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Brad Davidson preview Canterbury June 5

 Jun 4 2019

Canterbury June 5

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

 

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less. A few more bets on most occasions will be included here to spread the risk across a race day.

 

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy (25 units)

Race 4 no.10 Lady Evelyn 8 unit place at $4.80

Race 7 no.7 Bringagem 7 unit place at $6

10 unit quaddie (starts r4, 6.25%): 1st leg- 3-11-4-10-12 2nd leg- 1-3. 3rd leg- 7-1-11-9. 4th leg- 2-4-8-7

Betting results since started on April 20: +240.7 units, 20%POT, 1190 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (0.5 units)

Race 4 no.10 Lady Evelyn 0.3 unit place at $4.80

Race 7 no.7 Bringagem 0.2 unit place at $6

Betting results since started on April 20: +12 unit profit, (33%POT, 36.05 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Canterbury

Rail out 6m- History rail out 6m-

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6          F7              F8          F9

11/01/2017       Cant      6M+      G4         Fair but on pace helped                                          

9/09/2017         Cant      6m        G4         On speed favours- fence OK but got wider later but fence still OK                                            

5/01/2017         Cant      6m        G4         On speed favours-Hard to make ground as a whole but not impossible.                                               

21/02/2018       Cant      6m        S7-6      Fair track                                                    

5/06/2018         Cant      6m        H8         On pace adv. Tough to make ground                                           

25/07/2018       Cant      6m                      Fence and on pace massive bias                                              

29/08/2018       Cant      6m        G3         Pretty fair track this. Maybe hard fence not the best place to be.                                        

9/01/2019         Cant      6m        S7          Quite few winners pace.fence but good runs out wide too. Seemed to be able to sit 3WNC. On pace helped overall                                               

1/02/2019         Cant      6m        S6          Med adv on pace rail but could make ground and could win out wide still.                           

22/02/2019       Cant      6m        S7          No real lanes just hard to make ground as a rule                 

Assessment- Generally on pace helps on a wet track in the 6m position (fence can be on as well).

 

Wind: Moderate SSW. Crosswind running rail to grandstand- inside draws should get block from wind down back straight.

Race 1

Overview/advice: Hard to go past Milunka but too short for me to back. Costa Zou/Zenardini the main dangers.

Confidence rating on race: 7/10.

Selections: 1-4-8-2

1.Milunka ($2)- Winkers on. Good off slow tempo fresh quickest late splits in the race (ql400 of day). Run well on soft 6 before so wet should be OK. Up to 1550m for first time but by ATH.

4.Costa Zou ($8.50)- Almost LS. Knocking on the door. .4s slower benchmark 64 on day LS despite his race being run 5L quicker to 600. No winners 37 subs starters (30 days after each race) in last 5 starts. Beaten Zenardini home in both clashes.

8.Zenardini ($8.50)- Led LS, went quick early and faded when beaten home by CZ. .4s slower benchmark 64 on day LS despite his race being run 5L quicker to 600. Wnc on debut in town only soft track run. Siblings get through wet well enough (Zenalicious, Tip Top).

2.Discombe ($11) - Rolls forward- Led LS, kicked and looked winner on turn but caught late. This has more depth. Should either lead or sit outside lead though. Mum’s two wins 1400, some staying form on mother’s side.

Other runners:

3.Brilliance Squared ($13)- Blinkers 1st time. Outclassed LS, good from back in weak form race (7 subs st 1 placings) in race run to suit prior to that. Back to 1550m. got going late 1300m only run on rainaffected track Kenso.

5.The Summit ($13)- Hasn’t been far away of late- Slow tempo was against LS. Full sis The Pinnacle enjoys the wet but her two wet track runs have been disappointing.

6.Benfica Maid ($51)- Bumped into a subs city winner LS but was well beaten (1st and 2nd both won since). 1st time at 1550m. Mum won 1200-1700m.

7.Via Condotti ($69)- Got through the soft conditions well enough last two starts and has that fitness. Entited to run on last start. Canberra/Nowra form strong enough?

 

Race 2

* Not enough data to price race

Overview: Blazing Miss should roll to the front and the blinkers coming off could help her relax. L’Cosmo gets a good run and should be strong late, while I liked the way both Earth Song and Funstar have trialled up.

