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Canterbury May 22 preview Brad Davidson

 May 21 2019

Canterbury May 22

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less. A few more bets on most occasions will be included here to spread the risk across a race day.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

Normal strategy (25 units spend- only small this week due to finding the meeting tough!)

Race 3 no.2 Pembroke Castle 3 unit win at $9

Race 4 no.1 Pandemonium 5 unit place at $2.50

Race 6 no.4 C’est Davinichi 5 unit win at $8 

12 unit quaddie (starts r4, 5.5%): 1st leg: 1-2-9-4. 2nd leg: 9-2-1. 3rd leg: 4-6-8. 4th leg: 5-1-9-8-12-15.

Betting results since started on April 20: 176.55 units, 21%POT, 860 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (0.5 units spend)

Race 6 no.4 C’est Davinchi 0.25 unit win at $8 

Betting results since started on April 20: 8.62 unit profit, (31%POT, 27.5 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Preview:

 Track: rail out 3m. History with rail out 3m at Canterbury:

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6          F7              F8          F9

14/06/2017       Cant      3m        H9         Pretty fair could run on out wide                           

16/02/2018       Cant      3m        g4          Fair track                                                    

23/05/2018       Cant      3m        G3         Getting to the middle was best but still could be 2-4 off                                                     

4/07/2018         Cant      3m        S7          Fence adv early then wide. Tough to make gorund as a rule early                                                      

15/08/2017       Cant      3m        G4         Could not make ground here- no winner further back third. First two lanes also adv                                                      

16/11/2018       Cant      3m        G3         Pretty fair as always no disadv to be on pace                                          

4/01/2019         Cant      3m        G4         Very fair track no lanes and could make ground or win from front. Perfect                                         

23/01/2019       Cant      3M        G3         On pace no real lanes but on pace a medium adv

15/02/2019       Cant      3m        G4         Not easy to win from the back as a rule but prob more tempo related. Reckon hard fence wasn't great. Seemed to be lanes 2-3 best.                                

Assessment- Perhaps focussing on those runners on pace but not too bad this rail position.

Wind: Light.

Race 1

Overview: Looks a race in two between Aeecee Beau and Kordia. Not much between them but I think they will run the quinella.

Advice: Play the quinella if you want 2,3.

Confidence rating: 7/10 (confident winner comes from 2 or 3).

Selections 3-2-1-8

3.Aeecee Beau ($3)- Really nice debut where third Saturday city race. Time out of race was super-.2s quicker B70 on day and QL600 too. 1250M looks natural progression. Gate 1 could be tricky if he doesn’t lead?

2.Kordia ($3.40)- On the right part of the track first-up but like the way he found the line late in same race as Bigboyroy. JMAC goes on, extra 50m, draws to stalk the speed. 11.48 QL200 of race.

1.Bigboyroy ($6.50)- Wanted to get off the track first-up and not easy to make ground out wide that day. Comes through right race- 3L quicker than fillies race 2yo 1200 on day.

8.Moreno ($17)- Slow out but got home OK on debut at Kenso track (track played fair that day). Out of an O’Reilly mare and siblings won over 1400m and beyond up to 3200m. Extra trip helps.

Other runners:

4.Fasano ($35)- Two trials have been OK. Finished off ok without blinkers on (time trials just fair though) and the blinkers go on race day. Don’t think he has ever worn blinkers in 4 career trials? Out of G3 winning mare Florentina.

5.Pancho ($52)- Blinkers off, gelded. Well held only run last prep. 2 trials- wide and fair first one. Closed off well late 2nd trial in easily quickest 897m heat morning- broke 53s. next quickest-54.14- more than 1s off.

6.Petronius-Scr. two trials last time in avg. Blinkers on trial this time, led and won in slow time and slow l600 under little pressure though. Should roll forward. Blinkers on race day, lugging bit on too.

7.Shaibanat ($26)- Tickover trial in between races where he closed off well enough at Rosehill. Just fair at Hawkesbury last start where he overraced early stages. Time out of debut run not great.

