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Sky Racing Brad Davidson Hawkesbury preview tips April 27

 Apr 26 2019

Hawkesbury April 27

Best bets

Race 4 no.2 Manicure $6

Race 7 no.5 Trope $4.40

Next best

Race 1 no.11 Belfast Bella $6 (missed the price! Was $11)

Best roughie

Race 3 no.10 Bacchus $23 and $4.40

Best long shot

Race 8 no.6 Alward $41 and $8

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less. A few more bets on most occasions will be included here to spread the risk across a race day.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

Normal strategy (100 units)

Race 1 no.6 Belfast Bella 10 unit win at $6

Race 3 no10 Bacchus 3 unit win at $23 and 12 unit place at $4.40

Race 4 no.2 Manicure 20 unit win at $6

Race 7 no.5 Trope 20 unit win at $4.40

Race 8 no.6 Alward 2 unit win at $41 and 3 unit place at $8

Race 9 no.9 Signore Fox 10 unit win at $5

15 unit quaddie (starts r6, 6.9%) : 1-4-11. 2nd leg: 5,2,9. 3rd leg:2-6-5-11-3-8. 4th leg: 9-1-14-4.

5 unit multi ($9.24)- Race 1 no.6 Belfast Bella to place ($2.10) into Race 3 no.10 Bacchus to place ($4.40) 

Results for betting strategy: 71.5 unit profit (31%POT, outlay 230 units)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

The long game strategy (3.25 units)

Race 1 no.11 Belfast Bella 0.5u at $6 (missed price!)

Race 3 no.10 Bacchus 0.25u win at $23 and 0.5u place at $4.40

Race 4 no.2 Manicure 0.75u win at $6

Race 7 no.5 Trope 0.75u win at $4.40

Race 8 no.6 Alward 0.25u win at $41 and 0.25u place $8

Results for betting strategy: 105.9 units (5.9 unit profit, POT 79%, outlay 7.5 units)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Rail true

Last two Hawkesbury Gold Cup days 

29/04/2017       Hawk    TRUE     G3         Fair track- 3-4w best ground but fence OK          

28/04/2018       Hawk    TRUE     G4         Hard fence prob not to be and later on wider the better   \As

Track assessment: Pretty fair track but I would argue hard fence would be a bit inferior especially later in the day. Small sample though.

Weather: Good.

Wind: Gentle.

 

Preview

Race 1

Overview: She has been a firmer in early markets but I still Belfast Bella might start shorter come the weekend. She won with a leg in the air at this track last start in much weaker grade (she overcame a slow tempo though) and she should relish the step up in trip here. I’ve been waiting for Bajan Gold to run again and he has had no luck at his past two runs. King Viv is knocking on the door and should go close again, while Letter To Juliette is ticking over nicely and did win the Orange Cup with 61kg last start.

Advice: Belfast Bella but the price has gone now.

Confidence rating on race: 7/10.

Selections: 11-7-2-1

11.Belfast Bella ($5.50)- Looks the gamble here at around $9-$9.50. I know she didn’t beat much last start but they walked and she reeled off the 3rd QL200 split of the day and won with the ears pricked. She should appreciate the extra distance here and gets in with no weight on her back after the claim. Expecting her to be very strong late.

7.Bajan Gold ($4.50)- I have been waiting for him to get an unimpeded runs from the 600m and he is just crying out for it. Should have won last start, should have gone closer the start prior and the barrier suits. Just needs clear air and is the horse to beat.

2.King Viv ($7.50)- He has hit his straps after five runs back from a long spell and he just missed last time out. He might improve again here and he doesn’t need to.

1.Letter To Juliette ($12)- Enjoys it here and did win with the big weight last start.

Against: Makdanife- Just too short for a horse that prefers it wet.

Other runners:

3. Green Sweet ($31), 4. Raqeeq ($16), 5. Ombudsman ($22), 6. Chilly Cha Cha scratched, 8. Free Fly Too ($11), 9. Makdanife ($12), 10. Concessions ($32), 12. Joe’s Joy ($32), 13. Captain America ($129).

R2

Overview: Tricky race. Chalmers has been pretty good from the back at his past two starts (although the races have been run to suit). He had no luck two back and then finished third in the Provincial Championships Final. James McDonald sticks and he should go close. Bastia had no luck last start at the provincials when blocked for a run in the straight and he is building towards something here. Stock Up looks a good chance at odds and she hasn’t had the best of luck of late. She is racing on her home track here but is four weeks between runs. Harmattan next best.

Advice: Bastia just due to prices ahead of Chalmerszx.

