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Brad Davidson preview Randwick July 6

 Jul 6 2019

Randwick

Normal strategy (65 units)

Race 2 no.5 Siege Warfare 10 unit win at $6 and 10 unit place at $2.20

Race 5 no.2 Kellstorm 10 unit place at $3.10

Race 6 no.5 Wu Gok 5 unit win at $4.80

Race 9 no.9 Misteed 10 unit win at $4.40

5 unit quaddie (starts r6, 13.8%): 1st leg: 5,2,1. 2nd leg: 5-4-9. 3rd leg: 9-12. 4th leg: 9-11.

5 unit early quaddie (starts r2, 27.7%):  1st leg: 5-2-9. 2nd leg: 8. 3rd leg: 2,5. 4th leg: 1,7,2.

10 unit multi ($3.74)- Race 2 no.5 Siege Warfare to place ($2.20) into Race 6 no.5 Wu Gok to place ($1.70).

Betting results since started on April 20: +197.8 units, 10%POT, 1941 unit outlay

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Think! About your choices.

 

Long term strategy (1.2 units)

Race 2 no.5 Siege Warfare 0.25 unit win at $6 and 0.25 unit place at 2.10

Race 5 no.2 Kellstorm 0.25 unit place $3.10

Race 6 no.5 Wu Gok 0.2 unit win at $4.80

Race 9 no.9 Misteed 0.25 unit win at $4.40

Betting results since started on April 20: +14.3 unit profit, (24%POT, 59.35 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9

14/01/2017       Rand     9m        G4         On pace adv, fair, 3 wide ok.                                           

24/04/2018       Rand     9M        g3          quick track but could make ground- If anything off fence to middle best but few winners still near fence too                                         

7/07/2018         Rwick    9m        H8         Hard to lead and win (wind playedf factor) outside fence clearly best ground. Strong Westerly                                              

12/01/2019       Randwick           9m        s6-G4              Pretty fair track this. Hard fence maybe .5L inferior but some horses sgtill ran well there      

 

Assessment: Despite what you may think with the rail being out so far, this is normally a very fair rail position and if anything plays towards middle and outside of track.

Race 1

Overview: Tricky little race to kick off with. Rule The World was pretty good on debut at Canterbury (although he was on the right part of the track) and the step up to 1300m should suit. I thought Frosty Rocks lost the plot around the turn on debut but I liked his last 100m against Rule The World and he wasn’t on the best part of the track that day.  True Detective has been a touch keen at the trials but he won on debut last time in (right part of track and winning time was three lengths slower than the fillies on the same day). The form out of that race hasn’t been great (nine subsequent starters 1 placing). Roman Wolf just has to run out the 1300m to be a chance.

Advice: Not much between the top two.

Confidence: 4/10.

Selections: 5-2-1-4

5.Frosty Rocks ($3.20)- Not on best part track debyt and seemed to lose plot a bit around the turn. Was strong late. 1300m should suoit beijg out of Galileo mare,

2.Rule The World ($2.50)- Good win on debut and stable/rider feel he will be a nice miler+ in time. 3L quicker than fillies on day but got tired late. Was on fence in run which accounted for 6/7 winners on day and 15/21 top 3 placegetters.

1.Roman Wolf ($8)- Led and just bumped into smart one Kenso. Time was good compared to 3YO Mdn on day which was also won by smart horse. 1300m?

4. Betcha Flying($9)-

Other runners:

7. Siesta Key ($17), 8. Strange Charm ($139).

Race 2

Overview: Not a bad little Highway. The one that interest me from a betting perspective at odds is Siege Warfare. He comes out a strong race at the provincials last time out and the good thing about him is he has great form on wet ground. He can run well at odds. I was with I Am Capitan first-up and he looked home before being caught on the post. I’m not sure about the drop back to 1000m but another wet track helps him.  I think the wet track is against San Marco but I love the sectionals he has been producing in recent starts (quickest last 600m of the day at his past two starts) and he has each-way prospects if the track dries out a touch. Syd’s Footprints is yet to see a wet track and that’s the query for mine but he will have plenty of admirers. Brett Cavanough will no doubt have him ready for this despite no public trials.

Advice- Siege Warfare each-way.

Confidence: 6/10.

