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Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm July 17

 Jul 16 2019

Warwick Farm

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less. A few more bets on most occasions will be included here to spread the risk across a race day.

 

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy (90 units)

Race 1 no.1 Splendid Surprise 25 unit win at $3.20

Race 4 no.1 Front Sight 25 unit win at $2.40

Race 6 no.1 Oneness 10 unit win at $7

Race 7 no.2 Inanup 3 unit win at $13 and 7 unit place at $3.90

10 unit multi ($4.16)- Race 1 no.1 Splendid Surprise to place ($1.35) into Race 4 no.1 Front Sight to place ($1.40) into Race 6 no.1 Oneness to place ($2.20).

10 unit main quaddie (starts r4, 7.9%): 1st leg: 1. 2nd leg: 1-13-4-2-6-5. 3rd leg: 1-7-5. 4th leg: 2-8-1-3-4-5-9.

Betting results since started on April 20: +148.8 units, 6.9%POT, 2156 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy  (2.1 units)

Race 1 no.1 Splendid Surprise 0.75 units at $3.20

Race 4 no.1 Front Sight 0.75 unit at $2.40

Race 6 no.1 Oneness 0.25 unit win at $7

Race 7 no.2 Inanup 0.1 units win at $13 and 0.25 unit place at $3.90

Betting results since started on April 20: +14 unit profit, (22%POT, 63.9 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Track: Rail out 5m- soft 5 expecting.

History:

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9

28/01/2019       WF        5m        H9         Pretty on pace here. Small fields somewhat exagerrated this but not easy to make ground as a rule. Re lanes were getting a few off but back towards inside OK too. Just not hard fence                                           

26/01/2018       WF        5M        G4         Helped to be on rail but could makke ground too                                                 

7/03/2018         WF        5m        S5          played OK but hard fence not the place to be. Wider the better as a rule but could win from 2.5 horses off onwards                                                      

11/04/2018       WF        5            g4          Pretty even track really. Hard fence later in day not place to be as they got wider but OK early on. Could run on. Tempo related                                          

30/05/2018       WF        5m        s6          Middle of track best part fence 2-3L inferior                                                   

22/08/2018       WF        5m        G4         wanted to get off fence 1 or 2 lanes but only one winner further back than 4th all day and that was staying race                                           

10/10/2018       WF        5m        H10       As is the case with wet WF to the middle and wider best ground- Fence not hopeless- Could sit three wide no cover in run here                                                     

5/12/2018         WF        5m        G4         On speed here most of the day only one winner further back 4th and that was last race. Didn't want hard fence. Lanes 1-4 best early then wider later                                              

28/01/2019       WF        5m        H9         Pretty on pace here. Small fields somewhat exagerrated this but not easy to make ground as a rule. Re lanes were getting a few off but back towards inside OK too. Just not hard fence                             

17/04/2019       WF        5M        G4         Fence and first two lanes advantage and on pace, hard to make ground out wide                                                     

29/05/2019       WF        5m        G4         Fair track

Assessment: Normally a bit on pace this rail position. Hard fence not normally the place to be but that’s more on a wet Warwick Farm and it should be a drying track.

Race 1

Overview: Think there is an edge here with Splendid Surprise. He ran an overall time quicker than Rotator last start (and quicker last 600m), sits on pace on a day where that could be an advantage early and he is second up where Rotator is well into her prep. I concede Rotator is the danger but she is too well found like normal. Special Snap next best off a much improved effort with the blinkers on LS.

Advice: Splendid Surprise to win.

Confidence rating: 8/10.

Selections: 1-3-7-9

1.Splendid Surprise ($2.60)- Beaten by a smart one on debut but stuck to his task well. Time was solid. 1200m drier track now. Quicker overall time than Rotator different races same day- 68.52 his time v 68.98 Rotator-. Last 600ms SS-34.8 and Rotator 34.88.

3.Rotator ($3)- Becomign costly for punters- Just missed three back, held up and chased two back and then latest didn’t have a lot of luck but wasn’t winning. Takes on 3yos now.

7.Special Snap ($4.80)- Blinkers went on LS and went forward, kicked and just caught last few strides. 1L slower than the 2YO C+G mdn on day (her race run 4L quicker early).

