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Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm July 10

 Jul 9 2019

Rosehill Aug 10

Best each-way

Race 2 no.2 Taniko $5.50 and $2.40 (only two place divs) ***1 x 5- playing place much more heavily

Concede Haut Brion Her is going to be hard to beat but Taniko is a bet at $6 and particularly the $2.60 to run top two. I’ll be playing 1 x 3 as I’m very confident she is the only horse who can knock off Haut Brion Her. She been super from the back her past two starts. Her figures were much better than Haut Brion Her on the day two back when they both won races on the same day (last 600m 7 lengths quicker!) and then a lack of tempo beat her last start when she produced easily the best late splits of the day again. She has produced the quickest last 600m of the day by 2L and 4L at her past two starts.

Best value

Race 3 no.14 Isadora Twinkle $11 and $3.60

I know she was big odds last start but she had no luck and should have finished alongside Onemore Sapphire at least and that horse is $4 here? Has winning form up to 2000m so extra trip no worries. Looks the overs.

Best value

Race 7 no.3 Desert Path $19 and $5 

He did enough for mine fresh at Caufield on a soft track and I liked his last 200m. Now he finds a dry deck (big plus) and a bigger track. Second-up last prep he just missed behind Goathland at 2000m at Randwick. Open race but he can run on here despite being weighted up to his best.

 

Expected firmers

Race 2 no.2 Taniko $5.50 (should start clear second fav and firm in from $6 to $4-$5)

 

Expected drifters

Race 2 no.7 Connemara $5 (surprised if she starts second fav, has to drift)

Race 4 no.1 Le Romain $3.90 (seems well found for a horse who is well exposed and prefers wet ground)

Race 8 no.1 Black Magnum $2.70 (great chance but confident you will get more than $2.70)

Race 9 no.8 Oneness $4 (looks severely under the odds, if he doesn’t drift significantly, I’ll be shocked)

 

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy (105 units)

Race 2 no.2 Taniko 10 unit win at $5.50 and 50 unit place at $2.40 (only 2 divs)

Race 3 no.14 Isadora Twinkle 15 unit win at $11 and 15 unit place $3.60

Race 7 no.3 Desert Path 5 unit win at $19 and 5 unit place at $5

5 unit all up ($11.31): Race 1 no.3 Wimlah to place ($1.90) into Race 2 no.2 Taniko to place ($2.40) into Race 4 no.4 Alizee ($1.55) to win into Race 9 no.2 The Avenger to place ($1.60)

Quaddie to come race day

 

Long game strategy (3.5 units)

Race 2 no.2 Taniko 0.25 unit win at $5.50 and 1.75 unit place at $2.40 (only two place divs)

Race 3 no.14 Isadora Twinkle 0.5 unit win at $11 and 0.5 unit place at $3.60

Race 7 no.13 Desert Path 0.25 unit win at $19 and 0.25 unit place at $5

 

Rail true, good track

History:

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9                                    

27/01/2018       Rosehill TRUE     g4          Pretty fair track this                                                    

17/03/2018       Rose      TRUE     G4         Track played well hard fence 1-2L inferior                                               

5/05/2018         Rosehill TRUE     G4         Pretty fair track this- wanted to get off rail but few late winners came on rail to suggest it was fine                                                   

16/06/2018       Rosehill TRUE     s6          4-5 off best place but could still win closer to fence                                          

28/07/2018       Rose      True      g4          Could maeke ground but inside 1-2 lanes advantage- could still win  out wide                                                     

8/09/2018         Rosehill True      h8         On pace early but chopped out late and winners came wider                                            

3/11/2018         Rosehill True      G4         On pace a bit of an advantage but could make sground still. Got wider as day went on. Hard fence not place but could win cppl off                                                

24/11/2018       Rose      True      G4         Confident best ground off fence here 3-4 wide seemed place to be in straight. Just didn't really want to be hard fence or out too wide                                         

19/01/2019       Rose      True      G4         On pace helped. Probably ddin't want to be hard fence. Most winnerd wide but still some close to fence won 

16/03/2019       Rose      True      H10       Getting a few off fence here and wider good too.

