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Brad Davidson preview Canterbury June 19

 Jun 19 2019

Canterbury June 19

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less. A few more bets on most occasions will be included here to spread the risk across a race day.

 

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy (30 units)

Race 2 no.4 Earth Song 5 unit win and 5 unit place tote

Race 3 no.6 Flying Pierro 5 unit place tote

Race 4 no.4 Bringagem 5 unit win tote and 5 unit place tote

Race 7 no.10 Weekend Affair 2 unit win and 3 unit place tote

Betting results since started on April 20: +303.6 units, 20%POT, 1500 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

 

Long game strategy (0.8 units)

Race 2 no.4 Earth Song 0.1 unit win tote and 0.2 unit place tote

Race 3 no.6 Flying Pierro 0.2 unit place tote

Race 4 no.4 Bringagem 0.1 unit win and 0.2 unit place tote

Betting results since started on April 20: +16.1 unit profit, (36%POT, 45.35 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Quaddie for those following along (not part of strategy today): Quaddie (starts r4): 1st leg: 7,4,3. 2nd leg: 7-4-1-6. 3rd leg: 3-8-2-4-12. 4th leg: 10-2-9-3.

 

Rail true- heavy 8:

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9

7/06/2017         Cant      TRUE     H8-9      Fence big advantage early and then evened out a bit more late                                                      

10/01/2018       Cant      TRUE     S6-5      Fair track this.                                               

9/02/2018         Canterbury         TRUE     G4         Fair track                                             

2/05/2018         Cant      TRUE     G4         A bit hard to make ground from the back  but could just off them. Pretty even across                                                  

27/06/2018       Cant      TRUE     S6          Needed to be on fence in run- 6/7 winners on fence in run                                               

8/08/2018         Cant      True      g3          Fence no disadvantage could make ground and wide but fence no disad                                                     

26/10/2018       Cant      True      S5          Pretty fair- on pace winners early then swooping late. No real lanes.                                                      

14/12/2018       Cant      True      S7          Had to be on fence in run at least and helped in st too. 18/24 placegetters entire night on fence                                                   

18/01/2019       Cant      True      G3         No real lanes but on pace helped here                                                      

8/02/2019         Cant      True      S7          Massive advantage to be on fence in run, on pace adv as well but could make ground still. Rain during night big storm.  

8/05/2019         Canterbury         True      G4         First two lanes and on pace an advantage. Hard to make ground out wide                                                     

 

Assessment: Soft/heavy track when rail is in true tends to favour those on the fence in the run.

 

Race 1

Overview: Papal Warrior has trialled up very well leading into this (trialled much better than last prep) and he looks the one. He should roll forward and prove hard to catch. Frosty Rocks has also won a trial in good fashion leading in and looks the danger, while Mercury was heavily backed fresh when disappointing. Exceed The Stars has been gelded and has trialled solidly leading in.

Advice: Papal Warrior on top.

Confidence rating: 7/10.

Selections: 7-2-1-4

7.Papal Warrior ($2.60)- Two nice trials leading in- Shown speed and won well. Latest quickest 1045m heat of morning- 3 1/2s quivker Vici trial.Not far off on debut in race run ok figures (4 subs st 1 pl). Trialled much better first prep.

2.Frosty Rocks ($7)- Two trials- Sat just off them first one given easy time, lead latest and won well 894m Rosehill in one of quickest 894m heats of morning. Eased down late. Loved trial Rwick last time in when challenged really responded. Mum’s only win heavy and dad was a good wet tracker.$140k yearling.

1.Exceed The Stars ($7)- Gelded.Two trials- Sat off speed asked to close off late finished just off placegetters both. No blinkers trials but they go on race day. Started fav Breeders’ plate debut. Yet to really prove himself.

4.Mercury ($7)- Heavily backed first-up and was a touch wide but was very disappointing and has had to trial again. JMac said disingenuous and Cummings said immature. Trialled well since but always trialled well. ½ to Osborne Bulls.

Other runners:

3.Keen On Gold ($21)- Slow out both trials- Not asked for a great deal late when beaten 3.5L Papal Warrior and 2.4l Frosty Rocks. Starts concerns me.

