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Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm June 11

 Jun 11 2019

Warwick Farm June 12

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less. A few more bets on most occasions will be included here to spread the risk across a race day.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

Normal strategy  (30 units so far)

Race 7 no.7 Unguarded 15 unit win at $5 and 15 unit place at $1.85

Betting results since started on April 20: +295.93 units, 22%POT, 1345 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (1 unit spend)

Race 7 no.7 Unguarded 0.5 unit win at $5 and 0.5 unit place at $1.85

Betting results since started on April 20: +15.8 unit profit, (38%POT, 41.05 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Wind: Light.

Track: Soft 5/6 rail true.

History rail true at Warwick Farm:

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9

9/02/2019         WF        True      H8-S6    Wide and swooping clear adv. Rained night before meeting heavily.                                         

8/07/2017         WF        TRUE     G4         Fence inferior. 2l onwards out best ground                                               

10/02/2018       WF        TRUE     S5 (rain night before              Fence or near it a no go zone. Wider the better                                           

14/03/2018       WF        TRUE     S5-G4    Well off fence. Fence no go after rain in morning                                        

9/05/2018         wf         TRUE     G4         Track was pretty fair                                                  

1/08/2018         WF        TRUE     G4         Bit on pace and fencish early but evened up late                                              

19/09/2018       WF        True      G4         Fence early here and then evened out late and if anything got wider last few. Slight adv on pace most of day                                            

24/10/2018       WF        True      S7          Pretty fair- still reckon a bit better wider later but last winner won on fence so surprisingly not too bad on wet in true                                               

22/12/2018       WF        True      H8         Closer to fence on pace OK early but wider and swooping second half of program                                          

9/02/2019         WF        True      H8-S6    Wide and swooping clear adv. Rained night before meeting heavily.              

13/03/2019       WF        True      S7          On pace first few lanes first half of meet then wider the better when rain came just before r5                                            

1/05/2019         WF        True      g4          Rails in run accounted for 6 of 7 winners     

Assessment- Potentially on pace a touch early and towards the fence but should even out (depends how wet it is?).

 

Race 1

Overview: L’Cosmo looks the one to beat off the first up runs but the gate is a little tricky. Still the run behind Maddi Rocks bodes well for this. On Her Word was wide no cover first-up and the winner of that race did finish second to River Bird prior.

Advice: L’Cosmo on top but slightly under my rated price.

Confidence rating: 6/10

Selections:7-3-1-2

7.L’Cosmo ($2.30)- Too wet for her debut last prep. Hunted up forst-up and stuck on when second behind Maddi Rocks. Race 1L slower than the boys on day. Right form line- Tricky gate?

3.On Her Word ($5)- WNC first-up but stuck on solidly. Winner of that race was 2nd to River Bird prior. Runner-up to Broken Arrows last prep too. Up 100m.

1.Light Exceed ($7)-Two soft trials without blinkers but they go back on race day. Should find the front- weak late in both races last prep the knock but may have matured.

2.Lillium ($10)- Two trials- Sat 3rd Hawk held ground to line under no pressure. Second trial- got back at Rwick and went to line under not a lot of pressure running on OK when 6th beaten 6.5L.

Other runners:

4.Social Smile ($28)- OK LS but race time was poor. 1.5s slower than other 1100m mdn on day (out almost 5L slower but home 6L slower as well). 2nd horse beaten 4L in Mdn since.

5.Tereka ($21)- Slow out in recent trial and not asked for a great deal late. Needs to improve barrier manners before we entertain as a beting prop.

6.Havin’ Fun ($42)- Hunted up to led first trial and won in avg time atWyong ybder bot a lot of pressure- Then got back and cruised to line in slow heat when 8th Rwick 1045.

8.Strange Charm ($55)- Started $101 on debut- Led but faded badly to be beaten 4L behind L’Cosmo.

 

Race 2

Overview: Sneaking To Win has great form lines coming into this from last prep (see below) but is he ready off two soft trials? You’re Next probably jumps to the front and has form around Vegadaze which reads very well for this. Disruptor gets the blinkers on and drops back sharply in trip.

