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Sky Racing Brad Davidson Canterbury May 8

 May 7 2019

Canterbury May 8

 

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less. A few more bets on most occasions will be included here to spread the risk across a race day.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

Normal strategy (100 units spent today)

Race 1 no.4 California Zimbol 15 units at $6.50

Race 2 no.11 Twentyfour Carat 5 unit at $3.90

Race 4 no.6 Waruna 20 units at $4

Race 5 no.1 Napoleon Solo 20 units at $3.60

Race 6 no.2 Discussions 2 unit win at $12

Race 6 no.9 C’est Davinchi 3 unit win at $19

Race 7 no.2 Golden Hits 5 unit win at $13 and and 15 unit place at $3

10 unit quaddie (starts r 4): 1st leg: 6. 2nd leg: 1,2,8. 3rd leg:4-5-2-9. 4th leg: 2,9,11.

5 unit multi ($8.13)- Race 4 no.6 Waruna to place ($1.75) into Race 5 no.1 Napoleon Solo to place ($1.55) into race 7 no.2 Golden Hits to place ($3)

Betting results since started on April 20: -57.35u, (-13%POT, 430 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (2.75 units spent below)

Race 1 no.4 California Zimbol 0.5 unit at $6.50

Race 4 no.6 Waruna 0.75 unit at $4

Race 5 no.1 Napoleon Solo 0.75 unit at $3.60

Race 7 no.2 Golden Hits 0.25 unit win at $13 and 0.5 unit place at $3

Betting results since started on April 20: Overall: -0.35 unit profit, (-2%POT, 13.75 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Canterbury rail true

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6          F7              F8          F9

7/06/2017         Cant      TRUE     H8-9      Fence big advantage early and then evened out a bit more late                                              

10/01/2018       Cant      TRUE     S6-5      Fair track this.                                           

9/02/2018         Canterbury         TRUE     G4   Fair track                                                      

2/05/2018         Cant      TRUE     G4         A bit hard to make ground from the back  but could just off them. Pretty even across                                           

27/06/2018       Cant      TRUE     S6          Needed to be on fence in run- 6/7 winners on fence in run                                                    

8/08/2018         Cant      True      g3          Fence no disadvantage could make ground and wide but fence no disad                                             

26/10/2018       Cant      True      S5          Pretty fair- on pace winners early then swooping late. No real lanes.                                             

14/12/2018       Cant      True      S7          Had to be on fence in run at least and helped in st too. 18/24 placegetters entire night on fence                                              

18/01/2019       Cant      True      G3         No real lanes but on pace helped here                                               

8/02/2019         Cant      True      S7          Massive advantage to be on fence in run, on pace adv as well but could make ground still. Rain during night big storm.             

Assessment: Rail true on a good track seems to be pretty fair. If anything touch on pace (if wet and rail true then definitely rail but I doubt we will be on a wet track).

Good track expected

Wind: Moderate westerly. Tail wind down back straight (helping horses on pace in sprint trips).

Race 1

Overview: The start is the query for California Zimbol but at $7 she is worth a gamble in the first. I’ve loved her trials and she has plenty of style and a lovely action. I don’t price these two-year-old races with a heap of first starters due to a lack of data but $7, I’m happy to play. Tracy May and Maddi Rocks the dangers.

Confidence of race: 6/10.

Advice: California Zimbol to win at $5+.

Selections: 4-2-8-6

4.California Zimbol- Half to From Within- Two lovely trials apart from being a bit tardy out. Don’t mind wide gate. 33.9 QL600.

2.Tracy May- Got back and found line well on debut behind a smart one. Can opark closer, still inside needs luclk. Well bred.

8.Maddi Rocks- Showed speed and won trial by more than 3L in fair time/L600. Still looked stylish. On speed, McEvoy.

6.Dorothy of Oz- Led easily on debut and faded late. Should roll along in front again. Tracy May got past her late LS.

Other runners:

5.Celestial Falls- Two trials ridden along and finished off solifly, Blinkers on both and a bit keen latest trial. ½ to Greysful Glamour

7.Kahlo- Ran In Percy Sykes fup where outclassed. Easier but needs to liuft, Winkers 1st time.

9.Parlour- Three times this time in just fair. Want to watch.

10.Rocket’s N Roses- Showed speed in recent Nowra trial but beaten 4L there.

11.Asiago- WNC last start but would need to improve. Pleasing tickover trial since when found line well.

12.Diamonds And Rust- $15-$31 first-up at Muswellbrook and never in it. Soft trial Gosford since.

13.Testa’s Flower- Got home OK but that was Orange first-up. Winner there held in town 2 starts in Sydney but gone to new level since.

