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Sky Racing Brad Davidson Rosehill May 18

 May 17 2019

Rosehill May 18

Best bet

Race 7 no.5 Grey Lion $4.80 (rated $3.80)

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less. A few more bets on most occasions will be included here to spread the risk across a race day.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

Normal strategy (110 units so far)

Race 3 no.1 So You Win 5 unit win at $9

Race 5 no.4 Oxford Tycoon 8 unit win at $7

Race 5 no.15 Amorita 2 unit win at $19 and 3 unit place at $5

Race 6 no.10 Jen Rules 7 unit win $9 and 10 unit place at $2.60

Race 6 no.5 Levee Bank 5 unit place tote (reckon she will drift even more)

Race 7 no.5 Grey Lion 30 unit win at $4.80 and 20 unit place at $2

Race 9 no.5 Asterius 5 unit win at $14 and 5 unit place at $4

Race 9 no.9 Monsieur Sisu 5 unit win at $11 and 5 unit place at $3.40

5 unit quaddie: (starts r6, 18.5%): 1st leg: 10,9,5. 2nd leg: 5. 3rd leg: 6,5,13. 4th leg: 5,9,12.

Betting results since started on April 20: +51.9 units, 7%POT, 745 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (4.5 units)

Race 5 no.4 Oxford Tycoon 0.25 unit win at $7

Race 6 no.10 Jen Rules 0.25 unit win at $9 and 0.5 place at $2.60

Race 6 no.5 Levee Bank 0.25 unit place tote

Race 7 no.5 Grey Lion 1.5 unit win at $4.80 and 0.75 unit place at $2

Race 9 no.5 Asterius 0.25 win at $14 and 0.25 place at $4

Race 9 no.9 Monsiuer Sisu 0.25 unit win at $11 and 0.25 unit place at $3.40

Betting results since started on April 20: +3.55 unit profit, (15%POT, 23 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

 

Rail true Rosehill (good track, light winds).

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6          F7              F8          F9

28/01/2017       Rosehill TRUE     G4         Onpace adv- trakc fair otherwise                                            

11/03/2017       Rosehill TRUE     S7-6      3-4 off adv. Fence could winbut inf                                                      

6/05/2017         Rose     TRUE     G4         Fair track                                                   

17/06/2017       Rose      TRUE     H8         Fair 3-6 off best and got wider later. Fence not great                                                

29/07/2017       Rosehill TRUE     G4         Pretty fair a bit on speed to start wth then seemed OK                                                 

27/01/2018       Rosehill TRUE     g4          Pretty fair track this                                                

17/03/2018       Rose      TRUE     G4         Track played well hard fence 1-2L inferior                                          x

5/05/2018         Rosehill              TRUE     G4         Pretty fair track this- wanted to get off rail but few late winners came on rail to suggest it was fine                                                  

16/06/2018       Rosehill TRUE     s6          4-5 off best place but could still win closer to fence                                                     

28/07/2018       Rose      True      g4          Could maeke ground but inside 1-2 lanes advantage- could still win  out wide                                              

8/09/2018         Rosehill True      h8         On pace early but chopped out late and winners came wider                                                  

3/11/2018         Rosehill True      G4         On pace a bit of an advantage but could make sground still. Got wider as day went on. Hard fence not place but could win cppl off                                              

24/11/2018       Rose      True      G4         Confident best ground off fence here 3-4 wide seemed place to be in straight. Just didn't really want to be hard fence or out too wide                                              

19/01/2019       Rose      True      G4         On pace helped. Probably ddin't want to be hard fence. Most winnerd wide but still some close to fence won

16/03/2019       Rose      True      H10       Getting a few off fence here and wider good too.                            

Track assessment- Pretty fair track with rail true particularly this meeting the last two years (those meetings in bold) off a break from racing at Rosehill. Probably playing off fence a touch but fresh track all the same (last meeting back on March 30).

