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Sky Racing Brad Davidson Randwick preview tips April 20

 Apr 19 2019

Randwick April 20

Best bet

Race 6 no.1 Castelvechio $3.90 (rated $3.10)

Next best

Race 4 no.4 Into The Abyss $4 (rated $3.50)

Best each-way

Race 8 no.10 Trekking $8 and $2.10 place (rated $6)

Best roughie

Race 9 no.12 Salsonic $31 and $8 place (rated $15)

 

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less. A few more bets on most occasions will be included here to spread the risk across a race day.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

More of an explanation of this method in the article prior to this one on the Sky Racing website labelled betting strategy.

 

Normal strategy (100 unit spend this week)

Race 3 no.5 Carif 5 unit win at $10

Race 3 no.9 Greysful Glamour 2 unit win at $16 and 3 unit place at $3.70

Race 4 no.4 Into The Abyss 15 unit win at $4

Race 6 no.1 Castelvechio 20 unit win at $3.90

Race 7 no.6 D’Bai 10 unit win at at $5.50

Race 8 no.10 Trekking 5 unit win at $8 and 10 unit place at $2.10

Race 9 no.12 Salsonic 5 unit each-way at $31 and $8

5 unit multi (price of $10.47)- Race 4 no.4 Into The Abyss to place ($1.75) into Race 6 no.1 Castelvechip to place ($1.50) into Race 7 no.6 D’bai to place ($1.90) into Race 8 no.10 Trekking to place ($2.10)

15 unit quaddie (starts r6, 6.7%)- 1st leg: 1,9,4,10. 2nd leg: 6,2. 3rd leg: 10,2,4,9. 4th leg: 12,16,6,5,17,3,8.

Results for betting strategy: 1st week!

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

 

The long game strategy (total spend so far- 2.75 units)

Race 4 no.4 Into The Abyss 0.5 unit win at $4

Race 6 no.1 Castelvechio 1 unit win at $3.90

Race 8 no.10 Trekking 0.25 unit win at $8 and 0.5 unit place at $2.10

Race 9 no.12 Salsonic 0.25 unit win at $31 and 0.25 unit place at $8

Results for betting strategy: 1st week!

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Randwick Preview April 20

Track position: Randwick rail out 6m- good track expected

Randwick track history with rail out 6m

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9

5/02/2017         Rand     6m        G4         Fair maybe 5 off fence best but OK                                             

10/03/2018       Rand     6m        F2-g3    Played really quick don't think hard fence was place to be but still could make some ground                                                    

21/04/2018       Rand     6M        g3          Fast TRACK on pace early and then could make ground. Pretty solid track. On pace favoured naturally                                          

23/06/2018       Rand     6m        h9         Tough to make ground from a long way back- out wide slight adv but could win closer too.                                              

6/10/2018         Rand     6m        H9         Very fair track this- touch on pace early but could win from anywhere, fence, out wide etc                                            

29/12/2018       Randwick           6m        G4              Pretty fair track. Fence no disadv first 5 races                                                      

2/03/2019         Rand     6M        G4         Few off fence best ground here suiting run on. Fence not best place but not massively inferior                        

Assessment: Seems to be a pretty fair rail position with a few off the fence generally the best place.

Wind: Gentle.

 

Race 1- TAB Highway Handicap (1200m, Class 3 Handicap, 12pm)

Overview: This looks a real target race for Amorita who won well first-up in the country in good figures and has been kept for this since. She gets 7.5kg off Al Mah Haha and that could be the difference in the end. Al Mah Haha was a genuine chance in the Country Championships Final before being scratched at the gates. His win when three wide without cover in the qualifier was outstanding and he did beat Noble Boy home that day. Concrete has been running time from the front and he should bowl along and prove hard to catch, while Gold Touch produced good figures first-up and just has to reproduce that now to be competitive.

Advice: Amorita on top here and looks the horse to beat. Respecting 9,1,8.

Confidence rating on race: 6/10.

Selections: 5-9-1-8

5.Amorita ($3.10)- Nice win first-up where she had The Drake covered easily and clocked the QL600 on the day in the process. Looks a target race since then. Right stable. Hard to beat. Nice soft trial GC since.

9.Concrete ($5)- 6L quicker 1000m MDN last start where led and even clocked QL200 of race.  3rd quickest of day too and QL600 of day. 7L quicker B50 start prior when won mdn by 10L. Can he extend to 1200m? Did place 1300-1400m earlier preps.