Confidence rating on race: 6/10.

Selections: 4-5-9-3

4.Bastia ($4.50)- No luck LS when 4TH at provincials. Held up L200. Box sears again. Confident he beats Harmattan home here. Won at Hawkesbury too.

5.Chalmers ($4)- No luck in Prov Qualifier and then really good from the back in Prov Final last start. Speed on in both races but they should roll here as well. Won twice 1600m so 1500m fine.

9.Stock Up ($8) Could be a roughie- No luck two back in Prov Qualifier where held up and then worked home, Not far off Chalmers and meets him 3kg better off at weights here. Good behind Turnberry and Prov Champs winner Bobbing LS. Good draw, no weight, home track. 4 week gap between runs.

3.Harmattan ($7)- Had her chance last few. Did beat Bastia home LS but she was rock hard fit, he has improvement and was unlucky.

Other chances:

8.Cuban Royale ($12)- Best of on pacers at WF in race they went very hard in LS. Should lead and chance to hold on for multiples.

Other runners:

1.So You Win ($11), 2. Tamarack ($49), 6. Gauguin ($49), 7. Miss Redoble ($12), 10. Alier ($32).

R3

Overview: Hard to go past the unbeaten Erno and he clocked a strong overall figure last start (quicker than the three-year-old maiden on the same day) and was strong late. I think the bet in the race is Bacchus and he was on the wrong part of the track first-up and then turned his head at the start at Warwick Farm the other day before clocking the quickest last 200m split in that race (Erno was the winner). He has shown speed at the trials and may settle closer. Jailbreak gets the blinkers on the first time and has trialled up well, while Creator also gets the blinkers on but needs to lift.

Advice: Bacchus the value each-way.

Confidence rating on race: 7/10.

Selections: 1-10-8-2

1.Erno ($2.75)- 2/2 and really good late figures LS when challenged. Ran quicker time than the 3Y0 Mdn on the same day. Should lead and be hard to beat.

10. Bacchus ($10)- Wrong part of track first-up and turned head at the start the other day at WF before clocking QL200 of race. Wish he drew a gate but good roughie here. Beat Jailbreak home last prep.

8. Jailbreak ($7)- Blinkers 1st time. 2 trials- First out the back and under hold, 2nd jumped to front with blinkers on and strong late. Was 3WNC when not far away at Randwick last prep (Bacchus beat him home there but he was wide no cover).

2. Lost Light ($10)- Not a lot of luck on debut but figures just fair out of that race.

Against:

4.Creator ($11)- Blinkers 1s time. Has been disappointing in two runs to date. Will the blinkers turn him around? Has been in the market at both runs and was an expensive yearling. Too short.

Other runners:

3. Brandenburg ($19), 5. Rammstein ($15), 6. Shaibanat ($19), 7. Antonio Padre ($15), 9. Chloebella Rose ($152)

Race 4

Overview: I’m quite keen on Manicure here and she just looks good value. Forgive her run in the Coolmore Classic when she was four wide throughout and pulled up lame. The 1500m was always going to be too far as well. Her form before that was super for a race like this, she is well weighted and she did account for Irithea comfortably enough at the Magic Millions carnival in January. Irithea was good first-up and looks the danger, while Multaja is going well but this is another level compared to what she has been racing against.

Advice: Manicure to win.

Confidence rating on race: 7/10.

Selections: 2-3-1-6

2.Manicure ($4.40)- Love the fact she has been kept back for this with a tickover trial. Wide in the Coolmore and her runs prior were super. Beat Irithea fair and square at MM back in Jan and looks good odds here.

3.Irithea ($5)- Just seems a Bit short. Should lead (which she loves) and prove hard to run down but it was a funny race fresh and the best runs in the race were back in the field as the race split in two and it suited those on speed (which she was). Just missed to Smartedge second up last prep.

1.Pecans ($7)- What you see is what you get. 2/2 this track, won this race last year and well weighted. Trials have been good for her. Runs her usual honest race. A real trier.

6.Multaja ($7)- Not as well suited here as LS where figures out of PJ Bell were average. This is a new level and she is poorly weighted. Still, she has a turn of foot and is racing well.

Other runners: 4. Zumbelina ($14), 5. Aqua D’Ivina ($8), 7. Miss Que  ($17), 8. Aeecee Tong De ($117), 9. Red Chandelier ($59)

 

 

Race 5

Overview: Very open Highway race. I thought Marokawa might run a race at odds and he was a good first-up winner at Scone and then just got too far at Tamworth last start. The figures from that race were poor but they rarely run time at Tamworth. Zardoro did beat Burning Crown last prep (wet track though) and has trialled up well for this. Plenty of other chances too!

