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Brad Davidson preview Rosehill June 29

 Jun 27 2019

Rosehill June 29

Best bets

Race 1 no.1 Mr Wong 

 

Normal strategy (160 units) *** Please note prices are before scratchings. Deductions will be made if we get collects.

Race 1 no.1 Mr Wong 25 unit win at $4.20 and 15 unit place $1.90

Race 3 no.1 Phaistos 20 unit win at $7 and 20 unit place at $2.50

Race 3 no.7 Handspun 15 unit place at $6

Race 4 no.13 Celtic Love 5 unit place tote

Race 5 no.4 Doukhan 5 unit win at $9.50

Race 6 no.1 Drachenfels 10 unit win at $10 and 10 unit place at $3.30

Race 7 no.9 New Universe 5 unit each-way tote

Race 9 no.4 Destiny’s Own 5 unit win at $11 and 5 unit place at $3.60

5 unit multi ($14.65): Race 1 no.1 Mr Wong to place ($1.85) into Race 3 no.1 Phaistos to place ($2.40) into Race 6 no.1 Drachenfels to place ($3.30).

5 unit multi ($39.96): Race 1 no.1 Mr Wong to place ($1.85) into Race 3 no.7 Handspun to place ($6) into Race 9 no.4 Destiny’s Own to place ($3.60)

10 unit main quaddie: (starts r6, 17.8%): 1st leg: 1,14. 2nd leg: 1,2,5,9,10,11,13. 3rd leg: 1, 4th leg: 4,11,14,15. 

Betting results since started on April 20: +293.2 units (17%POT, 1700 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (5.2 units) *** Please note prices are before scratchings. Deductions will be made if we get collects.

Race 1 no.1 Mr Wong 1 unit win at $4.20 and 0.75 unit place at $1.90

Race 3 no.1 Phaistos 0.75 unit win at $7 and 0.75 unit place at $2.50

Race 3 no.7 Handspun 0.5 unit place at $6 place

Race 4 no.13 Celtic Love 0.25 unit place tote

Race 6 no.1 Drachenfels 0.25 unit win at $10 and 0.25 unit place at $3.30

Race 7 no.9 New Universe 0.2 unit win tote

Race 9 no.4 Destiny’s Own 0.25 unit win at $11 and 0.25 unit place at $3.60

Betting results since started on April 20: +17.2 unit profit, (33%POT, 52.1 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Track: Rail true, heavy 8-9.

History:

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9

28/01/2017       Rosehill TRUE     G4         On pace adv- track fair otherwise                                                

11/03/2017       Rosehill TRUE     S7-6      3-4 off adv. Fence could win but inf                                          

6/05/2017         Rose      TRUE     G4         Fair track                                                      

17/06/2017       Rose      TRUE     H8         Fair 3-6 off best and got wider later. Fence not great                                                     

29/07/2017       Rosehill TRUE     G4         Pretty fair a bit on speed to start wth then seemed OK                                                   

27/01/2018       Rosehill TRUE     g4          Pretty fair track this                                                    

17/03/2018       Rose      TRUE     G4         Track played well hard fence 1-2L inferior                                               

5/05/2018         Rosehill TRUE     G4         Pretty fair track this- wanted to get off rail but few late winners came on rail to suggest it was fine                                                   

16/06/2018       Rosehill TRUE     s6          4-5 off best place but could still win closer to fence                                          

28/07/2018       Rose      True      g4          Could maeke ground but inside 1-2 lanes advantage- could still win  out wide                                                     

8/09/2018         Rosehill True     h8         On pace early but chopped out late and winners came wider                                            

3/11/2018         Rosehill True      G4         On pace a bit of an advantage but could make sground still. Got wider as day went on. Hard fence not place but could win cppl off                                                

24/11/2018       Rose      True      G4         Confident best ground off fence here 3-4 wide seemed place to be in straight. Just didn't really want to be hard fence or out too wide                                         

19/01/2019       Rose      True      G4         On pace helped. Probably ddin't want to be hard fence. Most winnerd wide but still some close to fence won               

16/03/2019       Rose      True      H10       Getting a few off fence here and wider good too.

18/05/2019       Rosehill True      G4         Pretty fair track, fence OK but I still reckon wider the better and fence sl inferior. Lanes 3-6 OK but wider fine too             

Assessment- Getting off fence here to the middle. Wide barriers OK.

 

 

Race 1

Overview: Looks a lovely race for Mr Wong and the 1100m just wasn’t far enough for him last time out. He gets out to 1400m here and I’m confident he will be too classy for these late. He has form around Frankely Awesome last prep and looks well suited here (I like the gate too as he can get to the middle of the track). What you see is what you get with Assault’n’bathory and he was really good in a swoopers race two back and then held on to defeat Think Like A Fox last start. I reckon Dulette is a rough place hope if he can get a crack at them late and he should relish the step up in trip, while Refire was impressive to the eye last start and has upside. 