Advice: Include Aquitane and Earth Song in multiples at odds.

Confidence rating on race: 5/10.

Selections: 1-5-7-9

1.Blazing Miss- Blinkers off first time. Bumped into a smart one first up- Race 3L quicker other mdn on day. Should lead and prove hard to catch. Soft form good, G3 placed S7 (when tempo was on and best of on pacers). Bit keen blinkers on LS.

5.L’Cosmo- Nice effort first-up. Chased home Maddi Rocks and beat rest comfortably enough. Struggled only wet track run on debut but trialled well S5.

7.Aquitane- Two trials- first one drifted back and closed off well, second one sat outside the lead- pushed along to score. Draws well.

9.Earth Song- In Aquitane heat in only trial thistime in- Drifted back from gate but closed off well late under no real pressure. Sat 2nd and won only trial last prep. 1 trial wet track? Both of her mum’s wins good tracks. Gets back from wide draw?

Other runners:

2.Shielded- Caught BM late last start but had the race fitness on side. ½ TO Multaja, Veranillo. Just gets back-

4.Howra- Up on speed in two trials and pushed along. Trials solid enough. Would need to lift on form last prep. First-up wet track?

6.Night Flyer- Drifted back to midifled and ran on well opn debut to grab 2nd (QL400 of day but only 1000m race on card). First time wet track. Beat Dream Circle 2L LS.

8.Betcha Flying- jumped fine, Sat wide in trial and just fair late under some pressure beaten 3L Rhill 900m.

10.Irish Angel- Closed off well 1st trial 900m Rosehill but L600 in that trial slowest of day. Second trial 1045m Rwick, settled off speed, no impact under some pressure in straight.

11. Excelida-Soft trial at Tatura- drifted back, not asked for an effort. Just OK on debut MV last prep (5 subs st 1 pl out of race).

12.Zouriana- Good from back on debut then found spot wide gate at Cant and struggled in wet ground. No trial.

13.Dream Circle-Blinkers 1st time- Stuck on OK on pace last start. 5L slower 3YO 1200m mdn (quicker early and late the other race).

14.Funstar- Trials outstanding but I reckon runs in other race.

Race 3

Overview: Funstar has looked good in all three trials to date and she meets a pretty weak field here. She is a two-year-old taking on older horses but it’s the right time of year to try it and she gets weight relief. We just don’t want it too wet but she should be too classy for these. Skyann had some excuses last prep and did trial well leading into this (always does trial well though). Tawaret next best and blinkers coming off could help her relax a touch better.

Advice: Funstar to win.

Confidence rating: 7/10.

Selections: 10-6-7-9

10.Funstar ($2.20)- half to Youngstar- Three career trials have been super. Won latest under little pressure. Slightly sticky draw but looks talented! 52kg.

6.Skyann ($8)- lame on debut and then WNC but disap again. Trialled well coming in but has always trialled well.

7.Tawaret ($8)- Blinkers OFF FIRST TIME, Ear Muffs FIRST TIME. Chased home subs Sat winner two back but run since avg. didn’t run out 1400m LS. Back to 1250m. Beaten 10L only heavy run.

9.Zakat ($9)- Started double figured and stuck on OK behind a good ojne fresh. Get a look of that form line race earlier.

Other runners:

1.Big Data ($19)- Recent trial just OK when last field of 6 at Rhill 900m. Form last prep OK without getting carried away. Others more upside?

2.Classic Gaming ($37)- No impact first trial, pushed along and ran on second one (winner of trial, My Demetra won a race).

3.Flash Palace Scr-- 3 trials- Pushed along to win second one at Hawk and pushed along 3rd at Rwick 1045m. Latest trial time slowest of morning.

4.Georgia Hit ($14)-had a few chances now.

5.Moinda ($28)- Got home OK first-u[ and bumped into a city horse there. Still needs to lift.

8.Knickpoint- Scr.3 trials this time in- Closed off well latest one at Rosehill 900m- Pushed along a touch and just fair two trials back. Runs on. McEvoy on.

