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Brad Davidson preview Randwick September 7

 Sep 5 2019

Randwick

Best value

Race 4 no.4 Master Ash $8 (rated $6)

The $8 seems over the odds here in a really winnable race. I think the favourite Baller has been a touch overrated to date and while he can definitely win, he is under the odds for mine. Master Ash showed good ability early in his career and then has been disappointing for a little while. He comes back as a gelding and I like the way he has been finding the line in two trials (particularly the first one). Adrian Bott has been very bullish about this horse over the past fortnight and they scratched him from a wet track to wait for this. Happy to be on at $6.50 or beyond.

 

Normal strategy (30 units)

Race 4 no.4 Master Ash 20 unit win at $8 (***recording at $8 as price has held up 10 mins after email sent)

10 unit main quaddie (starts r6, 13.88%): 1st leg: 3. 2nd leg: 1,12,14. 3rd leg: 2,3,4,13. 4th leg: 3,4,6,8,10,15. 

Results: +26.7 units, (+1%POT, 3766 unit outlay)

 

Long game strategy (0.5 units)

Race 4 no.4 Master Ash 0.5 unit win at $8 (***recording at $8 as price has held up 10 mins after email sent)

Results: +11.6 unit profit, (10%POT, 112.25 units outlayed)

 

Horses I’m AGAINST at current prices:

Race 3 no.3 Miss Invincible $3.40 (surprised she is favourite. Should drift)

Race 4 no.3 Baller $2.20 (back in grade sure but seems short for a horse who didn’t attack the line fresh)

Race 5 no.4 Villami $8.50 (no horse should be under double figures to beat Libertini here)

Race 8 No.2 Te Akau Shark $2.60 (might come out and blow rivals away but I think the hype around this horse has been factored in here. Has to drift).

 

 

 

Expecting a good 4 rail out 8m.

History:

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9

14/02/2017       rAND     8M        G4         Middle of track best part- Fence 1-2l inferior                                                  

20/01/2018       Rand     8M        g4          Rail definitely place to be. Big advantage                                                   

20/10/2018 Randwick    8m        S7          Wider the better here. Could come off pace as result          

22/06/2019       Randwick           6m        H8              Played pretty well but I'm not sure hard fence was the place to be. Wider the better I still thonk. Didn't want to be too far back                                            

6/07/2019         Randwick           9m        H9         No lanes just hard to make ground as a rule- only one winner settled further back than 4th     

24/08/019         Rwick    4            G4         Fair track. 6/9 winners fence in run but not reading too much into it and could win from anywhere                               

Assessment: Bit of a mixed bag with this rail. Not normally used the 8m rail position so I’ve included last rail at 6m and 9m and last meeting here (Aug 24). Combined a very strong WSW and thinking rails and on lead early here unless we see otherwise.

Wind: Near gale W expected at this stage. Tail wind in the straight which could make on pace runners hard to run down here.

 

Race 1

Overview: Great race but tough from a betting perspective. I’m a little surprised the gap is as big as it is between Pandemic and Funstar and Yao Dash in the market. I’ll lean the way of Yao Dash as a result and he was ultra impressive on debut. He got a soft time on speed but his last 200m (11.08s) was the quickest of the day and the second horse, Petronius won on Wednesday. The news of the pending change of tactics with Pretty Brazen to be ridden quieter has swung me his way as he looks to lead comfortably (track and wind could favour on pace too. Funstar is a good horse. Her win was strong on the wrong part of the track last start and the sectionals were impressive. Pandemic is a horse on the up and his win was better than it looked the other day after overcoming trouble. He clocked 10.76s for his last 200m which was the quickest of the day. Superium was first past the post against True Detective last start before being demoted to second on protest and also has claims.

Advice: Great race but tough from a betting perspective. Leaning to Yao Dash.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Yao Dash should lead comfortably with news Pretty Brazen will be ridden quieter. Superium should be handy.

Likely market trend: Hard to say what they will do here but I think Pandemic gets out a touch considering it’s a very competitive race.