9.Bells Approaching ($70)- Blinkers 1st time. Back and wide 1st up and worked to the line OK. Drawn awkwardly again? Beaten a fair way by Kordia LS.

10.Vaporizing ($17)- Wide and working at both starts to date. Race comes through LS was .2s quicker other 1000m mdn on day (before 600m). Chased home Devachan prior. Are they the right form lines?

Race 2

Overview: Maddi Rocks gets the gun run but I thought she was short enough all the same here. Born To Play is the interesting runner. Her trial was super back in April but she draws off the track here. The late market could tell the story with her.

Confidence rating on race: 5/10 (late market moves tell us more).

Advice: Born To Play if there is a move for her late could be the one but she needs luck. Maddi Rocks gets every chance.

Selections: 4-2-12-8

4.Born To Play ($4.50))- Hasn’t been seen since only trial April 8 where chased home Group placegetter Villami and was very strong through line. Time nothing flash. Mum a half sis to More Joyous.

2.Maddi Rocks ($3.50)- One nice trial and then good at this track first up when chased home California Zimbol (wide when 5th in Listed Bill Carter in Qld since). 3L slower than the boys that day but gets good run again.

12.L’Cosmo ($7.50)- 3rd Rwick 750m only trial this time in- Jumped well, took sit, closed off well. Quickest 4 x 748 trials on day. Started well in market only run last prep where got back very strong speed and just fair wet track.

8.Rockarosa ($22)- Won only trial this time in at WF. Time was .7s quicker Nudge’s heat on day (4L) and that was all L600. L600 of 33.8 was sound. 1 x 800m trial, fup 1250m?

Other runners:

1.Single Blonde ($11)-Just missed first-up and then led, kicked and tired late Scone when bumped into a Group horse. Now 1250m. Rolls forward.

3.All Saints’ Eve ($19)- Jumped ¼ length slow, drifted back and found line well when 3rd Rhill 900m in only trial. Time OK. Family got over further so expect to be hitting the line.

5.Islands ($33)- Two trials jumped well up on speed and stuck on Hawkesbury and Rosehill. Might have chased home a cppl of nice horses at Rhill (second horse there Rotator G3 placed debut). Needs to lift on form last prep.

6.Nudge ($33)- Slow out only trial WF, railed through and won trial under some pressure. 34.5L600 over the 800 wasn’t quick. 2nd horse in trial beaten 5L in Woodlands at Scone.

7.Palurien ($22)- No where to go first trial Canterbury when went to line without being fully tested. Next one, ran on OK late. Both trial times not great. The half bro to Kementari.

9.Saigon ($27)- 1 trial this time in- 3rd in Rockarosa hear- under nopressure there not beaten far where Rockarosa given shake along. Problem is slow out both career trials? Mum won 1400-2400m.

10.Seraph ($67)-Closed off solidly enough in two trials this time in. Beaten 5.5L by Maddi Rocks in first trial but under little pressure like her. Closed off OK in 2nd trial in slow time under some riding,

11.Strange Charm ($67)-7th Rhill only trial not beaten far. Jumped well, took sit, fair late but not a lot of room. One of slowest heats of morning.

Race 3

Overview: Another tricky race. Pembroke Castle should have won first-up last prep but it was a weak race all the same. Can you run on today (we should know that by now). Notation gets a good run and has decent form lines. Musume can run a cheeky race from the front, while Bare Naked Lady and Stella Sea Sun are both capable.

Advice: Pembroke Castle could be worth a small speck if you can run on but it’s not a race I have any confidence in.

Selections: 2-4-8-3

2.Pembroke Castle ($8)- Two trials not asked for a great deal in them. Good thing beaten this track fup last prep 1100m although it was a weak race time and form wise (6 subs st 1 pl). Had blinkers 1st time that day. No blinkers here. Has to go back from gate?

