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Brad Davidson preview Randwick August 24

 Aug 22 2019

Randwick

Best

Race 8 no.4 Mizzy

Best place

Race 4 no.11 Curata Princess

 

Normal strategy (70 units)

Race 1 no.8 Lady Demi 5 unit win at $8

Race 3 no.2 Lucicello 5 unit win at $5

Race 4 no.11 Curata Princess 10 unit place tote

Race 8 no.4 Mizzy 20 unit win at $4.40

5 unit quaddie (starts r6, 12.5%): 1st leg: 7,12, 2nd leg: 2,8,10,1,4. 3rd leg: 4,2. 4th leg: 7,11

5 unit Multi ($11.24)- Race 1 no.7 Gem Dealer to place ($2,40) into Race 5 no,3 Libertini to win ($1.70) into Race 8 no.4 Mizzy to place ($1.90) into Newcastle race 5 no,3 Amitto to place ($1.45).

Newcastle

Race 5 no.3 Amitto 20 unit win at $3.20

Results: -90.4 units, -2.7%POT, 3391 unit outlay)

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Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy

Randwick (1.8 units)

Race 1 no.8 Lady Demi 0.25 unit win at $8

Race 3 no.2 Lucicello 0.25 unit win at $5

Race 4 no.11 Curata Princess 0.3 unit place tote

Race 8 no.4 Mizzy 0.5 unit win at $4.40

Newcastle

Race 5 no.3 Amitto 0.5 unit win at $3.20

Overall: +6.6 unit profit, (6.5%POT, 101.5 units outlayed)

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Think! About your choices.

 

Rail 4m, good track expected

History:

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9

13/01/2018       Rand     4            g3          Track played really well- wind suited those with cover from horse inside for all bar 1200m races where you wanted to have horses outside                    

8/06/2019         Randwick           3m        H8              Pretty fair track/. Definitely could run on. fence was OK but maybe sl inferior        

13/04/2019       Rand     3M        G4 (but soft)              Swooping off fence here, wider the better really

3/08/2019         Rwick    True      H8         Very fair track    

Assessment: 4m only used once last few years according to my stats and played really well. Included last two 3m rails as well as last meeting here with True rail. Can make ground.

Wind: Gentle winds expected.

 

Expected drifters:

Race 1 no.6 Galaxy Force $5 (have him marked double that?)

Race 3 no.5 Superium $5.50 (chance but seems well found)

Race 6 no.6 Cascadian $5 (kept safe but probably drifts unless flying at home)

Race 7 no.1 Avilius (star over further but $3.40 over 1400m? If you like him, you’ll get better)

 

Race 1

Overview: I thought the $8 about Lady Demi seemed ok. I know she is dropping back to the 1100m here but she has the best form lines around Irish Songs and her last two runs in stronger Highways have been really good. I like the way Bellarina Magic has turned the corner her past two runs and she comes through a pretty good rating race last start. Gem Dealer looks the other winning hope and I like the way she has trialled up leading into this. She has form around the likes of Costello last prep and it’s just whether the 1100m is too sharp (she did win first-up over 1200m last prep). Denmiss isn’t the worst place chance here at big odds.

Advice: Not much between Lady Demi, Bellarina Magic and Gem Dealer they look the three. Leaning to LD due to the $8 on offer. Could speck Denmiss the place.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Strong tempo expected as usual in this Highway with Outta Reach, Eleazer, Jumper Leads, So Magnifique, Galaxy Force and emergency Hard Merchandise up there.

Likely market trend: Hard to gauge this one.

Selections: 8-13-7-9

8. Lady Demi ($6.50)- I know she is dropping back to the 1100m here but she has the best form lines around Irish Songs and her last two runs in stronger Highways have been really good.

13. Bellarina Magic ($5)- She has turned the corner her past two runs and she comes through a pretty good rating race last start. Winning time 9L quicker than Mdn last start. Finds McEvoy!

