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Sky Racing Brad Davidson Randwick Kensington preview tips April 3

 Apr 2 2019

Randwick Kensington

March 3

Rail out 3m

History 3m rail

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6          F7              F8          F9

17/10/2018       Kens      3m        S5-6      Most winners on pace but tempo related early- Pretty fair this track- wider later on                                         

21/12/2018       Kenso    3m        S5          Played fair re lanes but on pace here. Only one winner further back than second on settling                                                  

6/02/2019         Kens      3m        G4         Very fair track this. Could win from anywhere                        

Assessment- Perhaps touch on pace but could be fair as well.

Betting strategy *** More bets could be added in morning

Race 4 no.5 Dame Kiri 10 unit win at $3.80

Race 5 no.1 What Could Be 10 unit place at $4.60

Race 5 no.4 Budderoo Knight 5 unit place tote

Race 7 no.2 Calculated 5 unit win at $8.50

Race 7 no.5 Valentino Rossa 12 unit place at $8

5 unit early quaddie (starts r1, 25%): 1st leg: 6,2. 2nd leg:7,10. 3rd leg: 6-1-5-2-8. 4th leg: 5.

15 unit quaddie (starts r5, 7.8%)- 1st leg: 8-1-2-4-10-5. 2nd leg: 7-10-11-1. 3rd leg: 2-8-10-5. 4th leg: 5-11.

Results for betting strategies for 2019 racing season (since Aug 1) so far: 598 units profit (12%POT, 4917 unit outlay).

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

 Preview

 

Race 1

Overview: I have to lean to Devachan and she was slow to recover first-up last prep and went far too hard in front. The winner of that race won at Warwick Farm on a Saturday the start after that. Deep Sea has trialled well but he seems to have a habit of getting his head up in the run. Famous can improve on firmer ground and Rammstein has trialled well enough.

Advice: Devachan on top but probably at her right price as well.

Selections: 6-2-4-5

6.Devachan- Started $1.90 on debut and finished second to Girls Are Ready who won at WF start after. Went too hard in front (7L quicker than 3yo race to 600). Slow to recover as well. Soft trial coming in.

2.Deep Sea- Closed off nicely in two trials including behind Lyre (3rd Golden Slipper since) in latest. Crossover noseband on and that would be to keep head down as wanted to get it up in two trials.

4.Famous- $26-$17 off back of a trial win in Pago Pago but finished down the trac there on the heavy 10. Worth another chance on drier?

5.Rammstein- Two soft trials- Showed speed/ under no pressure in first one. Average time latest. Betting.

Other runners:

1.Chariots Of Fire- Out the back in only trial and no impact.

3.Dr Kardo- Closed off well to win 1st trial and then no impact in second trial. Wide draw? Bowman on.

7.Dummy Run- Back in trip but looks as if wants further.

8.Lombardia- Out back in teo trials but closed off solidly latest in slow time/L600.

9.Shining Eagle- Scratched. Only 1 short course trial this time in. Closed off well to finish second althoygh it was the slowest heat of the morning.

10.Everjust- Jumped well got back on debut in December and never featured. Can park closr good draw here. Likely improver. No public trials this time in?  

Race 2

Overview: Not a lot between Pinup Miss and Word For Word and I’ll lean Pinup Miss’ way at the price. I think she is the better horse and she just needs to get across into a spot early from the draw. Word For Word trialled up well and should lead and prove hard to catch.

Advice: Looks a two horse race and I’m leaning to Pinup Miss at the better price.

Selections: 7-10-8-5

7.Pinup Miss ($2.85)- 11.62 QL200 of the race first up behind subs winner Fasika. 4th also won since out of race and 5th/7th runner up soince. Lovely tickover trial since. Blinkers on- closer?

10.Word For Word ($2.85)- Won recent WF trial by 3L in good fashion. Rolls forward. Not far away in three runs last prep in races that produced multiple winners. McEvoy on.

8.Savigne ($10)- Soft trial. 1900-1300 off a freshen up. Likely to drift back and find the line. Had a few chances.