4.Notation ($4.50)- Soft time on speed two back where came through slowest 3 x 1200m races on day, then runner up My Pendant (same horse won race two back) Flem when slowest 3 x 1400m races on day mainly race shape though. Form OK. Back to 1250m from 1400m.

8.Musume ($8)- Bit keen and slow to recover when well in market fup. Soft lead second up 1400m wet track kicked on to score. Second horse there beaten 6L Bendigo B70 since. Should roll forward and give them something to catch. Beat two subs winners when won mdn last prep and 2nd to Cossetot prior. Back to 1250m- drops 3kg.

3.Bare Naked Lady ($6.50)- Soft lead two back when runner up Charraterra (7 subs st out of that 1 pl), then soft time on speed again when beaten 2L Scone Guineas.Doubt she saw out 1400m so back to 1250m suits.

Other chances:

1.Marmaris ($19)- Two soft trials coming in where got back and wasn’t asked for much. Needs luck. Two run just fair last prep.

5.Zavance ($19)- Soft trial coming in where got back and found line. Expect to run on but inside gate for horse get off speed a worry. Won at Wyng 1350m off freshen last prep and then lack tempo cost her against Judge Judi.

6.Belladeel ($8)- Gelded, ear muffs on. Cov ground first-up but disapp- Jock said horse was disingenuous. Back to trials where keen and not asked for anything in straight where down the track there. Won weak mdn last prep. 1250m will he settle? Ear muffs could help.

7.Stella Sea Sun ($6.50)- Chased home Airwing first up where QL200 of the race and then too good for a weak field where won at Newc in OK figures (1L quicker Bergen who has won city since). 2nd horse there beaten Beaudeser B58 start prior (2nd).

9.Charmed Princess- Scr.Won a weak Cl1 (10 subs st 1 winner no placings) two back in time .3s slower other Cl1 on day. Never featured last start.

Race 4

Overview: Pandemonium might be a run short but she finds the front here and all three of her wins have came when she has done that in the past. Bella Success didn’t have a lot of luck last weekend at Rosehill and is on the quick back up. Austria will have plenty of supporters but seems short enough all the same.

Advice: Pandemonium could be hard to run down if there is an on pace advantage.

Confidence rating: 5/10.

Selections: 1-2-9-4

1.Pandemonium ($8.50)- Found 1300m touch short. Won tickover trial Scone since under hold. Won this t/d. Expect her to be aggressive from inside. Claim helps. 2/3 win this dist range. 2/3 wins second up.

2.Bella Success ($7.50)-Hard to make ground out wide Canterbury and she finished off well enough. Then only got out last 75m last start when cheq run down straight. Quickest l600 of the race still there. QBU now. Prefers wet but racing well.

9.Austria ($4.50)- Good first-up where came wide on a day where first two lanes were a nice advantage. Entitrled to do a touch more at Scone afterwards when ran on but entitled to in Cl1 but copped a nasty bump at the start. JMAC goes on.

4.Waruna ($6)- 3WNC and working two back when flashed home, missed start, copped check and always well back LS before warming up. QL200 of race off slow tempo. Slow out last two starts?

Other runners:

3.The Closer ($11)- Irregular heart beat LS and two back jock said horse didn’t feel right in action. 4th in G2 prior.

5.Lady Of Shallott ($11)- Freshened. 46DBR.Outclassed last two starts. Didn’t run out trip LS, WNC in KG Classic prior. Did win this t/d back earlier this prep.

6.Alaskan Sun- Scr.Freshen 27 DBR. Started $101 LS and well beaten all 3 runs this prep.

7.Una Fuerza ($32)- hung out and showed signs of being in season LS. Not far away first-up this dist in weak form race.

8.Impetouso ($11)- Just fair fresh, then too good LS when 6Th QL200 of day. On trial at the trip but looks as if will run it. Placegetters well beaten Cl1/Cl2 prior.

10.Neshmiya ($32)- Set up for her and L600 was quite slow. .8s slower other B64 on the day and that was mainly L600.

