Back to Expert Comment

Brad Davidson preview Rosehill Aug 31

 Aug 28 2019

Rosehill August 31

Best value

Race 6 no.10 Wu Gok $6.50

Race 9 no.2 Black Magnum $4.60

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 3 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 3 units). A max 3 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy (65 units)

Race 1 no.8 Vertex 3 unit win $26

Race 2 no.7 Wimlah 15 unit win at $3.20

Race 4 no.17 Mrs Madrid 2 unit win tote

Race 6 no.10 Wu Gok 20 unit win at $6.50

Race 9 no.2 Black Magnum 15 unit win at $4.60

10 unit main quaddie (starts r6, 13.88%): 1st leg: 10,7. 2nd leg: 5,7. 3rd leg: 7,16,3,14,2,5. 4th leg: 2,9,8. 

Results: -121.4 units (-3.3% POT, 3576 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (1.7 units)

Race 1 no.8 Vertex 0.1 unit win $26

Race 2 no.7 Wimlah 0.5 unit win at $3.20

Eace 4 no.7 Mrs Madrid 0.1 unit win tote

Race 6 no.10 Wu Gok 0.5 unit win at $6.50

Rsce 9 no.2 Black Magnum 0.5 unit win at $4.60

Results: +5.875 units (5.5% POT, 106.7 units outlayed).

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Rosehill

H9- Rail out 3m.

History:

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9

22/09/2018       Rosehill 3m        G4         Pretty fair track this. No disadv to be off pace and wide but could win on pace fence first six races at least                                             

10/11/2018       Rhill      3            G4         Pretty fair re lanes. On pace slught adv as always good track racing                                                      

1/12/2018         Rose      3m        G4         Fence inferior here. 3-6 the place to be. Seemed ok to sit 3wnc even without cover. Too many ran well doing so                                                  

2/02/2019         Rose      3m        S7          Pretty fair track re lanes and could run on although on pace slight adv

23/03/2019       Rosehill 3m        H9         A few off fence in run here and wider. Not easy to make ground                                        

1/06/2019         Rosehill 3m        G4         Pretty fair track although got wide last 3-4 races. Fence in run seemed adv but not everything.             

13/07/2019       Rosehill 3M        h8         Pretty fair track this- Probably sl adv wider again but could win near fence                      

Assessment: Wider the better here on the wet track. Expect them to get to middle. Wide gates no issue late in day.

Race 1

Overview: Pretty deep Highway this. What do we do with Assault’n’bathory. He pulled up lame last start and has been a late scratching since after being found to be lame on track before the race. He performed well in a recent jump out and has pulled up with no issues and he gets a softer time on speed here. The booking of Nash Rawiller is a huge plus too. Girls Are Ready did enough fresh over the 1080m and she probably should have won over 1400m at Eagle Farm last prep (it wasn’t a strong race though). The key with her is she loves wet ground. Lady Demi had no luck at all at 1100m at Randwick last weekend but now goes sharply to 1400m, while Vertex, Scarlet Missile and Gunga Din all have claims.

Advice- Assault'n'bathory the horse to beat but Vertex the value if ready fresh.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Speed doesn’t look hectic as is normal for Highways. Expect Assautl’n’bathory to lead with Yarrinup Flyer and Real Classic right there.

Likely market trend: All depends on weather!

Selections: 1-3-8-15 

1.Assault’n’bathory-35 days between runs. He pulled up lame last start and has been a late scratching since after being found to be lame on track before the race. He performed well in a recent jump out and has pulled up with no issues and he gets a softer time on speed here. The booking of Nash Rawiller is a huge plus too. Wet track looks fine and he has been really brave on pace of late.

3.Girls Are Ready-did enough fresh over the 1080m and she probably should have won over 1400m at Eagle Farm last prep (it wasn’t a strong race though). The key with her is she loves wet ground.

8.Vertex-Blinkers on first-up. Fresh record sound- Last time blinkers went on second in a Highway when closing off. Wet suits. Could be overs here.

15.Isadora Twinkle -Disapp last start but should have almost won two back on wet ground. Meets Scarlet Missile 7kg better from that day and Assaultnbathory 5kg better off.

Other chances:

7.Scarlet Missile -Rarely runs a bad race. Wet track no issue.

17.Gunga Din- Didn’t beat much at Canberra first-up (8 subs st 0 pl from race) but loved the stride on him and looks to have improved. Could be on the up.

Other runners:

2. No Emotion,4. Eurosay, 9. Yarrinup Flyer, 10. Fortune’s Path, 11. Real Classic, 13. Well Decorated, 16. Miss Charlie, 18. Who’s Shout.