7. Gem Dealer ($6)- looks the other winning hope and I like the way she has trialled up leading into this. She has form around the likes of Costello last prep and it’s just whether the 1100m is too sharp (she did win first-up over 1200m last prep).

9.Denmiss ($45)- Can close off here if they overdo it up front. Rough place chance.

Other runners:

1. Jumper Leads ($34), 2. Rioli ($17), 3. So Magnifique ($17), 5. Eleazar ($23), 6. Galaxy Force ($11), 10. Charlotte’s Heart ($54), 11. Philadora ($45), 12. Revitup Rednut ($27), 14. Outta Reach ($27), 15. Drake The Truth ($33), 16. Hard Merchandise ($17)- Rest will be priced if make field: 17. Sestina, 18. Texas Target, 19. Glamour Cruise, 20. Alchera.

 

Race 2

Overview: Tricky race this as the early market suggests and it’s hard to really be confident. Missybeel drops back from the 2000m but she just might jump to the front here with Tim Clark aboard (great rider on leaders) and she might just be hard to run down. This looms as a bit of a D-Day for Adana. He had no luck first-up but I’m not sure he was going that well anyway? He gets every chance today with no weight on his back. Valentino Rossa was really good last start from the back after being held up in a sit and sprint. The dry track is the key to him (he hasn’t done much in the past at Randwick though).

Advice: Many angles to this one! Toughest race of the day! Any of the five chances mentioned can win.

Confidence: 1/10.

Speed map: Missybeel looks the only leader in the race and tempo looks slow unless something makes a mid race move? Tactical affair.

Likely market trend: Five genuine winning chances. Adana probably starts favourite but they could come for any of the five.

Selections: 1-5-7-3

1. Valentino Rossa ($6)- Hidden run last start. Held up flashed late in good performance in sit and sprint. Late splits good. Good track suits, not best form at Randwick and has to give all of these weight in slowly run race? Nash helps!

5. Missybeel ($5.50)- back from the 2000m but she just might jump to the front here with Tim Clark aboard (great rider on leaders) and she might just be hard to run down. No luck LS and chased home Toryjoy (ran well in Melb since) prior in good figures.

7. Adana ($4.50)- D-Day- Had excuses fresh but was he going that well. Gets chance with no weight on back. Is he overrated? Probably but we find out for sure today.

3. Cyber Intervention ($5): Too bad to be true LS. Much better than that. Query is back to mile in what could be slow run race? Chance.

Other chance:

2. Travancore ($6)- Last start win probably looked better to eye than what it was but still going well this prep. Runs well again.

Other runners:

4. Great Glen ($43), 6. Plaisir ($86), 8. The Promise ($43).

 

 

 

Race 3

Overview: I thought this was a race in two between True Detective and Lucicello. You could almost back them both but either way I think Lucicello is the value. She was good when back in trip last start and she probably just got a touch too far back. True Detective blew the start last time out and that cost him victory against the older horses. The temp was against him that day as well and the third horse, Lifetime Quest has won since. I thought Pandano could run a race at odds. His debut win was dominant and he probably just had enough in his last start before a break. He has trialled up well for this. Deference next best.

Advice: Lucicello at the odds over True Detective. They look the two.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Speed should be solid with Edison and Deference likely to roll along.

Likely market trend: Expect True Detective and Lucicello to start clear fav and second fav. Superium should drift?

Selections: 2-3-7-10

2.Lucicello ($4.70)- 1200 back to 1100 and just got a bit too far back last start when rocketing home from back. Posted the quickest last 600m of the day and is settling well enough now to get 1300m.

3.True Detective ($2.90)- Good thing beaten after missing the jump and tempo against him last start against the older horses. All form on wet but should handle dry. The horse to beat.

7.Deference ($13)- Didn’t beat much but burnt the candle both ends LS. Same time as benchmark race on day despote going much slower to 600m. Might have turned the corner?

10.Pandano ($44)- Thought he was goo on debut and then maybe came juj,,ihn nh n  g bgnh nh  to end of it before a break. Two trials have been pleasing albeit prov/country grade.

