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Brad Davidson preview Kensington Aug 17

 Jul 2 2019

Kensington August 17

Best value

Race 4 no.5 November Man $9.50 and $3

Happy to be with November Man at the each-way odds here and he is a horse that loves dry ground and 1000m. He has raced well here in the past and he has had a little freshen up and a couple of soft trials since his last run. He has been slow out at his past two trials and that’s the knock but he will be rocketing home.

Best roughie

Race 6 no.2 Eastender $17 and $4.60

I was too slow to grab the $51 about Eastender but I still think the $17 is acceptable. He clocked the best late splits of the day when winning at Devonport first-up over 1880m last prep with 65kg and I loved the way he trialled up for this. This is his first run for Chris Waller and he is worth a play at odds.

Hard to beat but no value anymore

Race 3 no.9 Pandemic $6-$2.70 (no value anymore so not in strategies)

I was impressed by the way Pandemic won on debut and while the sectionals weren’t off the charts (they were still pretty good) the second and third horse have both won well since. He is related to Earthquake and gets in nice and light here. He looks hard to beat.

 

Betting strategies

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less.

 

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy (140 units)

Race 1 no.5 Assault’n’bathory 15 unit win at $6.50

Race 1 no.6 Schappose 5 unit win at $8.50

Race 2 no.2 Velocita 10 unit win at $5

Race 4 no.5 November Man 15 unit win at $9.50 and 15 unit place at $3

Race 5 no.1 Notio 10 unit win at $4.60

Race 6 no.2 Eastender 7 unit win at $17 and 8 unit place at $4.60

Race 7 no.1 Patrick Erin 10 unit place tote

Race 7 no.5 Etymology 5 unit place tote

Race 7 no.8 Firsthand 5 unit win at $12

10 unit main quaddie (6.25%): 1st leg: 2,7,4,13. 2nd leg: 8,4,6,1. 3rd leg: 1,10. 4th leg: 5,1,7,8,2.

5 unit early quaddie (12.5%): 1st leg; 2,5,1,10. 2nd leg:9. 3rd leg: 5,2,11,6,13. 4th leg: 1,5.

Kembla Grange

Race 6 no.12 Niewand 20 unit place at $2.30

Results: -135.6 units, -4%POT, 3171 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (4.2 units)

Race 1 no.5 Assault’n’bathory 0.5 unit win at $6.50

Race 1 no.6 Schappose 0.25 unit win at $8.50

Race 2 no.2 Velocita 0.25 unit win at $5

Race 4 no.5 November Man 0.5 unit win at $9.50 and 0.5 unit place at $3

Race 4 no.11 Koonunga 0.1 unit place at $10

Race 5 no.1 Notio 0.25 unit win at $4.60

Race 6 no.2 Eastender 0.25 unit win at $17 and 0.25 unit place at $4.60

Race 7 no.1 Patrick Erin 0.25 unit place tote

Race 7 no.5 Etymology 0.1 unit place tote

Race 7 no.8 Firsthand 0.25 unit win at $12

Kembla Grange

Race 6 no.12 Niewand 0.75 unit place at $2.30

Results: +5.7 unit profit, (6%POT, 94.7 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Expected firmers: 

Race 4 no.5 November Man $9.50 (expecting to firm a touch in an open race)

 

Expected drifters:

Race 2 no.3 Helga $3.80 (seems a false fav to me

Race 3 no.6 Aussie $4.40 (can't get it close to second fav personally)

Race 5 no.6 Watchdog $3.20 (capable but too short for a horse that lacks a turn of speed)

Race 6 no.13 Wolfe $2.80 (on the up but this is very open and should drift!)

Race 7 no.6 Wren's Day $2.70 (Best form lines by a mile but several queries first-up, you would think would drift).

Race 9 no.5 Mister Songman $3 (best horse in race but a few queries fresh and probably gets out?)

Track good, rail true.

History:

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9

18/04/2018       Kens      TRUE     G4         Off fence later in day but played pretty well                                                   

5/09/2018         Kens      True      G4         On pace and fencish early and then chopped out last two races where out wide was better                                                 

1/10/2018         Kenso    True                    Fence well and truly off                                               

22/11/2018       Kenso    True      G4         Rail ok first 2-3 then wider the better as day went on                                          

5/01/2019         Kenso    True      G3         Lanes no issue but fairly on pace (most tempo though?). Only one winner further back 4th.     

