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Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm August 14

 Aug 13 2019

*** No prices this week- My computer didn’t save them for some reason! Apologies, punters

Warwick Farm

Best value

Race 2 no.7 Way Back When $14 and $3.40

I concede the well supported Achondrite is hard to beat here but I’m happy to speck Way Back When here 1 x 4 (4 times the place). Yes, he is eligible for easier but I loved the way he closed off on debut (quickest last 200m of the day) and the step up to the mile is a big plus. I’m probably going off a run early but I would be shocked if he isn’t one of the strongest late with a view of getting to 1800-2000m next start. His mum was an Oaks winner and he looks a stayer. Confident he will place.

 

Worth a throw at the stumps

Race 7 no.8 Onthetake $51 and $12

She is not the horse to beat by any means but I’m having a throw at the stumps here with Onthetake at $51 and $12 the place. Her last two fresh runs have been pretty good. She finished third to Osorno first-up over 1200m here two preps back when she was held up and should have won the race. Last prep first-up she ran into dead ends over 1100m around the tight turning Gosford track. She has had a stable change and I spoke to Doug Gorrel today and he said she found the line nicely in a Canberra jump out recently and he gives her a good chance at odds. I would have loved 1200m but she can run on late.

 

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy (90 units) deductions apply! Prices as of Tuesday night

Race 1 no.7 Luvoir 10 unit win tote

Race 2 no.7 Way Back When 7 unit win at $14 and 28 unit place at $3.40 (3 place divs deductions apply)

Race 5 no.1 Bennelong Dancer 10 unit win at $4

Race 7 no.8 Onthetake 3 unit win at $51 and 7 unit place at $12

Race 7 no.9 Ballistica 10 unit win at $5

5 unit multi ($14.99)- Race 1 no.7 Luvoir to place ($2.10) into Race 2 no.7 Way Back When a place ($3.40) into Race 7 no.9 Ballistica to place ($2.10)

10 unit main quaddie (starts r4, 25%): 1st leg: 3,9,6,1. 2nd leg: 1. 3rd leg: 15,1,7,5,12. 4th leg: 8,9.

Results: -215.1 units, (-7%POT, 3027 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (2.35 units)

Race 1 no.7 Luvoir 0.25 unit win tote

Race 2 no.7 Way Back When 0.25 unit win at $14 and 1 unit place at $3.40 (3 place divs deductions apply)

Race 5 no.1 Bennelong Dancer 0.25 unit win at $4

Race 7 no.8 Onthetake 0.1 unit win at $51 and 0.25 unit place at $12

Race 7 no.9 Ballistica 0.25 unit win at $5

Results: +2.7 unit profit, (2.9%POT, 90.6 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Expected drifters:

Race 3 no.3 Waka $3.50

Chance but up in weight here, wide gate and there are several hopes. She also goes up considerably in weight. Should get out to $4.

Race 4 no.6 Lifetime Quest $2

Definite chance but seems well found in early markets. Expect him to drift. 

 

Rail out 3m, good track.

Track bias                                                   

3/10/2018         WF        3M        G4         Touch on pace early but prob 1-2 off best- got wider later in day and fence no good then                           

28/11/2019       WF        3M        h8-9      Maybe a touch on pace but didn't play right out wide 2-5 off prob best part but norm wider when wet. Inside slightly inferior                                          

16/01/2019       WF        3m        G4         Pretty fiar track. No disadv be on pace. Rail maybe 1/2 length to one length off. Most winners off fence but last winner fence                                             

13/02/2019       WF        3M        g4          Just hard to make ground here. No winner further back than 4th. No real lanes.                                             
27/03/2019       WF        3M        h8         Middle of track here and not easy to make ground as rule.

15/05/2019       WF        3M        g4          Fair track

10/07/2019       WF        3M        h9         Getting wider as day went on. Fence OK first couple then getting off and wider as day goes                                            

Assessment: Maybe a touch on pace but pretty fair rail position on a good track at Warwick Farm.