5.Morethannumberone ($14)- Sl slow out only trial Rhill 894-7th there beaten 5L by Frosty Rocks-Not asked for muc late. $375k Easter Inglis yearling.

6.,Open War ($82)- Started $41 and showed good speed to lead on debut.Figures just fair- 1st and 2nd first starters and trial before just avg. ½ to Hurrara- 5 time winner rain affected ground.

8.Rule The World ($21)- Beaten long way only trial last prep. Up there two trials this time in and closed off solidly to win both- 2nd horses both trials under less pressure and worry about this horse late.

9.Vici- Scratched. Gelded. Winkers off. Two trials solid, latest won in very slow time under little pressure. Needs to lift on form last prep. Ran 2nd Scoen last prep but race .9s slower at least other 1100m races day.

 

Race 2

Overview: Very tough race with not a lot between most of these. Happy to speck Earth Song off the improvement I think she has (only one trial leading into the debut run). Many chances here though!

Advice: Small play Earth Song.

Selections: 4-1-14-12

4.Earth Song ($8)- Head turned to side and slightly slow out but like way she found the line first-up. Did same thing in trial so does she jump? Good late off one trial-

1.Aquitaine ($5)- Held up crucial stage debut and could make case to say should have won. Protest against winner dismissed. Now draws wide with speed inside? Has ability.

14.Zouriana ($8)- Drifted back first-ip and closed off well. Tongue tie goes on/ Blanket finish last start.

12.Mini Boom ($9)- Blinkers 1st time- Seemed to have chance two runs- Latest run .5s slower b70 on day and 4L quicker early so went hard early. 1200m to 1100m. Sure to have admirers.

Other runners:

2.Betcha Flying ($12)- $26-$41 debut and never got a crack at them when not beaten far. Must respect here. A few of the siblings have got a bit further?

3.Darling Point ($16)- Two trials- First- Too good in slow time Hawk- Second trial took sit, bit keen but closed solifly in solid time to finish 2nd 900m Rhill. Mum 2 time G2 winner 1400-1600,/

5.Egyptian Missile ($10)- Solid on debut behind a smart one and then back to 1000m and ran off feet LS. Next to Mini Boom in run there. Trialled well with blinkers on since, won heat (.4s slower Darling Point heat on day) but took sit and closed off well. Beat Betcha Flying 2L in trial earlier this year when both asked for effort.

6.Eltham Palace ($62)-Wide and working first-up but form out of race not great (11 subs st 2 pl)- Winner failed in city since.

7.Enfleurage ($62)- Soft trial Randwick 740- then 4 weeks between trials and closed off very well latest but slow L600 to do so (quick overall heat- at least 4L quicker Darling Point/Egyptian Missile trials day). Full sis to Nindamos.

8.Howra ($41)- Went a touch quick first-up but faded out of it late.

9.Irish Angel- Scrtached. Not quick out, then held up until 150m and got out and ran on well. Blanklet finish there. Gets back?

10.Kariba ($62)- Not great out Goulburn but closed off well (speed was on to suit). 34s QL600 day. Led a trial prior? Back again? Goulburn form although 3rd/5th both won mdns at Goulburn since.

11.Lucicello-Scratched. Issue on debut then trialled ok, straight to front and bit disapp first-up although on inferior ground straight. Speed inside now. Can overdo it. Race rated well (just behind Benchmark race day and slicker L600).

13.Vittorina ($18)- Soft trial coming in when 4th Rhill 900- Not asked effort at all. Closed off well behind Amercement only trial last prep. Betting? Likely to drift back.

Race 3

Overview: Guise gets the blinkers on for the 1st time and while she has had her chance at her past couple of starts, her wet track stats are good. Flying Pierro interests me at odds and I reckon he is looking for 1900m. Matowi has had no luck at all this prep and just has to run 1900m on the wet track (wet form a ?). Milunka looks next best but unders at $3.20.

Advice: Flying Pierro the place.