6/03/2019         Kens      True      g4          Pretty fair track. Didn’t want to be too far back and I don't think hard fence was best place                                                   

4/05/2019         Kenso    True      S5/G4   Fair track

Assessment: Track has been really fair in recent months and expect it to be the same here.

Wind: Gentle SSW predicted.

 

Race 1

Overview: Prepared to give Assault’n’bathory another chanced and he pulled up 3/5 lame last start. His form prior to that was very consistent and he gets the blinkers on here. Schappose was a good first-up winner and I like the form around his second at Scone in May. The winner has won twice since in decent races too (including the Kirby) and the third horse has won as well. He finished fourth to Handle The Truth in a Highway race late last year. Zardoro should have probably won last start and he was just held up before flashing late. He will probably drift back here but watch for him late. I Am Capitan rarely runs a bad race but the 1300m may see him out?

Advice: Assault’n’bathory to win and can save on Schappose if you like.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Strong speed as normal for these Highways. Alcatran, Assault’n’bathory (blinkers on) and Elegent Ellen up there.

Likely market trend: Always hard to predict which way the market will go with these Highways. I do expect Palais De Louvre to start a fair bit longer than $12 though.

Selections: 5-6-3-1

5.Assault’n’bathory ($5)- 3/5 lame last start and taken on in front. Better than that. Form prior when up on strong speeds and kicking on was impressive. Blinkers on, back to 1300m, should run well.

6.Schappose ($6)- good first-up winner and I like the form around his second in May. The winner has won twice since in decent races too (including the Kirby) and the third horse has won as well. He finished fourth to Handle The Truth in a Highway race late last year. Good gate, good jockey.

3.Zardoro ($5.50)- Flying his last three starts. Probably should have won last start and extra trip is a plus. Drifts back but watch for him late.

1.I Am Capitan ($7)- Rarely runs a bad race. Zardoro got past him late last start but good prior to that in benchmark grade. Is he better wet ground?

Other runners:

2. My Tagoson($13), 4. Alcatran ($12),, 8. Elegent Ellen ($30), 9. Airfree ($30), 11. Toulon Brook ($24), 12. Whisky’n’diamonds ($40), 15. Embezzlement ($15)

 

Race 2

Overview: I’m shocked Helga is favourite here and she has been really well placed at the midweeks. She fell in last start and this is much harder. I’m keen to take her on. Having said that, it’s hard to really single one out here. Velocita didn’t have much luck last start and chased home the in-form Notation prior. The dry track won’t be an issue for her. Connemara has the best form for this but is on trial at 1400m, while Wimlah is probably looking for a mile but just might be too good if ridden aggressively early. Constellations has trialled up well and also has each-way claims. She came a long way in her first prep.

Advice: Leaning to Velocita but confidence is low here. Against the favourite Helga at $3.80.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Tempo looks solid enough with Leami Astray and Esposito Gold the two most prominent unless they are aggressive with Wimlah?

Likely market trend: I would be surprised if Helga starts favourite. Expect her to drift. A lot of form analysts are coming up with Velocita so she may firm.

Selections: 2-5-1-10

2.Velocita ($5)- No luck LS and chased home the in-form Notations prior. Dry track no issue at all. JMAC rides, speed should be genuine enough and she will run on.

5.Wimlah ($5)- Jumped in front, eased out of speed dual and ran on late LS. Is she looking for a mile? Will they be more aggressive here?

1.Connemara ($5.50)- Boasts a good second behind a smart one in Haut Brion Her in good time last weekend. The query is whether she will run 1400m? Up in weight for easier assignment.

10.Constellations ($10): Trialled up well twice and came a fair way last prep. Form around Reelem In Ruby reads OK and too bad to be true before a break.

Against:

3.Helga ($6.50)- Well placed to date and looks a false fav.

Not hopeless at odds-

8. Leami Astray ($42)- Probably outclassed but has turned a corner recently and may lead and give them something to catch,

Other runners: 4. See Me Exceed ($42), 6. Esposito Gold ($25), 7. Bubbles Ball ($16), 9. Waking Moment ($42).

 

Race 3

Overview: I was impressed by the way Pandemic won on debut and while the sectionals weren’t off the charts (they were still pretty good) the second and third horse have both won well since. He is related to Earthquake and gets in nice and light here. He looks hard to beat. I’ve elevated All Cylinders up my list and he has trialled up well and had good form lines in his first prep. I’m respecting Making Whoopee and she was a strong winner on debut. She looks to have plenty of class but she is still learning what it is all about and needs to relax early. Maddi Rocks has trialled up well and did win convincingly at Canterbury before a break (the second horse hasn’t gone on with it since though). Concrete and Irish Songs have place claims.    