5.Georgina Gold ($15)- Led trial, given crack with whip at 200m and stuck on there. Not far away two runs last prep. Form and time of LS effort at KG not flash.

Other runners:

1.Brilliance Squared ($59)- Trials just OK. Needs to lift on last prep.

2.Disco Mo ($39)-Caught on wrong part track first-up but that was a weak race. Needs to lift.

3.Geissler ($120)- Hard to have off trials and 3 runs to date.

4.Haunting Spirit ($59)- OK at Goulburn but race was run slower than B58 overall despite 12L quicker to 600m.

6.Lady Legend ($39) Closed off solidly two trials this time in. Well beaten two runs last prep?

9.Stella Maris-Scratched.R/up at $101 at Ncle fresh. Time was slowest of 4 x 1200m races on day by 1.3s.

Race 3

Overview: Very tough but good race. Not much between Traumatised (super first-up and should get a good run again), Pupper Master (blinkers on race day and should lead and prove hard to catch), Goldfinch (beat Puppet Master in a recent trial and won first-up last prep), The Tenor (disappointing first-up but stakes placed last prep!) and November Man (bolted in easy race fresh but with 60kg and has been competitive in midweek grade in the past).

Advice: Not much between these.

Selections: 6-1-5-2.

6.Traumatised ($5.50)- Got a nice run off strong speed and far too good. Sets up same here. Time .8s quicker mdn first-up. Won three straight now.

1.Puppet Master ($6)- 2 trials good especially latest with blinkers on when he went straight to front and was far too nippy for his rivals. Blinkers on again race day. Should find the front and be hard to catch. Won fup 900m Ncle last time in. 59.5kg the leveller. Prefer dry?

5.The Tenor ($6)- Entitled to run on first-up but didn’t/ Tongue Tie again (did he choke down?). Stakes placed last prep.

2.Goldfinch ($7)- Two trials- Beat Pupper Master in latest trial (PM no blinkers). Won fup 1050m NMW last prep at Doomben. Capable/ Prefer dry.

Other runners:

3.Sir Donald ($15)- Soft trial- Former Greg Eurell- Hasn’t won for 664 days or 9 starts. Gets back. Only 2L off first up 1000m Flem last prep?

4.Mossman Gorge ($11)- Not best part of the track LS but stuck on OK. Had chance prior R Witness. Won first-up against StarvOf The Seas who just found 1000m too shirt.

7.Consider It Done ($11)- WNC first-up but only one turn and gets 2.5kg swing on Traumatised. Is it enough? Doubt it.

8.November Man ($7.50)- Bolted in with 60kg first-up! Didn’t beat much but did it well. Competitive in town last prep. Mixes form.

Race 4

Overview: Dame Kiri looks the one on the up and she is bred to appreciate 1400m (her mum won over 2400m). Sure Knee gives them a start but I loved her recent trial and she looks the danger. Galway Girl runs on, while Red Chandelier will find this much easier than the Epona Stakes.

Advice: Leaning To Dame Kiri but the value has gone now as she has been $6-$3.70.

Selections: 5-1-7-6-4

5.Dame Kiri ($3.60)- Yet to miss a top three finish in seven starts to date. Won two of three this prep and second to Malea Magic when nothing in it. Q 4 x 1200m races latest and draws well enough. First crack 1400m but mum won over 2400m.

1.Sure Knee ($3.80)- Lovely trial coming in. Beat Bring The Magic last prep and prior to that was 3WNC. Looks horse to beat but does she gets a fair way back from gate? Track pattern?

7.Galway Girl ($7.50)- Closed off nicely to runs this prep. Slow tempo against LS. Bumped into potential city horse last start. Only win came soft track.

6.Red Chandelier ($10)- Won WF 1400m two back on soft 5 where first two gapped rest. Time wasn’t great and Bubbles’n’troubles has been disappointing since. WNC and outclassed in Epona latest..

