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Sky Racing Brad Davidson Randwick preview tips April 25

 Apr 24 2019

Randwick April 25

Best

Race 7 no.1 Wolfe $1.75 (rated $1.60)

Blinkers 1st time- Two wins last time in were good in strong time. 3 trials left a bit to be desired this time in bit latest was better and that was firmest track in 3 trials. No blinkers on any of trials. 2 winners out of both races last prep plus host of placings. Leads and should win.

Rail out 9m (history rail out 9m)-

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6          F7              F8          F9

14/01/2017       Rand     9m        G4         On pace adv, fair, 3 wide ok.                                                  

24/04/2018       Rand     9M        g3          quick track but could make ground- If anything off fence to middle best but few winners still near fence too                                                 

7/07/2018         Rwick    9m        H8         Hard to lead and win (wind playedf factor) outside fence clearly best ground. Strong Westerly                                                                                 

12/01/2019       Randwick           9m        s6-G4    Pretty fair track this. Hard fence maybe .5L inferior but some horses sgtill ran well there                                   

Track assessment- Rail out at Randwick seems to suit horses out wider and away from the fence.

Wind: light.

Conditions: Track should be quick.

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less. A few more bets on most occasions will be included here to spread the risk across a race day.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

More of an explanation of this method in the article prior to this one on the Sky Racing website labelled betting strategy.

Normal strategy (spend so far this meeting is 40 units)

Race 1 no.1 Regent Street 5 unit win at $6.50

Race 3 no.10 Reloaded 7 unit win at $4.80

Race 7 no.2 Wolfe 28 unit win at $1.75

10 unit quaddie- 1st leg (starts r5, 15.6%): 3,5,6,1. 2nd leg: 5,4 3rd leg: 2. 4th leg: 4,13,11,8,10,3,9,2.

Results for betting strategy: 88 unit profit (49%POT, outlay 180 units)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

The long game strategy (spend so far 1.25 units)

Randwick

Race 7 no.2 Wolfe 1.25 unit win at $1.75 (rated $1.60)

Results for betting strategy: 107.1 units (7.1 unit profit, POT 114%, outlay 6.25 units)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices

Race 1

Overview: I think the market will tell the story with Regent Street but I tjink he has been pretty good at the trials. His latest trial was against older benchmark horses like Murillo and Tribal Wisdom and I liked that he was given a good hit out there. All his siblings are multiple winners and he could be worth a punt here especially if firm in the market. Amoreux was wide first-up but I still thought she was entitled to do a touch more. She has had a few chances and I just think she is short enough at $1.95. The figures out of the race weren’t strong.

Advice: Regent Street to win but late betting could tell the story.

Confidence rating of race: 5/10.

Selections: 1-3-7-6

1.Regent Street ($5.70)- Two trials have been solid heats- 4th Rwick first one and 2nd one with blinkers on third in open heat in good time over 1050m. Third behind Murillo and Tribal Wisdom there. Ridden along. Should park just behind speed with blinkers on race day. 4 sublings all multiple winners.

3.Amoreux ($2.40)- WNC off a freshen first up and stuck on. Race run slower than 2YO handicap off quicker early tempo concerns me but should have won a MDN last prep.

7.Zenardini ($8)- 2 trials 6th in both 1050m Randwick given a shaken up at some stage in both. Yet to place 5 starts but better than that. Bumped into Nakeeta Jane and had best late splits of race before a break. Better into prep?

6.Romantic Whisper ($8.50)- Figures last prep average but was OK first-up behind Got Your Six. Race time same as B70 on day but winner won by a Bit. Started $31 there?

Other runners:

2.The Golden Bear ($8.50)- 3 trials- Off speed closed nicely. 3rd 1200m WF latest and second one 3rd 1200m WF against McCreery and Salsonic. Pushed along latest two.

4.Disco Mo ($13)- Inf ground but weak race fresh, then jumped well, shuffled back and battled home but good form race. 5 of 7 subs runners top 3 in next start and time was OK. Blinkers on now.

5.Ivira-Scratched.Blinkers 1st time- Had a few chances and just fair last few. Beat home Romantic Whisper by 1.5L only clash Gosford Jan 30 last year (same weight scale).