 

Race 1

Overview: Good little two-year-old race this with a host of chances. Hulk gets the blinkers on and a 2kg swing on Diamond Thunder and I reckon DT was on the best part of the track last start (six of the seven winners that day were on the fence in run). There’s not between them here. Espinola clocked the third quickest last 200m split of the day first-up and should relish the solid speed on paper here, while Kubrick clocked easily the best late figures of the day at Cranbourne and it appears as if 1200m should suit here.

Advice: Competitive race with many questions to be answered. Kubrick is not the worst at each-way odds.

Confidence rating on race: 4/10.

Selections: 4-1-2-3

4.Kubrick ($6)- Hard to knock, went slow and scooted home in strong late figures. Easily QL800,600,400,200 day and looks as if 1200m would suit. Second horse well beaten Inglis Nursery only other start but started $9.50.

1.Diamond Thunder ($3.30)- Good win LS, Quicker than 2 benchmark 70s on day (race shape not much different either). Was fence in run (6 of 7 winners on day fence in run) and meets Hulk 2KG worse off. Moight have to work early with speed inside but like this horse.

2.Espinola ($7)- 3rd QL400 of day when overcoming slow tempo to win well Wagga. 1.2s (7L) slower Wagga Town Plate but different race shape. Gets speed on here.

3.Hulk ($4.60)- blinkers 1st time. Meets DT 2kg better off and wasn’t on fence WF. Fitter second-up v DT third up/ Maps OK.

Other chance:

6.Freaky Freckles ($17)- 3L quicker Cl3 on day and was 3L slower race shape to 600m so this was a good win. Naturally big jumo. 1 ½ L off subs Ken Russell Memorial Classic winner only start last prep.

Other runners:

5. Snowzone ($19), 7.Rose To Victory ($233), 8. Jailbreak ($20).

 

Race 2

Overview: Doesn’t get any easier here and this is a pretty tough Highway. The two Matt Dunn horses, Bullet Speed and Green Reign are both one from one and the latter has trialled well leading in and comes back as a gelding. I liked the way Plonka won last time out and the time was there too (3L quicker than the benchmark 58 on the same day).Elm Court beat three subsequent winners first-up and draws a cosy gate. Wyendra won well first-up for a long break, while Vigorish could be the swooper if they really overdo it here.  

Advice: I love these races normally but this gave me a headache. No firm opinion.

Confidence rating: 1/10.

Selections: 9-6-10-13

9.Elm Court ($6)- Won easily first up at Albury although the figures weren’t anything to crow about. 3 winners out of the race though.

6.Green Reign ($4.60)- Won only start last prep in solid enough figures. Two lead in trials have been good.

10.Plonka ($6)- 2nd to a subs Cl1 winner first-up where 2L quivker other mdn. Then 3L quicker B58 on day when bolting in mdn at Tamworth.

13. Wyendra ($14)- Strong win first-up in a long time from the back. Again figures nothing flash.

Other chances:

4.Vigorish ($14)- Too short for him first-up but looks good speed here and he can run on late.

1. Mick The Hat ($10)- Covered ground last start and stuck on OK. That form looks OK for this.

Other runners:

2. Bridyn May ($23), 3. Zardoro ($20), 7. Revolver ($69), 8. So Shy ($35), 12. More Euros ($17), 14. Motime ($69).

Race 3

Overview: I thought So You Win was pretty good first-up and this is a winnable race up to 1800m second-up. He had a good prep last time in and he has won two from three second-up. Jazzland was solid in town fresh and is another who should appreciate the extra trip. Vega has franked that form with a good run on Wednesday. Outside of that, it’s a pretty skinny race if Welsh Legend and Aliferous head to Queensland as expected.

Advice: So You Win to win.

Confidence rating: 5/10.

Selections: 1-2-12-11

1.So You Win ($4.50)- 2/3 second up. Found the line fresh and 1800m looks naturalprogression. Race will loose depth with a few heading to Qld.

2.Mushaireb ($5)- Just a bit keen in his races which is a concern at 1800m. Good first win, then OK when keen second up.