Other runners:

1.Athiri ($14), 4. Mandela ($13), 5. Superium ($11), 6. Avon River ($32),8. Edison ($44), 9. Famous ($19).

 

Race 4

Overview: Hard to go past Our Candidate and he looks the horse to beat off his dominant win last time out. He defeated subsequent Brisbane winner Ilwendo by a big space there and still looks on the up. The one that interests me for a place is Curata Princess. She might not be fit enough third up but she won at this track and distance last prep defeating Gayatri and can run on late here. I thought she did enough last start on an unsuitable wet track. Waka is a progressive stayer who should relish the 2400m. I think the ear muffs will help her relax as well. Gayatri had no luck last start and can improve as well.

Advice: Our Candidate hard to beat but short enough. Maybe something small on Curata Princess to place on tote (drifts late I reckon).

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Scholarly leads and should roll at an even clip.

Likely market trend: Expect Our Candidate to start a firm favourite.

Selections: 5-10-11-8

5.Our Candidate ($2.10)- Dominant last time out and defeated a subsequent Brisbane winner there. I don’t think he was on the best part of the track either. Looks hard to beat again.

10.Waka ($9)- Progressive staying mare. Ear muffs should help her relax. Should relish 2400m and big track.

11.Curata Princess($18)- Did enough second up over 1800m on an unsuitable wet track. Won this t/d last prep defeating Gayatri. Could sneak a place here if fit enough third-up?

8.Gayatri ($10)- No luck last start and that was first run for a while on firmer deck. 2400m suits now.

Other chances:

3.Not A Single Cent ($12)- Disapp last start but form prior would give him a chance here. Form around him not great?

2. Scholarly ($11)- Building fitness wise. Better last time out. May just run a race if left alone in front.

Other runners:

1.Attention Run ($11), 4. Desert Path ($26), 7. Kellstorm ($77), 13. Yuralla Boy ($38), 14. Notabadharada ($311).

Race 5

Overview: Hard to go past Libertini but at the same time, I don’t think there is any value in the price of $1.75. She took all before her in her first prep with the only blot on her copy book a second to Bivouac on debut. She has trialled up very well (albeit in slow heats) and should park behind the speed and be strong at the finish. If there is a danger, I reckon it’s Tenley. Her trials have just been fair but she hasn’t had the blinkers on there and they go on race day. Flit was enormous when a close second to Anaheed during The Championships (clocked the fourth quickest last 200m of the day). I would have liked to have seen more from her recent trial though. Catwalk is in the same boat (would have liked to have seen more in her recent trial) and she probably prefers it wet but her late splits were on par with Deprive at her win before a break.

Advice: Can’t go past Libertini but she is at her right price.

Confidence: 8/10.

Speed map: Speed looks solid here with Villami and Mistress Mouse right there with Pretty Brazen (blinkers on) kicking up.

Likely market trend: Libertini starts favourite but how short is the question. Anywhere $1.85+ and that will tempt me.

Selections: 3-1-2-5

3.Libertini ($1.65)- Two trials have been super (albeit slow time) and she took all before her last prep with the only blot on her copy book a second to Bivouac on debut. Her win at Scone was quicker than the older horses and her last 200m was very strong Randwick prior to that. Hasn’t beaten much the knock if I can find one.

1.Tenley ($6.50)- Just didn’t like wet tracks towards end of last prep. Figures were good prior. Late splits 1L superior to Yes Yes Yes in Riesling v Todman same day prior to Slipper. Trials fair but without blinkers and they go on race day.

2.Flit ($8)- Would have liked to have seen more in reent trial. Good from backv Anaheed when best part of track before a break. Real eye catcher and 4th quickest last 200m of day. Query is she has been well spruiked for a while now.Horse she dead heated with at Flem last prep ran 4th in Sale Mdn only other run?