Race 2

Overview: Looks a good race this and it’s hard to go past the favourite Libertini. She clocked the quickest last 800m, 600m, 400m, and 200m of the day first-up on the first day of The Championships at Randwick. That is huge for a two-year-old on debut. Gets back here but class should come to the fore. Tracy May has missed the start in both trials but did beat Flit in her latest trial. She looks the danger.

Advice: Hard to price this accurately with so many first starters. California Zimbol will probably make a meal of the start but $4.50+ a place about her could be appealing if she gets to that price.

Confidence rating of race: 6.5/10.

Selections:7-13-9-6

7.Libertini- Outstanding late splits first-up behind Bivouac. Clocked QL800,600,400 and 200 of day in amazing effort for 2yo. Draws wide but looks a smart horse on debut effort. Mum won a Coolmore Classic at 1500m.

13.Tracy May- Soft trial first one, second trial beat Flit (should have won Percy Sykes) who was under a hold. She wasn’t under much pressure herself. Problem is she has missed the start both trials. Mum is a half to Typhoon Tracy.

9.Our Girl Snitti- Wide on debut and stuck on really well in a good rating race although form out of race hasn’t been great (1 winner no placings, 11 subs st). Month between runs.

6.Gypsy Snitz- Showed solid speed two trials (esp 2nd one) pushed along and closed off OK in both. Latest trial run 6L quicker than California Zimbo trial on day by CZ QL600. ½ to G2 winner Gypsy Diamond.

 

Other runners:

1.Akari- 2 trials 2md WF 800m, 6th Rwick 1050. Pushed along in latest trial, easy hit out first. Sat off speed both. Pref others.

2.Born To Play- Scratched.Jumped OK and closed off very well in oinlu trial behind stakes placed Villami- Time trial almost identical to Tracy May. Drifts back here but strong late.Her mother was a half to More Joyous I believe.

3.California Zimbol- Scratched. Loved the way he has found the line in two trials this time in. Only knock is he has been slow out in both of them. Very strong late here. ½ to From Within.

4.Divine Approach- OK in Wellington Boot but beaten by Cassie’s Sister there who was beaten 3.5L behind stronger in town earlier prep. This looks tough.

5.Dorothy Of Oz- Blinkers 1st time- Shown speed two trials and closed off Ok. Ridden along second to Czarson in 2nd trial with blinkers on. No blinkers 1st trial. Out of 4 time G1 winning mare Princess Coup.

8.Ocean’s Faith- Trialled in same heat as Born To Play but was under riding and BTP under no riding put a few lengths on it late.

10.Quissent- 2 trials home track WF. First one OK, second one won but slowest heat of morning.

11.Sky Diamonds- Comes through slowest heat of morning and ridden along there.

12.Star Kisses- Slow out and no real impact two trials.

14.Precisely- Prefer others.

Race 3

Overview: Chris Waller often uses this meeting to unearth a nice horse for Queensland. Last year it was The Autumn Sun and while it would be hard to suggest he will find another one like him here, he might unearth a smart prospect in Reloaded. He has taken a little bit of stoking up at the trials but he has been very strong late at two trials this prep and just absolutely love his galloping action. I think he will be a really nice mile plus horse in time (his mum won an Oaks and another G1 at 2000m) but he might be too classy all the same over 1200m on the big track. The gate is tricky but I reckon he wants galloping room anyway. Disruptor has trialled up well and will be the one up on speed giving a big kick. Twentyfour Carat will also run on.

Advice: I don’t normally bet in these races as I find there isn’t enough date to price the race up (too many first starters) but I’m tempted to have something on Reloaded. I think the market in the last five minutes tells the story, if he is $4.60-$3 I think he will win, if he is $4.60-$6 he might be the flashing light for next time. Either way I think he has a big future on what I’ve seen at the trials.

Confidence rating of race: 6.5/10.

Selections: 10-2-12-1

10.Reloaded- Two nice trials- Little bit of stoking up but very strong late in both. Latest runner up in solid time. Love the stride on him. Mum was a 2 time G1 winner (won an Oaks and other G1 at 2000m.

2.Disruptor- Two nice trials coming in where shown speed and gone to line in style. 2nd to Anaheed wet track only start, held up early sttaight finished stronglu. Runs well.

12.Twentyfour Carat- Closed off solidly recent trial as he did on debut off a number of trials last prep. Form debut run just fair but closes off.