14.Benoni- Two trials just fair. Two runs last time in average.

Race 2

Overview: Those who took the $51 in the JJ Atkins about Twentyfour Carat as suggested last week will be hoping for a big run here. I loved his first-up run against Reloaded and he had no luck there and was only 1 ¼ lengths away. I would have loved 1300-1400 and this might not be his race but I’m confident he is the strongest late. The blinkers go on and happy to lean his way over Disruptor who was very good in the same race after being caught wide. He might have to do a bit of work from out wide again.

Advice: Twentyfour Carat on top (let’s hope he runs well re JJ Atkins bet).

Confidence of race: 6/10.

Selections: 11-4-8-1

11.Twentyfour Carat- Held up forst up but liked him late. Blinkers on, stays at 1200m the concern but confident he is the strongest late. Backed him JJ Atkins market early, looks a horse that will get a bit of ground.

4.Discharged- Sat WNC on speed on debut and kept kicking. Best of on pacers there and should find lead here.

8.Rammstein- Led and knocked up fresh, second to subs city winner Diamond Thunder second up in quickest of 4 x 1100m races on day. Place chance. 7th horse won Mdn too,

1.Bigboyroy- Seems to have had his chance in Qld although not fair away. Gets a good run again, Time LS just fair.

Other runners:

2.Disruptor- Scratched.Wnc first-up and was pretty tough there. Finds JMAC. Tricky draw- goes forward? Trialled very well prior.

3.Lubuk- Just fair firs-tup and then wet track against. Exhillarates form last prep (not as strong as first thought though) but hasn’t gone on yet.

5.Bosca- Two Wagga trials- Beat Pressed For Thyme latest who won at Wagga carnival debut but that horse was under lot less pressure. Hard to have.

6.Fisticuffs- McEvoy rides- Trials just fair- Awkward draw? Time latest trial avg,

7.Kordia- Pushed along two trials and last one run in slow ov time and slow L600

9.Secretively- Two trials have been OK without getting carried away,

10.Somnus- Beaten 7L behind Disruptor unless little pressure first trial, second trial pished along just OK.

12.Bells Approaching- 2 trials- Comes through slow heat the latest overall and L600. Well beaten only start last prep.

13.Moreno- Scratched. Held ground first-up and would need to improve on that.Slow out on debut.

14.Somervell- Trialled well and then a bit one paced on debut.

15.Invincible Prince- Won a Gosford trial (time solid L600 just OK though) since 4th Muswellbrook where a bit slow out-1l slower 2YO fillies and overall poorer quality race due to shape; Winner has won Cl2 since.

16.Dr Kardo- Needs to lift if gets a run.

 

Race 3

Overview: Toughest race of the day. Not much between these. Knowitall Jack trialled well but is short enough. Betty Blooms could be the one if she is fit enough in the yard. Tapitonic runs well with the blinkers on. Against Sedgemoor off the slow trial time.

Advice: Yard important but no confidence here.

Selections: 2-5-3-4

Confidence of race: 3/10.

2.Knowitall Jack ($2.90)- Two soft trials, bit keen in the latest one. Should have won first-up last prep in weak form race (7 subs st 0 placings) and then had chance LS. Finds JMAC.

5.Betty Blooms ($4)- Soft lead on debut last prep and real sprint home. Will want further at some point. Soft trial coming in fair time.
3.Tapitonic ($5)- Blinkers 1st time. Comes through slowest 4 x 1200 races on debit and then set up for him LS. Winner won again LS but 3rd and 5th both fair since. Back in trip.

4.Sedgemoor ($6)- Two trials. Soft lead on debut and had chance when second I average form/figures race (8 subs st 1 pl). 2 trials won latest by 3L but time was easily slowest 1045m heat of morning and was more 6L slower than Knowitall Jack’s heat and L600 was 2-3L slower too. McEvoy rides, rolls forward?

Other runners:

1.England-Scrtached.Ridden quiet in trial and hit line nicely under a hold. Tricky draw? Disapp LS but two back four winners out of that race.

6.Havana Storm ($37)- Blindfold 1st time- 2 recent trials just fair although not knocked about in latest of them. Had 5 career trials.

7.Battlers Four ($73)– Raced keen first-up and blundered at 400m. Jock said would be better without blinkers and gets them off here. Wolfe form reads OK last prep. Improves but needs to.

8.Neanderthal ($73)-Recent trial Goulnburn ok. Couldn’t keep up Grafton before a break. Hard to have.

9.Mandalong One Up- Scratched. Blinkers 1st time. Entitled to do more first-up when race run to suit backmarkers. Yet to place seven starts.