1. Al Mah Haha ($5)- 3WNC and won Country Champs Qualifier defeating Noble Boy in process. Missed Country Champs final when scratched at gates. 1400m back to 1200m the knock. 62kg the leveller but carries weight and he is a momentum horse.

8.Gold Touch ($10)- QL800,600,400 and 200m of day first-up and figures were good. Clear peak and was $41? Can she reproduce?

Other runners: 2. Star Shaft ($17), 3. The Drake ($14), 7. Philadora ($28), 10. Prince Jacko ($43), 11. Glamour Cruise ($57), 12. Scorching ($57), 14 Zariz No Other ($300)

 

Race 2- Ranvet Power Formula Sprint (1200m, Benchmark 88, 12.35pm)

Overview: Open race this and I didn’t want to spend too long on it as a result. I liked Tribal Wisdom at first glance but I thought we would be getting better than $5.50. He is the hardest to beat. Top Striker could be worth a speck at odds. I know he is not really a fresh horse but he has trialled particularly well leading in and he has fresh legs here. The market could tell the story with him after the yard (only one trial?). Problem Solver, Maximus (too bad to be true LS) and Echo Effect (should get home late) all run well. Tough race!

Advice: Tribal Wisdom the horse to beat, Top Striker the value. Tough race!

Confidence rating on race: 3/10.

Selections: 2-9-12-6

2.Tribal Wisdom ($5.50)- Too wet first-up off a long break but he stuck to his task. Loved the way he closed off in a trial since. Sits off them here and back onto dry deck good chance. 2nd up last prep stiff not to win at Rosehill. They walked and he reeled off 2nd ql200 of day to go close. McEvoy on, up in weight but down in grade.

9.Top Striker ($12)- Not a renowned fresh horse in recent preps but he trialled up particularly well and likes it at Randwick. Market could tell the story with him?

12.Problem Solver ($7)- Trialled up nicely. No luck fresh last prep behind Maximus and was in the thick of things in solid races last prep. Gate the query but JMac on.

6. Maximus ($12)- Too bad to be true last start and no luck the run prior. Good fresh although in weak form race.

Other chances:

4.Echo Effect ($18)- Will give them a start but two runs in Qld last prep good and if he can get into a rhythm he might run into a place.

13.Murillo ($10)- Trials have been solid (thought Tribal Wisdom was better than him in latest trial). Form overseas is mixed.

15.Noble Joey ($20)- WNC first-up and can bob up when you least expect it.

Other runners: 1. Tougherthantherest ($285), 3. Test The World ($12), 5. Man From Uncle ($12), 7. No Doubt ($36), 8. Passage Of Time ($14), 14. Chapelco ($47), 17 Phuket ($71)

 

Race 3- Group 3 Frank Packer Plate (2000m, 1.10pm)

Overview: Pretty open Frank Packer Plate. Carif has been $16 into $9 so the value has pretty much gone now but his run, sectionally, was right up there with Madison County last start and he finished second in the Derby since. The winner of the Tulloch won the Derby and he was very good from the back. Amangiri runs well from the front again, while Greysful Glamour might just jump out of the ground here back onto a dry track with the blinkers on.

Advice: Carif and Greysful Glamour the small overs.

Confidence rating on race: 6.5/10

Selections: 5-9-11-1.

5. Carif ($7)- Bolted in Ncle Mdn and then late splits very good Tulloch which produced 1-2 in Derby since. Ql200 OF Tulloch and 2nd quickest l200 of day. Can he reproduce that dry? Mdn win two back 2L slower B70. Progressing.

9.Greysful Glamour ($14)- Good roughie back on dry. Good first-up in the Light Fingers, WNC in the Surround second-up stuck wet tracks last two. Blinkers again, can run a race here. 2nd to Aristia last prep.

11. Amangiri ($3.50)- Caught late in the Adrian Knox but that form has stacked up OK (winner Aliferous 4th in the Oaks since). Better for the run at 2000m and drier won’t hurt.

1.The Chosen One ($6.50)- Big from the back in the Derby and now comes 2400m on a heavy track back to 2000m on a good track. Strong late in what looked a weak G2 two back in NZ Shuffled back and no luck in NZ Derby, taken on 800m from home in Avondale Guineas prior. In right stable.