12.Jazzland ($5)-Solid return fresh and extra 200m will help here. Draws well, no weight on back.

11.Wild About Her ($14)- Sense of timing here third up out to a trip. Form out of last race not great bu but seems big odds.

Other hopes:

10.Eugene’s Pick ($8)- Wide off a strong tempoi latest and best of those on pace. 1800m a concern but should roll forward.

5.Maddison Avenue ($8)- Could get a soft lead again like LS. This looks tougher though and figures/form LS fair at best ( 5 subs st 1 pl).

Other runners 3. Braces ($27), 7. Semper Fidelis ($14).

Race 4

Overview: Messy race. Star Of The Seas has the best credentials but he probably gets back here and there doesn’t seem to be a heap of speed on paper. Savacool normally goes well fresh and forget her last run at the end of last prep where she pulled up with cardiac arrythmia. Turnberry rolls forward and can prove hard to catch, while Harmattan gets a good run and Veladero can kick on speed. I haven’t the international, Mawaany Machine. I can’t tell you much about his overseas form but he has been well backed. Connections said on social media that they feel the 1500m might be a bit sharp and it looks that way on what he has done in the past.

Advice: Star Of The Seas on top but not a race I’m keen on.

Confidence rating: 4/10.

Selections: 4-6-12-5

4.Star Of The Seas ($3.60)- Just in great form this prep. Best credentialled runner but gets back and not a heap of speed. One to beat.

6.Savacool ($6.50)- Normally sprints well fresh. Cardiac arrythmia LS. Trials have been good, particularly latest where cruised to line.

12. Harmattan ($8)- Honest, draws well.

5.Turnberry ($10)- Up on speed, rolls along and can kick. Disap LS but form prior was good when WNC a few times as well.

Other chances:

7.Mawaany Machine ($12)- Connections feel he may need a touch further but winnable race and has been backed early. All form says longer.

9. Insensata ($14)- Good win last start in solid late splits but can this horse reproduce?

11. Veladero ($27)- Not hopeless as gets a good run on speed. Form out of Qld races he has been constesting isn’t great.

Other runners:

2. Up N Rolling ($27), 8. Dagny ($54), 10. Hogmanay ($20), 14. Unbiased ($27)

Race 5

Overview: I think Amorita might be sneaking under the radar with plenty of speed engaged here. She was stiff last start and clocked the second quickest last 200m split of the day in the process. The $17 is overs. It’s not normally my set up to be with a horse first-up from a long spell but I reckon Oxford Tycoon might be flying under the radar as well here. He suffered a tear to his ligament when disappointing at the end of last prep but his two trials have been outstanding. The latest was run in the quickest last 600m of the day (quicker than Newsfan comfortably and she was given an urge along). His two-year-old form around Sandbar reads well for this. A long time off means naturally fitness is the obvious concern though but I think this is a nice horse. Call Me Royal is a beauty and she has had a couple of soft trials without the blinkers on (they go on race day).

Advice: Back Oxford Tycoon to win and something on Amorita each-way.

Confidence rating: 7/10.

Selections: 4-15-6-8

4.Oxford Tycoon ($5.50)- 2YO form reads well. Off a long break but had a minor tear to its near-fore suspensory ligament at end of last prep. Box seats, strong tempo first-up query perhaps but two trials have been super (running time!, Quickest L600 of trials and quicker than Newsfan on day). Fitness the only ? but looks a nice horse.

15.Amorita ($11)- $17 seems a big price here. Should have won first-up but figures were OK out of Hway. Back to 1100m but no weight, speed on, has to be strong late.

6.Call Me Royal ($5.50)- Soft trials, no blinkers- they go on race day- has to run well. Can burn candle at both ends. Speed here though.

8.Transmitter ($14)- Trials have been solid enough and had a good prep last time in. Not sure that Divine Breeze form is strong enough but closes off.