Selections: 5-2-9-4

5.Siege Warfare ($5)- Chased home a good one LS and time was strong- 1.3s qucker 1100m mdn on day. Loves wet tracks on form. Won heavy and soft 7. Good place chance

2.Syd’s Footprints ($3.50)- Good form last time in. No trials but expect him to be up to the mark for this. No wet track runs??

9.San Marco ($9)- if it was dry, he would be on top but his soft track runs haven’t been great. Nonetheless, sits off a good speed and runs well. QL600 of day last two starts including fresh. Drops significantly in weight.

4. Logan River ($12)-

Other chance:

8. Nevada Dane ($12)-

Other runners: 6. Tootz ($12), 7. Alcatran ($12), 10. Polar Star ($36), 11. Pisa My Heart ($36), 12. Caccini ($24).

Race 3

Overview: This could be a really nice horse this Sir Elton. He has bolted in at both starts to date and he has smashed the clock too. His latest win was 1.3s (about eight lengths) quicker than the other 1100m maiden on the same day and his debut win was 1.5s quicker (nine lengths) quicker than the other 1100m maiden on the day. He has opened up too short with the bookies but should drift considering he has a wide gate with speed inside and also is yet to see a genuine wet track. . The tongue tie went on Embracer last start and he won well in good figures although he was on the best part of the track. The second horse in that race was beaten as favourite at Canterbury on Wednesday. He looks the danger all the same. Bare Naked Lady gets the blinkers on and did beat Embracer home two back (meets him 3kg better off for doing so as well).

Advice: Sir Elton on top but happy to watch.

Confidence: 7/10.

Selections: 8-4-6-5

8.Sir Elton ($2)- could be a really nice horse this Sir Elton. He has bolted in at both starts to date and he has smashed the clock too. His latest win was 1.3s (about eight lengths) quicker than the other 1100m maiden on the same day and his debut win was 1.5s quicker (nine lengths) quicker than the other 1100m maiden on the day. He has opened up too short with the bookies but should drift considering he has a wide gate with speed inside and also is yet to see a genuine wet track.

4.Embracer ($3.80)- The tongue tie went on Embracer last start and he won well in good figures although he was on the best part of the track. The second horse was beaten as a fav at Canterbury on Wednesday but he ran time.

6.Bare Naked Lady ($11)- gets the blinkers on and did beat Embracer home two back (meets him 3kg better off for doing so as well).

5. Skyray ($22),

Other runners: 1. Dio D’Oro ($22), 3. The EnzO ($66), 7. Quick Nick ($65), 9. Gimme Shelter ($32).

Race 4

Overview: Not a race I’m overly keen on but I will put Master Shuhood on top at the odds. He overcame trouble to score first-up last prep and I like the way he has trialled up for this. The knock is his wet form doesn’t read overly well. Monsier Sisu should lead these and he should proce hard to catch especially now that he is really fit. Sweet Victory was wide without cover last start and she is better than what she showed there. She was good two back when not on the best part of the track at Rosehill. Spectre runs well and his run was better than it looked last start where he just had to get too far back from the gate. I hope they roll forward here.

Advice: Not a race I’m keen to play.

Confidence: 5/10.

Selections: 2-5-7-3

2.Monsieur Sisu ($2.60)- Should lead these and he should proce hard to catch especially now that he is really fit. Spectre runs well and his run was better than it looked last start where he just had to get too far back from the gate. I hope they roll forward here.

5.Sweet Victory ($2.90)- wide without cover last start and she is better than what she showed there. She was good two back when not on the best part of the track at Rosehill. Would prefer an improving track.

7. I’m Pretty Strong ($13)-

3. Attention Run ($13)-

Other runners: 4. Costello ($16), 8. Decroux ($16).

 

Race 5

Overview: Hard to go past the favourite Fanciful Toff and he was a pretty strong winner over this track and distance on a wet track last time out. He draws a touch awkwardly here but looks the horse to beat. Ombudsman should be peaking now and should get a nice smother from the gate. The wet track is no issue. Jake’s Hill hasn’t won for some time but he loves wet tracks and gets another chance. Kellstorm is in the same boat and he is another one that relishes the genuine wet tracks. I just don’t think he saw out two miles last time out.

Advice: Kellstorm the place.