Advice: Pandemic to win.

Confidence: 8/10.

Speed map: Good tempo expected here, Concrete looks the leader and he should run along. All Cylinders and Making Whoopee won’t be far away.

Likely market trend: Pandemic will start a well backed favourite here I believe. Aussie has to drift considerably?

Selections: 9-7-5-10

9.Pandemic ($3)- Good win on debut when won comfortably defeating two subs winners. Last 200m was strong (2nd QL200 of day). Drops in weight here. Wellbred and sits back off a good tempo.

7. All Cylinders ($8)- Showed ability in first prep and has trialled up well enough. Form around Tenley reads well.

5.Making Whoopee ($8)- Class won on debut- Jump well, overraced but too good once found the front. Overall figures just fair though but has upside!

10.Maddi Rocks ($8)- Trialled well leading in. Beat L’Cosmo before a break and that horse hasn’t gone on.

Other chances:

3.Irish Songs ($12)- One of the best late splits of the day last start when winning from the back. Out of Hway grade but has upside. May have turned corner?

4. Concrete ($16)- Underrated speedster. Should roll in front and give them something to catch. 1100m first up?

Against:

6. Aussie ($13)- Not sure what I’m missing but can’t get him anywhere near second fav here. Few gear changes but trials just OK and form last prep fair only for mine. Beat Bivouac yes but when that horse was just going fairly.

Other runners:

2. He’s Super Lucky ($44), 8. Exotic Ruby ($66), 11. Iskander ($33).

 

Race 4

Overview: Happy to be with November Man at the each-way odds here and he is a horse that loves dry ground and 1000m. He has raced well here in the past and he has had a little freshen up and a couple of soft trials since his last run. I thought Koonunga was at big odds here at $51. She has been freshened up and I’m not sure she has enjoyed running on genuine wet tracks at her past few starts. She had no luck at all behind November Man here back in May. Natalia (wrong part of the track last start), Royal Witness (company on speed?) and God Of Thunder all have claims as well. The tactics will be interesting on God Of Thunder and I wonder if they just go back here. He is a horse that has shown ability and comes back as a gelding but I still want to see him go on with it before taking short odds about him.

Advice: November Man each-way. Koonunga’s worth thought at huge odds.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Strong speed here with Designer Maid, Miss Innvincible, Wanna Get A What, Royal Witness and Imacrumpet are all up there.

Likely market trend:  I think God Of Thunder should drift he may not as he is a popular horse with punters.

Selections: 5-2-11-6

5.November Man ($7)- Freshened- two tickover trials. Loves 1000m and dry ground. Races well here. Too wet LS forgive. Runs well here, just hope he jumps OK.

2.Royal Witness ($5.50)- Gee, he has come back well. Showed he didn’t have to lead LS with a strong second behind a horse that ran splits from the back. Has company on speed but can only race well.

11.Koonunga ($30)- Seems big odds at $51? Not suited on wet tracks of late and no luck behind November Man here back in May on dry. Can bounce back off freshen.

6.Natalia ($6)- Wrong part of track LS when easily beaten by RW. Form prior was good. Can bounce back.

Other chances:

7.God Of Thunder ($6): The tactics will be interesting and I wonder if they just go back here? He is a horse that has shown ability and comes back as a gelding but I still want to see him go on with it before taking short odds about him.

Other runners:

3. Miss Invincible ($13), 4. Rebel Miss ($13), 8. Wanna Get A What ($26), 10. Designer Maid ($13), 12. Imacrumpet ($65), 13. Second Island ($60), 14. Our Rosemaree ($131).

 

Race 5

Overview: I thought Notio was the horse to beat he was OK at Rosehill last start when caught back on the inside which I reckon was inferior ground on the day. He has won at a mile before and he was four weeks between runs last start and just knocked up a touch late as well. Commander copped a bump on the turn last start and I reckon he beats home Watchdog there if that didn’t happen. I have to be against Watchdog and he is a good midweek horse but he is one paced and always comes up under the odds.

Advice: Notio to win.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: With Wolfe now out, it leaves the speed up in the air. Commander come across? Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend:It's hard to tell which way the market will trend.

Selections: 1-5-3-6

1.Notio ($3.40)- he was OK at Rosehill last start when caught back on the inside which I reckon was inferior ground on the day. Had best split in race from 400-200 and knocked up late four weeks between runs. He has won at a mile before. Always think a quick back up is underrated.