9.Ruby Tuesday ($27)-Pushed along and no impact first trial when 9th of 10 runners Rosehill. Latest trial won at Hawk showed nice turn of foot but second and third beaten 10L and 9l in mdns since.

Other runners:

8.Arakwal ($41)- back in a trial and didn’t run on in the heavy confitions when 7th of 8. 900m Rhill.

10.Toomai ($162)- Battled on day and slowest of 3x 1200m races on day by 3L and battled.

11.Writing Unexpected ($162)-Two trials just fair. Placed one of 8 needs to lift.

Race 2

Overview: Not much between Excellent Proposal and Satin Socks here. EP’s overall figures last start weren’t great but I like the way he flattened out the last 200m (quickest last 200m of the day) and second start in a race he has natural improvement to come. It was set up for Satin Socks first-up but she is on the up. Is there nay money for Nombuso? I thought the trial was better than the odds in early markets suggest?

Advice: Not much between 2 and 9. Any money for 7?

Confidence rating: 5/10.

Selections: 9-3-7-8

9.Satin Socks ($3.30)- Set up for her to run on first-up but she did it well. Winkers again. 2nd and 3rd both won since. 1200m.

3.Shielded ($5)- Runner up past couple of starts. Form around him just fair and time not outstanding last start.

7.Nombuso ($16)- Lugging bit first time. Sat outside lead in trial and won it pushed out. 1st 900m Rhill trial.Solid time.

8.Royal Marine ($10)- Stuck on OK om debut although Rotator should have beaten him home (held up etc). Will drying track help? Needs to lift.

Other runners:

1.Elusive Eagle ($13)- Got the job done Coonamble last start. 3L slower 3YO+ mdn but all before L600. 2ND AND 4TH beaten in Dubbo mdns since,

4.Academy ($12)- Blinkers 1st time- Slow out in trial but ran on solidly 3rd WF 800m. Barrier mannders concern me?

6.Kimpembe ($40)- Put the back in recent trial and no impact 9th/9 740m. Not asked for a great deal. Betting?

10.L’Cosmo ($10)-Hasn’t gone on with it this prep. 2nd to Turnstyle last time out and Satin Socks beat her the start prior.

11.Glamour Fox ($20)- Won at Gosford two back in avg figures and then not far off at Moruya last time oit. Not sure that’s the right form.

 

Race 3

Overview: Tricky race. Watchdog should get a good run closer to the speed but has had a few chances. He’s A Given was good for us last week but that was on a proper wet track which he loves. Weekend Affair has had no luck of late but is becoming costly. Tricky.

Advice: Not much between 2, 7 and 8.

Confidence: 4/10.

Selections: 8-2-7-6

8.He’s A Given ($5)- QBU- Got his confitions to suit LS but was too good. Not as wet now but runs well again. Tempo against two starts prior.

2.Watchdog ($5)- Knocking on the door. Blinkers off. Got a fair way back LS. Placed mile and beaten 1L only non placing at mile. Gets the gun run here in race with no tempo.

7.Weekend Affair ($6)- No luck two back and then held ip and got home well in a race moderately run. Knocking on the door. Gets to outside.

6.Nacho Libre ($11)- No match for Cinquedea LS but beat the rest and that horse placed since at Rhill Sat grade.

Other runners:

1.Clevanicc ($11) Got back but closed off well first-up from the back. Back from Sat grade to Wed grade. Race set up to run on. The knock is loves a wet track and won’t be so wet now. Capable though.

3.Screamarr ($14)- Just knocked up a bit late LS but was 2 months between runs. Will be better for it. Hasn’t won for a while. Gets a good claim.

4.High Mist ($20)- Just fair last three starts but might appreciate firmer track. Doesn’t win out of turn.

5.Hoof Hustler ($273)- First up in more than a year. Blinkers 1st time. Likely to need this. Two trials coming in.

9.Kelvinside ($22)- like the way he found the line fresh QL200 of race. Now 1200 to 1600 more than a month between runs?

10.Artistic Beauty ($14)- Bit keen when outside lead and stuck on latest. Prior got back and closed off solidly enough.

 

Race 4

Overview: Front Sight looks hard to beat here. The form out of his last win is good and while the overall figures weren’t great he just has all the upside here. The 60kg isn’t too bad either considering most of his main rivals will only carry a max of 2-3kg less. Looks the one to me.