Race 1

Overview: Happy to have a small play on Luvoir here at the each-way odds. He really hit the line well on debut on a day where it was hard to make ground and his overall time was 3-4 lengths quicker than Living Rocks’ on the day. He can be a bit closer here. Hulk has been gelded and has strong form lines last prep (second to a subsequent Sat city winner first-up), whole Contango has trialled up really well and has to be respected. Living Rocks also has claims (strong last 200m first-up despite her overall figure being just fair).

Advice: Something small each-way on Luvoir.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Speed looks even. Contango looks the leader, while I expect Fast Melody to be ridden aggressively to land on speed (does he have the necessary speed is the question).  

Likely market trend: Hard to tell how good this Contango is and we will learn more late in betting. That will influence the market.

Selections:  7-1-3-6

7.Luvoir- Jumped well went back and closed off strongly debut. Can settle closer now. Mum won 1400m, placed at mile. Overall time was 3-4L quiker than Living Rocks on same day off similar tempo.

1.Hulk- Gelded. Hit line well recent trial. 2nd to a subs Sat winner first up last prep in quicker time than Benchmark race on day. Then too wet/ too hard before a break. Sits in first few. Right there.

3.Contango- First trial drifted back closed off well little pressure. Led second trial when second to Lucky Imperator but under much less pressre and could have won trial. Tieme OK. Keen both trials the ?

6.Lewis- Very well bred. ½ or ¾ to More Joyous-Two trials- No pressure first and went around out back, under some pressure in second one and closed off OK? No trial since mid June? Setback? Betting?

Other runners:

2.Apithanos- Hit line well first trial Slowest heat morning (onbly 3 x 1050) then pushed along no real impact second trial in slow time (L600 36s slow).

4.Fast Melody- Hasn’t shown the customary speed of Waterhouse runners at trials. Closer tospeed latest with blinkers on and they go on race day. Slow out and mustered latest trial, pushed along late and faded.

5.Finney- Drifted back, pushed along, no real impact in two trials.

8.Reformist- Third in only trial thus time in. Pushed along a touch. No match for Contango.

10.Todwick- Just off the placings two trials/. Latest run in slick time behind Evening Slippers. Prefer others?

11.Our Bellagio Miss- Comes through a fair race fresh. Prefer others.

12.Stick Em Up- Pushed along and finished off OK in two trials. Well beaten only run. First run dru track. Two trials wet.

13.What’s The Deel- Hard to have on debut effort.

 

Race 2

Overview: I concede the well supported Achondrite is hard to beat here but I’m happy to have a throw at the stumps with Way Back When. Yes, he is eligible for easier but I loved the way he closed off on debut (quickest last 200m of the day) and the step up to the mile is a big plus. I’m probably going off a run early but I would be shocked if he isn’t one of the strongest late with a view of getting to 1800-2000m next start. His mum was an Oaks winner and he looks a stayer. Achondrite is the horse to beat, while Almeheri has had a mile written all over her all prep.

Advice: Way Back When each-way.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Speed looks moderate. Front Sight, Almeheri and Achondrite should be prominent. Hopefully, Way Back When can be midfield up in trip.

Likely market trend: Achondrite and Front Sight should start the two favourites. Hopefully Way Back When is specked at odds.

Selections: 7-2-3-8

7.Way Back When-Thought the debut was good. Jumped OK got bac slow run race and clocked 11.44 QL200 of day. Mum was an Oaks winner. Runs well!

2.Achondrite- Nice return from back forst-up when not far off FS. Meets that horse 1.5kg worse off. Should appreciate mile now. Second racing prep.

3.Almeheri- Third up mile suits but just OLK last start against the girls. Back in grade but against the boys. Blanket finish LS. Figures OK (1L slower Nichochet race).

8.El Gerrouj- Good from the back forst-up off really slow tempo. Overall igures of race just fair but closed off well. 1st and 3rd first starters. Out Of O’Reilly mare.

Other runners:

4.Shaman- Slow out, ran on OK either side of a check in straight fresh. Better for that. Further stll? Only win 2100m.

6.Le Lude- Just fait last cpouple needs to lift.