Selections: 4-6-1-11

4,Guise ($23)- Blinkers 1st time- Seemed to have chance last couple but not far off Duchess OF Lennox two back and that horse was in Oaks market (4 winners out of that race too). Took off before turn Ipswich and faded late. Won 3 straight prior. 3 wins S7 or heavy.

6.Flying Pierro ($12)- Won in last stride three back and then last two solid from back (QL200 of race two back).  Yet to place four runs soft/heavy but heavy run no luck at all and closed off well, one soft run against Smart Melody short trip.Latest was OK Kenso. 1st crack 1900 but reckon he is looking for it.

1.Matowi ($10)- Nothing gone right at 3 runs this prep- Held up first up and then never got a crack at them last two starts. 1900m first time- Struggled soft 6 last prep worst he has seen.

11.Milunka ($5)- O/came trouble to score LS albeit against a very weak field. 6L slower benchmark race on day but all tempo related.Got through soft fine there- First crack 1900- ½ to Kuro.

Other runners:

2.Pop Girl ($10)- Back to back wins in good style- Soft time on speed latest but too good on S6. First time 1900.

3.Come Along ($23)- 12Th run this campaign- Never got into it from back LS (weak from race 5 subs st 1 pl). Flying Pierro and Snippetspeed beat him home there. 2 wins on soft ground (up to S7). First crack 1900.

5.Ulusaba ($68)- Will be fitter but hard to have on two runs this prep.

7.Leardo ($23)- Meets FP 1.5kg better off for less than 1L two back. Just fair since then. Won mdn h9. Seems to gt through it. Beaten 13L cl1 heavy but that was to Archedemus who won by 9.25L!

8.Snippetspeed ($23)- Nothing between him and Flying Pierro two back and then stuck to task Sat grade Randwick latest.Only win was on heavy.

9.Taj ($11)-\WNC two back on bery strong speed, then took sit and too good prov latest. Time OK LS. Second horse onluy won the one race.Seemes to get through wet ground fine.

10.Bedivere ($17)- Resumed mile and too good at Taree. Figures just OK and set up for him to run on. 7 subs st 2 pl. Won 2000m last prep- First go wet track-

12.Ritmico- Scratched. wopn 2 back but 2nd horse stiff (6 subs st 0 pl there. Avg pon heavy latest.

Race 4

Overview: I’ve been waiting for Bringagem to get to 1900m on a wet track and while I expected more from him last start, I want to speck him at the odds. I’m confident Austria is the horse to beat and she gets the blinkers on and comes through a stronger form line. Dylan’s Romance should lead and run well, while Sonaree is consistent.

Advice: Something each-way Bringagem and can also back Austria to win.

Confidence: 6/10.

Selections: 7-4-3-1

7.Austria ($3.50)- Tempo against two back and then got back, held up turn, got run through and closed off well latest. Win, 2nd both ran well since. Blinkers on now- tricky gate again?

4.Bringagem ($14)- Loved his fresh run, second run OK and then expected a bit more third up.Won 4th up t/d slow time two preps back. Can be much closer- 4kg swing Sonaree.

3.Dylan’s Romance ($10)- Mixes his form a touch. Sat o/side lead and battled against few of these two back- Then led and bolted in latest. Soft lead there but stll QL200 of race. Likes this t/d. Two of him. T Clark big plus. Wet seems ok/

1.Sonaree ($5)- Consistent- Won 2 back and then looked winner caught late LS. First crack 1900- Placed twice soft, well beaten only heavy run. 3rd and 8th both won since out of LS.

Other runners:

2.Balmain Boy ($12)- Intention was to lead LS but couldn’t. Still stuck on well after settling behind speed. Mixed wet form. 1900m looks OK. Over 400 days since last win. Yet to place 5 runs 3rd up.

5.Deladies Boy ($30)= Tempo against last cpuple and got home OK. Last win 495 days ago. 1/1 track. Beaten just 6 runners home last 4 runs S6 or worse.

6.Smokin’ Pierro ($59)- Blinkers on, winkers off. Disapp two runs this prep but both on syntho. Placed all 3 runs soft but hard to have recent form.

