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Sky Racing Brad Davidson Warwick Farm May 15

 May 10 2019

Warwick Farm May 15

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less. A few more bets on most occasions will be included here to spread the risk across a race day.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

Normal strategy (65 unit spend)

Race 1 no.9 Peralta 5 unit place at $8

Race 2 no.6 Smart Horse 10 unit win at $4.40

Race 3 no.9 Mookareena 5 unit win at $13 and 10 unit place at $3.50

Race 4 5 unit boxed trifecta- 1,4,5

Race 5 no.6 Mocassin Miss 5 unit win at $9.50 and 10 unit place at $3.10

5 unit multi ($4.96)- Race 4 no.1 Bajan Gold to place ($1.60) into Race 5 no.6 Moccasin Miss to place ($3.10)

10 unit quaddie: (starts r4, 13.88%): 1st leg: 1,4,5,3. 2nd leg: 6,3,4. 3rd leg: 6,10,3. 4th leg: 5,7. 

Betting results since started on April 20: +116.9u, (17%POT, 680 unit outlay))Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (2 units spend)

Race 2 no.6 Smart Horse 0.5 unit at $4.40

Race 3 no.9 Mookareena 0.25 unit at $13 and 0.5 unit at $3.50

Race 5 no.6 Mocassin Miss 0.25 unit win at $9.50 and 0.5 unit place at $3.10

Betting results since started on April 20: +5.55 unit profit (26%POT, 21 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Track bias

14/02/2018       wf         3m        g4          Fence or 1-2l near it off. Wider the better again it seemed                                           

16/05/2018       WF        3m        G4         Even track could run on and win anywhere                                                    

11/07/2018       WF        3m        g4          OK early and then getting to middle last four an advantage                                         

3/10/2018         WF        3M        G4         Touch on pace early but prob 1-2 off best- got wider later in day and fence no good then                                                

28/11/2019       WF        3M        h8-9      Maybe a touch on pace but didn't play right out wide 2-5 off prob best part but norm wider when wet. Inside slightly inferior                                                     

16/01/2019       WF        3m        G4         Pretty fiar track. No disadv be on pace. Rail maybe 1/2 length to one length off. Most winners off fence but last winner fence                                                     

13/02/2019       WF        3M        g4          Just hard to make ground here. No winner further back than 4th. No real lanes.   

27/03/2019       WF        3M        h8         Middle of track here and not easy to make ground as rule.

Track assessment- Normally a pretty fair rail position when on a dry track. Hard fence probably not the place to be.

Wind: Light winds.

Preview:

Race 1

Overview: Tough race to kick off the day. Rari and Bandersnatch top two picks without any confidence here. The blinkers come off Peralta and he was just too fired up first-up with them on. He can improve out of sight. Gypsy Snitz was held up until late in the piece first-up and ran on OK. Plenty of other chances!

Advice: Could speck Peralta a place but only very small.

Confidence rating on race: 2/10.

Selections: 5-1-9-14

5.Rari ($6.50)- Slow out but strong late first-up in race that featured JJ Atkins fav and Reloaded. 1400 looks logical step and only one trial coming in, Was $61.

1.Bandersnatch ($6)- OK fresh in Sat race, 3WNC and blinkers backfired keen second up and then led and bolted in latest. Didn’t beat much but posted good figures!

9.Peralta ($22)- Blinkers off- Bit keen and close with blinkers on first-up. Caught the eye on debut last prep. Improver here.

14.Gypsy Snitz ($22)- Thought the run was better than it looked first-up. Held up until the 150m and then worked home OK.  ½ TO Gypsy Diamond who won up to 2000m.

Other chances:

4.Olympic ($8)- Blinkers 1st time- Run on strongly last start and tickover trial 3rd since closed off nicely under no pressure. Month and a half between runs but that tickover trial. McDonald sticks. Slowest of 4 x 1200m races on day- Hard to make ground though.

2.Macambo ($8)- QL200 of race debut then eased down late when won well second up. Late figures nothing wow there but solid win all the same (second placed WF in past). 25 days since last run.

6.Saint Ambrose ($9.50)- No room when warming up late fresh and then WNC and ran well WF LS. Race time wuicker than 2 x B70 on day. 1400m looks OK. Wide gate.

10.Bacchus ($17)- Made a meal of the start two back and was actually good. Got back off strng tempo and knocked up a touch late after looking as if he would run into it. Gets back again?

13.Dorothyofoz ($15)-Led two starts to date and faded late. Should lead again. Multiples/

Other runners:

3.Antonio Padre ($14)- Had gun run and had chance two starts this prep. Still some developing to do.