18/05/2019       Rosehill True      G4         Pretty fair track, fence OK but I still reckon wider the better and fence sl inferior. Lanes 3-6 OK but wider fine too                                                      

29/06/2019       Rosehill True      H9         bit on pace to start with but swooped last few races and evened up midway. Fence a no go here Wanted to get middle and wider.                                    

Assessment- Normally fence and first few lanes inferior here. You probably don’t want to be too far off them.

Wind: Moderate westerly predicted: Crosswind granfstand across to running rail in straight.

 

Race 1

Overview: Looks a race in two for mine between Adana and Wimlah. I was taken by the way Wimlah closed off over the seven furlongs last start off a slow tempo and my only concern is whether she is looking for further. She defeated Front Sight (beaten as favourite since) the start prior. Adana is an interesting runner and his form around Vegadaze first-up last prep looks very good for this. They’ve saved him for this over a 1200m race on Wednesday at Canterbury. I was concerned by the way he missed the jump in a recent trial but he closed off solidly there. Savoury is only coming off a Canterbury maiden win but he will appreciate the extra trip and gets in light. Subdebar was one I missed on first glance but I reckon he is a good light weight hope here the more I look at it.

Advice: Wimlah or Sebedar.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Tempo looks solid with Pembroke Castle, Holy Reign and Whispered all prominent. Backmarkers should get their chance.

Likely market trend: Expect Wimlah to firm from $5 and the gap between her and Adana to close up. Sedgemoor should drift.

Selections: 3-9-5-8

3.Wimlah($4)- I was taken by the way Wimlah closed off over the seven furlongs last start off a slow tempo and my only concern is whether she is looking for further. She defeated Front Sight (beaten as favourite since) the start prior. Gets back the knock>?

9. Subedar ($8)- Underestimated at first glance but looks progressive. Heavily backed fresh, gets in light with good jockey. Beat nothing but might go on?

5.Adana ($4.50)- his form around Vegadaze first-up last prep looks very good for this. They’ve saved him for this over a 1200m race on Wednesday at Canterbury. I was concerned by the way he missed the jump in a recent trial but he closed off solidly there. Gets back, runs on.

8.Savoury ($7)- Good win first-up. Time was .7s quicker than other mdn on day and most was L600. By Savabeel so should improve over this trip. Gets in light.

Other runners:

1. Danawi ($14), 2. Pembroke Castle ($16), 4. Holy Reign ($25),  6. Sedgemoor ($14) 10. Whispered ($33).

 

Race 2

Overview: Keen to back Taniko here and she been super from the back her past two starts. Her figures were much better than Haut Brion Her on the day two back and then tempo beat her last start when she produced easily the best late splits of the day easily. Haut Brion Her is a classy filly and she will start favourite here if she goes around in this race. They look the clear two for mine. Josephine Sea has a good fresh record and produced easily the best late splits of the day when winning first-up at Seymour last prep (saved ground along the rail). She is a place chance at odds here. The race Stella Sea Sun and Connemara came through last start wasn’t the strongest and happy to be against both of those here.

Advice- Taniko each-way- Three times more the place (two divs only).

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Speed looks moderate. Expect Secret Lady to lead with Haut Brion Her handy. Taniko drifts back.

Likely market trend: Expect Haut Brion Her to stay rock solid but I expect Taniko to be clear second favourite come jump. Current second favourite Connemara just has to drift from $5.

Selections: 2-5-7-8

2.Taniko ($4)- she been super from the back her past two starts. Her figures were much better than Haut Brion Her on the day two back and then tempo beat her last start when she produced easily the best late splits of the day easily. Quickest last 600m on day by 2L and 4L her past two starts.

5.Haut Brion Her ($1.95)- Classy filly. Defeated subs winner in Misteed easly last prep. Two from two this prep, sits on speed and able to produce best late splits. Stays at 1200m.

7.Connemara- Gets 2.5kg swing on Stella Sea Sun and may be able to turn the tables on that horse from LS? Just reckon that’s the wrong form line here. 6L slower tan 2YO race on day (all L600 but still).