Other chances:

10. Exceltic ($10)- Got home OK last start and should relish the extra trip.

14. Burning Crown ($12)- Another one that’s had a few chances of late.

2.Skyray ($15)- Did win first-up in a canter last prep 1100m Hawkesbury in avg figures. Good speed here.

Other runners:

1. Dynamited ($15), 3. Above And Beyond ($20), 7. Fiera Vista ($144), 9. Captain Courageous ($48), 12. Legislation ($48), 13. Hostwin Supreme ($24),

 

Race 6

Overview: Jen Rules fell in two back in a Class 1 but her run in a Group 3 since was strong and the form out of it has been OK. Hard to go past Reelem In Ruby and she looks the horse on the up here. She almost overcame the bias (first two lanes an advantage) and tempo to score first-up and then overcame the bias (only winner to win not on the fence in run on that day) last start in a race set up for her. The knock here is the lack of speed in the race but she is progressive. I could speck Levee Bank the place. She has a tendency to miss the start which is an obvious worry but she can reel off a split late and the $8 a place looks overs. Her run in the Wagga Town Plate was good and she has been competitive in Sydney before.

Advice: Jen Rules has to be value at $9 each-way.

Confidence rating on race: 6/10.

Selections: 10-9-5-8

10.Jen Rules ($6.50)- Fell in two back in Class 1 and then was good in a solid Group 3 last time out (beat She’s Furline there who defeated the likes of Strome and co next start when winning on the Kenso). Looks a touch of overs here from a good draw.

9.Reelem In Ruby ($3.50)- Should be 2/2 this prep. Bias/tempo beat her first-up and then she was the only horse to win not on the fence in run at Warwick Farm last start. Set up for her that day though. Lack of speed here the concern?

5.Levee Bank ($22)- Missed the start hopelessly first up (can do this) but flashed home in Wagga Town Plate. If jumps can run on here. 1400m as far as she wants though.

8.Eawase ($12)- Has been racing in stronger company and

Other chances:

6.Toryjoy ($11)- Still doing things wrong in her trials. Just overraces and expends energy. Cost herself a few races last prep.

11. Alnaas ($14)- Overall race sectionals weren’t outstanding when winning LS but she gave them a start and beat them. She was on the best part of the track too.

Other runners:

1. Shokora ($15), 3. Strome ($15), 4. Aeecee Tong De ($50), 7. Our Belisa ($178), 12. Bella Success ($15), 14. Constellations ($15)

Race 7

Overview: Looks a good race for the Grey Lion here and he was pretty dominant in the JRA Plate. He stays at 2000m but has trialled in outstanding order since and he actually clocked the third quickest last 600m of the day last start. He maps well and barring bad luck, looks hard to beat. Live And Free looks the danger. He is coming out of weaker races but drops 8kg here and he should be close to peaking third up (may need half a run more at 2000m?). Emperor’s Way and Girl Tuesday look next best.

Advice: Grey Lion looks a good bet here. I know he was big odds last start but that’s not a reflection of how he is going. He is just flying this prep.

Confident rating: 8/10- most confident race of the day.

Selections: 5-12-3-8

5.Grey Lion ($3.80)- Started ridiculous odds the other day, had to go right back from the gate and beat them with a leg in the air. Only goes up 3.5kg, draws a gate to settle much closer and has trialled super since. He is flying and looks a good bet.

12.Live And Free ($6)- Sense of timing about him third up but I would probably prefer 1800m.Will the 2000m see him out? Coming out of weaker grade but drops 8kg. On the up.

3.Abdon ($8.50)- Held up but no match for Grey Lion two back and then won Wagga Cup on wet ground. Beat Grey Lion three back but that was a heavy track. Just think he would prefer it wet but runs well.

8.Emperor’s Way ($9)-Consistent but I reckon he prefers Randwick. Dry track helps.

Other chances:

13.Girl Tuesday: Bolted in latest in good time on the Kenso. Didn’t beat much but may have turned the corner?