1.Discharged- 3 trials- won two of them the other one didn’t push on out the back and given easy enough time. Latest winning time solid. Should be up on speed and give a kick.

Other runners:

3.Dummy Run- hard to have.

4.Industrial- Got back in trial and closed off OK under some riding. Ditto in race last prep where entitled to run on as very slow L600.

6.Kingstar Diamond- Runner up in two trials- Quite keen in them and didn’t have a heap last 50-100 as a result. Market?

7.Lost Light- Just missed first-up KG where figures out of race ordinary. 5th horse won mdn since but 1st and 3rd were first starters.Trialled OK prior.

8.Rari- Trialled OK but heat was .8s slower than Disruptor on day (L600 .5s slower too). Winner of heat beaten 8L at Muswellbrook since.

9.Ready To Humble- OK on debut. .4s slower 2yo fillies race on day but difference early in race before 600m.Winner 1st starter, 2nd well beaten other two starts prior.

11.The Snooperstar- Would need to improve.

14.Rock Amore-Blinkers 1st time. Just fair first-up and needs to improve.

 

Race 4

Overview: This looks a race in two for mine between Maddison Avenue and Wild Impact. The latter has been the early market mover and he is one from one and could be a pretty smart horse. Having said that, it’s never easy to go from a maiden straight to a benchmark 72 and at least Maddison Avenue is proven in this grade, should get a soft lead and give a good kick. I’m very scared of Wild Impact and she might just be too classy. I think Jullkis is under the odds here at $3. I know she should appreciate the extra trip but the figures out of her last start win were poor (see below).

Advice: Maddison Avenue from Wild Impact.

Confidence rating of race: 7/10.

Selections: 1-7-5-4

1.Maddison Avenue ($3.60)- Looks to lead again. Won well 1600m Melb last start. 3L slower other mile race day but that was all before 600m. QL200 of race. 3 subs st 0 placings, form average. Disapp two back but inf ground and then three back won in OK figures. Hard to catch again.

7.Wild Impact ($3.50)- Two trials- Detached main field first trial but under no pressure, closed off nicely for 3rd second trial 1200m Rwick. Impressive only start mile provincials. 12.02 2nd QL200 of day. Hard to hold out. Mdn to B72.

5.Lady Evelyn ($10)- Drifter fup and made no impact in straight. 4 of six wins at 1550m and beyond and she did win at 1600m third up last prep. Second up here. Showed ability last prep.

4. Jullkis ($6)-Won Cl1 last start but figures were soft. 8L slower than the 1400m Mdn and most of that was L600. Traffic problems there and mile should suit. 3 winners out of last race.

Against:

4.Jullkis- I’ve marked her double her current price but concede she has upside all the same. Just think she is unders here.

Other runners:

2.Lightning Nic ($21)- Beat subs 4th placegetter in Oaks on heavy track two back. Dry runs either side average. Prefer wet.

3.Una Fuerza ($21)- No vision of trial. Ear muffs pre race only 1st time. Hard to have on form.

6.Vive Marie-Scratched. Seemed to have her chance LS. Ditto Muswellbrook.

8.Cuban Royale ($17)- Too good at Moruya first-up. Slower time than Mdn but completely different race shape. Beat Heavenly Thunder narrowly who has won 1/15.

 

Race 5

Overview: Looks a tough one this race. Most have claims and I just don’t really have an opinion either way here.

Advice: Go wide in the quaddie.

Confidence rating on race: 1/10.

Selections: 3-5-6-1

3.White Boots ($5)- Winkers 1st time- Liked his run over the mile LS and he has such a great winning strike rate. 2nd to Supernova prior. Extra trip no issue won up to 1900m.

5.Milsean ($5.50)- Bounced into form last two. Clocked good splits from front LS and kept on going to score in good overall time. Drops 2.5kg, should lead again.

6.The Bandit ($8)- Once real fierce galloper but seems to be settling better these days. Can fall to pieces in the yard so big yard watch. Beat Blinkin Artie there who has just missed with big weight at Wyong since. Tickover trial closed off very nicely since.

1.Hogmanay ($7)- Building 4th up and like the way he closed off a mile at Wyong LS. Won this t/d last prep. Should be getting near peak now. Meets White Boots 1kg better off.