8. Secret Lady- Could lead with no weight on back? Needs to improve but a more aggressive ride could help?

Other runners:

1. My Xpression ($23), 4. Charlayne ($27), 7. Connemara ($12), 8. Secret Lady ($21), 10. Moccasin Miss ($55).

Race 3

Overview: I thought Isadora Twinkle was a good chance at each-way odds here. She snuck under the radar last time out but it’s fair to say with even luck she at least finishes right alongside Onemore Sapphire. The key to her is she has won up to 2000m and the dry track appears to be her preferred surface. Onemore Sapphire and Black Wand both went close in that same race and they just need to handle the step up to 1800m now. Both seem capable of that. Mr Trump showed good staying potential when climbing off the canvas to score at the Sapphire Coast last start and he is by Reliable Man, so the extra trip should suit.

Advice: Isadora Twinkle each-way.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Speed in these Highways always seem to be strong. Stratum’s Rose, Perfect Rhyme and Apache Junction roll forward.

Likely market trend: Pretty open here. I reckon Isadora Twinkle could firm up from $11 on the last start effort.

Selections: 14-4-3-1

14.Isadora Twinkle ($9)- No luck last start and should have finished alongside Onemore Sapphire at least. Has winning form up to 2000m so extra trip no worries. Looks the overs.

4.Black Wand ($5)- produced some really good late splits in Brisbane and then backed it up with a big run in Hway grade when beating home Onemore Sapphire and Isadora Twinkle. 1800m the ? but appears as if will run it,

3.Onemore Sapphire ($4.50)- Keeps running on and finding one or two better in Hway grade. 1800m the ? but appears as if will get it? Seems short enough but runs well.

1.Mr Trump ($16)- Like the way he climbed off canvass to score (second horse was stopping as well though). By Reliable Man, so extra trip should suit.,

Other runners:

2. Delete ($44), 5. Apache Junction ($33), 6. Biodynamic ($131), 7. Caesars Ghost ($131), 8. Saintly Sunrise ($33), 9. Refire ($33), 10. Clergyman ($16), 11. Walkinshaw ($262), 12. Perfect Rhyme ($22), 13. Stratum’s Rose ($16), 15. Confidential ($22), 16. Sepulchre ($22), 17. Frozen Asset ($656), 18. Roseirro ($262).

Race 4

Overview: Hard to go past Alizee and she looks a clear top pick here as the market suggests. She won well with 60.5kg first-up last prep and then defeated Le Romain easily second up. She sits back off a potentially slow tempo here but the thing is she can spring off a slow tempo and still produce the figures to beat these. Vegadaze looks the danger if there is one but he is very poorly weighted here and bumps into a pretty classy mare. Le Romain and Invincible Gem look most likely to run third and fourth.

Advice- Alizee to win.

Confidence: 8/10.

Speed map: Le Romain and Vegadaze look the two on speed runners. Tempo looks soft but Alizee won’t be too far off them.

Likely market trend: Alizee drifted noticeably first-up last prep but was far too good. Does she drift again?

Selections: 4-2-1-5

4.Alizee ($1.45)- Hard to knock. Trials have been good and she just looks to have a class edge on these. First-up last prep won with 60.5kg. Really well weighted and even if they walk, she has the turn of foot to overcome it.

2.Vegadaze ($6)- Improver this spring. Came a long way last prep and form around The Autumn Sun reads well. Should be prominent early. Not well weighted the knock.

1.Le Romain ($9)- Grand old campaigner. Well beaten by Alizee first-up last prep. Prefers it wet. Not improving while the others above him in selections still are.

5.Invincible Gem ($32)- Can sometimes run a race fresh (won two from six first-up) but prefer as a third or fourth place hope here. Trials OK.

Other runners:

3. Dissolute (300)

Race 5

Overview: Lucicello comes back to 1100m here but she showed a dazzling turn of foot first-up off a strong tempo and if she produces the same finish, she’ll be hard to hold out again here. This is much stronger though. Anaheed is the proven galloper and while I’m convinced she prefers a wet track, she still has strong credentials on top of the ground. She has trialled up well.The query in this race is how the likes of Dawn Passage, Let It Pour, Cardiff and Superium have all returned. All four have impressed at the trials and market moves late could be important here.

Advice: Leaning to Lucicello.

Speed map: Speed looks genuine as I think Cardiff will roll at a good clip in front with Escaped also right there.

Likely market trend: Hard one to predict with a number of these returning from spells.

Selections: 5-2-1-9

5.Lucicello ($4)- Gets back and back in trip. Set up for the other day but last 600m was very good. Overall time 5-6L quicker older horses but tempo related. Should go quick again here. Starting to drop her head.