Advice- Keen on Mr Wong at $4.20.

Confidence: 8/10.

Selections: 1-2-4-13

1.Mr Wong ($2.45)- Good win first up 1000m then good from back second up 1100m where not on best ground back towards inside. Has won at 1400m and placed to Frankely Awesome at 1600m. Handles wet, gate looks good to get to middle. Hard to beat.

2.Assault’n’bathory ($13) Good against the pattern two back (swoopers race) and then held on to beat Think Like A Fox last start. In good form.

4.Dulette($16)- No luck two back and then started $10 (how!?) and too good latest. Looks like he will eat up 1400m.

13.Refire($13)- Time wasn’t anything great bit was impressive to the eye LS when stepping up to 1300m. Run at 1000m had further written all over it prior.

Other runners:

5. Onemore Sapphire ($16), 6. Fortunes Path ($32), 7. Revolver ($40), 9. Rest Of The World ($11), 11. Fusca ($53), 12. Think Like A Fox ($14), 14. Zedforce ($53),  16. Gemmahra ($17), 17. Stratums Rose ($32).

 

Race 2

Overview: Interesting little race. So You Win is coming off a pretty strong win last time out against a lot of these and while they meet him a touch better at the weights, he should be hard to stop again stepping out to 2000m. The one who could turn the table if the track is still genuinely wet is Articus. He loves a wet track and I thought he did enough on the Soft 5 behind So You Win last start (gets a 1.5kg swing in his favour). White Boss will carry just 50kg after the claim and he will run his usual honest race, while Master Of Arts is hard to line up being first0up but one thing about him is he loves a wet track.

Advice: The fav is too short at $1.55. Articus on top at the odds but not a race I’m overly keen on.

Confidence: 4/10.

Selections: 4-2-6-1

4.Articus ($7)- Gets a 1.5kg swing on So You Win and a senior jockey. Loves wet tracks- 2000m is ideal. 4 of 5 wins at 2000m.

2.So You Win ($1.90)- Strong winner over 1800 last start. Ha the gun run that day but should get it again here. Wet seems OK. 2000m the logical progression.

6.White Boots ($5)- Honest on pacer. Gets in with just 50kg after the claim. 2kg swing on Articus. Gets through wet ground OK.

1.Master Of Arts ($25)- Two trials have been solid. First-up and hasn’t wom first-up since first prep back in 2015 but does enjoy wet ground and has class.

Other runners:

3. Tip Top ($40), 5. He Ekscels ($15), 7. Mongolian Wolf ($40).  

Race 3

Overview: Happy to be with Phaistos here and he just looks to me that he is crying out for 1400m. He was a big winner fresh, second-up he didn’t relish the tight Warwick Farm surface but he bounced back in convincing style last start. He beat Exceltic four lengths there and that horse was beaten two lengths by English the start prior. His two siblings won over a mile plus plus his mum is a half to a few horses that go over a trip. It’s hard to knock the way England is going (a lot better than their cricket team!) and he should run his usual honest race. Handspun is another who should relish the step up in trip, while Call Me Royal is a chance if he can get a soft lead and that's a live possibility now after the scratchings. She looks to have company up front but now that doesn't look the case after scratchings.

Advice- Phaistos to win and Handspun to place.

Confidence: 8/10.

Selections: 1-3-7-8

1.Phaistos ($3)-he just looks to me that he is crying out for 1400m. He was a big winner fresh, second-up he didn’t relish the tight Warwick Farm surface but he bounced back in convincing style last start. He beat Exceltic four lengths there and that horse was beaten two lengths by English the start prior. Also, they both won races at Scone first-up and Phaistos’ win rated much better on the day. His two siblings won over a mile plus plus his mum is a half to a few horses that go over a trip.

3.Call Me Royal ($7)- Up to 1400m- Talented enough and scratchings help her cause.

7.Handspun ($8)- QL200 than England laststart in race not run to suit. Was 1300 back to 1200 there and now back out to 1400m. Chance if they overdo it

8. Think Free ($8)-

Other runners:

4. Above And Beyond ($13),  6. Lilith ($12),  10. Isilmo ($17), 12. Monegal ($25), 13. Walkinshaw ($1031).

 

 

Race 4

Overview: It’s hard to go past Itz Lily and she clocked some strong figures when winning on a wet track at Randwick last start. She should roll across and settle in the first four here. Semper Fidelis was a bit disappointing last start but she should have probably beaten So You Win prior to that and he will go around very short in race 2. I reckon Celtic Love can run a cheeky race here. The race was set up for her last start but I liked the way she finished off. She has run well at this track and distance on a wet track before. Toryjoy looks next best and she seems to be settling better this prep.

Advice- Celtic Love the place.

Confidence: 5/10.