7.Galaxy ($45)- Got home well late Wellington Boot and then 1100 to 1600 at stakes level and a bridge too far. Back to 1400m now.

8.Witchblade ($135)- Ear Muffs first time. Sat up on speed and faded badly on debut. More conservative perhaps with ear muffs on?

11.Atomic Bomb ($541)- Hard to have on recent form.

12.Dodecanese ($55)-Blinkers 1st time. 3WNC last start and kept coming. Dubbo form? 1100 to 1400m.

 

Race 2

Overview: I’m surprised Smart Horse isn’t favourite here and he has been well backed from $8 already. He bolted in on debut (running quicker time than the benchmark 54 and 64 on the day and the second horse he beat by 5 ¼ lengths there won a maiden at his following start and has since placed at Caufield. He went straight to Listed level in the Bendigo Guineas where he sat three wide n cover on a very fast speed and was entitled to fade. His recent jump out at Bendigo was very good and he looks the bet of the day at $4.60. Bentley Magic and Quick Nick look the dangers, while the favourite and second fav (Bergen and Plenty) should both drift. Bergen is unbeaten but it was a blanket finish second up and he seems short enough.

Advice: Smart Horse to win but price is quickly evaporating.

Confidence rating on race: 7/10.

Selections: 6-5-4-2

6.Smart Horse ($4)- Bolted in on debut when running quicker time B54 and 64 on day (second horse won and city placed Caulfield since) then 3WNC on speed second-up in Bendigo Guineas and faded. Went too hard swoopers race (form not great out of it). $6.50 Bendigo Guineas. Freshened, won well recent Bendigo jump out 800m.

5.Bentley Magic ($6.50)- Set up for him fresh but he was held up until last 200m where he still managed, to win. 4th QL600 of day. 2nd Rhytmic Pulse beaten 1/2L and since beaten .2L behind Bergen.

4.Quick Nick ($8)- Back on dry and led and held on at Wyg in OK figures, Struck wet tracks two starts prior. Bit of speed here but will probably want the front?

2.Bergen ($4.50)- 2/2. Blanket finish latest but mdn to B64 and won well.Stays 1t 1300m. 1L quicker other B64 on day. Claim helps, good gate.

Other runners:

1.Ulusaba ($11)- Three trials just fair. Likely to roll forward. City winner last time in, Wins 1600 to 1800,

3.Plenty ($6.50)- Went hard in front first-up and stuck on. Speed here. Does he take a sit? Bumped into nice enough horse fresh.                    

7.Rexx- Scratched. 5th in recent tickover trial OK Rwick 1050m. Won mdn when soft lead at Gosford last start. Reckon touch overrated whole way through? 6 subs st out of that 0 placings.

8.Miss Rodarte ($111)- Hard to have.

 

Race 3

Overview: Happy to have a throw at the stumps with Mookareena here and I thought her run last time out was good. She was held up for half of the straight and still got past Perfect Pitch late yet is at a much bigger price here. Time Raid has been runner up his past three starts and should have won last start, while Perfect Pitch, Fun Fact and Rexx (seems short?) all have claims.

Advice: Mookareena worth a speck each-way (more the place).

Confidence rating on race: 5/10.

Selections: 9-4-2-1

9.Mookareena ($7.50)- Should have finished closer at Wagga when got back, held up half straight then got past Perfect Pitch late. Won prior. Back on firmer suits.

4.Time Raid ($4.50)- Runner up last three starts. Bit stiff latest when run off track by ahorse and then winner got up on inside. 3rd horse LS won at NEwc since. Winner in race two back run well in Hway in town since.

2.Perfect Pitch ($6)- 12 runs since last win. Sat up pn speed and had hance at Wagga. Was coming again late. Beaten by a subs winner prior.

1.Fun Fact ($6)- Just fair last start but was 3WNC last two starts prior. Now 1800 back to a mile? Been up a while>? 8 runs since last win. 61.5kg a leveller.

Other chances:

5.Rexx ($6.50)- Just too short here.5th in recent tickover trial OK Rwick 1050m. Won mdn when soft lead at Gosford last start. Reckon touch overrated whole way through? 6 subs st out of that 0 placings.

8.Northern Voyage ($13)- Rolled forward and held on to score LS 2L quicker B70 on day. Wet quick early.No winner further back than 4th on the day though. Does he want further now? 3rd won a mdn wince, 2nd placed in Cl1.

Other runners:

3.Eighteen Carrot ($21)-Won mdn last prep then 3WNC and just fair after that. One soft trial coming in.

7.Foxy’s Foxinator ($14)- Led and caught in shafows of post last start. Been knocking on door in country grade. Rolls forward.

