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Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm Oct 16

BRAD DAVIDSON PREVIEW WARWICK FARM OCT 16 Oct 15 2019

Warwick Farm

***Confidence levels only 6/10 for best bets today***

Hardest to beat

Race 3 no.1 High Shine $2.40 (confidence 6/10, rated $2.40)

She has her fair share of weight but I just think High Shine might be a bit classy for these. Her fresh win last prep was very good and her trials have been pleasing. 

Best value

Race 7 no.2 Invinciano $4.40 (confidence 6/10, rated $4)

Not much between the top two but I think Invinciano is the bet at the odds. I concede she hasn’t beaten much but she has all the upside in the world and she just has to have gone forward a touch to be right in this from the good draw.

Expected firmers:

Expected drifters:

Race 1 no.3 Elegant Grace $2.80 (could be wrong being a first starter but $2.80 seems skinny off a country trial)

Race 4 no.3 Breakdance $4.20 (chance but so are 7 others. Seems well found)

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

 

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less.

 

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy

Race 3 no.1 High Shine 15 unit win at $2.40

Race 7 no.2 Invinciano 15 unit win at $4.60 (before scratchings)

10 unit main quaddie (starts r5, 20.83%): 1st leg: 2,3,7,1,8,4. 2nd leg: 4,5. 3rd leg: 2,6. 4th leg: 9,10.

Results: -76 units, (-1.7%POT, 4376 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy

Race 3 no.1 High Shine 0.5 unit win at $2.40

Race 7 no.2 Invinciano 0.5 unit win at $4.60 (before scratchings)

Results: +12.1 unit profit, (9.3%POT, 129.8 units outlayed)

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Think! About your choices.

 

Rail position: 5m, good track

History of track bias:    

22/08/2018       WF        5m        G4         wanted to get off fence 1 or 2 lanes but only one winner further back than 4th all day and that was staying race                           

10/10/2018       WF        5m        H10       As is the case with wet WF to the middle and wider best ground- Fence not hopeless- Could sit three wide no cover in run here                                       

5/12/2018         WF        5m        G4         On speed here most of the day only one winner further back 4th and that was last race. Didn't want hard fence. Lanes 1-4 best early then wider later                                

28/01/2019       WF        5m        H9         Pretty on pace here. Small fields somewhat exagerrated this but not easy to make ground as a rule. Re lanes were getting a few off but back towards inside OK too. Just not hard fence                                  

17/04/2019       WF        5m        G4         Fence and first two lanes advantage and on pace, hard to make ground out wide                                       

29/05/2019       WF        5m        G4         Fair track                                        

17/07/2019       WF        5m        s6 but G4              Pretty fair track. Rail fine                                      

28/08/2019       WF        5m        G4         Hard to make ground as a rule and if you could had to be in first 3 lanes, couldn't make ground out wide.                            

Assessment: Can be hard to make ground with this rail and genuinely closer to fence.

Wind: Light winds expected.         

 

Race 1

Overview: Late betting crucial here. Montserrat pulled up with cardiac arrythmia fresh (which is a complete forgive) and his trials either side have been pleasing. Harto looks to have talent and I have loved the way he has finished off in his two trials to date. He is well bred and just needs to learn how to relax. Elegant Grace trialled up well but that was in the country and she seems short enough here? Solid Foundation has also pleased at the trials.

Advice: Not much between 1 and 4. Leant the way of 1 simply because of barrier draw but late betting will give us more intel.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Absolutely Panda’s and Montserrat look the two up there early with Solid Foundation rolling forward. Speed looks genuine enough.

Likely market trend: Expectng Harto to start favourite due to his breeding and trials. Expecting Elegant Grace to drift.

Selections: 1-4-3-5

1.Montserrat ($3.4): Pulled up with cardiac arrythmia on debut. Two nice trials since. Trial times good. Started $4 on debut v Maggie Miss, Mo’s Crown etc.