4.Lady Evelyn ($12)- Resuming no trials. Did win B70 Rhill 1900m last prep. Won fup 1280 at Muswellbrook two preps back. Betting?

Other runners:

2.Gentle Annie ($36)- Covered ground first-up Albury. Wins at Sapphire Coast and Nowra last prep. I doubt that’s strong enougj for this.

3.Zourhea ($16)- Beat Bring The Magic three back but two runs since have been poor? Needs to lift on those. 1600 back to 1400m.

8.Seeblume ($24)- Fair in Country Champs Qualifier. Fair in Canberra trial since then. Does she want further now?

9.Nechmiya ($36)- Brokethrough mdn win last star and overall time 2L quicker than Galway Girl on day but that was because she went 9l quicker to 600m. Hence, performance of Galway Girl was much better IMO. Prefer others.

Race 5

Overview: Vedder is the horse to beat and he beats Chabreet in another stride last start. The time was identical to the benchmark 72 on the same day and he draws well. There are some decent roughies here. What Could Be is a terrific place chance and was on the wrong part of the track last start. Budderoo Knight goes well fresh and he has won 2 of his past 3 fresh runs albeit at Moruya. He is a good place chance here. Phoebe’s Lass is hard to catch but I’ll throw her in my quaddie as well. Definitely risking Colombina and she looks unders.

Advice: Vedder the horse to beat but I’m happy to play What Could Be the place and something small the place on Budderoo Knight as well.

Selections: 8-1-2-4-10-5-9

8.Vedder ($3.90)- Worked early fresh and knocked up. Beats Chabreet in another stride LS.Identical time tio B72 LS. Draws well, rides the speed.

1.What Could Be ($11)- Really good when too short fresh, good again second up from back, worst part of track third-up. Wants it dry. Claim helps. How is fence now?

2.Common Purpose ($9)- Won first-up, peaked on run second up and got in bumping battle at 250m LS and didn’t finish off after. Month between runs. 61kg and gate 13 with some speed inside.

4.Budderoo Knight ($15)- Won 2 of past 3 first-up runs at Moruya. Prefers it dry. Drawn well, box seats. Solid prep last time in.

10.Tony’s Reward ($9)- Two nice trials- One WNC on speed and the other off speed. 2/4 wins overall have come first-up. It’s uust how that Bathurst, Orange form translates.

5.The Lion ($16)- Set up for him two back and then had his chance when winner gave him 5kg last start. Grows a leg in the wet!

9.Phoebe’s Lass ($28)- 40 DLR. No luck LS and held up until bird had flown. This looks stronger. Mixes form. Has won at this track before though.

Other runners:

3.Crafty Tycoon ($16)- Month between runs- Circled and won Wyong- Beart Come Along last start 1.5L and meet same weight scale. Tickover trial. 60.5kg, gate 12 but gets back anyway.

6.Come Along ($21)- Circled early and knocked up late v Crafty Tycoon then gun run and too good latest. Now gate 10 but Bowman on. Last race 5L slower Open race on day.

7.Dashley Dubh ($49)-Beaten 3.5L by Come Along first-up and second up record not great, wants it firmer than LS soft 7.

11.Quick Finance ($29)- Showed speed in trial and stuck on. Would need to lift from last prep.

12.Colombia ($16)- Overraced a bit last start but still disapp. Just missed first up in weak form race and figures wise soft as well.

13.Regal Stage ($11)- Scratched. Not far off three back Rhill but on right part of track (big advantage rails in run). WNC two back and then had chance latest. Back on dry would help.

R6

Overview: Pretty open race this. Host of chances.

Advice: Tough race! Milsean has been $14-$7.50 so respecting that move and her figures from last start are actually solid albeit against a weak field.

Selections: 7-10-11-1

7.Milsean ($8)-Bolted in LS as should have in Cl1 Muswellbrook. OK in Prov Qualifier prior. Wants it wet.

10.Boomtown Rat ($6)- Good win two back Canterbury and then ran on looking for 1800m latest. Wet would help. Bowman on.

