

8.Makdanife ($9)- Well held behind Foreign Territory LS but that was a dry track, he gets a 3kg swing in weights on that horse, he gets to 2100m (2 of his 3 wins at this trip) and he gets a wet track (all three wins wet ground). I can’t rule him out.

2.Foreign Territory ($7)- Took a sit this prep. Last start finished well to score in slow L600 figure though. Wet track should be no issue being by Tavistock. First crack 2100m. Won S6 Mdn.

Other runners:

1.Plaisir ($31)- 1ST crack 2100m and was OK last start without getting carried away with. Will he run trip/ Gets back. Wet track form is better than it looks. 2nd to Bobbing on a wet track one day.

3.Wine Bush ($8.50)- First two runs of prep both good and then had 60.5kg loomed and knocked up LS. Wet track should be OK. J Mac off to ride Allcash?Placed 2400/2700 but 2 wins at 1800 and below.

6.Free Fly Too ($15)- Ran on OK last two starts but entitled to due to slow L600.Placed 1100m Mdn on s7.

7.Shuffle Up ($8)-Right part of track last start but stuck on behind a potential Derby horse. Nice tickover trial on S7 since where he found the line. First crack at 2100m.

9.Shaman ($13)- Overraced LS so blinkers coming off should suit. Doubt he is going well enough.

10.Momentum To Win ($94)- Has struggled on wet ground in past.

11.Magic Over The Bay ($27)-Recent form says no but last two races have been off month break and 6 week break. One thing about her is she is a proven wet tracker, proven at 2100m (won twice at this trip) and she gets in with 51-50kg. Place roughie perhaps.



Brad Davidson - Sky Racing

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Sky Racing Brad Davidson Hawkesbury preview tips March 20

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