 

Race 4

Overview: Good little race. Lovesili looks the horse to beat off the last two runs and he was good against the tempo two back and then posted an arrogant win last start. Having said that, I thought Vega was the value at $10. I’ve always thought he was a better horse on wet ground and he has drawn to be handy. The 1900m is the obvious knock. Zoffany’s Lad can also run well at odds.

Advice: Something small on Vega each-way.

Confidence rating on race: 5/10.

Selections: 3-11-4-10

3.Lovesili ($4)- Good from back off slow tempo two back where winner G3 placed since and 4th Oaks. Too good Hawk latest. Beaten 8L only run heavy overseas but trialled solidly S6.

11.Austria ($5.50)- Tempo against LS and went OK. Extra trip looks as if will suit,Placed both runs soft. Gets back perhaps?

4.Zoffany’s Lad ($9)- Wrong part of the track LS and run prior was good when overcoming slow tempo. Wet form reads pretty well/. Can improve. Touch keen last two st.

10.Lady Evelyn ($13)- Good three back against the tempo- Two back disapp and LS never got a crack at them at all. Soft seems OK, failed only run heavy but in good grade.

Other runners:

1.Keep Up ($25)- Mixed form wet ground- Tempo against first up but worked home OK. 2nd up 1900m fitness on rain affected track? 61kg? 4 of 6 wins 1800m plus.

5.Captain Mannering ($154)- Just fair last start. Never won beyond a mile. Wet track form OK.

6.Latin Light ($25)- Resuming and just fair first up when no match for Vega. Up in trip helps and has won soft.

7.Mellors ($9)- Consistent of late- Either won narrowly or just missed last 3 starts. Horse beat her LS beaten 5L in Qld Oaks since. LS (6 subs st 0 pl). Never seen a wet track,.

8.Fluidity ($38)- Two runs over short trup to get ready for this. Now 1900- Trialled well soft/heavy and only rain affected run too short.

9.Kaapfever ($15)-Won S7 before. Placed 1850m in past. Beaten more than 4L Vega two back and meets horse .5kg worse off from that day. Better at WF?

12.Frascati Miss ($11)- OK in weaker grade LS. This looks to have more depth. Only win on dry.

 

Race 5

Overview: Tricky race. Generalissimo (never clear at any stage) and Rafha’s Choice (wide and working) were both luckless last start and get another chance. I think the horse worth a speck at odds if the track isn’t bottomless is Kelvinside to place. His fresh runs have been pretty good and he is at silly odds. I’m A Legend, Manzana and Bentley Magic are all capable.

Advice: Tough race but something Kelvinside to place providing the track isn’t bottomless.

Confidence rating: 4/10.

Selections: 1-3-9-4

1.Generalissimo ($4.20)- WNC fup but still disapp. Second up never got clear at any stage in a weak race. Gets another chance. JMAC on. 61.5kg the leveller. 788 days since last win. Only stakes win came heavy track Rwick.

3.Rafha’s Choice ($5)- Won with the 63,5kg two back wet track and then wnc last start working through run on dry. Back on wet an advantage and may come across and park behind speed.

9.Bentley Magic ($5.50)- Held up and still got home and won well first-up in race run to suit and then   Two wet runs OK- By NASD. Beaten 1.3L S6 and then other wet run against Roheryn when beaten 5L. Winner Of last race (Bergen) r/up since LS.

4.I’m A Legend ($7)- 2/2 this prep. Overcame slow tempo to score LS wyong and 3rd QL200 of day.  Soft heavy form seems sound. Runs well. Diff form. 2nd/3rd/4th/6th all well beaten since.

Other runners:

2.Clear The Beach ($20)- 676 DLW. Below his best for a while now. Needs to lift. 34 days between runs.

6.Bravissimo ($15)- Been a bit disapp this prep so the blinkers go on. Solid trial behind Terminology (not the best out) without blinkers in bet runs.  Won mdn H10 so wet should be no issue.

7.Kotinos ($58)- Led and faded badly first-up. Pref others. Has won on S5.

8.Weekend Affair ($20)- Two soft trials. Best trip around a mile bt ca often pull out a cheeky race fresh. Place hope.

11.Prima Stella ($78)- Slowish out but no real impact LS and this is a similar field.