Advice: Marokawa the value but no confidence here.

Confidence rating on race: 2/10.

Selections: 12-8-1-11

12.Marokawa ($8)- Good from AT Scone first-up then made meal of the start and flashed home slow L600 at Tamworth (they rarely run time at Tamworth though). Can settle closer from the gate and gets in light.

8.Zardoro ($6)- Beat Burning Crown in Hway on soft 7 last year. Trialled well leading in and not far away first-up last prep.

1.Legion Of Boom ($6)- Too wet LS but form prior was strong on top of the ground. Comes from good yard.

11. Major Danger ($9)- Next best.

Other runners:  3. Mick The Hat ($18), 4. My Blue Jeans ($28), 5. Bridyn May ($16), 6. Another McCloud scr, 7. Bullseye Score ($11), 9. So Shy ($28), 10. Norske Code ($14), 13. Lingalona Lass ($28), 14. More Euros (scr), 15. Smart Remark ($37), 16. Captain Remark ($75), 17. Harvest Dream ($56), 18. Simply Striking ($110)

Race 6

Overview: It’s hard to tip against Tactical Advantage. He is the best horse in the race, has the weight but seems to carry it well. He clocked the best late splits of day first-up at Doomben last prep and he can reel off a split. He beat Easy Eddie before a break and that horse has been airborne since. Tango Rain failed at a short price in this race last year and failed first-up last prep but he is a funny horse. He always trials well and he looks to lead these with no weight on his back and if he shows his best, he can run a cheeky race. Spending To Win and Badajoz run well.

Advice: Hard to tip against Tactical Advantage. Tango Rain is not a bad roughie at the odds.

Confidence rating on race: 6/10.

Selections: 1-4-11-3

1.Tactical Advantage ($3)- It’s hard to tip against Tactical Advantage. He is the best horse in the race, has the weight but seems to carry it well. He clocked the best late splits of day first-up at Doomben last prep and he can reel off a split. He beat Easy Eddie before a break and that horse has been airborne since.

4.Spending To Win ($8)- Beat Eduardo first-up at Caulfield last year. Trialled OK no blinkers (they go on race day). Just worried about the gate for him. Only one turn at the 1100m here but he can overrace without cover.

11.Tango Rain ($12)- Failed at a short price in this race last year and failed first-up last prep but he is a funny horse. Always trials well and he looks to lead these with no weight on his back and looks over the odds.

3.Badajoz ($10)- Gets a suck run from a good draw. Just missed behind Invincible Star last prep at 1100m in Starlight. Beat Spending To Win last time they clashed in December but STW had his measure clash prior.

Other chance:

12. Gibraltar Girl ($21)- Race form says no but she has trialling better leading into this than previous preps.

Against:

6.Intuition ($11)- Just seems too short for mine. Won two straight before a break but against inferior opposition.

Other runners:

2. Pinch River ($40), 5. Epidemic ($50), 7. In Good Time ($74), 8. Akasaki ($18), 9. Junglized ($13), 10. Latin Boy ($21), 13. Conarchie ($119), 14. Niccobelle ($74), 15. And So It Goes ($149).                                            

 

Race 7

Overview: I like the look of Trope here and I just think he deserves to be favourite on what he has done to date. He clocked the quickest last 200m split of the race in the Arrowfield and he is just bred to lap up the 1400m. I’m very scared of Military Zone and the tempo was just against him first-up. He is unbeaten second-up and should also relish 1400m. Kylease has been racing well but is coming out of much weaker grade and she looks a false favourite to me. Quackerjack and Ranier the best of the rest.

Advice: Trope to win.

Confidence rating on race: 6.5/10.

Selections: 5-2-9-1

5.Trope ($3.50)- Liked his run in the Arrowfield and it was that of a horse just looking for further for mine. QL200 of the race there and he gets to 1400m now. This looks a nice race and he will be hard to hold out late.

2.Military Zone ($4)- Loved his first-up run and there just wasn’t enough tempo for him. He clocked the QL800,600,400 and 200m of the day. 2/2 second-up and the 1400m should suit.

9.Kylease ($4)- Won 3 from 4 but seems a false favourite here. Hasn’t been beating much at all really and now 1400m with company up front. She did clock quicker overall time than MZ last start over same distance on same day and drops 5.5kg but MZ race slower and she now has company at 1400m. Runs well all the same.

1.Ranier ($15)- Blinkers again. Last time they went on he ran second to Nakeeta Jane WF. Had them on every since apart from LS when they were off. Got home OK late in Carbine Club but don’t like the drop back to 1400m.