4. Harto ($3.4): Mum More Strawberries was very good, half to Merovee. Closed off reallt well in recent trial after overracing early. Has closed off both trials to date.

3. Elegant Grace ($5.1): Went to front and won a recent Cessnock trial by 3L in OK time. Well held two trials last prep.

5. Solid Foundation ($11): Two trials jumped ok, closed off well 2nd at WF first trial and then given easy time when 5th latest trial. Rolls forward?

Other runners:

2. Southern Appeal ($11), 6. Absolutely Panda's ($44.3), 7. Petronilla ($88.5).

 

Race 2

Overview: Pretty even race. Cubed wanted further fresh and then stuck on solidly last start in a race where the form has stacked up (second horse won since). She rolls forward and should appreciate the extra trip. I think Tri Nations is the speck in the race if you can run on? (Check race 1). I thought he found the line well enough fresh and he is bred to appreciate further. Rockarosa and Moreno both have claims, while Zakat can’t be overlooked either.

Advice: Tough race. Tri Nations could be worth a speck at $20+ if they run on in race 1.

Confidence: 4/10.

Speed map: Bless You Toby could lead but Bravio, Cubed and maybe even Tri Nations can be handy. Speed looks even.

Likely market trend: Rockarosa will be popular I reckon.

Selections: 5-7-1-4

5. Cubed ($4.30): Wanted further fresh (in race run 2L quicker Cl1 off slower tempo) and then stuck on solidly last start 1100m when on pace favours (not far off time of B70 day despite much slower early tempo). 2nd horse won out of LS. 2 siblings won 1300-1400.

7. Rockarosa ($3.60):  Got back fresh and closed off in slow run race. Slowest 3 x 1200m races on day but tempo related. 3rd QL600 of day. 3 winners out of race (1st and 3rd both won since). Can park closer.

1. Moreno ($5): Jmped well went back, tempo against and closed off solidly first up. Overall race time same time as Cl2 on day (off slightly slower tempo).

4. Zakat ($5.80): Best of rest.

Other runners:

3. Bravio ($20.5), 8. Waihora Jewel ($28), 9. Seraph ($41), 10. Bless You Toby ($164).

Race 3

Overview: She has her fair share of weight but I just think High Shine might be a bit classy for these. Her fresh win last prep was very good and her trials have been pleasing. Vitesse looks to be settling better this time in and she looks the danger. I don’t like the wide gate with her because I reckon they will want cover to get her to relax. Black And Tan’s late splits last start were quicker than Alligator Blood (beaten a pimple in Caulfield Guineas) and she must also be respected.

Advice: High Shine to win.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Keiai Tsubaki and Vitesse look the on speed runners while High Shine should be just behind them. Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: Expecting High Shine to start favourite.

Selections:

1.High Shine ($2.50): Two soft trials. Won 2 of 3 last prep and had chance before a break. Solid races without getting carried away.

6. Vitesse ($3.90): Seems to be settloijg better this time in. Won a weak mdn before a break then strong late and just missed fresh when got cover and relaxed well enough.

4. Black And Tan ($8.50): Got home really well off slow tempo SC. Quivker L600 than Caul Guineas runner up Alligator Blood. Just OK prior to that. Gets back the query. First run Maher and Eustace, formerly with K Lees.

2. Kedah ($12): Best of rest.

Other runners:

3. Touch Of Mink ($30), 5. Keiai Tsubaki ($17), 9.My Maher ($20).

 

Race 4

Overview: Looks a raffle with a host of chances. They tend to share these staying races. Comments below.

Advice: Play wide if going early quaddie.

Confidence: 2/10.

Speed map: Breakdance, Maybach and Executive Chairman look the three on speed runners. Expect Maybach to lead. Tempo depends on whether he wants to roll or not.

Likely market trend: $4.60 about Breakdance looks unders. Expect him to drift a touch. Can win all the same.

Selections: 1-4-10-2

1.Executive Chairman ($5.60): Just missed two back when wide and working on strong speed and then went to town sat outside leader and was too good. Up the 2kg now and meets Kelvinside 2kg worse off as a result but can only run well again.