Confidence: 5/10.

Selections: 1-7-2-6

1.Fanciful Toff ($2.50)- He was a pretty strong winner over this track and distance on a wet track last time out beating the likes of Ombudsman a long way. He draws a touch awkwardly here but looks the horse to beat.

7.Ombudsman ($8)- Just missed latest and should be peaking now. Has a win this t/d on wet track last prep.

2.Kellstorm ($10)- Don’t reckon he ran out two miles but he was backed and he seems to have a liking for wet tracks. Comes through  stronger form lines than most of these.

6.Jake’s Hill ($8)-Hasn’t won for 758 days or 15 starts but he likes wet tracks. Narrowly beaten by Future Score LS who beat home Battle Camp the start prior. That horse was beaten less than a length by Fanciful Toff the start prior so the form ties in.

Other runners: 3. Bobby Dee ($11), 5. Raqeeq ($23), 8. Our Candidate ($17), 9. Latin Light ($34), 11. Kaapfever ($27), 12. Eerised ($138).

Race 6

Overview: One of the hardest races of the day this. Dr Drill is a deserved favourite off his form in Melbourne but does he handle a wet track? He is yet to see worse than a soft 5 but three winners have come out of his last start romp in Melbourne. Wu Gok was two months between runs last start when not far off Primitivo and he loves wet ground. Zourkhan also had a decent gap between runs last start but loves the mud (how wet is this track going to be?). Nahuel and Top Prospect can both jump out of the ground second-up, while Mongolian Wolf is on the quick back up and is building. Dagny is ticking over well and even Dalmatia Prince is not hopeless at huge odds. Confused yet? I am.

Advice: Leaning to Wu Gok.

Confidence: 5/10

Selections: 5-2-1-7

5.Wu Gok ($4.60)- two months between runs last start when not far off Primitivo and he loves wet ground. Shin  rides a big tick.

2.Dr Drill ($2.70)- deserved favourite off his form in Melbourne but does he handle a wet track? He is yet to see worse than a soft 5 but three winners have come out of his last start romp in Melbourne. Soft lead there but scooted home in strong figures, 3rd/5th/12th all won since.

1.Zourkhan ($8) also had a decent gap between runs last start but loves the mud (how wet is this track going to be?). 1800m should be no issue. Probably goes back but good tempo here

7.Top Prospect ($14)- Quickest split race first up between 400-200 and then knocked up last 200m. Won second up last prep and can improve.

Other chances:

3. White Boots ($10)- Never runs a bad race. Just drawn wide here with speed inside?

4.Mongolian Wolf ($22)- QBU. Not on best part of track LS. Building toards something

6.Dagny ($22)- Not hopeless. Ticking over OK and can settle closer here from better draw. Won heavy early in career but still a ?

13. Dalmatia Prince ($25)- Wet tracker who isn’t hopeless with no weight on back.

Other runners: 11. Veladero ($351).

Race 7

Overview: Deity ran well fresh and she gets a nice little 2.5kg weight swing on Invictus Salute now. She should have won second up last prep at Canterbury. Revenire is a 1000m horse and he won’t mind if the rain falls. Sharpe Hussler is a hard horse to catch but I can’t get out of my mind his win at Rosehill off a freshen at 1100m last year. He clocked easily the best late splits of the day and has ability. I just don’t want the track too wet and trainer Cam Crockett felt he may need the run when I spoke to him this week. Royal Witness has trialled up well and must be considered, while Epic Dan did sit three wide without cover last start and looked home before the wide run told the last 100m. He returns to 1000m here and the wetter the better for him.

Advice- Leaning to Deity.

Confidence: 6/10.

Selections: 5-4-9-8

5.Deity ($3.60)- Deity ran well fresh and she gets a nice little 2.5kg weight swing on Invictus Salute now. She should have won second up last prep at Canterbury. Man of the moment, Blake Shinn rides.

4.Revenire ($6.50) is a 1000m horse and he won’t mind if the rain falls. Likes Randwick as well. Gets back and always needs luck,

9.Epic Dan ($7.50)- Race rated several lengths slower than Spiritual Pursuit race Deity and Invictus Salute come through on same day LS but he was 3WNC and at 1200m. Back to 1000m helps if genuine heavy.