Other chances:

3.Quackerjack ($15)- Good first-up win in easier company but had a lot to suit when leading. This is much harder.

 

Other runners: 4. Sheriff ($50),  6. Come Along ($61), 7. Reiby’s Regent ($485), 8. Eawase ($60), 10. Glamour Cat ($1200)

Rave 8

Overview: He is not a horse I tip often because frankly he doesn’t win often but Tom Melbourne gets a nice set up here and he has the best form coming into this. I want to make a case for Alward at the big odds here and he always runs a race fresh. He was third in the Rowley Mile first-up last prep on the worst part of the Hawkesbury track and the prep prior he was a good thing beaten at 1500m at Rosehill. Tumultuous and Archedemus are both chances along with Zourkhan but the last two mentioned there prefer wet tracks.

Advice: Alward a good roughie at big odds.

Confidence rating on race: 4/10

Selections: 2-6-5-11

2.Tom Melbourne ($5)- Hard horse to catch but he gets another chance here. Maps well, has the right form line and runs well. Just doesn’t win very often!

6.Alward ($20)- Will be be odds here and concede the map doesn’t suit but he could be worth a speck. His fresh runs have been super- he was third first-up Rowley Mile this track last prep when on the worst ground (hard fence). The prep prior to that he was a good thing beaten first-up at 1500m at Rosehill. Would have loved a barrier but can run a cheeky race. The $7 place appeals.

5.Tumultuous ($13)- Really liked his trials leading into this (does trial well though normally). Fresh record at a mile is sound and his fresh run at 1500m three preps back at 1500m at Rosehill outstanding (wins from a gate that day).

11.Archedemus ($5)- Just seems too short. Had excuses Prov Champs Final but plodded when out last 150m. Reckon he is much better on wet ground and this is harder naturally. Gets weight relief and a good run.

Other chances:

3.Aloisia ($12)- Hit and miss but Coolmore Classic/Villers runs have her in this.

8.Snitzon ($21)- Tempo against LS- Has run third in an Epsom at a mile!

New Universe- A couple of months between runs at 1600m a ? but you would struggle to find a horse in race with better turn of foot. Needs to settle (can overdo it). Wide gate query.

10.Zourkhan ($7)- Great return but is he another that prefer wet ground?

Other runners: 1. Sixties Groove ($28), 4. Kaonic ($11), 7. Black On Gold ($82), 9. New Universe ($16), 12. Insensata ($82), 13. Kellstorm ($100)

 

Race 9 

Overview: There looks to be a sense of timing here with Signore Fox and he drops in grade, finds James McDonald and meets Echo Jet 4.5kg better off at the weights from two starts back where his run was just as good as that horse. He followed it up with a strong effort in a strong South Pacific Classic and this looks a good race for him. Echo Jet is two from two this prep and he is hard to knock, while El Mo has been flying in the country and Greg Ryan makes a rare trip to town for the one ride. Generalissimo goes in everything as well.

Advice: Signore Fox to win

Confidence rating on race: 6/10.

Selections: 9-1-14-4

9.Signore Fox ($4.50)- Looks a sense of timing here finding Jmac and down in grade. Chased home Echo Jet two back and with a gate beats him that day. Meets thatbhorse 4.5kg better off now. Run in a strong South Pacific was good LS. Beat Wagner last spring as well and meets him better at weights for doing so. Also won at Hawkesbury.

1.Echo Jet ($6)- 2/2 this prep and I like the way he responded when challenged by Reelem In Ruby LS. Looks to get it pretty soft on speed again. Just has to extend to 1300m now.

14.El Mo ($9)- Coming off country form but progressive and Greg Ryan makes a rare trip to town just for this ride. Good figures out of late couple and has won four from 8.

4.Generalissimo ($15)- Looks a target race on the home track. Won three from six here and trial was good. Runs well.

Other chances:

2.Wagner ($9)- Just think he is a touch overrated. Not far away LS and sure to have admirers again. Beaten by Signore Fox last prep.

8.Vinnie Power ($14)- Two trials OK without the blinkers. They go on race day. Just not really renowned first-up and they improve as prep goes from this stable asa general rule aswell.

Other runners: 3. Dynamited ($15), 5. Grimoire ($15), 6. Our Belisa ($190), 7. Perfect Rhyme ($60), 10. Handfast ($19), 11. No Escape ($63), 12. Tim’s Principal ($19), 13. Nicco Lad scratched, 15. Chalk ($95)



Brad Davidson - Sky Racing

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