4. Maybach ($7.50): Got a soft lead last start but stuck on to win well. Won his past 2 and 2 of 6 overall and he is just progressive.2400m first tim + up 4.5kg (meets Bajan Gold 1.5kg worse off).

10. The Iron Maiden ($16): What a marvel she is. 10yo mare who puts in every week. Beat Exec Chairman two back but that horse worked hard mid race wide and then back to 1900m and ran on well despite not well suited. Prefers wet but racing well dry. Can’t say no. Gets a fair way back though.

2. Bajan Gold ($7.50): Blinkers 1s time. Just missed last start behind Maybach where speed wasn’t strong. Placed 2400m in England.He’s Imposing beaten 1L here and 2.3L behind Exec Chairman prior?

Other chances:

3. Breakdane ($7.50): Just seems short enough in an open race!

8. Loveseat ($8.50): made ground from back along inside two back and then got back and closed off LS to score off a slow tempo with good gaps through field. Overall figures just fair.3rd horse Canasta won a Cl1 by 3L since,

9. Kelvinside ($11): 1900 up to 2400m and just peaked late on the run LS when second to Executive Chairman. Gets a 2kg swing and will be fitter. Probably just has to settle further back.

5. Temprado ($16): made ground from back along inside two back and then got back and closed off LS to score off a slow tempo with good gaps through field. Overall figures just fair.3rd horse Canasta won a Cl1 by 3L since,

6. O'Princess ($20): Won four in a row and then freshened, missed start 3L and back in trip but closed off well. 3 of those 4 wins synthetic. Form around her just fair but deserves her chance here.

Other runners:

11. Notabadharada ($40), 12. Not A Biggie ($162).

 

Race 5

Overview: Zoushack (scratched) looks hard to beat here. He should have gone close at Moonee Valley last start and the race was run in similar figures to Loving Gaby on the day. The first and second horse were beaten less than 1.5 lengths behind subsequent Caulfield Guineas winner Super Seth the start prior! Tony’s Reward was a good winner fresh but had things to suit, while Paquirri is a chance if he can recapture old form but Zoushack should be hard to beat.

Advice: Open race with the scratching of fav now.

Confidence: 4/10.

Speed map: Calipari and Cardiff (if they want to) look the two leaders. Cardiff can really scoot along but they’ve been riding him more conservatively of late. Speed looks even.

Likely market trend: No opinion.

Selections: 2-3-7-1

2. Tony's Reward ($3.8): Trialled well and then got back and closed off well to score fresh in race run to suit swoopers. 7 subs st 1 pl out of race but gets Bowman. Yet to place 3 second up runs. Good track helps.

3. Cardiff ($4): Won a weak class 2 (5 subs st 1 pl) and then OK at Caulfield in fair race. Now 1100m- Wasn’t far away 1100 fresh.

7. Calipari ($8): ***I have a small share in this horse. Has early speed but a bit vulnerable late in is races. This looks a step up too.

1.Paquirri ($10): Always well back fresh, it was a good race he comes through. Winner beat Loving Gaby since but probably wants further and has been below best for a little while. Good run MM DAY.

Other chances:

8. Vincero ($9)

4. Katgully Red ($11)

Other runners:

 5. Supreme Polarity ($15).

 

Race 6

Overview: Romani Girl was dominant fresh and while she rises up sharply in trip I think she has the turn of foot necessary to beat these. She is short enough all the same. California Longbow is in for a really good prep over further and this is a stepping stone. He is classy enough to win this still but will be better over further. Pancho and Orcein both have claims, while this is the easiest race Master Ash has been in for a while but gee he has been disappointing.

Advice: Hard to tip against Romani Girl. Reckon California Longbow will be the horse to tae out of the race though.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Fabricator and Master Ash look the two on pace runners. Speed doesn’t look that strong and that’s the concern with the fav.