10.Stella Maris-Scratched. R/up slowest 4 x1200m races prov then well beaten city.

             

Race 4

Overview: Looks to be a nice race for Waruna. It was too wet for her first-up and her run was super second-up where she was wide throughout and then found the line well (it was set up for her but she was wide). Julian Rock runs well but the trainer said he prefers wet ground. Smiling City was wide last start and comes through a good race. Be Mindful was disappointing last start but is better than that.

Confidence in race: 7/10.

Selections: 6-2-8-1.

6.Waruna ($3.70)- Too wet first-up and then 3WNC at back in strong run race and ran out of room LS. 1550m suits, likes Canterbury. Gets her chance.

2.Julian Rock ($5.50)- Really good fup WF inferior ground and then sat 2nd, overraced and stuck on OK as fav. Trainer reckons better wet ground the knock. Blinkers off a good move.

8.Smiling City ($8)- 3WNC last start and overraced. His time was 7L quicker Julian Rock’s but mostly race shape.  Wide draw- more positive?

1.Be Mindful ($10)- Overcame slow tempo to score two back but a bit disapp LS. Might be able to park a touch closer. Inside gate get back horse Canterbury needs luck though. Tempo against again LS.

Other runners:

3.Salsa Man ($25)- Blinkers off- Battled on OK LS at prov. Too wet 2 back but fence in run three back which was massive adv day.

4.Bella Success ($17)- Got going late first-up and extra trip looks a positive. Does she prefer it wet though. McEvoy on.

5.Chalk ($20)- Sprint home Saturday grade LS and stuck on. Won here four back but set up for him. Temp against 2 back but weak form race (7 subs st 1 pl)

7.Nacho Libre ($34)- Entitled to do more two back considering set up for swoopers. Just fair latest.

9.Smiling Manolito ($17)- Just fair first-up but was 1600m and strong run race. Better horse when he can lead which he can probably do here. Won t/d last prep but soft lead there.

10.Bring The Magic ($10)- 2nd QL200 of day first-up and then got back and just fair second up when Waruna had measure comfortably despite being 3WNC. 1550M IS ok JUST GETS back.

Race 5

Overview: I’m not sure Canterbury is going to be his favourite track but Napoleon Solo brings the best form lines to this race. He was good in a slowly run race in Queensland last start and his late splits were as good as Gem Song’s on the day. This looks a logical step up in trip. Welsh Legend has been freshened since the Adrian Knox and has trialled well since. Wolfe was a bit plain first up but it was a tad short for him. He rises quickly to 1900m here but should lead these comfortably.

Advice: Napoleon Solo to win.

Selections: 1-8-2-13

1.Napoleon Solo ($3.20)- Good return in strong South Pacific Classic (already produced winners Gem Song and Signore Fox) and then same L600 as Gem Song LS when got going late off slow tempo. 1900m looks logical next step. 2nd QL200 of day there.

8.Welsh Legend ($5.50)- 16 starters from Adrian Knox three placegetters but Amangiri stiff since and Aliferous fourth in Oaks. Loved her trial since. May have turned the corner. Races well Canterbury. Shd be 2/3 here.

2.Wolfe ($3.80)- Missed the start and stuck to task first-up. Extra trip could suit and should find lead but where’s he at. Trials just fair before first-up. 1400-1900? Also nom’d Scone Cup

13.Costas ($12)- Should have beaten Notabadharada when had to go back worst ground after held up, then led and kept going to win mdn easily. This much tougher though and 2nd there has had quite a few chances. 8L quicker Surjin on day but all race shape.

Other runners:

4.Stardome ($17)-Solid win off a freshen and form out of race solid (1 win 3 pl, 6 subs st). Did beat Costas only meeting last year. Still, prefer place only,

5.Surjin ($40)- Just fair and then much better LS when overcoming slow tempo to score in sprint home.

6.Soldier Of Love-Scratched, Soft time on speed and kicked to score LS. Missed top two just once but looks the B grade form. 2ND horse Etheridge form just fair.

7.Una Fuerza ($24)-Not far away Aus debut. Figures out of race average. 1900m now. $21-$31 there.

9.Exflytations ($122)- Disapp LS and ran on fairly avg form race prior.

10.Seababe-Scratched,Stuck to task latest but looks outclassed here.

11.Notabadharada ($40)- Got home well to score LS in solid figures. Second horse form just fair and third no star. Reckon it’s the B grade form.

14.Wild Impact-Scratched. Took off early first-up and tired late (but tempo was soft so not a bad idea). Will be better for that but figures out of race just fair. 1900 first time.