Against:

7.Girl Tuesday ($8)- Just seems too short in the market. Little between her and Karavali in two recent clashes.Has won a 1200m WF trial since LS. Talented but hasn’t gone on this prep.

Other runners:

2.Karavali ($11)- Loves it at Randwick (3 of 5 overall wins here). Ran third this race last year with 57.5kg. Good in Aspiration, OK on day hard to make ground latest.

4.King Tomlola ($9)- Won on the Kenso at this distance three back and was OK with big weight last satart. Too wet two back when beaten a fair way behind White Bootts. Drops 4,5kg and gets a 2kg swing on Milsean. Can race keen but settled OK last start.

Race 6

Overview: Doesn’t get much easier here and all I know is that I could not dive in and take $2.20 about Reginae in this race. Charretera went past her the other day late, they were both first-up and yet one is $4.40 and the other is $2.20 (they meet on the same weight scale too). Bare Naked Lady made a meal of the start first-up and I think she has something to offer here. Above And Beyond is in the same boat but is 1200m first-up a tough ask. Charratera and Reginae both have claims, while Unguarded pulled up lame last start and I think we can be forgiving for that. The market has overreacted with her.

Advice: Against Reginae at $2.20. A few chances here and that’s too short.

Confidence rating of race: 4.5/10.

Selections: 5-4-3-2

5.Charratera ($5)- Got past Reginae late first-up and should be fitter for that. They meet same weight scale here. Had a good prep last time in. No luck before a break.

4.Bare Naked Lady ($5)- bounded on jumping and missed start 2L fup and then got home well (3rd Ql600 of day there). 2nd horse beaten photo in town since. Beat Above And Beyond on merits only clash 1100m last prep WF and actually meets him 2.5kg better for doing so. 1200m?

3.Reginae ($4.50)- Won a trial and then knocked up with 61kg fup provincials. Finished alongside Charaterra there and they meet at same weight scale here. Won a weak form race on Saturday this track 1300m last prep. Comes through Q x 4 1200m races day Gosford fup.

2.Above And Beyond ($5.50)- Got back in a recent trial but closed off well. Expect him to be on speed and giving a big kick. Vegadaze form last prep and won mdn 1000m first-up. 1200m fresh one trial?

Other chance:

6.Unguared ($14)- slow out and then 1/5 lame near hind leg last start. Beaten 4L behind Charratera/Reginae there. Rn behind subs stakeswinner was god first-up at Hawkesbury.

Other runners:

1.Impavido ($45)- Closed off OK late in a recent trial but he hasn’t raced under 1350m in his career before. Hard to have.

7.Phoebe’s Lass ($17)- Can bob up from time to time but form hasn’t stakced up out of LS. 6 subs st 0 placings.Finds JMAC again and can produce a good run every now and then.

8.The Patrician ($33)- Won a weak form race first-up and then poked through late for third LS in avg rating race. Both wins soft/heavy. Others more upside?

 

Race 7

Overview: He has been $2 to $1.70 in early markets but I reckon Wolfe might even start shorter here. I concede his trials haven’t been outstanding but his last one was better, the dry surface suits, he should lead and he should win. He is two from two, the blinkers go on and he beat multiple subsequent winners and clocked nice enough sectionals last prep. Kosciusko was a good winner first up but the figures and horses that finished around him were just fair.

Advice: Wolfe looks overs to me at $1.70. I have him marked at $1.60.

Confidence rating of race: 9/10.

Selections: 2-4-3-1

2.Wolfe ($1.60)- Blinkers 1st time- Two wins last time in were good in strong time. 3 trials left a bit to be desired this time in but latest was better and that was firmest track in 3 trials. No blinkers any of trials. 2 winners out of both races last prep plus host of placings. Leads and should win.

4.Kosciusko- ($7) Nice return when in avg figures. Second and third were well beaten provincials and country two starts prior? 2nd horse beaten easily Nowra/KG, 3rd horse last at KG and Hawkesbury.

3.King Hewitt ($14)- Closed off nicely trial when 3rd 1000m Beaumont Ncle. Around the mark last prep without rwally threatening.

1.Level Eight ($17)- Chased home potential star fresh, then too wet and then maybe they went too hard the other day and he was tired before making run. Still disappointing. Had a few chances.