 

Race 2

Overview: I know she was a bit disappointing last start but back on wet ground with a more aggressive ride can see Wimlah turn her form around here. She just got shuffled back last start but expect them to be more aggressive here. See Me Exceed did go past Wimlah like she was standing still last start and could be a bit of value here at $18? She also beat home Helga and Waking Moment in the meantime. That was a surprise performance though and she hasn’t been tried on a proper wet track (predicting heavy on Saturday). Re Edit and Zalatte run on as well.

Advice: Leaning to Wimlah .

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Speed looks below average with Helga and Wimlah to dominate.

Likely market trend: Expecting Wimlah to start favourite here. 

Selections: 7-5-9-8

7.Wimlah- She was a bit disappointing last start but back on wet ground with a more aggressive ride can see Wimlah turn her form around here. She just got shuffled back last start but expect them to be more aggressive here and be outside lead. Good run behind Subedar prior. Wet suits.

5.Helga- On pace favours- Seemed to have chance last start. Gets through rain affected ground.

9. Seles

8. Song And A Prayer

Other runners:

2. Lady Cuvee, 3. Slow Burn,  10. Rossmay 12. The Promise, 13. Le Lude.

 

Race 3

Overview: Thy Kingdom Come was a dominant winner fourth up last prep and maybe he was just half a run short last time out. He should roll forward here and the rain affected track shouldn’t bother him. Pelethronius was a bit disappointing last start but he normally loves wet tracks and most of his runs at Rosehill have been on top of the ground. He can bounce back. What do we do with Adana? He was unlucky again last start but didn’t ping when finally clear and he is becoming costly. I would be keen on Irukandji if the track was dry. He comes through clearly the strongest race first-up but the issue is his wet form looks horrible.

Advice: Leaning to Adana now it's wet.

Confidence: 4/10.

Speed map: Tempo looks solid enough with Thy Kingdom Come, Shock Alert and Bart all up there.

Likely market trend: Weather dependent. Thy Kingdom Come and Adana should dominate betting. Irukandji could firm more if the track isn’t too wet. Pelethronius firms if genuine heavy.

Selections: 11-1-2-5

11.Adana- unlucky again last start but didn’t ping when finally clear and he is becoming costly. Gets in light again and wet track definitely helps. Vegadaze form on wet ground reads well.

1.Pelethronius- disappointing last start but he normally loves wet tracks and most of his runs at Rosehill have been on top of the ground. He can bounce back. Not a great record here but most of his runs here were on top of ground.

2.Thy Kingdom Come- Looked home last start and caught late. dominant winner fourth up last prep and maybe he was just half a run short last time out. He should roll forward here and the rain affected track shouldn’t bother him. 1500m as far as he wants the little ?

5. irukandji- Super fresh run but wet track a big ?

Other runners:

3. Got Unders, 6. Mapmaker, 7. Shock Alert, \9. Conarchie, 10. Devil’s Lair,  13. Weekend Affair.

Race 4

Overview: The weather plays a key part here and then there is the international Heart Of Grace, who has been backed off the map ($34-$5.50). Let’s start with him. Firstly, they went up the wrong price and secondly his form reads pretty well behind Ghostwatch and Supernova overseas. His trials have been solid enough. Costello probably should have won last start and you could say the same thing two starts back. He is flying and just doesn’t want it wet. Mrs Madrid is a sneaky chance at odds. She should have been right in the finish in a weaker race fresh and get in nice and light here. Missybeel wasn’t suited back to 1600m last start but will appreciate a wet track and 2000m.

Advice: Costello the horse to beat on form but how good is this import, Heart Of Grace? Mrs Madrid the overs?

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Strong speed expected with Monasterio rolling along, Ulusaba, The Good Fight and Monsieur Sisu up there.

Likely market trend: Hard to tell with this import. Does he drift back out a touch? Costello starts favourite if track isn’t too wet.

Selections: 17-8-14-5

17.Mrs Madrid- a sneaky chance at odds. She should have been right in the finish in a weaker race fresh and get in nice and light here. Wet track would help.

8.Humboldt Current- Set up for him but good win last start on wet ground. Chased hard prior over shorter trip. Should go hard again here and gets his chance again.

14.Missybeel- wasn’t suited back to 1600m last start but will appreciate a wet track and 2000m. No luck two back when should have beaten home Ulusaba. Chased TOryjoy prior in good figures.

5. Costello- probably should have won last start and you could say the same thing two starts back. He is flying and just doesn’t want it wet. Going well, gets another chance and meets Ulusaba 2.5kg better off when he should have beaten that horse home last start.