5.Commander ($5)- Copped a bump on the turn last start and I reckon he beats home Watchdog there if that didn’t happen. Prefer it wet but OK on top of ground.

3. Slow Burn ($6.50)- Not a lot of luck latest and should have finished closer and was wide prior. Finds a winnable race.

6.Watchdog ($5)- Come up unders for mine. Midweek horse who is one paced. Chance but shouldn’t be second fav IMO.

Other runners:

8. Flying Pierro ($8), 9. Tour Down Under ($40).

 

Race 6

Overview: I concede Wolfe is a progressive horse but $2.70? Sheesh, that’s short! The form around him last prep wasn’t anything great at all and he just seems very well found here providing he gets a run of course (first emergency). I was too slow to grab the $51 about Eastender but I still think the $17 is acceptable. He clocked the best late splits of the day when winning at Devonport first-up over 1880m last prep with 65kg and I loved the way he trialled up for this. This is his first run for Chris Waller and he is worth a play at odds. So You Win has had a little freshen and looks the horse to beat off a nice trial. Dagny has developed a habit of missing the jump but will run on, while Goodfella just rarely runs a bad race and must also be in the mix somewhere. Wu Gok and Savacool also have claims in a tough race.

Advice: Could speck Eastender each-way here at $17. Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Speed looks genuine. Stablemates Stampede and Wolfe are right there along with Goodfella.

Likely market trend: Wolfe has to get out from $2.70. He just seems too short. Eastender has been $51-$17 but could firm again.

2.Eastender ($11)- Staying type resuming off a nice trial. Won first-up at Devenport over 1880m last prep when clocking best late splits of day with 65kg! Good third in Andrew Ramsden before a freshen. Runs on. 1st run for C Waller.

7.So You Win ($5)- Looks the horse to beat- Freshened- Maybe a touch wet latest but form prior was strong. Should be strong late off a nice trial..

4.Goodfella ($7.50)- Just rarely runs a bad race. Has form up and above this distance. Third up still improvg.

13.Wolfe ($4.50)- Concede he has upside but $2.70? Sheesh, that’s short in a very open race. Form around him last prep fair at best. Needs to go on. Unders.

Other chances:

8.Wu Gok ($9)- prefers wet but so consistent this prep. Another chance.

10.Savacool ($12)- probably not going well enough but no weight on her back and on her day she would go close here.

11. Dagny ($15)- Habit of missing the jump but closing off well last few. Dry no issue

Other runners:

1. Stampede ($20), 5. New Tipperary ($156), 6. Testashadow ($39), 9. High Opinion ($52).

 

Race 7

Overview: Fascinating race. What do we do with Wren’s Day? He has trialled up well, has form around Cracksman and Cloth Of Stars (who has form around Enable!) but has opened up quite short at $2.60. He makes it a hard race to really bet confidently into because it could well be too short for him and he could also be too classy. It’s hard to knock Seaway despite the weight rise and he was pretty good when returning to winning form last start. I reckon Firsthand can improve sharply here back onto a dry deck. He just had to get too far back last start from the wide draw. There are two real roughies here that are place chances in Patrick Erin and Etymology. Both often pull out very good runs fresh and should be running on late here.

Advice: Very open. Could entertain something small on Firsthand and/or Patrick Erin and even Etymology the place only.

Confidence: 4/10.

Speed map: Solid speed expected with Cradle Mountain and Special Missile both renowned leaders. Seaway isn’t far away and Firsthand could box seat.

Likely market trend: Wren’s Day has great form lines but I expect him to get out in betting here from $2.70.

Selections: 8-4-6-1

8.Firsthand ($10)- Good from back latest on wet track when went back from draw. Should be much handier here and dry deck suits. Can run well. Beat Seaway home two back and gets a 2.5kg swing for doing so.

4.Seaway ($3.80)- Too good when defeating Goodfella on a dry deck. Up 4.5kg the leveller but gets a chance again. Slightly back in trip.

6.Wren’s Day ($3.80)- 2nd to Cracksman two back and beat home Cloth Of Stars there who then finished third to Enable in the Arc later that year. Had issues obviously and first up since August last year. Showed speed and trialled well. 1400m too short?

1.Patrick Erin ($18)- Always runs a race fresh. 4TH to Winx first-up last prep 1400m and ete catching 6th first up the prep prior beaten 2L 1400m. Can run on late!

Other chances:

9. Cradle Mountain ($12)- Been a bit disappointing this prep but better two back and then too bad to be true latest. Trial since was pleasing.