8.Frascati Miss ($15)- Shd won two back then shuffled back LS and made run solid enough. No match Austria there. Gets back.

9.All But Gone ($39)-Normally enjoys a wet track but doubt recent form is strong enough.

10.Gypsy Miss ($12)- Won her past 5 starts- Sectionalsform around her not outstanding but she is a winner. Won s6 this time in but 5/7 wins on good tracks.

11. Captain’s Legend ($59)- Ran on late Cessnock but this looks harder.

12.Eden vale ($40)- No match for TAJ LS How did that horse go run prior?. Wet form reads OK.

Race 5

Overview: Tricky race. Echo Gem won well but in average figures last start. She should find the front though and be hard to catch again as she seems to like wet tracks. Misteed has been trialling the house down and has been well supported in early markets, while Aim For Perfection has been heavily backed as well and has been pretty impressive in two starts to date. Brazilica could well be a very smart horse but follow any betting moves for her.

Advice: Late betting key here.

Confidence: 4/10.

Selections: 7-4-1-5

7.Misteed ($5)- Hard to knock two trials coming in- First trucked to line late and second won well defeating Danawi who has since failed. One run since Aug last year a knock- One heavy run and defeated Ljungberg.

4.Aim For Perfection ($4)- Two nice wins. .6s quicker other mdn debut (tempo) and then quickest 3 x 1200m races day latest. Claims helps. Rolls forward perhaps? ½ to Tactical Advantage. Sit and sprint helped her LS.

1.Echo Gem ($5)- Bolted in wet track latest although time wasn’t great. .8s slower Rafha’s Choice race same day and up 2kg now. Should find the front though. Seles won out of the race.

5.Dame Kiri ($9)- Bit disap fresh (race marginally quicker than mdn off slower tempo). Last prep was solid. Soft form solid. Tricky map speed inside.

Other runners:

2.Franquare ($11)- Won her past two in solid fashion- Form around her just fair last two but put herself on speed and is a heavy track winner. Echo Gem beat her home April 20 KG and meets her 3.5kg better off for doing so.

3.Singing Sand ($18)- Won avg rating race two back and then WNC with 60kg latest and peaked. 2nd and 5th out of placings since.

8.Lick’o’paint ($27)- Ear muffs pre race 1st time- Sat outside leader and no match Echo Gem latest. Prefer others.

9.Riviera- Scratched. Slightly slow out in trial and was just OK there. Would need to imp last prep.

10.Chilled Rose ($12)- Missed jump, rocketed home LS in weak form race (7 subs st 0 pl). Had chance prior in race where 2yo ran quicker on day. Going OK just not sure right form?

11.Tawaret ($35)- Bumped into a smart one LS but just going fair.

 

Race 6

Overview: Pretty even race this. I don’t think Accelerato comes through the strongest form line but she seems to like wet tracks and the blinkers go on here. Above And Beyond comes out of the strongest form line and he failed at his only heavy track run but that was in his first prep when he wasn’t going well. Bravissimo blew the start last start with the blinkers on but flashed home and he just needs to jump well this time. Rafha’s Choice loves a wet track but draws wide with speed inside, while Nuke also has claims.

Advice: Pretty tough this!

Confidence: 2/10.

Selections: 3-8-4-2

3.Above And Beyond ($4.80)- Didn’t have speed to lead so took a sit latest and boxed on Sat city company. Beat Nuke narrowly there and meets same weight scale.Beaten 9L only heavy run but that was first racing prep when not going well. Has won a trial by 4L on heavy since then. Can’t say no. Beat home subs Sat city winner River Bird LS.

8.Accelerato ($5.50)- Blinkers 1st time- Beaten 5L by Inanup first up and then better second up when not far off Roman Typhoon race set up for swoopers (overall rating just fair-.1s quivker 2yo mdn despite going 5L quiker to 600m). Won mdn by 7L on heavy track so clearly gets through it (QL600/400 day + almost 6L quicker other mdn- 2nd horse yet to win 19 st).