Selections: 7-3-13-8

7.Itz Lily ($3.50)- She clocked some strong figures when winning on a wet track at Randwick last start. She should roll across and settle in the first four here. Wert track is a bonus.

3.Semper Fidelis ($7.50)- Bit disappointing last start but she should have probably beaten So You Win prior to that and he will go around very short in race 2. Proven on wet ground.

13.Celtic Love ($10)- The race was set up for her last start but I liked the way she finished off. She has run well at this track and distance on a wet track before. Good roughie.

8.Toryjoy ($5.50)- Good effort over the mile LS and no luck when wide two starts prior to that. First crack 1800? Gives herself a chance with her manners improving of late.

Other runners:

2. Paulita ($15), 4. Ivy’s Court ($30), 5. Letter To Juliette ($24), 9. Miss Shanti ($42), 10. Waking Moment ($15), 11. Anarchy ($60), 12. Lightning Nic ($20), 14. Lamma Hilton ($40), 16. Royal Anthem ($123).

 

Race 5

Overview: Good race for the stayers. The two that interest me at each-way odds are Azuro and Doukhan. The former was good in the Andrew Ramsden last start where he was caught wide, made a mid race move, hit the front and stuck on well. The 35 day gap between runs is a slight query though. Doukhan hasn’t won for a while but he did run fifth in a Sydney Cup and he meets Terwilliker some 9.5kg better off from last start. He loves soft ground and while he was disappointing last start, he can bounce back here. Destiny’s Kiss, High Bridge and Terwilliker all have claims as well.

Advice: Doukhan and Azuro look the two. Could have went either way but just went Doukhan because of the odds.

Confidence: 6/10.

Selections: 4-5-9-1

4.Doukhan ($8)- Dead set two miler0 5th in Sydney Cup- disappointing off a freshen but had 62kg and drops significiantly in weight ere.

5.Azuro ($5)- good in the Andrew Ramsden last start where he was caught wide, made a mid race move, hit the front and stuck on well. 2nd in a Sandown Cup last year over 3200m where just caught Yogi. Should get through the ground.

9.Terwilliker ($6)- Looks a real tough stayer. Beat the likes of Doukhan by a big margin LS but meets that horse 9.5kg worse off here,

1.Destiny’s Kiss ($6)- He has been a marvel. Has won over 3200m but earlier in career. Won 2400m LS ans actually meets High Bridge 3.5kg better for doing so.

Other runners: 2. High Bridge ($8), 3. Mazaz ($11), 6. Kellstorm ($44), 7. Social Element ($17), 8. My Pscyhiatrist ($133), 10. Misty Mountain Hop ($133), 11. Dress Rehearsal ($266), 12. By Design ($266), 13. Plymouth Road ($22).

Race 6

Overview: Interesting race. River Bird is probably the safe way to go and she gets in nice and light again. She got the job done last start and should have probably beaten Ljungberg at her only heavy track run. Drachenfels has had no luck in two runs this prep and the extra 100m should suit him here. He seems to get through wet ground OK but whether gate one will be a disasdvantage at this time of the day is the query. He is at a backable price. I’m expecting a turnaround in form from Taniko. I loved her fresh run and then she didn’t fire second up. She is much better than that. Oxford Tycoon has claims but seems short enough in the market considering he has never raced on worse than a soft 5.

Advice: River Bird the horse to beat but Drachefels could be the value at $10.

Confidence: 6/10.

Selections: 1-14-7-5

1.Drachenfels ($7.50)- No luck at all in two runs this prep and gets an extra 100m which is a big tick. Gate 1 the worry at this time of the day but banking on a good ride from Collett.

14.River Bird ($4.50)- Horse to beat- Ridden upside down two back and then patient ride LS and held rivals at bay. Gets in with a winnable weight again.

7.Taniko ($8.50)- Super run fresh over the 1000m (after some lacklustre trials) and then bogged down with big weight on wet ground LS. Wet again but can improve.

5.Oxford Tycoon ($6)- just seems a bit too skinny in the market. Has been racing well. First crack beyond a soft 5? Had a big weight pull on Passage Of Time LS but couldn’t beat hold him off. POT is a handy horse though.

Other chances:

9.Traumatised ($12)- Racing well without a lot of luck in Qld. Can be keen going.

Other runners: 2. Kool Vinnie ($12), 4. Bring It Home Pop ($13), 8. Handle The Truth ($16), 13. Isorich ($257), 15. Transmitter ($16).

 

Race 7

Overview: Seaway won well at 1500m first-up last prep and he should roll forward here with no weight on his back. I would have declared New Universe the each-way bet of the month if he drew a gate but he has come up with barrier 14 and I’m concerned about how far off them he will be. He is still at juicy odds of $11 though and I’ll probably have a nibble of that. Nicci’s Gold is a fair way up in grade here but she gets some weight relief and one thing about her is she likes wet ground. Testashadow might need the run first-up as he gets older now but he can run a cheeky race fresh and draws to get all the favours. I know he is more a second up horse but New Tipperary wouldn’t be a total shock if he could place. I’m against Firsthand and Gaulois. They both seem well found in early markets.  