9.Oribella- Got home well fresh but time 8L slower ENature comes through but tempo related. Second horse won in city but great ride.

 

Race 3

Overview: Touch race! I think Waka is too short at $3.50 considering the depth here, the favt she goes up significantly in weight and has drawn a gate to give them a decent start. Makdanife prefers a wet track but he should have won at this track and distance two back. High Power is teasing but has claims, Keep Up was good off a slow tempo last start, while Anarchy, Hirokin (blinkers back on), Castel Sant’angelo, De Valera and emergency Shangani Patrol are all hopes too.

Advice: Very open race. Plenty of chances!

Confidence: 2/10.

Speed map: Speed should be genuine. Castel Sant’Angelo should lead with emergency Shangani Patrol up there if he gets a run. Hirokin is handy with the blinkers back on.

Likely market trend: I reckon the favourite, Waka will get out closer to $4. Some of these are going to start big odds.

Selections: 6-5-3-1

6.Makdanife- Should have won two back this t/d similar field and then got back, strong run 2400m and was OK Rwick. Back to 2200m a plus. Prefers wet but right in this. Meets KU 1kg better from two back.

5.Keep Up- Best late splits of race LS (better than Waka) and they just didn’t go hard enough. Two good runs in a row now. 3.5kg swing on Waka. Closes off.

3.Waka- Progressive staying mare. Got the job done despite overracing LS. Figures OK, now up in weight and gets back gate? SP 3kg swing. 5 subs st 2 pl.

1.High Power- Been getting home OK of late. Beat Makdanife home LS. 1.5kg swing Makdanife.

Other chances:

7.Hirokin- WNC two back and then strange run latest where off the bit and going backwards onnturn and then surged late again. Took the blinkers off there, back on here. Not hopeless.

8.Castel Sant’agelo- Too good in mdn grade defeating a subs winner there and then beaten by a subs Wed city winner latest where fought back to grab second. Went hard LS and should stay. Shook off Shangani Patrol LS.

9.Anarchy- Really good ferom back two back and then raced in restricted room last start innstraight. Warmed up when saw clear air late. Caan’t say no here,

4.Ivy’s Court- Had a few excuses this prep but looked the winner on turn LS and then didn’t finish off at all.

2.Jakes Hill= Pulled up lame LS forgive. Had been knocking on door prior. Wants it wet?

Other runners:

10.Mushroom Rock- Caught the eye late LS but well beaten by Castels’angelo start prior.

11.Notabadharada- Held up late LS but wasn’t featuring. Form prior just fair.

12.Fluidity- Been a bit disapp this prep. Two wins at 2100m so extra trip suits but needs to lift.

 

Race 4

Overview: Interesting race. I don’t want to dive into the $2 about Lifetime Quest because as much as he was good in Saturday grade last start, I reckon the result flattered him. They walked and he had every possible for mine, ditto two back in midweek grade. A great chance but I have to be against at the price. I thought Perfect Pitch was pretty good last start when the blinkers went on. She just had to get back from the gate but was strong late. There is a bit more depth here. I’m keen to see what the market does with Obelos. He was huge when wide without cover off a very strong speed before a break. Cuba just knocked up late fresh and will be better second up, while King Hewitt and Lancaster Bomber are both chances.

Advice: Tough race! Against the favourite Lifetime Quest just simply because of the price ($2).

Confidence: 3/10.

Speed map: Tempo looks moderate. Cuba and Lifetime Quest are prominent with Perfect Pitch potentially kicking up.

Likely market trend: Lifetime Quest will start favourite but I wouldn’t be surprised if he drifts a bit. Obelos is the interesting one. I could entertain him if there is some market support.

Selections: 3-9-6-1

3.Obelos- Too wet first-up when backed Hawkes, then WNC off very strong speed and just caught line. Resuming0 One trial, pleasing closed off. Can be a touch keen at times.

9.Perfect Pitch- Jumped well went back to get in, ran on and just missed off freshen with blinkers on. Can box seat here. Time 1L slower LB and Cuba but Last 200m was strong. Can she reproduce now not as fresh?