Race 5

Overview: Medovina has been pretty good at two runs back and gets her chance to breakthrough here. The market should tell the story with Metamorphic and he is first-up since October with one trial. He goes close if he is ready to go. Generalissimo was too bad to be true last start, while Forever Newyork and Rafha’s Choice also have claims.

Advice: Is Metamorphic ready? Medovina if not.

Confidence rating: 5/10.

Selections: 9-2-1-4

9.Medovina ($3.60)- Good from back first-up and then tried to make run out wide latest and struggled (hard to make ground out wide LS).  Late splits have been solid. Two wins this dist range. Ql600 day LS.

2.Metamorphic ($4)- Fup since Oct- 1 trial-1st Rhill 900m- soft trial. Placed 3 of 4 fresh. Capable horse, hasn’t lived up to the hype and does always trial well but boasts a good 2nd to Smartedge here last prep off freshen this t/d on day where went wide on day fence/on pace big adv.

1.Generalissimo ($11)- Looked a target race first up but 3WNC and hung in. Capable and much better than showed LS. 12 runs, 774 DLW the knock. Norton Bit FIRST TIME, Tongue Control Bit OFF AGAIN, Tongue Tie FIRST TIME.

4.Rafha’s Choice ($8.50)- Had chance first-up and then carried 63.5kg and too good LS. Drops 6kg. Q 3 x 1200m races on day (mdn/cl1). Wagga form to city?

Other chance:

3.Forever Newyork ($8.50)- Bumped into a progressive horse LS and stuck on well. Tricky draw now

Other runners:

5.Molasses ($34)- Ran on OK at Parkes LS but not many lose there and then win in the city.

6.Poet’s Advocate ($102)- 3 wide and jockey felt didn’t handle firm ground. Has a tendency to overrace.

7.Stone Cold ($76)- Bit one paced. Overraced two back and then got an OK run from wide gate at KG but faded LS.

8.Kotinos ($17)- Took a sit in recent trial and pushed along to finish second. Fup since November. Won mdn fup two preps back.

10.Prima Stella ($51)- Won two back but slower than Cl1 on the day. Got bck wide gate LS and never featured.

 

 Race 6

Overview: Can speck C’est Davinchi here and he finally gets up to his right trip (3 runs at this t/d for two wins and a nice third when the slow tempo was against him). He chased home a potential Queensland Guineas horse last start. Sonaree the horse to beat.

Advice: Something small on C’est Davinchi to win at $8.

Confidence rating on race: 6/10.

Selections: 4-6-8-1

4.C’Est Davinchi ($7)- Too bad to be true first-up and then much better second up when ran on behind a promising one in Kolding. Yet to miss a place four starts this track and 1550m looks ideal now. Just probably drifts back?

6.Sonaree ($3.40)- Won three back when soft speed but Q late splits of day. R/UP last two raced well both occasions. 2nd horse Pakenham beaten 2.5L G2 in Adelaide since. 16 subs st out of late two races for two placings.

8.Warset ($5.50)- Too good from the back two back and then held up several times in straight but closed off well there late but entitled too (slow L600) and first four home all backmarkers. James McDonald on.

1.Be Mindful ($6)- Never got a real crack at them LS when able to sit closer to the speed. Wide gate the qiery but speed was against him two back. Can win with luck.

Other runners:

2.Redemption Road ($17)- No match for Warset two back (gets a 2.5kg swing in weights). Figures ordinary when 2nd start prior.

3.Tim’s Principal ($43)- Just fair at Hawkesbury and then ran on OK at Scone but entitled too as race run to suit backmarkers.

5.Art Of Excellence($85)- Looks the leader up to this trip. Just hasn’t been finishing off well. Has won at a mile.

7.Kaapfever ($11)- Tempo against LS but worked home OK. Right distance range. Away from home track now. Finished last only run here but was running on OK and then ran into running rail.