Advice: Market tells the story late with 2 and 4. They look the two.

Confidence rating: 5/10.

Selections: 2-4-5-3

2.Sneaking TO Win ($4.20)- Long break, two soft trials. Second to subs G3 winner debut (beat home Napoleon Solo, Nobu and others there). Then got back and never ran home on day where you had to be on fence and on speed (he wasn’t). Can’t glean too much from soft trials. ½ to Appearance. 322 days since last run (DLR).

4.You’re Next ($4.20)- 2nd to Vegadaze debut in race prod 5 subs winners. Then soft lead and caught late by Bucephalus (5 subs st 0 pl). Jumped well recent trial, went back and given easy time. Should lead and run well.

5.Disruptor ($6)- Didn’t quite see out 1400m LS. Back to 1100m here with blinkers on. Did run well v Reloaded when WNC on debut. Can he freshen well enough back to 1100m?

3.Super Pins ($7)- Started $1.75 off solid trials on debut and was just fair. Drawn well again and should get a guide on form on how On Her Word goes in race prior.

Other runners:

1.Flash Palace ($44)- Three trials to get ready for this and should roll forward early. Won 2nd one at Hawk but pushed along and no real impact other two trials.

6.Moreno ($15)- OK on debut held ground. Extra 100m. Out of O’Reilly mare may want further? 51 DLR.

7.Vaporizing ($11)- WNC first two runs then behind them and stuck on 1250m in solid rating race LS (1l quicker than the girls) 6th horse won at Sandown since. 1250 back to 1100m.

8.Vici ($44)- Gelded- Two trials. Got back first and closed off well under little pressure, second trial won against 3 rivals. Both trial times slow (latest 2S slower next slowest trial over that dist for day. Form last prep just fair.

 

Race 3

Overview: Looks a race in two between California Salto and Mini Boom. Leaning towards California Salto and she finally draws a gate to sit much closer today. Mini Boom looks the obvious danger and the form out of her debut race has been franked with Catwalk winning in the city since.

Advice: California Salto on top but at her right price.

Confidence rating: 7/10.

Selections: 2-7-8-13

2.California Salto ($2.50)- Check at start and then chequered path home fresh in race prod 2 winners and then had to go back again and closed off well WF. Can settle closer now. Race 5L slower other MDN LS but mainly tempo.

7.Mini Boom ($3.50) - Went forward soft time outside speed and stuck on fresh. Almost beat subs Sat winner Catwalk there. 5th beaten Cessnock mdn .3s slower 1000m Cl2 but tempo related. Rolls forward.

8.Oh So Hot ($12)- Two trials- First led, not asked anything at all when second to Epic Dan. Second trial sat off speed and not far away.  Beaten .3L by subs G Slipper winner LS. Form prior just fair although 2/3 races sat city class.

13.Vinaigarette ($15)- Finished alongside California Salto (CS should have beaten this horse home) and then got back and didn’t feature second up as fav.

Other runners:

1.Bottoms Up Babe ($15)- Haan’t been great out of the gates at two trials. Closed off well to finish second to Enforcement latest one who has won a mdn well since.

4.Cloud Spirit ($20)- Thrown in the deep end on debut and was on wrong part of track there (time was good, 4 subs st 0 pl) . Won a trial prior in OK time.

9.Rockets N Roses ($243)- Tickover trial blinkers on- Slow out. Just fair. Hard to have on form.

10.Satin Rain ($30)- One 745m trial- Sat behind speed and held ground under little ground. L600 33.1 quickest of day.

11.Saturn ($121)-Beaten 5L behind Mini Boom first up. Needs to lift. Ear muffs 1st time.

12.Seraph ($41)- Got back two trials but closed off OK. Gets in light. Further?

 

 

 

Race 4

Overview: One of the toughest races of the day. Tempo was against Lady Of Shallot last start and she just needs a bit of luck from out the back (and a drying track). Sedgemoor runs well but is short enough, while Pop Girl, Time Raid (blinkers off) and Neshmiya are all capable among others.

Advice: Pattern of the day could help with this.

Confidence rating: 2/10.