12.The Patrician ($30)- Blinkers again. Disapp last couple (tempo against though two back). Doesn’t mind a wet track but tricky draw?

 

Race 6

Overview: Walk The Runway maps well and looks the one to beat here bu tricky race. 

Advice: Leaning to Walk The Runway,

Confidence rating: 6/10.

Selections: 7-1-11-9

7.Walk The Runway ($3.70)- Too good in a weak form race fresh and then not far away at this track LS/ Beat Medovina home LS and meets her 1.5kg better off here. Never races on wet tracks- Couple os soft trials on wet ground under no pressure. Maps well. 4 weeks between runs.

1.Medovina ($6)- Got the job done LS but wasn’t a strong race and figures just fair. Now 61kg and yet to really proe herself oj wet. Test of form line with RC and Generalissimo in previous race.

11.Lickopaint ($103)- (Formerly Numoor)- Bolted in debut good figures (weak form race 5 subs st 1 pl) and then WNC when 5th up in B64 grade- Faded there and wanted to lay in- Jock said felt better suited track with more give in it there. Led recent Rhill 900m trial and won it conv style.

9.Elm Court ($8.50)- 2/2 this prep- Not far away only wet track run last prep (by Mossman). Race didn’t rate anywhere near as well as Amorita’s on day.

Other runners:

3. Tycoon Street ($13)-Too good first-up although race set up for him and over race time .2s slower than mdn on day off same early tempo. 3rd horse won at Kembla since. 2nd to Toryjoy S5 but all wins dry? Does she want further?

5.No Interest ($26)- Two pretty soft trials- Never far away fresh and placed 3/7 first up. Doesn’t want it wet.

6.Echo Gem ($13)- Seemed to have her chance three runs this prep.Won mdn on S7 and should roll to the front here.

10.Seles ($26)- One trial- out back, pushed along and didn’t finish off.Won 1200m first up last prep. Wet form not great.

12.Sensacova ($103)- Recent trial was just fair. Freshened since last March. Wins at 1550-1600 so this may be a touch short.

13.Kathaire ($52)- Would need to improve on recent form.

 

Race 7

Overview: Not a lot between Be Mindful, Sonaree and Tim’s Principal here. Bringagem is a place chance from the back but probably needs one more run and 1900m.

Advice: Bringagem the place small.

Confidence rating: 5/10.

Selections: 2-4-8-7

2.Be Mindful ($5)- No luck two back, then held up on turn and closed off well latest. Mixed form wet- seems to get through it butbetter on dry perhaps. Beaten 13L last heavy run though. Maps behind speed.

4.Sonaree ($3.80)- Sat three wide last start and held on to score. Brave effort. Up 2.5kg. All wins dry but 2nd S6 Sandown Hillside. Should get across OK.

8.Guipure ($5)- Good run LS when not far away. Soft form is strong and JMAC sticks. Has won at a mile before and placed soft track Flem.

7.Bringagem ($17)- Hidden run fresh and then had to go right back and closed off OK second up. 1550m helps, might be one or two runs too early but loves wet ground. Hoping they land midfield.

Other runners:

1.Gauguin ($22)-Blinkers OFF AGAIN, Bubble Cheeker (Near Side) AGAIN, Lugging Bit OFF AGAIN. Won a tickover trial Wyong since LS. Pulled far too hard LS. Seemed to settle a lot better with the blinkers off in trial. Best form dry- 3 wet runs avg?

3.Galtero ($17)- Had to go back wide gate but closed off OKlate although entitled to as went hard came home slow (5 subs st 0 pl).Only proven up to S5. Had a really good prep last time in and can settle closer.

5.Balmain Boy ($11)- Closed off well late first-up QL200. Soft tickover trial since to keep fitness levels up. All three wins good tracks but seems to get through wet OK.

9.Chalk ($44)- Just fair last two and needs to lift on those performances.

10.Dashley Dubh ($66)- 389 DLW. Winner of last race well held Rosehill since. Wet form just fair,

11.Dylan’s Romance ($44)- Too short for him first-up. 4 of 7 wins soft/heavy and has a good record at this track. Likely improver.

 



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