Likely market trend: Romani Girl should dominate betting.

Selections: 4-5-7-3

4. Romani Girl ($2.4): - Strong late splits when returning a winner 1250m Cant. 4th in KG Classic last time in. Straight up to 1600m here but has won  1550m and has won second up? .7s quicker than mdn on day LS. Good figures although horses beat no stars?

5. California Longbow ($6.7): Really liked his return over 1400m when 3wnc and hampered in str before 2nd QL200 of the race. Looks in for a really good prep over2000m and beyond and a chance tp win this on the way through. Drops 4kg.

7. Pancho ($6): Did enough fresh and just peaked on the run late. Can he settle closer low draw? Drops 3.5kg/ Stakes placed at a mile last prep.

3. Orcein ($9.5): Good return, got back closed off with best late splits in race. Won second up 1700m Flem last prep defeating Vow and Declare. Entitled to run on with slowish speed up front. Winner won again since.

Other runners:

1. Mr Reckless ($14.3), 2. Master Ash ($23.2), 6. Fabricator ($38.6), 8. Gentleman Max ($57.8).

 

Race 7

Overview: Not much between the top two but I think Invinciano is the bet at the odds. I concede she hasn’t beaten much but she has all the upside in the world. Blazing Miss has trialled well enough and should be up on speed and kicking. Taken Everything was too bad to be true fresh and gets the blinkers on, while Oxford Angel looks next best.

Advice: Invinciano the value.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Oxford Angel and Blazing Miss look the two on speed runners. Invinciano should be behind them. Speed looks even.

Likely market trend: Not sure which was this go but I reckon the top two should be closer together than $3.70 (BM) and $4.60 (Invinciano).

Selections:

2. Invinciano ($3.60): Resuming- Two soft trials. Won two straight before a break in OK figures (mdn winner 2L slower other mdn on day but mainly tempo). 4 winners out of mdn win, 0 winners 1pl 7 st latest win.

6. Blazing Miss ($3.80): Two trials- Pushed along latest to score in solid time. 1st one second to Easy Eddie. Led and caught late v Exceedance and then narrowly won mdn. Out the back and held up before a break. Capable in a race like this.

4. Taken Everything ($9): Blinkers 1st time, winkers off. 4 wide but very disapp first up. Trialled well since. Won before a break but set up for. Wide gate, rolls forward blinkers on?

9. Oxford Angel ($12): Struggled in the heavy and then led and caught in last stride last start. Now up to 1100m. Wins have been at 11-1200. 10 runs since last win. Can run cheeky race from front as rivals aren’t very strong.

Other runners:

1. Valree ($17), 3. Super Cyclone ($17), 5. Martinique ($12), 7. Ottamae ($20, 11. Our Revenue ($30).

 

*** Betting strategies and other bets for day below Melbourne Cup preview

Melbourne Cup

 Brad Davidson's selections:

1st: 19. Constantinople (hardest to beat)

2nd: 13. Raymond Tusk (best roughie!)

3rd: 23.Vow And Declare

4th: 12.Prince Of Arran

 

50 unit betting strategy for Melbourne Cup (***more plays for strategies after Cup preview- scroll to bottom of page***)

15 unit win no.19. Constantinople at $9.50

10 unit win no.13. Raymond Tusk at $21

5 unit win no.23 Vow And Declare at $12

20 unit trifecta (5.55%)- 1st: 12,13,19,23. 2nd: 4,5,8,11,12,13,14,18,19,20,23. 3rd: 4,5,8,11,12,13,14,18,19,20,23.

 

19-13-23-12

19. Constantinople- Has all the right form. 2nd to Logician two back who is unbeaten and won the G1 St Leger in England next start by a big space (defeating Il Paradiso 5L in the process). Logician looks an out and out star. Constaninople beat home Norway in that race  comfortably and Norway has won a G3 in good fashion since. Constantinople’s Caulfield Cup run was the best in the race (no luck at all) and he looks a big track horse. 52.5kg. His form three back ties in as well. He was beaten .3L by Nayef Road and Nayef Road has since beaten Il Paradiso home by 3L to frank the form. The big query is he is very raw, overraces and can do plenty wrong and he might throw it away and wander about in the straught but on form and weight he looks the horse to beat for mine.