6.Lifetime Quest- Given a peach last two starts= no match winner two back and soft lead latest. Gets in well, woth Bowman on. 1400m now. Runner up 1350m last prep only run dist range.

1.Cuba- Just knocked up late first up but run was good. Foiught on. Mixed wecond up record. Handy and runs well.

Other chances:

4.King Hewitt- Not far away only run last prep. Two trials pleasing hit line well latest.Winner won Sat grade and second horse won twice afyer that.

8.Lancaster Bomber- Just knocked up late LS as looked home. Horse that can be a bit keen, aided by fact they ran along last start. Do they here? Chance but needs to relax.

Other runners:

2.Amanito- Found the line well enough fresh in race that was always going to be too sharp. Better for that/ One more perhaps?

5.Silent General- Hard to recommend.

7.Lincoln Sky- Two trials have been poor. Beaten a long way both.

10.He’s A Given- Bit disapp LS but too firm for him against likes of LB and Cuba. Prefers it wet.

 

Race 5

Overview: Leaning to Bennelong Dancer here and she is a nice mare resuming. Her first-up record is strong and I liked the way she finished off in a recent trial. Juventus has had two soft trials leading in and his form around You Make Me Smile and Archedemus last prep reads well for this. Herzegovina has won three from three this prep although her figures and the form around her hasn’t been great.

Advice: Leaning to Bennelong Dancer.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Tempo looks solid with Leningrad the likely leader. Bel Diablo is up there and Go The Gantry should be much closer.

Selections: 1-3-5-10

1.Bennelong Dancer0 Has her fair share of weight but nice mare. First up record is strong. Bolted in fresh last prep in strong figures. Then 3rd to Noble Boy CC. Trial was strong. Claim helps. FUP win last prep was 1400m.

3.Juventus- Two soft trials- Chased home TMMS last prep and then second to Archedemus. Good form for this. Has won first-up in country but not renowned fresh?

5.Herzegovina- 3/3 this prep and clearly going well. Fogures and form around her not realluy backing it up though? Slower overall than the MDN race LS?

10.Riviera- Very disapp LS. Blinkers on, winkers off, back in trip. Comes through fair Bel Diablo race prior. Meets that horse 4kg better though for .7L margin.

Other chances:

8.Tenorino- Racing consistently prov grade last couple. This is tougher but can run a race at e/w odds. Pretty consistent of alte. Forward or back from gate>?

Other runners:

2.Leningrad- 3 trials- Blinkers off, gelded, tongue tie first time. Pushed along first two trials ok, closed off third well enough. First up since April last year. Didn’t beat much first prep.

4.Star Crossed- Got back and closed off OK LS. Never in it prior. Fresh run soud. Failed only run 1200m but led that day.

6.Bel Diablo- led and kept going to score LS on a real on pace day. Up in weight and this has more depth. 5 subs st 2 pl.

7.Showminder- Soft trial coming in. Has won fresh in country in past. Ok fresh last time when beaten few lengths by Kylease. Could sneak a place with luck.

 

Race 6

Overview: High Low Bet is a horse that could get out to silly odds. I think she prefers wet ground but she comes out of a race that has produced three subsequent Saturday city winners. We could get $10 plus here. I wanted to find something to beat Knowitall Jack because I think he has been well placed to date. He was pretty good when fighting them off on a leader biased track last start though and he only runs well again. Da Power was good with the big weight last start, this is harder but he has each-way claims. 

Advice: High Low Bet could get out to a silly price?

Confidence: 4/10.

Speed map: Tempo looks even. Knowitall Jack should lead with Da Power and Song And A Prayer handy.

Likely market trend: Pretty open here and no firm view on which was the market trends.

Selections: 15-1-7-5

15.High Low Bet: Closed off well LS in race that has prod 3 subs sat city winners. 7 starts 1 pl dry and gets back the two knocks.

1.Knowitall Jack- Led and kept going to score latest. Looked like going quik but they weren’t. Identical time to other benchmark race day but that was went 5.5L slower to 600, Up 4kg. 7 subs st out of rae 5 pl.