9.Jarrett ($85)- Hard to have on last two starts.Keen in run last start.

10.On Angel’s Wings ($11)-Didn’t get out until 150m mark LS but recent form just fair. Well held behind Redemption Road

Race 7

Overview: Lady Evelyn was a bit disappointing last start but the tempo was against her and the run prior (in a weak rating/form race though) was good. She gets a good run here and could be overs. Baeed looks the horse to beat despite 61kg and he is flying. Costas, Lady Cuvee and Savigne are all hopes, while Itasca is one I’ll be including in the quaddie at huge odds. She overdid last start but the blinkers are off here and the nose roll on and at her best, she is capable.

Advice: Tough way to finish! Baeed the horse to beat but Lady Evelyn on top just at the odds.

Confidence rating: 2/10.

Selections: 5-1-9-8

5.Lady Evelyn ($12)- Good in town off slow tempo behind Maddison Avenue (6 subs st 1pl). Then one paced when not suited by slow tempo latest (4th/5th won since). Won 1900m Rosehill last prep.

1.Baeed ($5.50)- Back to back wins in convincing style. Latest .8s quicker 1800m mdn on day. Soft lead but kept on going. 61kg the leveller now.

9.Costas ($6)- Led and won mdn well two back, bit keen latest, had cover, took off before turn and held on for third behind Wolfe and Welsh Legend. Gets another chance. JMac on. Should have won three back.

8.Lady Cuvee ($12)- QL600 of day when overcoming slow tempo to score two back and then tempo against LS where QL200 of the race behind Baeed. 3kg swing Baeed. Met Savigne 3x 2-1 to Lady Cuvee although latest outing Savigne got better of her.

Other chances:

12.Savigne ($6.50)- Chased home Agassi two back and then narrow second Hawkesbury- Unsuccessful with protest there. McEvoy on. Tempo ag there. Chance despite yet to win a race.

15.Itasca ($42)- Sent back to the trials after racing far too keen and pulling his way to the front LS. Ran his race before the turn. Won in good figures on heavy track prior. Blinkers come off, seemed to settle better in trial since but still touch keen. Nose Roll again. Can run well but I wish it was wet.

Other runners:

2.Highly Desired ($17)- Too good against weak field Goulburn and then soft lead and looked home before being caught on the line. Mdn 1.2s quicker although diff race shapes. 1900m now in what looks strongly run race? 1st crack 1900m.

4.Marcellina ($21)- Form was just fair and then went to country and was able to get over the top of Proprius (beaten 9L and 7L in Class 1s prior) late. They gapped the rest in avg figures. Last run good track QL200 of race when sith behind Foreign Territory.

6.Seababe ($24)- Trainer said this was the target and would need run LS. Drops in grade and gts chance but form just fair. Won b70 this t/d back in Feb.

7.Hostwin Epanoui ($15)- Took a sit last two starts and while a touch keen he finished off solidly. Latest was entitled to due to speed in race. Soft draw, can run well.

10.Taj ($84)-Bit one paced of late. First crack at 1900m. 4th 1800m to On The White Turf.

11.Taqueda ($28)- Soft lead last start and kept on going (QL200 of the race too). 3rd,4th,5th,6th,7th all well held since.

13.Vertex-Scr.Tempo against last two starts but got home well both occasions. Placed 1800 Hway. Tricky draw but runs on. Best stats wet?

14.Holy Empress ($160)- Sat o/side Baeed and no match LS. Gets a 6kg swing on that horse but apprentice goes on. Doubt that’s enough. Form out of win two back poor (9 subs st 1 pl).

16.Never Been Another ($56)- T/tie 1st time. Hopelessly out of the gates last two starts. Ran on well two back and then not best ground latest but got home OK. 4KG swing Baeed. Low percentage play with his start.

17.Wristband ($56)- Yet tp place 6 starts but nice enough effort LS when held up in straight behind leader too. Started $51 LS.



Brad Davidson - Sky Racing

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