Other runners:

5.Kaapfever ($80)- Tempo against but still disappointing furst up. Trials before were ordinary. Wait for improvement. Only win at a mile, this 1400m.

6.Volpe ($34)- Disappointing fresh and then entitled to get home a lot better than he did last start.Has won 3rd up in past but needs to lift. Drier track will help.

7.Something Fast ($34)- Quicker than B70 on day LS but that was tempo related and race run 9.5L quicker to 600m. Slow last 600m but fought them off. 2nd lightly raced and third 10 st maiden.

8.Son Of Spartacus ($80)-Wide at Wagga two back (3 winners out of this race) and then beaten in bush last start but it was a $13,000 Holbrook Cup. Doubt right form?

Race 8

Overview: Good race to finish the day with race pattern likely to play a part here. Southern Lad has trialled up well and is as good a chance as any here in the last. I also thought Golden Hits and Legislation (new stable) have both looked the part at the trials and were at good odds. Prince Mayted is not hopeless at big odds but there are many chances here and track pattern could be key.

Advice: Leaning to Southern Lad with little confidence at this stage.

Confidence rating of race: 5/10.

Selections: 4-13-11-8

4.Southern Lad ($5)- Two trials- 1st one closed off well for third behind Lean Mean Machine and 2nd one always last and not asked anything. Both without blinkers they go on race day. Won 2/3 first up inc Cl2 Wyong 1100m last prep where best late figures of day then gate cost him v Niccobelle Rwick 1200m.

13.Legislation ($11)- Blinkers 1st time- Closed off well 2 WF trials when finishing midfield no blinkers and they go on race day. First up prob shd won Cant last prep 3rd QL200 night. Fup Pfieffer stable, formerly Snowdens.

11.Golden Hits ($12)-Tongue tie off. Two trials- second Nature Strip first one not asked for effort (neither was the winner of trial!) then pushed along second trial when second to Ready For Prophet in quickest 1050m heat of morning. Form last prep OK without raving.

8.Prince Mayted ($21)- Wide off the track last two runs. Prefer him on wet but gets a suck run here from the draw and just might keep on kicking here. Beat Puppet Master 1000m Kenso good track last year and also beaten home Goldfinch both of their clashes and Niccobelle only clash. 4 of 9 wins at 1000m. Query on whether going well enough.

Other chances:

10.Omar ($8)- Nice return at provincinals when set strong speed (soft L600) but won well, beating three rivals. 2nd horse won a Cl2 since. Can he lead. Should kick, this more depth. Won three of past 4 starts.

3.Puppet Master ($15)- Trialled well but too wet for him first up. Trainer always said quicker track better for him. Should lead roll and if track is conducive to fast times and leaders, he could be hard to catch. Will have company early though.

9.Argent D’Or ($18)- Blinkers off- Two soft trials. Has no early pace but he can reel off a late sectional. First-up last two preps good from back. Best L600 of day by 4L first-up last prep when just outside placings KG 1000m. If they overdo it, he can run a race.

2.Discussions ($17)- Two soft trials with blinkers off and they go on race day. Came a long way last prep. Tricky map here can he get across. All 5 wins at 1200m and beyond? 4 of 5 wins came when he led.

Other runners:

1.Niccolbelle-Scratched.Nice soft trial out the back and closed off on the Beaumont track. Won first up last prep at Tamworth in solid figures. Last 4 wins all came when he can lead and bowl along. Doubt he leads these.

5.Lion Couchant ($160)- Resuming. No trials. 8yo. 5 of 6 wins at 1000m but this is tough.

6.Crafty Tycoon ($17)- Blinkers off 1st time, visors 1st time-Really good from the back LS but that was a weak race (6 subs st 0 placings). Won at provincials prior when tempo was against him. 1st time 1000m. 1100m lowest distance raced at before.

7.Goldfinch ($21)- Didn’t begin that well, sat wide and was plain first-up. Expect to be ridden more aggressively here.

12.Traumatised ($14)- Good win fresh, touch disap 2nd up. Now draws wider after getting perfect runs last two.Can be keen without cover?

14.Captain Courageous ($45)- Won LS but well held by Omar prior.Meets that horse 1kg worse from that day too.

15.November Man ($55)- Bolted in country fresh and then got past Traumatised late 2nd up. Wide gate.

 

 

 



Brad Davidson - Sky Racing

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