 

Race 4

Overview: One last chance for Bajan Gold and this looks his race. The tempo was against him last start and he didn’t have a lot of luck prior to that. Angel Of Heaven clocked some very good late splits last start, while California Longbow was stiff not to win last start. Zoffany’s Lad should be running on as well.

Advice: Bajan Gold to win or boxed trifecta- 1,2,4,5.

Confidence rating on race: 6/10.

Selections: 1-4-5-3

1.Bajan Gold ($2.60)- Tempo against LS and should have won two back. Busting to win a race and won’t get a better chance.

4.Angel Of Heaven ($4.80)- Real sprint home and won last start in race where 3rd and 5th placed since. Zipped home in 2nd QL400 of meeting. Mum Lights Of Heaven won a Bris Cup.

5.California Longbow- ($7) Probably should have won LS and held up until it was all over in sprint home. Dead heat win prior to that. Improving type. First go 2200m/

3.Soldier Of Love ($12)- Last start winner but soft time on speed and figures out of race just fair. 2nd horse placed B70 Sandown since.

Other runners:

6.Concessions ($58)- Doubt was on best ground last start but Bajan Gold got past her easily there. Needs to lift on recent efforts.

7.Exflytations ($233)- Hard to have on recent runs.

8.Hostwin Epoanui- Scratched. Got back, cirncled and stuck on. Run to suit, maybe entitled to do a touch more?

9.Mrs Madrid ($12)- Mid race move and working for most of the race LS. Was almost a month between runs there and tired. Better on wet ground? Beaten less 2L Adrian Knox prior.

10.Cleverley ($25)- Won Mdn last start but over 37S l600. Second horse beaten 7L Nowra start prior, 3rd horse beaten 6L Wyong start prior. No.

11.Everly Girl ($38)- Can bob up from time to time but needs to improve. Looking elsewhere.Only won 3/38.

12.Loves To Rock ($38)- Won Mdn in slow time and in weak form race and then wanted to lay in and out and all pver shop in straight last start at KG. Needs to improve.

13.By Design ($233)- Hard to recommend. Lost the plot and then came again LS

14.Chief Kidder ($78)- Can overdo it a touch. OK last start from the back at WF but gets a long way back from the gate if he gets a run.

Race 5

Overview: Respecting Nangami here who is two from two but I’m happy to speck Moccassin Miss at the odds just because I think she is overs. She hasn’t won for a while but she had to be ridden upside down last start, likes her home track and gets her preferred dry conditions. Nangami the horse to beat.

Advice: Something small Mocassin Miss each-way (mainly place).

Confidence rating on race: 6/10.

Selections: 6-3-4-10

6.Moccasin Miss ($7.50)- Shou,d have won first-up then went forward nasty gate and outbobbed late by a horse that has run well since 4th Wagga Town Plate. 16 st or 523 DLW the knock but gets another chance. Home track.

3.Nangami- ($4.20) 2/2. Figures out of races OK. Got a soft lead latest and kept going. 10 subs st behind her for one placing so far. Takes a sit here?

4.Echo Gem ($6)- 61KG first-up and battled on well and then led easily and caught last 300m but Satcity grade latest. Just looks a bit of pressure here?

10.Dolly’s Due ($9)- QL600 of day first-yp when run  off feet at the short trip 1000m. Beat Up Trumpz last prep and top 2 7 of 16 on good tracks. Hasn’t finished further back than 4th three runs at WF INC one length off Resin.

Other runners:

1.Aperitif ($16)- Inside gate helped LS to try and get her to switch off as overraced LS and didn’t finish off. Raced restricted room two back but not in hunt when pulling up with throat abnormality. Overraced three back not far away. McDonald on. Good speed expected.

2.Cuban Sizzle ($13)- Won her past two. Won Tamw and then right spot and right time LS. Don’t like the widr draw here. 5 subs st out of race 0 placings.

5.Leami Astray ($22)- 9 RLW. Started fav first-up but was disappointing. Race run slower than 2YO race on day. Claim helps but needs to improve.

7.Phoebe’s Lass ($32)- Bobs up from time to time but hard to have last two runs. Colombina form isn’t strong two back (1 placings 11 subs starters).

8.Second Island ($26)- Closed off well two back and then got to outside and finished off well again LS when a few lengths off MMiss. Just whether she has to get too far back again?

9.Dreaming For More ($13)- Beat Outback Diva first-up and that horse has won a maiden by 5L since. Still needs to improve figures wise as L600 slow first0up.

11.Mixed Blossom ($40)- Won here at big odds four back. Ran on Wagga off freshen two back (weak form race) and then led and faded latest in race where 6 subs st 0 placings,

12.One Fire Beach ($315)- Needs to lift.