Selections: 4-3-2-1

4.Yao Dash ($4.20)- Should lead- Got is soft last start but very strong late. 11.08 L200 was quickest of the day. Nash from the front with that early wind could be hard to catch. Also helped by fact Pretty Brazen to be ridden quieter.

3.Funstar ($4.20)- QL600,400,200 of day LS before break. Nice soft trial coming in in just fair time but she wasn’t let off the bit and I liked the way she jumped.

2.Pandemic ($3.20)- 10.76 Ql200 of the day. Good late figures. Overall time sme as B88 on day. Up 5.5kg.

1.Superium ($7.50)- was first past the post against True Detective last start before being demoted to second on protest and also has claims. Time was solid enough. Improving type.

Other runners:

5. Macambo ($110), 6. Maddi Rocks ($14), 7. Pretty Brazen ($110), 9. Emeralds ($221).

Race 2

Overview: Very competitive Highway with plenty of angles to look at. One form angle is the Charlotte’s Heart Highway where both Lady Demi and Riolo had no luck whatsoever and should have been in the finish. Whether that form is strong enough here is the query but they have to be respected at odds. You could make a case to say Zardoro should have won his past three starts but he draws wide again here and gives them a start. Leshrac is only coming off a maiden win but it was the quickest of three 1200m races on the day, the third horse has won since and the second horse has been beaten less than a length in a Brisbane city race since. Denmiss is not hopeless either.

Advice: Many, many chances!

Confidence: 4/10.

Speed map: Hit The Target looks the leader. Pace only looks moderate on paper but they generally go quick in Highways.

Likely market trend: Will reserve opinion here until we see final make up of field on Saturday morning.

Selections: 15-12-9-13

15.Leshrac ($7.50)-will be priced if makes field)- is only coming off a maiden win but it was the quickest of three 1200m races on the day, the third horse has won since and the second horse has been beaten less than a length in a Brisbane city race since.

12.Lady Demi ($9)- no luck last start and must be considered!

9.Rioli ($13)- no luck last start and must be considered!

13.Denmiss ($29)- Did enough fresh and can settle closer here. Probably more a place hope.

Other chances:

7. Barbass ($13)- Eye catching trials. Market guide race day?

4. Hit The Target ($8.50)- Seems short in market but trial behind Suncraze solid and form last prep ok for this. Market guide?

10. Charlotte’s Heart ($16)- Did beat a few of these last start. Must be somewhere there.

5. Nicconita ($13)- Has a nice finish on day and always capable in this type of race.

8. Vacate ($13)- WNC last start and strong win prior in OK figures. Not hopless.

Other runners:

1.Equal Balance ($26), 6. Press Box ($19),14. Revitup Rednut ($16), 16. Marokawa ($16), 17. Glamour Cruise ($33).

Race 3

Overview: Competitive race. Ballistica hit the line strongly to score first-up against a weaker field and she clocked the quickest late splits of the day there. This is another level but she has upside. Blue Roche is a classy mare on her day and I loved the way she hit the line in her first trial and then she was only beaten by Libertini in her second trial. She was good behind Humma Humma in Melbourne first-up at Moonee Valley last prep. Bare Naked Lady’s form lines last prep read OK for this. I thought Miss Invincible was under the odds at $3.90 and she didn’t attack the line last start.

Advice:Ballistica on top.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Miss Invincible and Annie Pru look the two on pace runners.  Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: Expecting Invictus Salute and Ballistica to be the two punters gravitate towards.

Selections: 7-1-5-3

7.Ballistica ($3.50)- Seems to have come back a better horse. Quickest last 800,600,400 and 200 of the day last start. This looks harder but she will be strong late.

1.Blue Roche ($3.80)- Class runner of the race. Hit the line well in first trial, second trial beaten by Libertini but solid. 2nd to Humma Humma first-up last prep in OK figures (form out of race just OK). Now with Snowden’s.

5.Bare Naked Lady ($6)- resuming no trials. Decent form last prep for a race like this. Beaten Cl1 fresh last prep but went to a new level throughout the campaign. Not hopeless fresh.