Advice: Something small on New Universe each-way but I reckon he will get out. Can play Seaway to win as well.

Confidence: 5/10.

Selections: 9-5-13-11

9.New Universe ($8)- Would have declared him from a gate but he gets back here slow run race. He is deadest flying though (I know he is New Universe but his last two runs have been outstanding). Easily quickest L600,400 and 200 of the day two then 2Nd QL200 of the day LS when not on best ground. Back to 1350m and gives them a start.

5.Seaway ($6)- Won first-up last prep 1500m in solid time. Rolls forward with no weight on his back and should run well.

13.Nicci’s Gold ($8)- Up a long way in grade but gets weight relief and loves wet tracks. Gets Collett aboard as well.

11.Star Reflection ($14): Comes right into this on wet ground.

Other chances:

1.Deploy ($14)- Disapp LS but super against the bias first up (on fence which was not place to be).

Other roughies:

2.New Tipperary ($14)- Normally a second up horse but his runs fresh have been sound last few preps.

6.Testashadow ($18)- Trialled up well, won a MM Cup first-up and 7th in this race last year first-up.

Other runners:

3. Harper’s Choice ($143), 4. Firsthand ($11), 7. Sir Bacchus ($14), 8. Organza (Qld?), 10. Gaulois ($11), 13. Insensata ($23), 14. Salsonic ($72).

                          

Race 8

Overview: Tricky race. Bon Amis isn’t off well at the weights here (meets Brook Magic 4.5kg worse off) but he loves Rosehill and I thought he was pretty good first-up. He should get a good run behind a strong speed and should be there late. Wagner went to a career peak last start and the second horse out of that race (Spiritual Pursuit) has won well since. He just has to reproduce that now. Heart Conquered was wide and keen last start but he is a better horse than that, while most of Brook Magic’s good form in at Randwick but she is hard to leave out due to that weight swing on Bon Amis.

Advice- Leaning to Bon Amis despite not being off well at the weights.

Confidence: 6/10.

Selections: 1-11-4-6

1.Bon Amis ($3.50)- Only missed a top 2 at Rosehill once in 8 starts. Good return at Randwick and gets a good run off this strong speed. Does meet Brook Magic 4.5kg worse off though for beating that horse home just half a length LS.

11.Wagner ($6)- Produced some good overall figures and strong closing splits to beat a subs winner LS. Had no luck at Hawkesbury prior. Just has to reproduce.

4.Heart Conquered ($6.50)- WNC and keen LS and knocked up. First-up run was good and his best performances last prep were on wet tracks. Can bounce back.

6.Brook Magic ($9)- Gets that 4.5kg swing on Bon Amis but most of her best form is at Randwick. Draws wide with speed inside?

Other runners:

 3. Tonsor ($11), 5. Top Striker ($80),  8. Junglized ($13), 10. Zonk ($26), 12. Tango Rain ($32), 13. Gongs ($13), 14. Goldfinch ($40).

 

Race 9

Overview: Good race to finish the day. I think Destiny’s Own is slightly over the odds and he was good when back in trip last start. He gets back out in journey here and will run you a race each-way. Nicochet has bumped into the in form Kapajack at his past two starts and there’s no Kapajack here. He gets his chance. Gayatri will get a long way back but her fresh form is strong and Chris Waller has always had a nice opinion of her. Travancore was on the best part of the track last start but looks to be in a good frame of mind for his new stable.

Advice- Something small Destiny’s Own each-way.

Confidence: 5/10.

Selections: 4-11-14-3

4.Destiny’s Own ($9)- Racing consistently this time in. Good at WF when collared late two back and then last start back in trip and closed off well when ridden conservatively. Hoping he can park a touch closer this time and back up in trip a plus.

11.Nicochet ($5.50)- Chased home in form Kapajack last two. No superstar but gets his chance to breakthrough. Up in trip third up.

14.Travancore ($9)- Chased well two back and then too strong LS. Was on best part of track LS (6/7 winners and 15/21 placegetters were fence in run on day) but in a good frame of mind for new stable.

3.Gayatri ($8)- Didn’t really go on with it last prep but Chris Waller has always had a big rap on this horse and her fresh form in strong (2/2). Gets a long way back though.

Other chances:

7. Pumpkin Pie ($9) and 15. No Escape ($22)

Other runners:

 2. Mapmaker ($22), 5. Love Shack Baby ($9.50), 6. Our Rockabyebaby ($70), 8. Fuel ($17), 10. Clevanicc ($11)

 

 



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Rosehill June 29

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