11.Screamarr ($5.50)- Hasn’t won for 573 days now but two runs back both really good. Gets to 1800 (placed Frank Packer Plate 2000m earlier in career). Wet, dry fine.

1.King Tomlola ($6)- Good winner here two back although 7 subs starters out of that for 0 placings. Too wet for him LS and 61kg didn’t help. Drier helps. Can overrace.

Other runners:

2.Braces ($14)- Good win home track on wet ground LS but was WNC. Form prior avg. Now 1800- won 1900 and 2100m in opast.

3.Green Sweet ($23)- Gets a 4.5kg swing in weights on KT from two starts ago (2 3/4 L behind him). OK in Canberra Cup latest. 739 DLW now.

4.Smart As You Think ($9)- Won 2 from 35- OK in Epona on preferred conditions. Wants rain.

5.Electric Charlie- Scr.

6.King Viv ($56)- Lame LS but just fair two runs prior. Month between runs now.

8.Raqeeq ($11)- Wrong part of track first-up but was never in it. Showed good ability last prep in stronger races. Wants firmer. Gets back.

9.Fireman Sam I Am ($37)- Had chance last two starts and needs to lift.

12.Bajan Gold ($14)- Solid off slow tempo first up in Aus at Canterury and then too wet LS. McEvou rides over Boomtown Rat perhaps? 1900 back to 1800,

12.Foreign Territory ($11)- Scratched, Struggled at 2100m LS so back to 1800m here. Won this t/d two back (beating 3 subs winner) and 2/3 at this track. Short enough all the same.

14.Californiafirebird ($20)- Scratched.Big run two back (made two runs) and then too wet perhaps last start. 2400-2100 and now 1800?

15.Righteouseness ($18)- Scratched.Good first-up for further and then cardiac arrythmia second up. Tickover trial OK since. Good place chance.

16. Greenspan ($53)- Scratched. Needs to lift.

Chief Kidder ($53)- Scratched.

Race 7

Overview: Pretty even race although I do think the $8 a place is very appealing about Valentino Rossa. His first-up record says no but his fresh run behind Manolo Blahniq first-up last prep was a beauty. Calculated has been crying out for a firmer track and he is over the odds to find out where he is at off a long breal. Grimoire, Pumpkin Pie, Quackerjack (gelded) are all capable, while Coterie would win this at his best but was disappointing last start?

Advice: Main play Valentino Rossa to place + small win bet Calculated.

Selections: 2-8-10-5-6-7

2.Calculated ($7.50)- Too wet for him first-up and trialled well since. Rolls forward and should improve on dry. Savatiano/Pierata form going back 2017-18. 2nd up long break.

8.Grimoire ($6)- Good win on H9 LS when well backed. Inferior grond prior. Wet/dry OK and gets in well after the claim.

10.Coterie ($6)- Blinkers again, winkers off. No excuses in Canberra Guineas where very disappointin. Form prior super for a race like this. Blinkers went on last time when 4th to Fiesta. Runs up to that, horse to beat.

5.Valentino Rossa ($15)- 2 trials solid. Yet to place 5 first-up attempts but fresh record not as bad as look on paper. 4th Manolo Blahniq 1300 Rhill first up last prep. Firmer track wanted. Can flash late.

6.Pumpkin Pie ($8)- Nice eye catching trial. Best run last prep 1600m but did pull up lame fup. 773 DLW and 14 runs since last in.

7.Quackerjack ($11)- Gelded- tongue tie on. Two trials- Showed speed to lead latest and kept on. No luck first up last prep- Would love a wet track. Gate 1, can be handy.

Other runners:

1.Lead Choreographer ($63)- Trials just fair and first-up for a year here for new stable. Wait for improvement.

3.Old Man Sam ($31)- Held up first-up had chance second-up. Needs to lift.

4.Semper Fidelis ($25)- First up no trials. Won Mdn 1300m first-up last prep at Hawkesbury. Drawn well. May want further? Wet track would help.