3. Miss Invincible ($6)-

Other runners:

 4. Kawaikini ($12), 6. Jay Jay Dar ($41), 9. Annie Pru ($165), 11. Our Rosemaree ($165).

Race 4

Overview: Looks a nice race for Master Ash and I’m putting a bit of confidence in Adrian Bott’s recent comments about this horse (has been gelded since last prep). He has been quite bullish in recent weeks that this horse is back to his best and his trials have been good in strong company. I think $8 is over the odds. Baller drops back in grade but I can’t help to feel he has been a bit overrated to date due to his big run in the Galaxy last season on wet ground. I couldn’t back him at $2.25 and he didn’t surge through the line fresh. I think All Too Free is the danger to Master Ash and she is really going well this prep. This is harder again but she deserves her chance in a race like this. Murillo was OK fresh, while Noble Joey gets a soft lead and could be worth a speck if it’s playing leaderish. Petrology (good run at the Gold Coast first-up last prep but set up for him that day) and Wander have place hopes.

Advice: Master Ash the value at $8.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Noble Joey looks the leader with Baller coming across. Master Ash and Maxbux should be prominent. Speed looks below average here.

Likely market trend: Baller should get out a bit, while I’m hoping Master Ash firms but concede punters could take a stand against him off his form last prep as well. All Too Free should stay solid.

Selections: 4-7-3-5

4.Master Ash ($6)- Bubble Cheeker (Off Side) FIRST TIME, Ear Muffs (Pre-Race Only) FIRST TIME, Gelded. Liked his two trials against good horses in solid times.. Maps just behind the speed and should be strong late. Stable have been bullish on him in last few weeks.

7.All Too Free ($5)-Good against the bias first up (hard to make ground) and then too good latest. Tougher again here but has upside.

3.Baller ($3.50)-Was just OK fresh. Back in grade here but up in weight and would have liked to have seen hit the line better. Looks short enough?

5. Noble Joey ($42)- Seems big odds at $81. Has been disappointing of late but definitely capable on his day and he should find the front here.

Others for multiples:

2.Murillo ($10)- OK fresh and should improve but needs to. Drops back in grade.

10.Wander ($25)- OK late last start and while 1200m record not flash, may be looking for it now.

1.Petrology ($42)- Form mixed but good first-up run at the Gold Coast last prep. Set up for him that day but closed well and a similar performance first-up seems him as a cheeky place hope.

Other runners:

6. Condor ($13), 8. Eugene’s Pick ($26), 9. Tarbert ($25), 11. Maxbux ($1300).

 

Race 5

Overview: We get to see Libertini go around again here and she is a star who should win easily again. She puts herself close to the speed and has an electrifying turn of foot. She just wins. Let It Pour looks the most probable to run second and she was good finding the line behind Libertini last start. She has really gone to another level this prep. Kiamichi was disappointing first-up and might need it a bit further, while Kiamichi was disappointing first-up but prefers a wet surface (she is unlikely to get that here). This track should be drying out by Saturday (strong winds predicted Saturday will help that).

Advice: Libertini just wins. Let It Pour to run second at $3.50 looks a bet if it’s not playing leaderish as the danger to this bet is the leader (Villami). Can monitor this throughout the day.

Confidence: 10/10 re Libertini winning but the price reflects that naturally.

Speed map: Villami should lead comfortably with Darling Point coming across. Libertini should be just behind them. Speed looks below average.

Selections: 2-5-4-1

2.Libertini ($1.15)- Return with a band when clocking overall time .8s quicker than Deprive on same day eased down. Best rating race of the day eased down. She is a star!                   

5.Let It Pour ($21)- The $2.90 to run top two looks overs. Beat home Villami last start and while that horse gets an easier lead here she would have been pretty ready for that first-up attempt. Two runs back have both been good.

4.Villami ($21)- Should find the lead here where she had to settle for outside lead LS. How is track playing? Generally a stable that get them ready fresh (15+% strike rate first up horses last 3 years v   

1.Kiamichi ($39)- Disapp fresh and doesn’t geta wet track here. Needs to lift but did take on older horses fresh and did win a Golden Slipper!