 

Race 6

Overview: Not a race I’m super keen on. Vega won well last start and I think he is a better horse on wet ground but he is in good form. Primitive finds James McDonald and he is becoming costly but gets blinkers again and should run well. I could speck Keep Up the place if I have a bet. He closed off well over 1400m fresh last prep and should be doing the same over the mile.

Confidence rating on race: 4/10.

Selections: 6-10-3-12

6.Vega ($4)- Consistent prep. Better wet ground but won well latest (3rd Ql200 of day off slow tempo) and good against slow tempo prior v Pelorus Jack. No reason he can’t win again.

10.Primitivo ($4)- long way back off slow tempo and closed off but should do for his class. Becomign costly. Blinkers again, winkers off. McDonald on.

3.Keep Up ($18)- 2 softish trials. Closed off OK latest 1200m. Best work late 1400m last prep. Now 1600m fresh. Place hope?

12.Kaapfever ($11)- Better LS. 1.5L off Vega and gets a 4kg swing on that horse. Both wins at a mile so no surprise to see him improve.

Other chances:

9.Evopex ($16)- Chased home Editors (won again next start) and they gapped the rest (race was run length quicker Cl1 but mdn went quicker (diff race shape). Then just missed last start in four way go. Just one winner 17 subs st last two races.

Other runners:

2.Impavido ($21)- Fresh run was OK off slow speed. 3rd QL600 of race. Now straight to mile. 3rd to Interlocuter 2nd up at mile 2 preps back. Big weight, 5 runssince last win.

4.Cape Wickham ($13)- Mile maiden went quicker overall than his race LS. Set up for him to finish off but he did solidly. 60kg the leveller.

5. Yulong Emperor- Scratched.

7.Latin Light ($16)- Freshened. Last 4 wins at 2050m and beyond- Won two straight last prep and then disap before a break.

8.Vontaine ($12)- Showed plenty last prep but disapp in two runs this prep. Might enjoy the slower tempo at a mile?

11.Seababe ($64)- Hard to have on recent form.

13.Le Cavalier ($64)- Pulled his way to front LS because every other horse was crawling.=and held on. Will be back here you would imahine and will need a lot to go right,

 

Race 7

Overview: Charraterra does look the horse to beat in the last. It’s his first crack at 1400m but he has won at 1300m in the past and overcame a slow tempo to score last start. El Mo can improve (too bad to be true last start), while Matowi and King Hewitt will find the line. Other chances too!

Advice: At his right price Charraterra but the horse to beat.

Confidence rating on race: 6/10.

Selections: 5-7-6-1

5.Charraterra ($3.50)- Chased home Kylease first up and then overcame slow tempo toscore well second up. Second horse beaten 2L Inglis Scone Guineas since.

7.El Mo ($8)- 2nd QL200 of day when winning at Orange, then defeated subs winners Anna’s Joy and Akasaki next start at Wellington. Latest disappointing at Hawkesbury. Drawn wide.

6.Matowi ($8.50)- Closed off nicely in a recent trial and did win first up last prep when set up for him that day. Beat home Cossetot last prep. 34.81 Ql600 of all trials on day. Going OK.

1.Destiny’s Own ($10)- Got home OK first-up and extra 100m should help. 7 runs since last win. Won a trial solid fashion prior. Second up record OK (stuck heavy track 2nd up last prep).

Other chances:

10.Guipure ($11)- Found the lune OK first-up when back on inside not best ground at that time of day. 5 subs st out of that race 0 placings. James McDonald sticks.

11.Palmateer ($14)- Closed off very nicely in a recent trial. MCdonald rode in trial but sticks with Guipure (not sure there is anything in this as may have been booked on Guipure a while out and Palmateer was in another race recently and scr).

2.Snipes ($13)- Wide for some of race and didn’t ru n out trip latest. Freshened back from 2040 to 1400m. Led and won two starts prior in convincing fashion. Times were solid as was form. Can he lead?

Other runners:

3.Balmain Boy ($52)- Two trials- Made ground in solid heat latest. Fup long time and maybe better with a run or two?

4.Bringagem ($31)- loved the first-up run where QL200 of the race. Does he need one more, mile and a wet track? That’s the query.

8.Bravissimo ($15)- Worked home OK first-up. Better horse when he can lead. Might be able to do that here? 12 runs since last win.

12.Andaz ($52)- Capable on his day but 20 runs and 704 days since last win now.

13.Catmosphere ($157) - Soft lead two back and caught and then wnc latest but dropped out quickly.

14.Fluidity ($31)- Walked and posted QL200 of race first up. Can he settle closer. Wins 2100m plus. Does he need further now? At a price.

15.Lawan ($157)- Hard to have.



Brad Davidson - Sky Racing

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