 5. Let It Pour ($18)-

Other runners:

, 4. Villami ($36),8. Pretty Brazen ($46), 9. Steel Diamond ($70),

 

Race 6

Overview: Looks a race in two for mine between Deprive and Trope. I’ll lean the way of Deprive but I concede the $3.20 is short enough. He did go up $4.60 though. He was pretty good in two wins last prep and his fresh win was on inferior ground too. He can reel off a late split. I like the way Trope has trialled leading into this. He showed good ability last prep and could easily go on with it here. What do we do with Cascadian. He closed off very nicely in a recent trial but will probably get back here and is 1200m too short? Baller and Dreamforce looks best of the rest.

Advice: Deprive and Trope the two.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Speed looks solid with Catesby and Mandylion the most prominent.

Likely market trend: Expecting Deprive and Trope to dominate the market here. Cascadian drifts unless he is absolutely flying at home.

Selections: 7-12-6-13

7.Deprive ($3.80)- Two straight last prep clocking good closing splits both times. Comes back here off a soft trial. Key is gets in nice and light. Can only run well again/. Would he prefer 1100m fresh maybe the only knock (along with the price).

12.Trope ($5)- Came a fair way in first prep and loved the way he has closed off at the trials this time in. 1200m gives him his chance.              

6.Cascadian ($8.50)- Brings strong form lines from overseas (placing to Mythical Magic who has form around D’Bai- disappointed in All Aged here).

13.Baller ($10)- Reckon he may have been overrated a touch until this point and he may like the sting out of the track. Gets in light all the same.

Other chances:               

3. Bon Amis ($7.50)- Just reckon he got some favours last start and is better at 1100m around Rosehill.

Other runners:

2. Dothraki ($24), 4. Con Te Partiro ($18), 5. Delectation Girl ($29), 9. Artlee ($72), 10. Mandylion ($36), 11. Catesby ($72).

 

Race 7

Overview: Tough race with most of these returning from a spell. I thought Avilius was under the odds at $3.40? I love the horse but he will drift back here and 1400m is well short of his best. Happy Clapper’s latest trial wasn’t ideal but he just never runs a bad race on race day. Verry Elleegant seems to be relaxing even better now and she will charge at the line late. Again, is 1400m too short? I think Unforgotten is trialling better this prep than previous ones and she can run home well here. Best Of Days has been gelded and could be over the odds off some solid trials.

Advice: Happy Clapper perhaps. Unforgotten could get out to a backable price. Tough race.

Confidence: 2/10.

Speed map: Samadoubt leads on his own but I reckon he rolls them along a bit?

Likely market trend: Avilius has to get out from $3.40 for mine.

Selections: 2-8-10-1

2.Happy Clapper ($4.60)- Rarely runs a bad race. Runner up to Winx t/d first-up last prep Apollo. Latest trial wasn’t super. 

8.Unforgotten ($10)- Seems a bit sharper at the trials this time in. Has run on late first-up in the past. Place chance?

10.Verry Elleegant ($5)- Love the way she is relaxing. Savaged the line over 1400m in Melb first-up last prep and will be doing the same.

1.Avilius ($5)- Won latest trial in slow time. Has performed well first-up in past but that was over a mile. 1400m too short? Just seems too short in a race with a few chances. Can win.

Other chance:

4.Best Of Days ($18)- Gelded, Two soft trials. Always promised plenty. Market? Good run first-up last prep where warming up late.

Other runners:

3. Le Romain ($31), 5. Kings Will Dream ($42), 6. Samadoubt ($31), 7. Invincible Gem ($13), 9. Youngstar ($42).

 

Race 8

Overview: Hard to go past Mizzy here and I just wish I got the price before it firmed. She has been $8.50-$5 and the $8.50 was generous. She can only run well here off a couple of nice trials and her run behind Fiesta and Estijaab fresh last prep reads well for this. She almost won a Surround at Group 1 level last prep as well. Kiamichi has been trialling up well and it will be fascinating to see what the Golden Slipper winner does this prep. Her record suggests she is better on wet ground but how much improvement has she taken from the autumn? It’s a weird thing to say about a Golden Slipper winner but I think she only won the Slipper due to the wet track. Into The Abyss, Notation and Dyslexic on the next line.