Other chances:

11.Heart Of Grace- Firstly, they went up the wrong price and secondly his form reads pretty well behind Ghostwatch and Supernova overseas. His trials have been solid enough. Hard to line up but has good form lines. First up since Sep last year.

6. Ulusaba- Just rarely runs a bad race and what you see is what you get with hi

Other runners:

1. Loveisili, 2. The Good Fight, 3. Monsieur Sisu, 4. Nahuel, 6. Ulusaba, 7. Decroux, 9. Monasterio, 10. Zoffany’s Lad, 12. Monegal, 15. Keep Up, 16. Constellation.

Race 5

Overview: Hard to go past Bivouac and he could well be a start. His overall figure first-up was super and his overall time was six lengths quicker than Exhillarates on the day despite that filly’s race going quicker to the 600m! He loves a wet track too. Exceedance is untapped but will they run him first-up on a wet track? Yes Yes Yes is in the same boat. He looks like a serious horse but whether they risk him first-up on a rain affected surface is also a query. Anaheed can improve out of sight here. She went too quick first-up with a big weight and pulled up 1/5 lame. She is a swimmer too.

Advice: Bivouac hard to beat. Anaheed the place could interest me if it’s proper heavy.

Speed map: Speed looks below average. Anaheed looks the leader with Bivouac not far away. Yes Yes Yes should be midfield and Exceedance drifts back.

Likely market trend: Expecting Exceedance to start second favourtie behind Bivouac.

Confidence: 7/10.

Selections: 3-6-4-5

3.Bivouac- Could well be a star. His rating first up was outstanding. Race run a full second (6L!) quicker than Exhillarates on day despite his race being run slower to 600m. That was on a S5 and he has beaten Cosmic Force on h8 and Libertini on S7. He swims.

6.Exceedance- Can’t wait to see what he has to offer. Debut win was very good at provincials when came home with wet sail and then slow tempi second up and reeled off a 32.38 L600. Was off slow tempo so keep that in mind but horses don’t go much quicker!                                                 

4.Anaheed- Want to be forgiving  of first-up. Went too hard, had big weight and pulled up 1/5 lame. Key is she leads here and she is a swimmer. Beat home Yes Yes Yes in Golden Slipper on heavy track.

5. Catch Me-

Other runners:

 7. Royal Popcorn.

Race 6

Overview: Not a race I’m overly keen on but the $16 about Wu Guk looks over the odds if we get a fair amount of rain in the next two days. He was only beaten a couple of lengths last start against a similar field on a dry track and we know he is a much better wet tracker. Wolfe looks the horse to beat again. This will be his first race on a wet track but he is hard to knock and beat most of these last start. So You Win meets Wolfe 3.5kg better off from last start and loves Rosehill, while Girl Tuesday was dynamic first-up and just doesn’t want it too wet. Watch betting on Sweet Thomas and Come Play With Me.

Advice: Wu Gok the value.

Speed map: Tempo looks moderate. Wolfe looks to lead on his own.

Selections: 10-7-9-4

10.Wu Gok- Wants it to rain and be a genuine heavy track. Meets Wolfe 2.5kg beter off from last start and he loves it wet. Rarely runs a bad race.

7.So You Win- Gets a 3.5kg swing on Wolfe, soft record is strong, loves Rosehill and runs well.

9.Wolfe- Horse to beat. Beat a lot of these first-up over 1800m and has improvement to come. Gets in light again and leads for fun. First run on a wet track the ? perhaps.

4. Sweet Thomas- Liked him at the trials. Market support?

Other chances:

3. Grey Lion- Loved his trial. Just doesn’t want it too wet but runs well.

8. Mawaany Machine- Back in trip here, did fight back to win two back in Melb. Can bounce back?

2. Carzoff- Freshened-always capable.

Other runners:

 2. Carzoff,5. Come Play With Me, 11. Savacool, 12. Dagny.

Race 7

Overview: I’m a little surprised Maddi Rocks (scratched) isn’t favourite here. I know the gate is sticky but she was beaten by a smart horse last start and I reckon the 1400m is fine. The speed looks genuine and I expect her to be the strongest late. Subedar is the danger and he was a good winner when stepping out of a maiden last start. This looks harder again though. I’m respecting the Queenslander Alligator Blood but this looks harder than what he has been racing against in the sunshine state. He did win with a leg in the air last start though and the second horse has run well since. I thought the Kiwis, Quick Thinker and Rhaeger were more multiple chances personally. Their recent trials haven’t impressed me in NZ.

Advice: Subedar to win.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Strong tempo expected with Academy, Aspect Ratio, Mystery Trick and Savoury rolling forward. Favourite back a touch.