Advice: Front Sight to win.

Selections: 1-4-8-9

1.Front Sight ($2.10)- Chased home a nice horse fresh (who has won again since) and then bolted In mdn. 6L slower other 1350 race on day but compl different race shapes. 3rd and 4th won since. Progressing

4.Lucand Lad ($11)-- Zipped nome in good figures LS- 2nd QL200 of the day. Ear Muffs (Pre-Race Only) OFF FIRST TIME, Tongue Tie FIRST TIME. 1st crack 1400m.

8.Debate ($11)- Barrier blanket 1st time.  Overcame a slow tempo to score LS and now out to 1400m. Failed as fav few times last prep.

9.Nuke ($12)- Good from the back last two. Right part of track two back and had his chance LS all the same. Just gets back a long way.

Against:

7.Achondrite ($17)- Seems very short at $6 in early markets. Won a mdn last time out. 3L slowet other 1600m race on day. Back to 1400m here a ??.

Other runners:

2.Quick Finance ($23)- Didn’t see out mile LS, held up and sound two back (but entitled to run on). Won a weak Cl1 three back. Not hopeless.

5.Notabadidea ($275)- Well held first-up. Extra trip should help but needs to improive.

6.Wimlah ($14)- beaten by a nice horse first-up but stuck on solidly. Two trials- has won second up in past,

11.Rexx ($23)- Wide and working early as well as overracing last start and told late. Can overdo it,

12.PowER Of Wexford ($46)- Got back and closed off without threatening at her past two starts. Can sit closer from the draw. 1800 back to 1400 22 days between runs.

13.Mornay ($34)- Lightly raced. Good win LS. Time was .8s quivker than other 1310m race on day. 4 subs st 2 pl. Draws awkwardly?

Race 5

Overview: Competitive staying race. Kaapfever turned his form back around last start and is a deserved favourite. He was disappointing two back but his run three starts back was a complete forgive (checked and on inferior ground). Bedivere was wide no cover last start and the jockey conceded he should have been more positive early after jumping well. He had no luck prior at Canterbury. Snippetspeed beat Bedivere last start but the ride won the race and the 2kg swing leans me to Bedivere slightly ahead of that horse.

Advice:  Not much between 1-13.

Confidence: 5/10.

Selections: 1-13-4-2

1.Kaapfever ($5)- No luck three back when on worst ground, just fair two back and bounced back to best LS. Likes WF, sting out helps, back to 2200m. Up in weight but down in grade.

13.Bedivere ($5.50)- WNC where jockey conceded he should have been more positive early. 2kg swing on Snippetspeed. No luck two back when on best part of track though. Gets another chance.

4.Snippetspeed ($7)- Good win last start after great ride from the gate. Figures out of race just fair. Bedivere gets a 2kg swing.

2.Makdanife ($8)- Looked the winner and peaked late LS. Now 2200- 3 of 4 wins at 2100m so extra trip should suit. Normally likes it a touch softer though?

Other runners:

3.Keep Up ($38)- Extra distance suits bit just going OK of late and needs to improve.

5.Terwilliker ($9)- Just missed behind Fanciful Toff two back. Run since then OK at two miles. Now back to 2200m- is it far enough? Wet enough?

6.Elaborate ($14)- Race run hard earlu and slow L600 last start as a result. Can be a touch keen in his races. Reith on Elaborateinstead of Snippetspeed?

7.Latin light ($60)- Too wet for him LS. No match for Elaborate prior but wet again. Most wins top of ground?

8.Perfect Ryhme ($38)- Brokethrough for an overdue win two back, just fair latest. Wide draw?

9.Toulouse ($150)- Blinkers again. Just battling of late.

11.Anarchy ($227)- Sent back to the trials after performance being deemed uncompetitive by stewards firstip. Out back in tickover trial and not asked for much. Hard to have.

12.Leardo ($23)- Stuck on solidly LS when not beaten far. 5th and 7th (Kaapfever) won out of the race since. Not hopeless.

 

 

Race 6

Overview: Nice little race. Handspun is the horse to beat but she has been smashed in early betting and if you like her, wait as you will get much better than $2.90 on race day. Tempo was against her last start and she had a quicker last 600m than Phaistos there. Low draw means she will be closer and Bowman goes on. I think Oneness is the danger. It was too wet for her last start but she was taking ground off Handspun the start prior and gets a 2kg swing in the weights. Think Free has been thereabouts but I thought she was just fair last start. Expecting the other two to beat her home but she is third pick.