Other runners: 1. Destiny’s Kiss ($53), 6. Taikomochi ($20), 9. Alward ($26), 10. Black On Gold ($40), 11. High Bridge ($321), 14. Tamarack ($23), 15. Kellstorm ($80), 16. White Boots ($27).

Race 8

Overview: Deprive has trialled up well and looks the horse to beat here but he has been $4-$2.90 and he seems short enough now considering he will need luck back in the ruck. Newsfan is in a similar boat but she produced some dazzling sectionals first-up last prep. She has also trialled up really well for this. Zonk got an easy lead first-up but still zipped home in strong late splits and interesting to note she clocked an overall time quicker than Deprive (off a slower early tempo too!) when they raced in different 1200m races on the same day at Randwick in late December. Desert Lord looks the other main hope. He is a work in progress but is starting to relax a bit better and should get a good run here. He was gelded before last prep and has turned the corner.

Advice: Deprive the horse to beat but the price is gone ($4-$2.90).

Confidence rating on race: 7/10.

Selections: 6-5-13-8

6.Deprive ($2.50)- Only defeat fresh was first-up last prep when he struck a wet track. Can reel off a big split on his day. Interesting to note Zonk clocked an overall time quicker than Deprive (off a slower early tempo too!) when they raced in different 1200m races on the same day at Randwick in late December when he walked in. Still looks promising.

5.Newsfan ($5)- How consistent is she? Yet to miss a top two finish in 8 starts. Best late figures of day first-up last prep where didn’t beat much and off slow tempo. Flies fresh.

13.Desert Lord ($6)- Hasn’t really shot the lights out time wise yet (even last start when walked in, figures just fair?) but turned the corner with gelding op and blinkers off last prep. 1200m short of best but maps well and work in progress improving.

8. Problem Solver ($21)- Distant fourth pick.

Other runners:

1. Gresham ($25), 4. Top Striker ($25), 7. Piracy ($25),14. La Chica Bella ($128), 15. Island Missile ($32), 16. Oriental Runner ($21).

 

Race 9

Overview: Good race to finish the day and there is speed galore here. I could speck a couple at odds here but it’s a tough race. One of those is Asterius. I know he is a bit of a ‘gunna’ but I just love his fresh runs and he was climbing all over their backs at 1300m fresh last campaign. He gets the same set up here (one soft trial coming in) with an extra 100m and plenty of speed and he can only be strong late at $15. The other is Monsieur Sisu and his fresh run last prep was enormous when he went far too hard up on speed and was only caught by the swoopers late. If he takes a sit here, he can be strong late. Expect Ronstar to head to Queensland, while Nicco Lad is a chance (might settle with this strong speed) but he is yet to convince he will run out a strong 1400m.

Advice: Asterius and Monsieur Sisu’s worth small specks at the odds.

Confidence rating on race: 5/10.

Selections: 5-9-12-13

5.Asterius ($8)- Hard horse to catch and will be spotting them a big start but his fresh runs are great. Won fup 1400m two preps back and then climbing all over their backs first up last prep at 1300m. One soft trials his normal approach, can have last say.

9.Monsieur Sisu ($7.50)- Trials have been good (without blinkers, they go on race day) and I just want him to take a sit here and not get caught in this frantic speed battle that looks set to eventuate. First up run last prep was enormous when he went far too hard outside the lead and then kicked, rolled back to the fence (inferior ground on day) and was beaten two lengths.

12.Calculated ($8)- Improving with racing. Freshen but with a trial in between. Just gets the right run but has been a touch disappointing since returning.

13. Red Currant ($10): Like him as a horse but I can’t back him because he is two months between runs with the blinkers on.

Other runners:

1. Conarchie ($75), 2. Mapmaker ($12), 3. Manhattan Mist ($14), 8. Echo Jet ($15), 10. Gauguin ($151), 11. Kurnel Jaxon ($30), 15. Rockin Ruga ($12), 16. Cuban Royale ($19), 17. Something Fast ($25), 18. Chalk ($15).



Brad Davidson - Sky Racing

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