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Brad Davidson preview Randwick June 22

 Jun 22 2019

Randwick June 22

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less. A few more bets on most occasions will be included here to spread the risk across a race day.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy (100 units)

Eagle Farm

Race 7 no.7 Another Dollar 7 unit win at $9.50 and 14 unit place at $2.90

Race 8 no.9 Egg Tart 7 unit win and 8 unit place tote

Randwick

Race 1 no.1 Leviathan 5 unit win at $3.90

Race 2 no.3 I Am Capitan 7 unit win tote

Race 4 no.5 Boss Lane 5 unit win and 5 unit place tote

Race 5 no.5 No Doubt 5 unit win and 5 unit place tote

Race 7 no.8 Our Winnie 4 unit win at $61 and 6 unit place at $15 (locked in Thurs)

Race 8 no.2 Viceroy 2 unit win and 3 unit place tote

Race 8 no.3 Echo Effect 2 unit win and 3 unit place tote

12 unit quaddie (starts r6, 10%): 1st leg: 3,2,8,1. 2nd leg: 8,12,5,15,13. 3rd leg: 8,4,1,2,13,3,. 4th leg: 13.

Betting results since started on April 20: +291.1 units, 19%POT, 1530 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (3.7 units)

Eagle Farm

Race 7 no.7 Another Dollar 0.25 unit win at $9.50 and 0.5 unit place at $2.90

Race 8 no.9 Egg Tart 0.25 unit win and 0.25 unit place tote

Eagle Farm

Race 1 no.1 Leviathan 0.25 unit win at $3.90

Race 2 no.3 I Am Capitan 0.3 unit win tote

Race 4 no.5 Boss Lane 0.25 unit win and 0.25 unit place tote

Race 5 no.5 No Doubt 0.25 unit win and 0.25 unit place tote

Race 7 no.8 Our Winnie 0.2 unit win $61 and 0.3 unit place at $15 (locked in Thurs)

Race 8 no.2 Viceroy 0.1 unit win and 0.1 unit place tote

Race 8 no.3 Echo Effect 0.1 unit win and 0.1 unit place tote

Betting results since started on April 20: +16 unit profit, (35%POT, 46.15 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Track: Heavy 8, rail 6m.

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9

5/02/2017         Rand     6m        G4         Fair maybe 5 off fence best but OK                                             

10/03/2018       Rand     6m        F2-g3    Played really quick don't think hard fence was place to be but still could make some ground                                                    

21/04/2018       Rand     6M        g3          Fast TRACK on pace early and then could make ground. Pretty solid track. On pace favoured naturally                                          

23/06/2018       Rand     6m        h9         Tough to make ground from a long way back- out wide slight adv but could win closer too.                                              

6/10/2018         Rand     6m        H9         Very fair track this- touch on pace early but could win from anywhere, fence, out wide etc                                            

29/12/2018       Randwick           6m        G4              Pretty fair track. Fence no disadv first 5 races             

2/03/2019         Rand     6M        G4         Few off fence best ground here suiting run on. Fence not best place but not massively inferior                        

20/04/2019       Rand     6m        G4         Fair track

Assessment- Seems to be a pretty fair rail position.

Wind: Strong SSW westerly predicted on Saturday (tail wind down home straight). Leaders could be hard to catch.

Race 1

Overview: I’ve got to be with Leviathan at the better odds here and he was very good on debut. His late splits were the quickest of the day (last 400m and last 200m) and the overall time compared well to the benchmark races on the same day. Funstar is sure to have plenty of admirers after she bolted in on debut. The time was the quickest of three 1250m races on the day but that was tempo related and naturally she is well found in the market. She has to come back to 1200m here and might need a bit of luck if she box seats with the rail out. Switch is the other main horse.

Betting strategy- Leviathan worth a small play at the odds.

Confidence: 6/10.

Selections: 1-2-3-7

1.Leviathan ($3.40)-Time was there on debut- Only narrowly slower (.1s) than benchmark 70 despite that race going 5L quicker to the 600m. Quickest l400m and 200m splits of the day.

2.Funstar ($2)- Nice debut- Got back, let the speed go but closed off well. Quickest of 3 x 1250m races on the day but mainly tempo related. Bred to get through the conditions. Horse to beat but probably starts unders.

3.Switched ($11)- Solid second over 1000m in strong rating race last time out. 1200m now the query?