7.Da Power- Really consistent prep. Far too good with 62.5kg and drops in weight here. This is harder but he is going well. Figures/form around him jiust ok.

5.The Cartoonist- Just fair but turned form around last start when slow out and ridden quieter. Second horse finished second in town since.

Other chances:

10.The Bald Eagle- Disapp two back and overcame slow tempo to score latest. Didn’t beat much there and time similar to mdn on day?

12.Song And A Prayer- Led and just caught late LS. Solid winner prior to that in weak form race (10 subs st 2 pl).

Other runners:

2.Devil’s Lair- Got back and closed off OK LS but been a bit disapp since winning here first-up. Should have finished closer Cant three back but still.

3.Equipped- Got back and never featured fresh. Second up record just fair. Wait for further,

8.Seel The Deal- Good from the back when winning Mdn, Cl1 then off bit chasing fair way from home in strong run race latest. No excuses tere. Meets DL 3.5kg worse off for being beaten home by that horse LS. Better than LS?

9.Mrs Madrid- Couldn’t keep up in a recent trial.2 x wins 2000m and beyond.

14.Lady Of Kos- Tempo against but beaten a long way fresh in a weak race.

 

Race 7

Overview: She is not the horse to beat by any means but I’m having a throw at the stumps here with Onthetake at $51 and $12 the place. Her last two fresh runs have been pretty good. She finished third to Osorno first-up over 1200m here two preps back when she was held up and should have won the race. Last prep first-up she ran into dead ends over 1100m around the tight turning Gosford track. She has had a stable change and I spoke to Doug Gorrel today and he said she found the line nicely in a Canberra jump out recently and he gives her a good chance at odds. I would have loved 1200m but she can run on late. Ballistica looks to have come back well from the look of her trials and she can finish strongly over the top of these. Making Whoppee looks a very classy filly and it will be no surprise if she goes back to back to open her account. The figures out of her debut win were sound. Intrepadacious brokethrough last start and can go on, while Spanish Dream just needs luck from the wide draw to figure.

Advice: Specking Onthetake each-way at $51. Could play Ballistica at $5 as well.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Strong speed expected with Magnavale, Making Whoppee, potentially Spanish Dream and Décor rolling forward.

Likely market trend: Expect Ballistica to start shorter than $5. Onthetake will probably drift late but I think that will be more due to the small stable and most feeling it will need further (it well may too!).

Selections: 8-9-6-1

8.Onthetake- Fresh runs really good. 2 preps back ran into trouble but flashed late to just go down when close third to Osorno. FUP last prep no luck Gosford in race run to suit. Can flash late here at good odds if can stay in touch.

9.Ballistica- Got back and closed off in two trials in good fashion. Solid form last time in and looks to have improved. Should close off well.

6.Intrepidacous- Getting back running on and then WNC on speed LS (one turn) and too good to score in strong figures. May go on now. Beat a horse who has only won a maiden but has shown talent all the same.

1.Spanish Dream- Good trial win coming in. Led and won under own steam. Drawn wide speed inside first-up off long break. Do they go back or just roll forward out wide (only one turn?). Fresh record is sound.

Other chances:

5.Transmitter- Had her chance last two runs. Thereabouts though and this looks easier. Back to 1100m.  Horses that have beaten her home last two progressive enough,

4.Magnavale- Won three of past 4 starts and 4 of 6 overall.  Had chance Melb two back, bounced back LS although just 1L quicker than 1000m mdn (2L quicker other mdn). 5 winners out of race 3 back.

15.Our Revenue- Far from disgraced with 63.5kg first-up on synthetic. Just missed this t/d last prep. I can’t say no in this field.

Other runners:

3.Décor- Two very soft trials where a bit keen in run. Mixed form last prep. Speed inside, tactics? Market?

11.Dunbrody Power- Won a weak maiden (6st 1 pl) and then seemed to have her chance behind Intrepedacious LS. Gets a 1.5kg swing on that horse here.



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm August 14

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