Other runners:

3. Probabeel ($49), 6. Darling Point ($300), 7. Bright Rubick ($500).

 

Race 6

Overview: Interesting race the Concorde. It’s only a small field but pretty much every runner has the ability to win. The Chris Waller stable are trying to get Nature Strip to relax this prep and he hit the line well behind Redzel in a recent trial. The 1000m is a great kick off for him and he looks the horse to beat. His speed has been his asset in the past so it will be interesting to see whether the new approach works wonders or backfires. I expect Zoustyle to lead and I wouldn’t be surprised if he measures up here. His recent trial in Queensland was very good in very slick time (about eight lengths quicker than any other trial on the day and the last 600m was slick). Sunlight is a ripper and she will be right there fresh and has been trialling well. She was beaten five lengths by Nature Strip first-up over 1050m two preps back. It’s a bit of a fork in the road moment for Redzel. His form is generally better in the spring so can he bounce back. Hard to knock his trials.

Advice: Nature Strip on top.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Expecting Zoustyle to lead with Sunlight coming across. Nature Strip should take the sit as they’re teaching him to settle at the trials.

Likely market trend: Nature Strip should start a firm favourite. He is a popular horse.

Selections: 3-4-6-1

3.Nature Strip ($2.60)- Ear muffs off. Trials have been good. Trying to get him to switch off which seems to be working. I’m guessing they ride him with a sit? Good fresh record.

4.Sunlight ($5.50)- Trials have been sharp, sits in first few and can only run well. Wide in the Everest and gets drying ground here.

6.Zoustyle ($7)-1000m fresh looks ideal and I reckon he will lead these. Trial in Qld recently was very sharp when zipping home about 8L quicker than anything on day. How is track playing?

1.Redzel ($10)- Disapp in the autumn but won this race last two years and seems to always a better horse in the spring.

Other chances:

2. Pierata ($10), 5. Graff ($12).

Race 7

Overview: Avilius looks the horse to beat but I can’t get him odds on here. He put the writing on the wall first-up and should appreciate further but he is still short of his best trip. Unforgotten has a good record at this track and distance and she won this race last year. She also ran a bottler in the Queen Of The Turf at this track and distance last spring. I like the way Con Te Partiro found the line first-up over 1200m after being held up. She goes up sharply to 1600m here but she has always looked like a miler. Sixties Groove and Girl Tuesday both run on late, while Samadoubt just might run a cheeky race from the front again.

Advice: Avilius the horse to beat but I haven’t got them as far apart as $1.95 and $8? I’ll lean Unforgotten’s way as a result. Con Te Partiro for multiples.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Samadoubt leads with Con Te Partiro coming across. Speed should be even as Samadoubt will want to roll at an even clip I would imagine.

Likely market trend: Avilius is a popular horse but I can’t imagine him getting much shorter. He could drift slightly.

Selections: 12-1-14-15

12.Unforgotten ($7)- good record at this track and distance and she won this race last year. She also ran a bottler in the Queen Of The Turf at this track and distance last spring. Ran on well enough fresh.

1.Avilius ($2.15)- Avilius looks the horse to beat but I can’t get him odds on here off the fresh run. He put the writing on the wall first-up and should appreciate further but he is still short of his best trip. Horse to beat all the same.

14.Con Te Partiro ($12)- I like the way Con Te Partiro  found the line first-up over 1200m after being held up. She goes up sharply to 1600m here but she has always looked like a miler.

15.Girl Tuesday ($15)-Savaged the line to score first-up. Finds another dry track which has been key. 1600m no issue, gets her chance in a race like this.

Other runners:

2. Samadoubt ($15), 3. Finche ($42), 4. Shraaoh ($105), 6. Patrick Erin ($52), 7. Haripour ($104), 8. Sir Charles Road ($208), 9. Maurus ($105), 10. Brimham Rocks ($209), 11. Angel Of Truth ($21), 13. Youngstar ($26), 16. Nettoyer ($209).