7. Irish Angel ($21)-Found the line well on ebut and should be running on again.

Other runners:

5. Pyraminx ($42), 6. War Baron ($127), 8. Dodecanese ($60).

 

Race 2

Overview: The one that interests me at odds is I Am Capitan. It's an ask running on a wet track first-up off one soft trial at 1200m but his trainer has a great first-up strike rate (23% last three years- 13 winners from 57 first-up runners) and produced a horse first-up at Bathurst to score over 1200m on a wet track earlier this week. He was really good behind I Am A Cool Kid first-up last prep at 1100m after being trapped wide and at his last run on a soft 7 he gave She Knows 4kg and almost beat her. Revitup Rednut’s two runs back have both been solid and he gets out to 1200m now. The wet track won’t bother him and I thought he was pretty good last start after being caught wide without cover. Irish Songs had no luck two back and then dashed for home and then knocked up late last start. He will have his admirers again but just looks too short in betting.

Confidence: 6/10.

Betting strategy- I Am Capitan to win and can save on Revitup Rednut.

Selections: 3-13-5-12

3.I Am Capitan ($7)- I just don’t know if he is ready to handle a bog track first-up off one soft trial at 1200m but his trainer has a great first-up strike rate (23% last three years- 13 winners from 57 first-up runners) and produced a horse first-up at Bathurst to score over 1200m on a wet track earlier this week. He was really good behind I Am A Cool Kid first-up last prep at 1100m after being trapped wide and his last run on a soft 7 he gave She Knows 4kg and almost beat her.

13.Revitup Rednut ($7)- Revitup Rednut’s two runs back have both been solid and he gets out to 1200m now. The wet track won’t bother him and I thought he was pretty good last start after being caught wide without cover.

5.Irish Songs ($5)- Looked winner and peaked late LS. No luck first-up. Will have admirers but short enough.

12.Electrified ($8)- Looks a progressive horse and he did trial up well leading into this. Won two starts before a break. Include in multiples.

Other runners:

. Show Me The Honey ($22), 2. Another Sin ($17), 4. I Am Kalani ($13), 6. Bella Amante ($33), 7. Tootz ($33), 8. Bolghari ($22), 9. Conquest ($66), 10. Gumshoe ($11), 11. Fashion Tip ($67), 14. Nashian ($67).

Race 3

Overview: It’s been a while since he has won a race but Raqeeq is going well and hasn’t had a lot of luck of late. He was wide without cover last start and the run prior he didn’t have a lot of luck at this track and distance. His form on wet ground is mixed. I’m a big fan of Belfast Bella but the two queries are the heavy track and the lack of tempo in the race. Wu Gok has been in great form up north and has trialled well between runs. He loves a wet track. Reneged might need one more but he loves wet ground and can also run a race at odds.

Betting strategy- Leaning to Raqeeq.

Confidence: 4/10.

Selections: 6-13-1-7

6.Raqeeq ($6)- Hasn’t had a lot of luck of late. He was wide without cover last start and the run prior he didn’t have a lot of luck at this track and distance. His form on wet ground is mixed. Rolls forward early perhaps?

13.Belfast Bella ($7)- Huge from the back off slow tempo Hawk and then good again off slow tempo Rwick. Wet track the ? No speed again?

1.Wu Gok ($7.50)- been in great form up north and has trialled well between runs. He loves a wet track. 4 wins from 7 starts on heavy ground.

7.Reneged ($13)- Caught the eye fresh. May need one more but can run well. Loves wet tracks.

Other chances:

3. Zip A Dee Doo Dah ($16)

 4. Bobby Dee ($11)

 5. High Power ($13)

 8. Primitivo ($14)

11. Ilwendo ($10)

Other runners:

2. Pirate Ben ($43), 9. Dark Pearl ($16), 12. Keep Up ($22).

Race 4

Overview: Good race this. I want to make a top three case for Boss Lane at the odds. I think we will get better than $4.60 a place but he loves Randwick, loves a wet track and won this race by a big space two years back. You'll get better odds on race day because he is an older horse and the punters won't gravitate to him. What do we do with Sesar? He is first-up in a long time but did win the Roman Consul first-up fresh last prep on a wet track in good figures. If he is ready, he can be hard to hold out. Almanzora has trialled up well for this and she gets in with no weight on her back and gets through wet ground. I Thought So and Cradle Mountain were both disappointing fresh but can improve sharply, while Passage Of Time enjoys it wet but got a picnic in front last start and won’t get that set up here.

Betting strategy- Happy to speck Boss Lane each-way (mainly place) on the tote.

Confidence: 4/10.

Selections: 5-9-1-7

5.Boss Lane ($9)- Getitng on a bit now but wide first-up and then really good second up on wet ground when having to go back late. Won this race two years ago, draws to box seat and can run a cheeky race at odds.