9.Tahsin ($42)- Pretty soft trial leading in. All 5 x wins at 1600m. Wait for further?

11.Ombudsman ($25)- Best work last 200m when closed 8th at Rhill first up last prep 1400m. 1300m too short? Will be working home.

12.Restrained ($8)- 3/3- Speed on and l600 slow overall last start in race where 3rd/4th/7th/10th all well held since. Unbeaten but this is much tougher.

13.Handfast ($20)- Scratched. Gave sight in front LS but 1088 days and 29 starts since last win.

14.Level Eight ($21)- Scratched. Good behind a smart one resuming then caught in inferior grund LS. Wet/dry OK. Only won 3/32.

15.Primitivo ($14)- Scratched,Soft trial behind Redzel, then won latest trial 1200m. Won Mdn first-up Newcastle last prep and yet to miss a place fresh. T Tie first tie.

16.C’Est Davinchi ($11)- Scratched,Closed off in trial- Two wins at 1550m last prep so may want a tough further especially from gate.

17.Catmosphere ($80)- Scratched.Prefer others.

18.Night Falls ($30)- Scratched. Doubt he gets a run.

Race 8

Overview: Not a lot between Ligulate and Full Recognition here. Ligulate has stronger form lines but can he reproduce on drier ground what he did last start? We don’t know where the ceiling is for Full Recognition yet and he is on the up. They look the main two. Be Mindful pulled up lame last start and could be over the odds.

Selections: 5-11-10-9

5.Ligulate ($4)- Strong win third up on wet ground. Best Quadriga there. Time 6L quicker Red Chandelier on same day. Vega 3rd since, Red Currant won. Can he reproduce drier track? Best part.

11.Full Recognition ($4)- bumped into Classique Legend and Green Aeon first two starts- then far too good Newc in avg figures- 3 subs winners out of race two back- 5th won as well. Beat 1st starter and horse beaten 3 1/2L mdn prior LS. Tougher naturally.

7.Be Mindful ($15)- Scratched. won 2 straight mdn/Cl1 and then failed heavy lastvstart. Overcame slow tempo two back to score. Gets back.

10.California Concord ($11)- loomed and knocked up fresh. Good run. Now 35 days between runs and extra 100m? Won mdn second up last prep but 2 weeks gap.

9.Quadriga ($13)- sat outside leader and outclassed Autumn Stakes- inferior ground and may not have handled wet track latest. Firmer helps.

Other runners:

1.Bring A Secret -Scratched, just fair last 2 starts. Needs to lift.

2.Night Falls ($25)- 2 trials ok.t tie off.Placed mdn’s 2 fresh runs 1200m. Would prefer wet.

3.Magicalease ($41)-$61-$31 fup jumped ok got back and never ran on in inferior ground. Trials OK prior. 2nd up off long break now. Firmer track would help.

4.Pelorus Jack ($45)- 2 trials, closed off first one but overraced and ran last second trial. Looked and knocked up fup last prep and then overraced and didn’t finish off LS before freshmen

6.Obelos ($11)- well backed early and was a bit keen when knocked up to run 6th.that was heavy track first up. Better for that and must respect the early money.

8.Nacho Libre ($22)- 2 trials OK- won fup 3 preps back at Goulburn against 5 rivals- better with a run last two preps first up. Placed twice soft 7 but all wins good track

12.Volpe ($38)- just battled first up but winner won by 6L. 2 of 4 wins second up just gets back gate. Wants firm.

13.Regal Stage ($15)-Not far off three back Rhill but on right part of track (big advantage rails in run). WNC two back and then had chance latest. Back on dry would help.

14.Agassi ($55)- Scratched. Solid in good rating race last start. Last two starts heavy and now good track?

15.Time Raid ($110)- Scratched. WNC first-up and stuck on well first-up but figures just fair, 6 subs st 3 placings but weaker races.

16.Speed Hero ($38)- get back type who runs on.

17.Lord Herron- Scratched.

 



Brad Davidson - Sky Racing

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