Selections: 3-2-6-5

3.Lady Of Shallot ($6.50)- Racing Group races then freshen and quickest late splits of race when tempo against LS. 5TH Quickest L200 of day. Wants the track to get back into dry range. Jock 28% last 50 runners.

2.Sedgemoor ($3.50)- Took sit LS and zipped home in solid figures. 2nd horse won well since. Now up to a mile. Mum won 1400m.

6.Pop Girl ($7)- OK first two runs back and then sat behind speed slowly run race and too good. Meets most rivals there on same weight scale.

5.Time Raid ($9)- Too quick in front LS. Blinkers off and I’m guessing more conservative? 3WNC two back and should have won when taken off track another horse 3 back. Worth another chance? Soft form OK.

Other chances:

9.Neshmiya ($10)- Too good Newc where 2nd,3rd,5th all won since, Good behind Pop Girl latest where tempo against and held up when running on too. Meets PG .5kg worse off.

4.Spectre ($17)- Flying country grade.Won past 3 starts in style- Time .7s quicker 1600m mdn LS. 6TH horse won at Parkes since.12.64 L200 last time? Hasn’t broken 12s last 200m in last 8 st.

10.Power Of Wexford ($14)- Outclassed Scone Guineas but too good LS when overcoming slow tempo to score. 3rd QL200 of day in process. 4th won at Cessnock since.

Other runners:

1.Dalstowin ($35)- Tempo and gate against LS. Blinkers on now. More aggressive? OK in Melb two back.

7.Litzen ($46)- Fair first-up, went forward no match PG after soft lead latest.

8.Nitride ($23)- Tempo against LS but found line OK. WNC and pulled way to o/side lead prior. Tempo against 3 back as well.

 

Race 5

Overview: Embracer should lead and be hard to run down but even money is short enough all the same. Bare Naked Lady runs well and she just missed last time and brings solid form to the table. Jack’s Bar had no luck last start and also has each-way claims. Kelvinside always runs a cheeky race fresh and is a place chance at odds.

Advice: Kelvinside the place perhaps.

Confidence rating: 6/10.

Selections: 4-7-5-9

4.Bare Naked Lady ($4)- had chance 3 back and two back and then sit and sprint the other day and just missed to Notation. Rarely runs a bad race!

7.Embracer ($2.90)- Lame/ slow recovery two back- chased home subs Sat city winner debut. Latest set good tempo kept on going to score- 5L quicker 2YO Mdn day. Can go on. Only leader.

5.Jack’s Bar ($8)- Worst part of the track first-up and then slow out, too far back and ran into dead ends latest. Going well. Drifts back again. In form Shinn on. Set up to finish off LS as they went v hard early. Won 1200-1250.

9.Kelvinside ($18)- Not sure he can win but good placenchance at odds. Placed 3 of last 4 first-up runs. Beaten 6L Skyray first-up last prep but he gets a 6.5kg swing. Just reckon he will run on if track continues to dry.

Other runners:

1.Fanning ($120)- 4WNC LS but disappointing  all the same. Tongue tie on but needs to lift on recent form.

2.Skyray ($8.50)- Got home OK first0up and similar second up without threatening (3rd Ql600 race). Back from Sat grae. Should be peaking third up.

3.Crafty Tycoon ($17)- Solid from the back in Sat grade LS. 2nd QL600 of the race. Always needs luck as he gets back in his races.

6.Old Man Sam ($40)- 3-4 wide off the track LS but well beaten- Hard to have on recent form.

8.Show Me The Honey ($119)- Right spot two back and won and then out the backand no impact latest. 3L quicker than 1000m mdn race but doubt right form line.- 5 subs st out of race 0 pl.

10.Sostenido ($60)- Struggled to keep up forst-up. Better than he showed there but naturally needs to improve.

 

Race 6

Overview: Kaapfever is on trial at the 2200m but he gets a 4kg swing on Loveisili here and he returns to what I think is his favourite track. Stardome gets the blinkers on and he has been coming through stronger races, while Raqeeq had little luck last start and just has to overcome a wide draw.

Advice: Not much between the top 3-4 in selections.

Confidence rating: 4/10.