4.Bravissimo ($8)- Just going fair this prep then the blinkers went on LS, blew the start and flashed home in a great run. Won mdn on heavy and seems to get through it. 14 runs, 605 days since last win.\

2.Rafha’s Choice ($4.80)- Loves it wet- Won Wagga 63.5kg three back, then won again LS. 2 heavy runs 6th 1000m Rwick and 4th to Roosevelt where finished behind Inanup that day. Drawn wide, speed inside. Meets Bravissimo 1kg better off but that horse stiff LS after blowing start.

Other runners:

1.Inanup- Scratched. 2/2 this time in- Went hard for swoopers latest but held on. 2nd,5th and 6th all won since! 2nd only run heavy to Roosevelt WF beaten 5L. 3 of 4 wins 1100 but has won 1200 albeit narrowly Class 2.

5.Embracer ($7)- Solid effort when on inferior ground LS at WF. First run on a soft track now furst run heavy. But of pressure and the concern is the last 200m.

6.Virgilio- Scratched. Just going fairly this prep. Wet form mixed. Wide throughout LS.

7.Leogang ($51)- Slow out and never featured fresh. Beaten .3L Prince Mayted heavu track one day so getsthrough it. Yet to place 2 runs 1200m and wins at 1100m or 1000m.

9.Lifetime Quest- Scratched.Two soft trials coming in- Won mdn then caught late Class 1 last time in. Obv has upside but form arojnd him last prep just fair and would need to lift. Fup heavu track?

10,Murvate- Scratched. First up since June last year would be some training performance!

11.Bentley Magic- Scratched. Had his chance LS and wet form just fair even though by NASD. Does get 3.5 and 2.5kg swing Bravissimo and Rafha’s Choice though.

12.Nuke ($10)- Got home quite well first-up without threatening in Sat class and was right alongside River Bird there. That form stood up Saturday. My concern is the heavy track – Two runs heavy beaten 5 and 7L but both at 1400m. This is at 1200m. Does no work in the run.

 

Race 7

Overview: Another tough race to close the day. I didn’t think there was much between these and therefore leant the way of Weekend Affair without any confidence. He likes a wet track, did enough fresh and gets his right track and distance. Makdanife also loves a wet track and comes here off a freshen, while Travancore and Silent Explorer are among several other hopes.

Advice: Weekend Affair perhaps but race pattern key by now.

Selections: 10-2-9-3

10.Weekend Affair ($10)- Can often run a cheeky race fresh and did that first-up. 1550m his go art Canterbury. Wet form solid. Will be running on.

2.Makdanife ($6)- Freshened with soft tickover trial. Loves wet tracks and that’s the key here. Last 3 wins 2100m but has to be considered.

9.Travancore ($8)- Tempo against when QL600 day fresh, then back along inside (doubt best ground at Hawk that day) and got home OK second up. Soft/heavy seems ok. Has won at mile before. 12 runs since last win but new stable this prep.

3.Silent Explorer ($8)- Small break, tickover trial and just fair fresh Sat city grade but expect that as 1200m far too short for him. 1550m more to his liking and he lvoes a wet track. Goes in the quaddie.

Other runners:

1.Kurnel Jaxon ($9)- OK fresh when went back and found line, then much handier second up and had his chance. Won mdn on soft ground, untried heavy. Bit more speed here so probably tucks behind? 2 from 2 third up

5.Yulong Emperor-Scratched. 3WNC but dropped out badly. Blinkers off again in recent trial where took sit and just fair to line. Needs to improve.

6.Guipure ($7)- Found line solidly LS in race where 3rd and 8th won since. Gets through wet OK just gets back.

7.Musume ($14)- What you see is what you get- Rolls forward and hard to catch. Does she lead Plenty? Solid in city two back. Last 100m the knock.

8.Plenty ($8)- Still doing a bit wrong with wanting to overrace. Led by fair space latest and caught late. Just does too much still for me to entertain but was a touch better LS. Wet form mixed, has won on S6.

11.Vive Marie ($25)- Started $19 and fell in at provincials LS. 1.3S quicker than mdn but mainly tempo. Form prior only fair and failed only heavy run.

12.Ready Set Sing- Scratched. Raced Tues.



- Brad Davidson preview Canterbury June 19

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