Advice: Mizzy has been $8-$4.40. Let’s hope she gets back out a touch as she looks hard to beat.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Strong speed here with Agent Pippa the most likely leader with Goldfinch, Tell Me, Alassio and Meryl all there. Kiamichi and Mizzy shouldn’t be far away.

Likely market trend: Mizzy has been the big firmer, does she get back out a touch? I hope so.

Selections: 4-2-12-8

4.Mizzy ($4)- She can only run well here off a couple of nice trials and her run behind Fiesta and Estijaab fresh last prep reads well for this. She almost won a Surround at Group 1 level last prep as well. Trials have been super. Improved with every prep.

2.Kiamichi ($6.30)- Trials have been pleasing. Won the Slipper on a wet track and from either side on dry nowhere near as good as wet runs. Seems to have come back well though.

12.Into The Abyss ($11)- Trial was OK and did beat Mizzy home in the PJ Bell (Mizzy was 1500 back to 1200m and at the end of the prep though). Then was a good thing beaten in J H B Carr Stakes. Solid against mares at Scone before break.

8.Notation ($11)- I’ve underrated her this prep, that’s all I can say. 1400m back to 1100m off a freshen on a dry track is an ask? Should have won last start, better wet?

Others to consider:

5.Soothing ($17): Too bad to be true first-up? Kept safe by bookies at $7. How is she going? Market?

10.Split Lip ($38)- KJust fair LS but might just be a dry tracker. Run behind Victorem earlier this prep very pleasing!

3.Dyslexic ($12)- Does she just go back here? Trialled well but always does. 1100m a tad sharp?

Other runners: 1. Alassio ($17),  6. Brook Magic ($33), 7. My Xpression ($33), 9. Meryl ($19), 11. Goldfinch ($89), 13. Agent Pippa ($33), 15. Tell Me ($17).

Race 9

Overview: Looks a race in two for mine as the market suggests between Roheryn and Prime Candidate. Prime Candidate looks the leader in the race and he clocked some very impressive figures when scoring last start. His overall time was three lengths quicker than Alizee’s on the same day and his last 600m was stronger as well. He steps out to 1400m for the first time but I see no reason why he won’t run it out. Roheryn was solid first-up on an unsuitable wet track and he might jump out of the ground here back onto a firm deck. He is short enough all the same. Milk Man didn’t have a lot of luck first-up in Australia but the knock with him is he is a bit keen, while Sweet Deal found a weak race last start and now draws wide? Dealmaker will be closing off late.

Advice: Prime Candidate and Roheryn look the two here. Track pattern?

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Prime Candidate leads and should roll along in front at his own speed and be hard to run down. Roheryn should be midfield.

Likely market trend: Roheryn and Prime Candidate should dominate the market.

Selections: 7-11-5-4

7.Prime Candidate ($3.70)- Boxed on well first-up over 1100m and then dominant last start. Went forward, dictated, time 3L quicker than ALizee on day and quicker last 600m. Rolls to front, T Clark rides and should be hard to catch.

11.Roheryn ($2.25)- Good fresh without being wow but he doesn’t like wet ground. 1400m looks a tick and he can only be the strongest late here.

5.Milk Man- Didn’t have a lot of luck in a sit and sprint first-up in Aus. Got going late. Query is he can be quite keen now out to 1400m? Form overseas over further though.

4.Dealmaker ($28)- Soft trial- last two fresh runs good late from back. Could sneak a place here with a bit of luck.

Other runners:

1. Rodrico ($192), 2. Fortensky ($28), 3. Sweet Deal ($15), 5. Milk Man ($15), 8. The Avenger ($16), 9. Dissolute ($192), 13. Carif ($64).



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Randwick August 24

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