Other chance:

2. Dealmaker ($6.50)- Seemed a bit disappointing in Carbine Club but figures in race were super/ Only .1s slower than Doncaster overall. Back to 2000m now (can be a bit keen?). Only one win 12 starts.

Other runners: 3. Purple Sector ($28), 4. Fun Fact ($40), 6. Home Win ($90), 7. Blast ($271), 8. Watch The Cat ($45), 10. House Of Cartier ($20), 12. On The White Turf ($18)

 

Race 4- Group 3 JHB Carr Stakes (1400m, 1.45pm)

Overview: A few questions on a few of these runners but the favourite seems pretty bullet proof in that regard. She has come back really well this prep and put the writing on the wall at the trials. It was too wet for her fresh but the second up run was a cracker and she can go one better here. Asharani and Eawase and genuine knockout hopes at odds here. The former drops from 59kg to 54kg and is two from two this prep (solid figures) and the latter did beat Into The Abyss home last prep and the wet track was against fresh. My Xpression was disappointing fresh but can also jump out of the ground. She has form around Avantage in NZ and is Group 1 placed over there.

Advice: Into The Abyss to win. Eawase and Asharani look overs at $12 too.

Confidence rating on race: 7/10.

Selections: 4-2-8-5

4. Into The Abyss ($3.50)- Looks to have really turned the corner this prep. Her trials coming in were super and it was just too wet for her first-up. The second-up run she looked the winner and just caught laete. Draws well, good track seems OK, yet to prove herself at 1400m (although stakes placed?). Well weighted.

2.Eawase ($9)- Trialled well and then got back and probably too wet fresh. Beat Into The Abyss home at Sandown last year at 1400m. Can improve sharply here.

8.Asharani ($7)- \ I know coming out of weaker grade but has been carrying 59kg against the boys. Quickest late splits of the day first-up and then good overall figures again LS. 2L quicker 1100 mdn.  Drops to 54kg here. 1100 to 1400m?

5.So Taken ($7.50)- Good off a freshen last start but I reckon she is better on wet ground? Also maps awkwardly here.

Other chance:

1.My Xpression ($13)- Almost too bad to be true first-up but her form over in NZ Is good. G1 placed and close second to Avantage who won forst-up in Sydney and then ran third in Arrowfield.

Other runners: 3. Fiera Vista ($45), 6. Laburnum ($17), 7. Ragazze ($45), 9. Etana ($12), 10. Jen Rules ($32), 11. She’s Furline ($50), 12. Major Wager ($50), 13. Alison Of Tuffy ($70)

 

Race 5-Group 3 JRA Plate (2000m, 2.20pm)

Overview: Tough race. Abdon looks over at $12 and his two runs back have both been good. He hasn’t found the best part of the track at either start but almost won the Doncaster Prelude. The step up to 2000m with a lightweight helps. Sheezdashing isn’t the worst here if she gets a run at $13. I know she has a poor winning strike rate but she finished a whisker off Our Libretto last start and did beat that horse home earlier this prep. One is $5.50 and the other is $13 here. Our Libretto and Haripour next best but this is a very open race.

Advice: Abdon looks value but many chances!

Confidence rating on race: 1/10.

Selections: 11-5-9-10

11.Abdon ($8.50): Looks over at $12 and his two runs back have both been good. He hasn’t found the best part of the track at either start but almost won the Doncaster Prelude. The step up to 2000m with a lightweight helps.

5.Haripour ($6.50)- Won the Golden Mile at Bendigo in solid figures. Step up in trip should suit here as does another good track.

9.Our Libretto ($6.50)- Good win at Caulfield last start in good figures. Well found though in an open race.

10. I’m A Princess ($10)-Runner up Epona Stakes LS and drier track shouldn’t be an issue.

Other chances: There are plenty! Very open race.

2. Libran ($14), 4. Sedanzer ($18), 13. Emperor’s Way ($21), 14. The Grey Lion ($23).

Other runners: 1. Moss N Dale ($31), 3. My Nordic Hero ($25), 6. Taikomochi ($21), 7. McCreery ($41), 15. Goathland ($31), 17. All Too Soon ($31)

 

Race 6-Group 1 Champagne Stakes (1600m, 2.55pm)

Overview: I like Castelvechio here and I reckon he should be closer to Loving Gabby in the market here. I know they went hard in the Sires but he was going straight past Loving Gabby all the same and then condition just gave way that last 100m off a 4 week break up in trip. He is half sister has won a Spring Champion over 2000m and he can settle a length or two closer here up in trip. Loving Gaby must be respected but seems too short, Fortress Command and Lady Lupino look good roughies.