9.Almanzora ($6)- has trialled up well for this and she gets in with no weight on her back and gets through wet ground. 2nd to Resin before a break in race that rated very well.

1. Jungle Edge ($5)- Loves it wet!

7.Sesar ($6)- Trialled well enough- Won Roman Consul fresh in good figures first-up at this track last year.  Fair time off the scene? Now with Team Hawkes?

Other chances:

3.I Thought So ($8)- Disappointing fresh but may have needed that? Likes wet ground and did win this race last year.

2. Passage Of Time ($7)- Bolted in LS but had favours. Gets through ground.

4. Cradle Mountain ($7)- Too bad to be true first-up. Can bounce back. Heavy?

Race 5

Overview: Tricky little race that could throw up a result. I know he hasn’t won for over 1000 days but this is the type of race No Doubt can perform well in. He was disappointing last start but covered ground and his run prior said back me over 1400m on a wet track this time in. He gets that set up here and his wet form is strong (2nd in a Doncaster Prelude and a good third behind Mahalangur at this t/d on soft ground last prep). He gets the blinkers on for the first time as well. Pelethronius did enough last start to show he is back on track and he is another who loves wet ground (five starts on heavy for four wins and a placing). Barricade is an interesting runner. It has been set up at his past two starts but he has some really good runs on wet tracks (including a 5 ½ lengths romp in the country on heavy going). Oneness was really good from the back last start and can park much closer. I thought Arraignment was really good from the back fresh as well and he will also settle closer here. He might be one run short and that’s the query (he probably prefers it a touch drier  as well). 

Betting strategy- Could speck No Doubt.

Confidence: 5/10.

Selections: 5-7-6-10

5.No Doubt ($8)- Happy to have a speck at the odds. More than 1000 days since last win is a big knock but he loves a wet track. Disapp LS but run prior was good and gets the blinkers on. 1400m looks ideal. Wet form includes a placing in a Doncaster Prelude.

7.Oneness ($8)- Some outstanding splits from the back LS and can sit much closer with the blinkers on. Has won three times distance range. Heavy track?

6.Pelethronius ($8)- Thought he did enough last start and he loves it wet. 5 starts heavy for four wins.

10.Barricade ($11)- Set up for him to win last two starts but good wins all the same. Loves wet ground (bolted in heavy by 5.5L one day country).

Other chances:

8.Charreterra ($8)- Didn’t run out the 1600m laststart. Back to 1400m helps. Wet? Seems short enough?

2.Arraignment ($15): Lovely fresh run. One more and maybe a touch firmer?

Other runners:

1. Shazee Lee ($11), 3. Conarchie ($27), 4. Nahuel ($14), 9. Toulouse ($55), 11. C’est Davinchi ($18), 12. Stone Cold ($22).

 

Race 6

Overview: Terminology was a pretty impressive winner first-up with the big weight and she should find the front here and prove hard to catch. Cath’s Village enjoys wet ground and she just didn’t see out the 1400m last start. The drop back to 1200m should suit here. The heavy track is the query though. Connemarra really found the line first-up but she draws off the track here and that’s the knock. Miss Exfactor and Kaiwakini look next best, while Levee Bank has rough place claims.

Betting strategy- Cath’s Village the overs?

Confidence: 5/10.

Selections: 3-2-8-1

3.Cath’s Village ($5.50)- Just didn’t run out the 1400m last start so back to 1200m suits. Loves wet ground and draws well.

2.Terminology ($2.80)- Should lead and good first-up win with big weight. Class horse of the field but heavy track the ?

8.Connemara ($8)- Nice return when savaged the line forst-up. Draws wide now but could be Ok? Runs well.

1.Miss Exfactor ($10)- Much better lasy time out on wet ground. Draws wide but has clais with even luck.

Other runners:

6. Levee Bank ($35), 7. Notation ($10), 11. Kawaikini ($11), 13. Cuban Sizzle ($35).

Race 7

Overview: Open race this. There’s one at huge odds I could definitely speck here in Our Winnie. I thought she was OK late second up and she did beat a very good wet tracker in The Iron Maiden earlier in her career on a soft 7. Sweet Victory is building towards something and she wasn’t on the best ground at Rosehill last week. She gets an extra 100m here and some weight relief for top apprentice Robbie Dolan. Monsieur Sisu enjoys a wet track and he stuck to his task pretty well last start. Third-up he should be ready.

Betting strategy- Something small each-way on Our Winnie.

Confidence: 5/10.