8.Invictus Salute ($7)- Ridden quiet LS and seemed to work. Similar tactics?

Other chances:

3.Sharpe Hussler ($19)- He is a hard horse to catch but I can’t get out of my mind his win at Rosehill off a freshen at 1100m last year. He clocked easily the best late splits of the day and has ability. I just don’t want the track too wet.

7.Royal Witness ($9) has trialled up really well and he beat November Man first-up last prep (just!). genyine wet track would be a ? plus speed inside but loves 1000m.

Other runners: 1. Latin Boy ($19), 6. Ravens Blaze ($19), 11. Natalia ($11).

Race 8

Overview: Looks a nice race for Ljungberg third up and he has been building nicely this prep. The wet track should be no issue and I go back to his win on a heavy track at Canterbury last year where he beat River Bird despite being three wide (there was a massive bias where you had to be rails in run that night). He draws well and looks the one. Charretera is an emergency as I type this but he looks the danger if he gets a run. He looked the winner last start and then just didn’t see out the 1400m. He comes back to 1300m here.

Advice- Ljungberg on top but well enough found as well.

Confidence: 7/10

Selections: 9-12-5-7

9.Ljungberg ($2.30)- third up and he has been building nicely this prep. The wet track should be no issue and I go back to his win on a heavy track at Canterbury last year where he beat River Bird despite being three wide (there was a massive bias where you had to be rails in run that night). He draws well and looks the one.

12.Charretera ($3.70) is an emergency as I type this but he looks the danger if he gets a run. He looked the winner last start and then just didn’t see out the 1400m. He comes back to 1300m here.

5. Conarchie ($17)- Loves a wet track.

7. Bangkok ($17)

Other runners: 6. Arraignment ($26),  8. Condor ($17), 10. Shock Alert ($35), 11. Silent General ($52), 15. Shazee Lee ($26).

Race 9

Overview: I think this market is a touch wrong. Firstly, I’m shocked Terminology has opened under $4. She didn’t handle the wet at all last start, has company on front and is a query at 1400m. She just has to drift here. I thought the $5 about Misteed seemed a decent gamble. I know she was on the best part of the track last start at Canterbury but she was held up until the 125m mark and still beat several of her rivals comfortably here. She meets them better at the weights, draws well to get to the middle of the track at this time of day and loves wet ground. The knock is the 1400m and she had one go at it earlier in her career and failed. She could also just be a fresh horse as her second-up record isn’t great. Still, she is at a nice price. Aim For Perfection appears to be crying out for the 1400m and she just didn’t really get around Canterbury last start (she wasn’t on the best part of the track either). She gets in light but gate two might be a negative at this time of the day. The other one that interests me is Velocita and first-up fitness on a wet track is a query but I like the way she has trialled with the blinkers on and she may have last say down the outside. Shazee Lee drops considerably in grade, was OK is a very slow run race fresh and has 1400m form. She is not hopeless either.

Advice: Misteed to win. Include Velocita and Shazee Lee in multiples at odds.

Confidence: 6/10.

Selections: 9-11-5-2

9.Misteed ($4)- I know she was on the best part of the track last start at Canterbury but she was held up until the 125m mark and still beat several of her rivals comfortably here. She meets them better at the weights, draws well to get to the middle of the track at this time of day and loves wet ground. The knock is the 1400m and she had one go at it earlier in her career and failed. She could also just be a fresh horse as her second-up record isn’t great. Still, she is at a nice price.

11.Aim For Perfection ($4)- appears to be crying out for the 1400m and she just didn’t really get around Canterbury last start (she wasn’t on the best ground either). She gets in light but gate two might be a negative at this time of the day.

5.Velocita ($7.50)- Trialled well twice this time in with blinkers on. They went on start before break where she was disappointing but pulled up slow to recover. Gets back but handles wet and runs on.

2. Notation ($7.50)- Tough as they come but 1400m looks a query?

Against:

3. Terminology ($9)- Didn’t handle the wet track according to the stewards report LS and now a big query at 1400m. Has to drift from $4. Looks well under the odds right now.

Other runners: 6. Levee Bank ($32), 7. Echo Gem ($32), 8. Curata Princess ($259), 12. Dame Kiri ($55).

 



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Randwick July 6

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