Advice: Castelvechio the gamble of the day. Fortress Command/ Lady Lupino good roughies.

Confidence rating on race: 8/10.

Selections: 1-9-4-10

1.Castelvechio ($3.10)- I reckon he should be closer to Loving Gabby in the market here. I know they went hard in the Sires but he was going straight past Loving Gabby all the same and then condition just gave way that last 100m off a 4 week break up in trip. He is half sister has won a Spring Champion over 2000m and he can settle a length or two closer here up in trip. I have him shorter. 22 of the past 30 Champagne winners have come through the Sires, 16 of those winners filling a quinella in Sires’- It’s even better the last two decades- 18 of the past 20 Champagne winners have had their previous start in the Sires’- Stats courtesy of Brad Bishop (@bradbishop12).

9.Loving Gaby ($3.60)- Came again late in the Sires and she is a beauty. The knock I have is the price? I know her mum was effective over 2000m but she is also by I Am Invincible and $2.30 seems a bit skinny with a ? mark over the mile. Has the A-grade form line though. 22 of the past 30 Champagne winners have come through the Sires, 16 of those winners filling a quinella in Sires’- It’s even better the last two decades- 18 of the past 20 Champagne winners have had their previous start in the Sires’- Stats courtesy of Brad Bishop (@bradbishop12).

4.Fortress Command ($10)- Big maiden win at Newcastle although set up for him to swoop that day (had Bullet Fly covered comfortably there and that horse beat Persan next start, ties in there). Liked him on the wet track LS Rosehill on a day where it was hard to make ground. Blinkers on and trialled well with them on.

10.Lady Lupino ($10)- What to make of this filly? Her form was average and she wasn’t finishing off her races and then last start, wow. She beat Chenier fair and square there and ran time too. If she reproduces at a mile she is a big chance, query is can she?

Against: Those that come through the Fernhill. They walked but overall the race didn’t rate well and too many horses with little form ran well there. Having said that, the market seems to have caught on as well.

Other runners: 2. Power Scheme ($27), 3. Vinco ($33), 5. War Baron 9$82), 6. Dawn Too Good ($300), 7. Persan ($32), 8. Prince Fawz ($54), 11. Crystal Falls ($16), 12. Chia ($30)

 

Race 7- Group 1 All Aged Stales (1400m, 3.35pm)

Overview: I’m with the Charlie Appleby import in D’Bai and he presents with fresh legs. He beat Mythical Magic by almost 2L last start in Dubai and that horse has won a Group 2 by 3L since. He beat Comin’ Through 4.5L in the process and he has form around Limato and he is a very good sprinter. The mail out of Canterbury for this horse is quite strong as well and jockey Kerrin McEvoy gave him a good report this week. I doubt Osborne Bulls was on the best part of the track last start and he can bounce back here. Pierata also has claims but his best runs have been on wet ground in the past year.

Advice: D’Bai to win but naturally I’m scared of Osborne Bulls.

Confidence rating on race: 6.5/10.

Selections: 6-2-3-11

6.D’Bai ($4.60)- Comes with a big rap from overseas. Beat Mythical Magic by almost 2L last start and that horse has won a Group 2 by 3L since. Beat Comin’ Through 4.5L in the process. Has form around Limato and he is a very good sprinter. The mail out of Canterbury for this horse is quite strong as well and McEvoy gave him a good report this week. Can be a bit keen the query but I sense confidence in the stable. Comes here with fresh legs when the rest have been running on wet tracks. Dry track a big tick.

2.Osborne Bulls ($3.30)- Not on the best ground in the TJ and looked as if he was going to win for mine at 350m and then didn’t go on last 200m. 1400m OK, dry track OK and his sectionals at two runs prior were very, very good. Gate 1 the concern, he doesn’t like being bottled up and needs room to move.

3.Pierata ($7)- Tad disappointing in TJ but run in Galaxy was outstanding. Best ratings last year have been on wet tracks the knock? 1400m seems OK.

11. Youngstar ($16)- Seems to have been held back for the winter perhaps? Trials solid and she was climbing all over their backs first-up last prep over 1400m in the Tramway. Should have the flashing light on again.