Race 6

Overview: Good race. Kolding was dominant in his first run as a gelding but gate one at Canterbury for a get back horse is not a good barrier as they don’t fan around the turn normally at this track and he will need luck. Rockin’ Ruga will be hard to run down, while Charratera is coming off a pretty dominant win last start. Two horses I could speck at odds are Discussions and C’est D’avinchi. Discussions messed the start up first up and 1000 was too short. He can land outside Rockin’ Ruga here and can run well at big odds. The other is C’est D’avinchi- I was keen on him first up and he went too bad to be true. The market may have overreacted to that performance.

Advice: Could speck C’est Davinchi and Discussions at the odds. I just reckon they are overs.

Selections: 4-5-2-9

4.Kolding ($2.40)- Strong win off a freshen and first run as gelding. Bak to 1250m here and inside draw the knocks but figures sokid and may have turned corner. Gate one off pace horse at Canterbury. Needs luck

5.Rockin’ Ruga ($3)- Dominant display from front first-up where ov time 3L quicker other B64 on day. Lead Gosfor trial and bolted in there since. Leads and kicks. Does he want further now the ?

2.Discussions ($12)- Got head up and lsot ground first-up. 1250m much more his go and can park outside leader with clean getaway. All 5 wins this dist range. Won Sat race before a break.

9.C’est Davinchi ($15)- Really liked him first-up off the soft trial and he never went a yard. Maybe a touch too close? Want to see him again. 3.5kg swing on Kolding but beaten a long way by him. Likes Canterbury.

Other runners:

1.Chapelco ($38)- Touch short for him first-up. Only goes up 50m here. Better horse when he can lead and npt sure that’s the case here.

3.Forever Newyork ($25)- Freshened- Synthetic hoof filler again. Chased home Country Champs Qual, before that good winner here wet track in weak form race.

6.Charraterra-Scratched. Came from off slow speed LS and far too good. Chased home Kylease prior. Where does he get too from gate?

7.Handfast ($38)- blink off, tongue tie off, visor 1st time. Capable but hasn’t won for 31 starts now. Plenty of chances! Just fair LS and 11th run this campaign.

8.Matowi-Scratched.Won fup last prep this t/d in race where went hard and came home slow. Liked the way he closed off recent Cant trial.Won 2/3 here. Low gate, get back horse?

10.My Maher ($101)- Quick back up after running on OK in Wagga Town Plate. Gets back a long way here.

 

Race 7

Overview: Open race to finish the day. I reckon Golden Hits is over the odds here and he just found the 1000m a touch sharp first up. I would prefer 1200m but $17 each-way seems overs for a horse that is going to get the gun run and trialled well leading into this prep as well. Gododdin is first up in a year but has trialled well, while Walk The Runway is two from two and did produce some solid figures second up. Koonunga can also bounce back after disappointing last start.

Advice: Golden Hits the value.

Confidence rating: 5/10.

Selections: 2-9-3-11

2.Golden Hits ($11)- Trialled really well and then had chance first-up when not far away in solid rating race. Yet to place 2 2nd up runs?

9.Gododdin ($4)- Trial in Jan and a break and then another one recently where 2nd to Nature Strip 1045m Rwick. Fup in a year, did beat Charge and then 1.4L away G3. JMAC rides.

3.Koonunga ($8)- Started fav and was slow to recover first-up. Jock said did’t feel comfortable in action and slow to recover. Won t/d last prep and then fair after that.

11.Walk The Runway ($10)- Solid win first-up where time was 6L quicker than 1000m 3YO Mdn.  Another level again but hard to knock with the upside.

Other runners:

1.All Stand-Scratched. Seemed to have chance last two runs.

4.Gunnaza ($27)- 3WNC on speed and too good 900m Ncle LS. 2nd and 4th won since. All wins 1000m and below. Yet to win 5 goes 1100.

5.Lancaster Bomber ($16)- Gelded, nice soft trial coming in. Form last prep good enough, I doubt it. Won a weak form race last time in.

6.Flash Fibian ($24)-Better LS but is that the right form. 2YO race went quicker than his race LS and off slower tempo early too.

7.Medovina ($10)- QL400 and 200m splits of the day first-up bit her fresh runs have been the best in the past. Can she reproduce? McEvoy on wide gate drifts back.

8.Dansu ($33)- led and caught on line in B66 Nowra. Q 3 x 1100 races on day but other two maidens.

10.Nicof ($109)- Last few runs just fair. All wins 1000m or below and 5 starts this distance 1 placing.

12.Moccasin Miss ($10)- Went forward and just missed in two horse battle latest. Doubt she lands in first half In this field early but will run on. No superstar but good track is key. Just one placing 7 starts here.



Brad Davidson - Sky Racing

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