2.Dawn Passage ($6)- Good effort first-up last prep when winning in strong figures and then not best of luck WF when ran on late behind subs G1 winner. Triallled well. Blinkers on ,weren’t on in trials.

1.Anaheed ($6.50)- Proven performer. Great last prep winning a G2 before a break and trials was super coming in. Prefer her on wet ground but capable dry.

9.Escaped ($24)- Solid first-up at provincials but figures were good. Started $12 good race last prep wet track. Looks a bit over the odds here?

Other runners:

3. Athiri ($10), 4. Let It Pour ($10), 6. Not Feint Hearted ($20), 7. Cardiff ($16), 8. Superium ($16).

 

Race 6

Overview: Open race. Happy to go with All Too Soon at the odds. She prefers wet ground but her last three fresh runs have all been strong (won three back, best last 200m of the race two back when warming up late and then second to Seaway first-up 1500m at Rosehill last prep albeit on a wet track). She should be thereabouts at the finish. Sweet Deal has the best form lines for this but my knock on her is she can be that bit keen in the run. We saw that last time out and that’s why she can be that touch vulnerable late. Drachenfels, Top Striker and Fortensky are all capable as well, while Notio and Valentina Rossa aren’t without winning chances either.

Advice: All Too Soon the value? Tough race.

Confidence: 2/10.

Speed map: Speed looks moderate at best with Fortensky and maybe Got Unders rolling forward?

Likely market trend: Very open this. Not sure which way this will go.

Selections: 2-7-8-4

2.All Too Soon ($7.50): She prefers wet ground but her last three fresh runs have all been strong (won three back, best last 200m of the race two back when warming up late and then second to Seaway first-up 1500m at Rosehill last prep albeit on a wet track). She should be thereabouts at the finish.

7.Sweet Deal ($26)- best form for this but she can  be keen. Chased home subs G1 winner three back, then wide and good against subs Sydney winner Smartedge, then too keen latest.

8.Drachenfels ($7.50)- gets some weight relief but set up for him to finish off last Sat. Still reckon his best runs this prep have been fresh.

4.Fortensky ($7.50)- Lead and had every chance LS. On the QBU and up to 1400m now. Maps well.

Other chances:

5.Notio ($11)- Good win two back in weak form race (9 subs st 2 pl) and then slow to recover latest. Good track suits, can bounce back.

1.Top Striker ($11)- Won here three back, then good in Ramornie late when not a lot of luck and then went too slow for him the other day. 1400m still a bit of an unknown but he won at 1350m earlier in career.

9.Valentino Rossa- Backmarkers that needs a lot to go right. Kept fresh, good track suits.

Other runners:

3. Articus ($18), 6. Got Unders ($26), 9. Valentino Rossa ($13).

 

Race 7

Overview: I thought Desert Path was worth a speck here in a pretty open race. He did enough for mine fresh at Caufield on a soft track and second-up last prep he just missed behind Goathland at 2000m. The key is a dry track and he can run on here. Costello is the horse to beat but he is short enough at $3.50. He beat home subsequent winner Matowi last start and will love a dry surface and 2000m. Loveisili pulled up lame in front first-up and can jump out of the ground here, while Nahuel didn’t stretch out on the wet ground last start and is another who should relish the step up to 2000m.

Advice- Could speck Desert Path each-way here at 20s.

Confidence: 4/10.

Speed map: Tempo looks even with stablemates Scholarly and Ulusaba going forward. I reckon they roll on Scholarly so tempo should be even.

Likely market trend: Expect Costello to be popular and start a firm favourite. Desert Path has been $31-$19 but I reckon he might drift on race day. Loveisili may firm.

Selections: 3-6-2-9

3.Desert Path ($15)-He did enough for mine fresh at Caufield on a soft track and second-up last prep he just missed behind Goathland at 2000m. The key is a dry track and he can run on here. He is weighted up to his best.

6.Costello ($4)- is the horse to beat but he is short enough at $3.50. He beat home subsequent winner Matowi last start and will love a dry surface and 2000m. Should have gone close to winning LS if not held up before turn.

2.Loveisili ($7)- Loveisili pulled up lame in front first-up and can jump out of the ground here. Win prior at WF was good.