Other chances:

5.Malaguerra ($16)- Such a hard horse to catch. Was good behind Alizee in the Futurity and pulled up with the thumps there too. Chance if he can reproduce but his form is patchy.

Other runners: 1. Le Romain ($21), 7. Manuel ($16), 8. Siege Of Quebec ($36), 9. Lanciato ($20), 10. Fierce Impact ($164), 12. Champagne Cuddles ($16), 13. Siren’s Fury ($42), 14. Naantali ($82)

 

Race 8-Group 3 TAB Hall Mark Stakes (1200m, 4.15pm)

Overview: I don’t mind Trekking here at the $7.50 and I love the fact Godolphin have just held him back due to these wet tracks of late. It was too wet for him first-up but he looks ready to explode here and the $7.50 seems a good gamble. Home Of The Brave is the horse to beat but he seems under the odds at $1.95 for mine. I feel he is being priced on his Theo Marks win last prep. It was dominant but let’s not forget Trapeze Artist wasn’t wound up that day and D’Argento was looking for further. Will take some running down. Viridine was slow to recover last start and if he produces the sectionals he did first-up, he is right in this.

Advice: Trekking the value but I concede Home Of The Brave will take some running down and is a deserved favourite.

Confidence rating on race: 6/10.

Selections: 10-2-4-9

10.Trekking ($6)- Ran well first-up on an unsuitable heavy track but gee his trials prior were outstanding and although he was keen in the one after that, it was also good. Beaten by Brave Song once last prep but had no luck. He has beaten that horse home the other two times they’ve clashed. Drying track looks ideal. Parks just behind the speed.

2.Home Of The Brave ($2.60)- Trials have been good and beat all bar Voodoo Lad first-up last prep then won the Theo Marks in dominant fashion on a wet track. Should lead but seems short enough all the same?

4.Viridine ($8)- Very good fresh (quickest late splits of the day) although the form out of the Challenge has been poor (7 subs starters for 0 placings). Slow to recover on wet track in Galaxy after. Can bounce back dry track. Keen in tickover trial since but went better than Redouble.

9.Brave Song ($12)- Trialled up really well and he has been held back for dry tracks. Seems to be flying and the issue is where he gets to on the map. Runs well at double figures.

Other runners: 1. Music Magnate ($50), 3. Dothraki ($25), 5. Easy Eddie ($12), 8. Tyzone ($17), 11. Redouble ($25), 12. Camdus ($100), 13. Miss Que ($133)

 

Race 9- JCDECAUX Handicap (1400m, Benchmark 100, 4.55pm)

Overview: Tough way to finish. Salsonic is qorth a throw at the stumps at $23 each-way. Tricky gate to overcome but his sectionals were very good fresh, his trials since have been good and he may have turned a corner this prep. Dry track is a must. Star Of The Seas, Seaway (better back on dry), Sweet Scandal (huge show if she can lead and dictate) and Snitzon all in the quaddie.

Advice: Salsonic worth a speck small each-way.

Confidence rating on race: 4/10.

Selections: 12-16-6-5

12.Salsonic ($13)- Worth a throw at the stumps at $21 each-way. Tricky gate but his sectionals were very good fresh, his trials since have been good and he may have turned a corner this prep. Dry track is a must.

16.Star Of The Seas ($5)- Does he get a run? Racing in grand form and wet or dry doesn’t seem to really bother him. Gets in well at the weights again. On the up.

6.Seaway ($7)- Started $3.50 in a G2 last start where he didn’t handle the track. Form prior was good enough for this.

5. Snitzon ($14)- Has been building this prep and I liked his late work last start. Did run third in an Epsom at Randwick over a mile last spring.

Other chances:

17.Mahalungur ($7.50)- Raced a bit keen without cover last start and was too bad to be true. Will get cover here and can bounce back.

3.Snippets Land ($14)- Beat Flow comfortably at Canberra yet is double the price. Meets Salsonic 5kg worse off at the weights the knock.

8.Take It Intern ($10)- Trialled up well but seems short enough at $5.50! Expect to drift.

14.Sweet Scandal- Scratched. Tickover trial was solid and I love when she is able to find the front and dictate a race. Good chance to do that from the inside and with no weight on her back, she should go close.

Other runners: 2. Duca Valentinois ($44), 4. Flow ($20), 7. Special Missile ($25), 11. Get On The Grange ($176), 13. Up N Rolling ($18), 15. Live And Free ($22).



Brad Davidson - Sky Racing

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