 

Race 8

Overview: Fascinating race where we see the boom Kiwi, Te Akau Shark go around. He is clearly talented but he seems short at $2.50 for mine in a race with quite a few winning chances. He will be running on strongly but he is going to get back and we don’t know how this track is going to play just yet. Kolding is unbeaten in four runs as a gelding and he just might keep improving here. The $8 seems fair. Dreamforce has always been a touch underrated. He has improved every prep and gets a good run on speed here and his fresh record is good (should have gone close fresh last prep- no luck!). 

Advice: leaning to Kolding despite the fact he isn't well off at the weights.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Expect Penske to lead and roll at an even clip. Dreamforce comes across and gets a nice run on speed. 

Likely market trend: The bookies are keeping Te Akau Shark very short but surely he gets out from $2.50. He is a winning chance for sure but this is very competitive.

Selections: 3-4-2-13

3.Kolding ($7)- is unbeaten in four runs as a gelding and he just might keep improving here. Clocked some good late splits to win Qld Guineas before a break and trials nice.

4.Dreamforce ($7.50)- I was hoping for better than $6.50 about Dreamforce but he has always been a touch underrated. He has improved every prep and gets a good run on speed here and his fresh record is good (should have gone close fresh last prep- no luck!).

2.Te Akau Shark ($3.50)- Only knock is the price. Seems short? Good from back first-up in NZ but form out of last few races over there hasn’t been super. Won two back by 6L on dry but I don’t think he beat much that day. Quite clearly good but has to drift?

13. Penske ($12)- Will roll along in front and latest trial was impressive.Could give them something to catch.

Other chances:

12. Star Of The Seas ($25)- Came a long way last prep. Has he gone forward again? Could be a sneaky chance at odds and he can reel off a slick last 600m.

5. Mister Sea Wolfe ($21)- Probably prefers it a bit wetter but fresh record is good. Knockout hope.

14. Eckstein ($10)- Just racing so consistently. No surprise to see her figure here although this is a step up.

7. Archedemus ($15)- Came a long way last prep- Prefers wet ground though but nice soft trial

8. Invincible Gem ($13),

Other runners:

1. Life Less Ordinary ($38), 6. Le Juge ($102), 10. Mantastic ($153), 11. Kaonic ($77).

 

Race 9

Overview: Very open race to finish the day. Track bias beat Scarlet Dream first-up at Rosehill last prep and she has trialled up well for this, while Re Edit has also impressed at the trials.  Sweet Deal is flying and she has really turned a corner at her past two starts. The wide gate is the knock here. Muraqeeb could represent some value and he does have a good record at this track. I would have liked to have seen a bit more first-up though and there’s a query of whether he is one run short off a long break. Morton’s Fork isn’t hopeless at 70-1 either.

Advice: Many chances here- slight leaning to Junipal.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Special Missile and LA Chica Bella look the two leaders, while Dark Eyes, Muraqeeb and Sweet Deal should be prominent. Tempo looks genuine enough on paper.

Likely market trend: They could gravitate towards a host of runners here.

Selections: 8-6-15-10

8.Scarlet Dream ($6.50)- Track bias beat Scarlet Dream first-up at Rosehill last prep and she has trialled up well for this. Has a nice turn of foot on her day.

6.Sweet Deal ($4.50)- flying and she has really turned a corner at her past two starts. The wide gate is the knock here and I don’t want her to be wide as she can overdoit in the run. Needs luck. Also entered Wyong Fri but I understand Sat the preference.

15.Re Edit ($7)- Liked the first trial- Came a fair way last prep and just has to take that step again.

10. Dealmaker ($8.50)- Had the flashing light on fresh and second up record is strong. Just gets a long way back.

Other chances:

3.Morton’s Fork ($38)- Isn’t hopeless at 70s. Has a bit of fresh form and trial was sound. Maybe one to throw in quaddie at huge odds.

4. Muraqeeb ($17)- Probanly needs one more but does like it here and should roll across and be on speed.

Other runners:

1.Hallejujah Boy ($30), 2. Special Missile ($10), 5. Artlee ($61), 7. Dark Eyes ($81), 9. Articus ($0), 13. Pelethronius ($40),18. Carif ($21).

 



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