9. Matowi ($8)- Good win LS, held behind Costello prior and meets that horse worse off at weights now. Racing well though.

Other chance-

5.Nahuel ($11)- Too wet LS and will really appreciate the step up to 2000m. Can improve sharply back onto dry deck here.

Other runners:

1. Scholarly ($25), 4. Hogmanay ($19), 7. Gayatri ($50), 8. Our Winnie ($19), 11. Ulusaba ($11), 12. Missybeel ($15), 13. Spooky Wooky ($70).

 

Race 8

Overview:Pretty open race this. Black Magnum has been flying at the midweeks and the test now is 1200m up in class. The horse he beat last start was a good winner on Wednesday though at Canterbury. He should roll forward and can only run well again. Oxford Tycoon didn’t have a lot of luck last start when getting back onto a dry deck and he gets another opportunity here. The 1200m is probably on his outer limits though. I thought Prime Candidate ran really fresh off a long break and he should take natural improvement off that. Dawn Dawn has trialled up solidly, while Stella Sea Sun is not hopeless either.

Advice: Oxford Tycoon perhaps? Tough race.

Confidence: 4/10.

Speed map: Speed looks even enough with Prime Candidate, Black Magnum and Oxford Tycoon potentially pressing forward.

Likely market trend: Expect Oxford Tycoon to shorten from $6.50 off the luckless effort last start. I;m expecting Black Magnum to get out a touch from $2.70.

Selections: 8-1-3-7

8.Oxford Tycoon ($6)- No luck last start when back on dry track. Little sticky draw but I guess he rolls forward. 1200m outer limits?

1.Black Magnum ($3.80)- flying at the midweeks and the test now is 1200m up in class. The horse he beat last start was a good winner on Wednesday though at Canterbury Comes through best rating race of day last start.

3.Prime Candidate ($8) Good first0up off a long break. Deity got past him late there but natural improvement means he can probably beat her home here.

7. Stella Sea Sun ($8)- Good win last start but overall time much slower than Lucicello on day (5-6L). Was tempo related though. Just think she has been well placed to date.

Other chance:

9.Dawn Dawn ($13)- Closed off well two trials. First-up last prep best L200 in Melbourne where not far of some nice Group horses. Beaten by Prrime Candidate Cant last year.

4. Deity ($10)- WNC last start and kept coming. Knocking on the door!

10. Josephine Sea ($83)- Probably outclassed but fresh form is good. Won Seymour first-up last prep clocking easily best late splits of the day.

Other runners:

2. So Taken ($11), 5. Irukandji ($33), 11. No Interest ($89).

Race 9

Overview: Looks a deadest race in two between Cinquedea and The Avenger. Cinquedea is the horse to beat but I didn’t think it would be $1.90 v $5 all the same. The Avenger’s form up north has been good (had to go right back from wide gate two back and then strong late splits latest). He should be strong late. Cinquedea was given a peach of a ride last start when second to Phaistos but he beat the rest comfortably enough. He probably prefers the sting out of the track but draws well with Kerrin McEvoy to ride. There the two standouts for the quaddie anyway. I really think it’s daylight to the rest here so I won’t comment too much on them. Oneness looks under the odds at $3.90.

Betting strategy- Looks a two horse race with The Avenger the value.

Confidence: 6/10 on The Avenger 8/10 on it being a two horse race.

Speed map: Oneness and Mapmaker look the two on speed runners. Speed looks moderate unless they take each other on. Mapmaker can get running early at times.

Likely market trend: Expecting Cinquedea and The Avenger to clear out here and the rest drift. Cinquedea starts a clear favourite. Oneness is big unders at $3.90 and should start double that.

Selections: 2-5-8-10

2.The Avenger ($4)- The Avenger’s form up north has been good (gate beat him two back and then strong late splits latest).

5.Cinquedea ($2.20)- was given a peach of a ride last start when second to Phaistos but he beat the rest comfortably enough. He probably prefers the sting out of the track but draws well with Kerrin McEvoy to ride.

8.Oneness ($10)- Distant third pick. Looks unders at $3.90!

10.Weekend Affair- Going OK in midweek grade but this is much harder.

Other runners:

3. Cogliere ($34), 4. Mapmaker ($17), 6. Bye See ($28), 7. Great Glen ($43), 9. The Promise ($14).



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm July 10

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