Our Selections: 8-12-5-15

8.Our Winnie ($22)- Worth a speck at the big odds here. OK fresh, better second up and wet track poses no concerns. Gets in light and did beat noted wet tracker The Iron Maiden easily on soft 7 last year. Worth a throw at the stumps. Beat Island Missile home LS but one is $13 and the other is $80? B88 back to B78

12.Sweet Victory ($6)- Third-up runs well. Extra 100m, drips in weight and handles wet ground. Wasn’t on best part of track LS either.

5.Monsieur SIsu ($7)- Building- OLK fresh, better second up and ready to peak. Runs well.

15.This Is So ($10)- Promising horse who has come a long way in his first prep. Another level again but keeps raising the bar.

Other chances:

13. Toryjoy- Seems to be settling better. Ground shouldn’t be an issue.

Other runners:

2. Top Prospect ($29), 3. Veladero ($86), 4. Maktoum ($22), 6. Devil’s Lair ($19), 7. Island Missile ($12), 9. Napoleon Solo ($12), 10. Savvy Ken ($12), 11. High Mist ($43), 14. Commander ($29), 16. Spectre ($29).

Race 8

Overview: If it was dry I would be declaring this an outstanding roughie but nonetheless I have to be with Viceroy here if we get no more rain. Does he handle a genuine heavy track? He has won on a heavy track in the past but most of his form is on top of the ground? One thing though is his fresh form is very good and his run behind Bon Amis in a stronger race than this first-up last prep was much better than it looks on paper. He will drift back here but if he handles the track, he is a knockout chance and I have to be with him at $31 each-way. Jack’s Bar gets the gun run and looks the horse to beat, while Southern Lad has claims as well but I would rather look wider here in the shape of Viceroy and a few others I could include in quaddies are Epic Dan (enjoys wet ground and wide draw could be OK by now), Noble Joey (hard to catch but back in a winnable race and usually likes it wet) and Echo Effect (only going fairly but has great wet track stats and hasn’t been on a rain affected track for some time).

Betting strategy- Noble Joey to win + small Viceroy win.

Confidence: 4/10.

Selections: 8-4-1-2

8.Jack’s Bar ($6)- Wrong part of track first up, luckless second up after missing jump and running on then sat wide and too good latest defeating subs winner Embracer in process. Box seats, handles wet.

4.Southern Lad ($6)- Beat all bar the Kiwi first-up. Knocking on the door and gets another chance.

1.Noble Joey ($10)- Should roll along in front- Disap LS but not far away in stronger grade prior. Normally likes wet goridnd.

2.Viceroy ($13)- Does he handle the track? Love him fresh. B88 run much better than it looked fup last prep. Chased home Lucy Rose 1000m prior where just ran out of ground. Goes well fresh just heavy a ? Worth a speck if no more rain.

Other chances:

13.Epic Dan ($14)- Did enough fresh over 1000m. Gate a ? but has form around Signore Fox and Grimoire on wet ground. Gets through it.

3.Echo Effect ($10)- Just battling of late but wet track stats are good and hasn’t seen a wet track for some time. Can run well.

Other runners:

5. Ghostly ($17), 6. Dio D’Oro ($31), 7. Inanup ($13), 9. Fortification ($31), 10. Silent General ($31), 12. Skyray ($63), 14. Roman Typhoon ($10).

Race 9

Overview: Hard to go past Spiritual Pursuit but there probably isn’t a great deal of value in the price all the same. She was strong on speed first-up on dry ground after working early and clearly loves wet ground. I really liked the way Deity has trialled up for this and I wouldn’t be surprised if she goes to a new level this prep. The heavy track is the query though. Does November Man go to Queensland (he is an emergency there). He is flying but I think I prefer him on top of the ground. Spiritual Pursuit looks the one.

Betting strategy- Spiritual Pursuit looks hard to beat but is well found all the same.

Confidence: 7/10.

Selections: 13-7-9-11.

13.Spiritual Pursuit ($2.20)- She was strong on speed first-up on dry ground and clearly loves wet ground. Well weighted, has company on speed but should be too strong.

7.Deity ($9)- Like the way she has trialled up. Has to go to a new level but can off the trials. Heavy the ?

9.November Man ($11)- Just bogged down a touch at 1100m on soft 6 last start but ran well. 1000m more his go but would prefer it dry.

11. Argent D’Or ($19)-1000m run on horse. Ground should be OK.

Other runners:

1. Bombarding ($32), 2. Whycatchhim ($21), 5. Rare Episode ($16), 6. Lion Couchant ($48), 8. Sei Stella ($15), 12. Invictus Salute ($32), 15. Quick Nick ($189), 17. Gimme Shelter ($47), 18. Crackneck ($100).

 



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Randwick June 22

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