5.Etymology ($35)- Gets back but always runs a cheeky race fresh. 3rd, 3rd and 2nd last 3 fresh runs in solid races. Will be hitting the line.

Other runners:

2. Sir Charles Road ($141), 3. Fabrizio ($141), 7. Special Missile ($18), 10. Girl Tuesday ($40), 11. Bangkok ($10).

 

Race 8

Overview: Hard to get away from the market here and the winner should come from Thy Kingdom Come or Venezuela. Thy Kingdom Come has a sense of timing about him third up and he was caught wide without cover last start. James McDonald rides from the inside draw and he was a big winner at his only run on this track. I like the way Venezuela has trialled up and he was in front 200m past the line in a recent trial. He looks to be going particularly well. Bull Market comes through an average race fresh but should appreciate the extra distance and the $4.40 the place looks OK. Shock Alert has been really good at two runs back and also has claims. Does he want one more and 1600m is the query.

Advice: Thy Kingdom Come if the track is fair. If inside is off by this time of the day, Venezuela.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Speed looks strong. Falcon Island and Shock Alert look the main two leaders, while Thy Kingdom Come just parks in behind them I would suggest.

Likely market trend: Reckon track pattern is key here. If the inside is fine, Thy Kingdom Come starts fav, if favouring outside, Venezuela could start fav.

Selections: 1-10-8-6

1.Thy Kingdom Come ($3.70)- Has a sense of timing about him third up and he was caught wide without cover last start. James McDonald rides from the inside draw and he was a big winner at his only run on this track (it was a day where there was a big on pace bias though). The Kensington track has played well in recent months but early on it did play off fence late in day, is that an issue here? Will see how day pans out.

10.Venezuela ($4.80)- Former Lloyd Williams, now with Kim Waigh. I like the way he has trialled up and he was in front 200m past the line in a recent trial. He won the hit out prior. He looks to be going particularly well and looks to have that bit of sharpness in the legs.

8.Shock Alert ($11)- Two runs back have both been really good. May want one more and 1600m but going well this prep and no shock to see him in the finish.

6.Bull Market ($13)- OK fresh on day hard to make ground. Weak form race but should appreciate further. Place chance.

Other chance:

5. Nicochet ($9.50)- Ran on well last start to get there in last stride. Form out of race hasn’t been great but dry track is a plus again.  

Other runners:

2. Groundbreak ($13), 3. Falcon Island ($22), 4. Mapmaker ($17), 9. I Am Vinnie ($67), 12. Pembroke Castle ($22).

 

Race 9

Overview: Messy race to finish the day. I’m convinced Mr Songman is the best horse in this race comfortably but the three knocks are he is first-up off a long break, over a trip well short of his best and he has drawn wide with good speed inside him. Having said that, he may still win. Ranier has trialled up OK but didn’t have the blinkers on and he wears them race day. He has been gelded this prep. Tell Me has been racing well in Victoria and has race fitness on her side, while All Too Royal trialled up well enough and should be hitting the line hard (I’m assuming they go back from the gate?). There look to be other chances too.

Advice: Work multiples around Mister Songman, Ranier and All Too Royal.

Speed map: Strong speed expected here. Goldfinch, Catesby, Noble Joey, Mister Songman and Isorich all press forward. It could set it up for a swooper.

Selections: 5-1-7-8

5.Mr Songman ($3.30)- Convinced heis the best horse in this race comfortably but the three knocks are he is first-up off a long break, over a trip well short of his best and he has drawn wide with good speed inside him. Can win but can’t back at $3?

1.All Too Royal ($7)- Trialled up well. Likely to drift back but barely put a foot wrong last prep and should be charging late.

7.Ranier ($7)- Trials fair but without blinker (they go on race day). Disappointing last prep but Nakeeta Jane form prep prior reads well.

8. Laburnum ($12)- Came a long way last prep and rounded out with stakes win. Trialled well. Probably too short but will run on.

Other hopes for multiples:

13.Tell Me ($10)- Race fitness on her side. Just missed in Melbourne latest. Form out of race has been poor though but gets in light.

2. Single Bullet ($36)- Hit and miss but back onto a dry deck. Has a big finish on day. Prefer at 1000m though.

14. Oakfield Missile ($49)- Like this horse- Think she is underrated. This looks too short but can finish off.

Other runners:

4. Goldfinch ($49), 6. Legend Of Condor ($29), 9. Catesby ($18), 10. Murillo ($15), 12.Noble Joey ($73), 15. Isorich ($293).



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Kensington Aug 17

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