Selections: 9-7-1-2

9.Kaapfever ($6.50)- First crack beyond a mile this prep and closed off well behind Lovesili. Gets a 4kg swing in weights now. Back to home track a tick.

7.Stardome ($6.50)- Blinkers 1st time0 Hled over from Sat for this. Stuck on LS behind Nobu and Carif.OK behind Wolfe prior. Should be up there early.  7 subs st LS 1 pl but Nobu 4th Derbym Carif 5th.,

1.Raqeeq ($7.50)- Hit the running rail two back forgive, held up and ran on well LS off a slow tempo. QL200 of race. Just gets back from the gate? Back on track. 12 runs since last win.

2.Loveisili ($5)- Got all the favours LS ans just won. Now meets Kaapfever 4kg worse off. Up in trip helps as he was back in trip LS. Sticky draw?

Other chances:

6.Jazzland ($11)- Far too hard LS when sat o/side lead. Just fair first-up. Getting out to right trip but expecting him to show a bit more by now this campaign? Synth hoof filler 1st time.

Other runners:

3.Keep Up ($20)- Got a long way back second-up and actually closed off OK late. Extra trip helps- drying track should do as well.3 of 6 wins 2100m and beyond.

4.Shadow Flight ($35)- Ridden quiet and closed off well LS. Meet Raqeeq .5kg worse off for being beaten 2L by that horse. Had chance prior.

5.Miss Shanti ($19)- Jumping fairly- Just battled of late. Tickover trial and freshen. Did run well B90 off four week freshen back in  Jan.

8.Mrs Madrid ($18)- Beat home some good hroses LS including Big Duke and not far off Shillelagh. Just missed to Cal Longbow in a weak form race prior. 10th run this campaign.

10.Shangani Patrol ($35)- Won a 2200m race here last prep and then second to Tamarack 2400m. Second at Canberra latest in avg figures. Needs to lift a touch.

11.Never Been Another ($24)- Seemed to be travelling well LS and then stopped in tracks before turn. Finished off Ok when clear. Entitled to run on though. Gen needs luck as gets back and I would say he gets back here. Can reel off good sectionals like Gosf three back. Form out of LS not great.

12.Chief Kidder ($35)- Worked a touch early to sit o/side lead LS and stuck on solidly.

 

Race 7

Overview: I think the $5 is a fair enough gamble about Unguarded here and she has been really good off slow tempos her past couple. There was also a big on pace bias last start at Kembla which played against her. Sweet Ava proves hard to run down, while Seles should improve second up.

Advice: Unguarded to win (can also back to place if like).

Confidence rating: 7/10.

Selections: 7-3-8-5

7.Unguarded ($4.20)- Ear Muffs 1st time- No luck last cppl. Jumped well right back gates, QL400 of day two back off ridic slow tempo, then got back slow tempo (touch keen like start prior) and best late splits of race (4th QL400 day) on day v hard to make ground (only one winner firther back 2nd settling down on day). 9 subs st last race 2 placings a concern.

3.Sweet Ava ($3.90)- On inf ground at Scone, then up to 1400m straugh to front and kicked Rhill Sat grade (figures solid). Should be peaking nowand should lead again. 544 DLW.

8.Seles ($8)- Closed off OK fresh and will improve off that. Soft 6 against there too. Wants firming trac. Claim helps.

5.Aperitif )($10)- Not far away weak race two back then not on best ground LS but still disap. Has a habit of getting a bit keen?

Other runners:

2.Lilith ($13.50)- Jumped well, had to go back and no impact. Better for that and will be much closer to speed now. Strong enough form for this? Has won 1300.

4.Vinnie Power ($18)- Nothing between her and Sweet Ava last meeting but two runs thos prep disap. Hasn’t shown early speed. Needs to lift. 1300m her go- all 5 wins this trip.

6.Difficult To Get ($27)- Just battling of late and needs to lift. More than 500 DLW.

9.High Low Bet ($21)- Only win came first-up but that was 778 days ago now. First up off short break no trials.

10.One Fire Beach ($14)- Really good two back when almost won in weakish race. Then disapp last start back in grade as fav. Didn’t run out 1500m was only possible excuse offered by rider.



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