Likely market trend:  Subedar should dominate betting.

Selections: 5-7-1-2

5.Subedar- Has the 1400m form, reckon it’s slightly inferior to Maddi Rocks but he handled wet track in a trial and is still on the up. Drawn low but I don’t think that will be an advantage at this time of day.

7.Reformist- Liked the way he foind the line fresh and the extra trip suits. Form didn’t stack up through Rock on Wednesday but has upside out to this trip. Place chance.

1.Alligator Blood- Good win in Qld first-up in solid figures. Second horse placed since. Obviously harder but must respect. Looks to have come back well. Weighted up to best with 59kg? Has to give likes of MR 5kg.

2. Quick Thinker, 

Other runners:

3. Rhaeger, 4. Academy, 8. Savoury, 9. Mystery Trick, 10. Satin Rain, 11. Aspect Ratio.

Race 8

Overview: Haut Brion Her (scratched) comes up with a tricky gate here but I have to lean her way despite that at the price. She has clocked the quickest last 200m split of the race at her past two starts after sitting up on speed and James McDonald jumps aboard. Her overall time was a fair bit sharper than Alizee’s last start. I wish I got a bit of the $7.50 TAB put up about Desert Lord! He looks to be settling better this time in and I loved his trial leading in. His win last prep was in strong overall time (last 600m was very good) although he beat far inferior opposition to what he meets here. All Too Royal was dominant first-up in strong figures and the only knock now is the inside draw and whether the track is playing to the middle by this time of the day. Mister Songman was solid first-up but might need a bit further again, while Fasika took all before her last prep and gets her chance in a race like this.

Advice: Desert Lord on top.

Speed map: Speed looks strong here with Haut Brion Her, You Make Me Smile and Greyworm the most prominent. Desert Lord shouldn’t be too far away.

Likely market trend: Expecting Desert Lord to start favourite here.

Selections: 7-16-3-14

7.Desert Lord- Seems to be settling better this prep. Very good win last start before a break and loved his trial. Maps well. Hard to beat.

16. So Taken.

3.Mister Songman- Too short for him first-up but stuck on. Is extra 100m enough> Has won heavy in Tassie.

14. Greyworm,-

Other hance:

2. Highland Beat.

5. You Make Me Smile, 

Other runners:

9. More To Gain, 10. Piracy, 11. Ranier, 15. Murillo.

Race 9

Overview: I thought Black Magnum was generously priced at $8.50 here and he seems to be forgotten off one bad run. He was too bad to be true last start and while his recent trial was just OK, the key is getting back onto a wet track. He loves wet ground and he gets in well at the weights after the claim. God Of Thunder is the horse to beat off his slashing return run but he has come up short here at $2.90 all the same. His wet form is OK without raving about. Blue Roche, Wayupinthesky, Roosevelt and Master Ash on the next line.

Advice: Black Magnum at the odds.

Speed map: Strong speed expected with Bombarding, Sheriff, Master Ash and Spanish Dream up there. Hopefully Black Magnum tucks in behind them.

Likely market trend: God Of Thunder will start short here being the last fav of the day and a popular horse.

Selections: 2-9-8-13

2.Black Magnum- Brilliant return on wet ground and backed it up with a strong win where he defeated multiple winners. Failed latest but that was on dry ground with a bad run in transit. Trial fair since last start but key is getting back onto a wet track. Seems big odds off one bad run.

9.God Of Thunder- Tricky draw? Super effort from back fresh where probably should have won. Wet form OK but not sold on yet,. Gives them a start?

8.Roosevelt- Maybe a bit close fresh but that was a weaker race. Best rating was at Wariwck Farm on a genuine wet track. Gets his chance but has been overrated to date.

13. Spanish Dream-

Other runners:

12. Condemned, 16. Isorich.



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Rosehill Aug 31

 Email to friend   

       

Send to friend

Brad Davidson preview Rosehill Aug 31

Your Name *
Your Email *
Friend's Name *
Friend's Email *

Racing Search

Live Racing

International Racing

Upcoming International Racing on Sky

Thursday 14th

Bet Now New Zealand ADDINGTON
G1 - Christchurch Casino Nz Cup

Bet Now New Zealand ADDINGTON
G1 - The Fitz Sports Bar Galaxy Sprint

Friday 15th

New Zealand ADDINGTON
G1 - Woodlands Nz Pacing Ffa

New Zealand ADDINGTON
G1 - Haras Des Trotteurs Dominion Trot

Saturday 16th

PUNCHESTOWN
G1 - Morgiana Hdle

View Sky International

Form Guide

Sports

Connect