Advice: Take the $7 Oneness and wait for the drift on Handspun (it will definitely happen) and can back late at around $4+. Happy to back both.

Selections: 1-7-5-9

1.Oneness ($4.50)- Too wet LS and went too hard, run prior not best ground. 3 back Ql200 of the day Better track suits. Should be up there.

7.Handspun ($3)- Going better than it looks on paper.Won three back here 1300, then back to 1200 against but 3rd QL200 of day. QL600 of race LS quicker than Phaistos wanted to hang in late.Drier helps. 2kg extra than Oneness v clash two back.

5.Think Free ($4.50)- Good win two back in weak form race and then had chance latest. Firmer track should suit. Handspun mich better late splits LS?

9.Unknown Universe ($10)- Real winner. Beat a horse that just going fairly LS in avg figures. This looks next level but gets a nice run on speed.

Other runners:

2.Appoint Percy ($192)- Would need to lift on fresh run.

4.Randiki ($48)- Got home OK late first up and then too wet LS. Hasn’t won in a long time.

6.Darci’s Affair ($192)- Second up off a long break and wait for improvement.

8.Tycoon Street ($26)- Comes out of a weak race (.7s slower other 1400m race on day)- Prefer others.

10.Show Me The Honey ($16)- Beat a subs city winner LS but got on pace favours and HAG run much better than his. Form prior just fair? Enjoyed step up to 1400 LS though.

11.Stryke Rock ($48)- Out back under riding and beaten long way trial but it was on synthetic? Yet to feature in 4 first-up attempts.

 

Race 7

Overview: Tricky way to finish the day. I though Inanup was over the odds here. He was a good winner at this track two back defeating Star Boy (almost won a Ramornie) and Phaistos. He didn’t handle the wet track last start and that’s why we’re getting $14. I would have loved 1100m but he still looks overs. Lifetime Quest was wide first-up but still looks short enough at around $3. The figures out the race weren’t great and Cosmic Reign still beat him home and is $40 here? Rare Episode, I Am Capitan, Touch Of Mink and Waruna all have claims.

Advice: Small each-way on Inanup at $14.

Confidence: 5/10.

Selections: 2-8-1-3

2.Inanup ($9)-Didn’t handle the wet LS but form prior was good. Won two straight prior. 4 winners out of race two back including Phaistos. BeatStarBoy too who just missed Ramornie. 1200 little niggle?

8.Lifetime Quest ($5)- 4WNC off the track first-up but kept coming. L600 was slow though and overall time about .7s slower than other 1200m race which was a maiden on day. Gets 1.5kg swing on Cosmic Reign but draws the car park.

1.Rare Episode ($7.50)- Just didn’t handle the wet trackLS but win prior was strong in good fogures. Almost month between runs, 1200m and company up front the knocks? Drying track helps.

3.Cosmic Reign ($18)- Won off a freshen- Held off L Quest who sat wide and gets a 1.5kg swing, Has company up front now.

Other runners:

4.I Am Capitan ($8)- Concussion Plates 1st time- Looked home first-up rolled back to fence and just had enough late. Scr from 1000m Hway since. Almost month between runs. Drifts back a bit and finds the line?

5.Touch Of Mink ($9)- Tw0 trials off a long break. Soft trials- Bit keen in first of those. Won off a freshen 1400m last prep. Sure to be getting home- Just a long break?

6.Worldly Pleasure ($18)- 2/2 this prep- [Pretty soft time on speed LS and this race looks to have more depth. 2nd/3rd/4th all well beaten since.

9.Waruna ($11)- Resuming- Form was up and down last prep but had a tendency of missing the jump. Thereabouts if she jumps. Tickover trial since LS. 56 dlr.

10.Handfast ($18)- Led and had chance LS. Looked like went very quick but didn’t. Hasn’t won for a long time.

11.Dame Kiri ($53)- Just struggled her past couple but drier track should help. Sure Knee form last prep reads OK. Needs to lift.

12.Tycoon Mar ($213)- Hard to have on recent efforts.



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm July 17

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