13.Raymond Tusk- Didn’t like him at first glance but warming to him here. His run in the Ebor was very good and he just had no luck at all there with the 61kg too. Had to go right back from the gate, held up most of the straight but was good late. The Ascot Gold Cup two back was too far for him, three back he stuck on behind Crystal Ocean giving him weight and Crystal Ocean went on to run a close second to Enable after that. He also has a strong second behind De Ex Bee (very good stayer) this trip four back giving that horse weight and he just looks a stayer. Think he has beaten the handicapper with 54kg (meets Mustajeer 2.5kg better off from Ebor, also meets Prince Of Arran .5kg better off for beating him comfortably in that race) and the key is he draws a gate to settle much closer.

23.Vow And Declare- Barrier is sticky but liked the way he never shirked the task in Caulfield Cup. Only run at 3000m last prep was arrogant in strong run Tatt’s Cup (much weaker than this). Looks a real stayer. 52kg, can only run well with luck from draw.

12.A Prince Of Arran- Just loves it in Aus. Beaten by The Chosen One two back which is a worry but Geelong Cup win was in very strong time and he did all the work up on speed. Ran a blinder in this race last year. Can only run well again. Meets Cross Counter 5.5kg better off from Cup last year.

Other chances:

11.Finche- Super effort in the Turnbull two back where just missed and then brave in Caulfield Cup where clearly best of on pacers in strong run race and he was wide no cover for a lot of it too. 4th in this race last year and will stay all day. He needs to build momentum and can’t be held up which is the question but I would be shocked if he didn’t finish top 8.

20.Il Paradiso- No match The Logician latest and OK behind Stradavarius prior but Stradivarius was toying with them. Went across the line with De Ex Bee there and that horse has strong form around Cross Counter, Master Of Reality and beat Raymond Tusk (He got 5,5kg off Dee Ex Bee that day where Raymond Tusk had to give him weight when they met!). Won by 12L Curragh three back but beat little there so not reading into that. Gets in light, looks a bit one paced for mine but has to go in.

18. Surprise Baby- Hasn’t beaten much but just keeps going to a new level. 2nd and 3rd out of Bart Cummings (which he won) both well held since in Geelong Cup and Caul Cup the concern. Has all the upside, has a turn of foot, has Flemington form and should stay.

8.Mustajeer-Won the Ebor and Run in the Caulfield Cup was solid enough for this. Should stay, draws well, Can’t say no although have a few ahead of him.

5.Southern France: Beat Cross Counter and Master Of Reality last start and also defeated Master Of Reality comfortably when winning the Irish St Leger trial. Beaten 9L at his last 3200m run where well held by Cross Counter. Form lines read OK. Plaace chance?

4. Mirage Dancer- Good in C Cup and can’t overlook. Yet to go 3200m but he was strong enough on line in C Cup for mine and shapes a rough place hope here.

14. Downdraft-Fair in MV Cup and then too good in Hotham albeit against much inferior opposition. Drops in weight and can’t rule out off big win on Saturday. Was peaking on line though?

22.The Chosen One- Beat Prince Of Arran in Herbert Power three back, run in Caulfield Cup was solid and then too keen latest. Blinkers off. Been a bit disappointing last few but run three back would give him a rough chance,

Other runners:

1.Cross Counter- Last year’s winner who did a bit wrong last start when finishing behind Southern France in Irish St Leger. Meets SF 2kg worse off here. Not sure he can win with the weight this year? To carry 6.5kg more than last year? That’s a lot! Loves it here though but too much weight for mine though.

2.Mer De Glace- Won his past 6 starts. First crack beyond 2400m. Up to 56kg after 1kg penalty. Runs the trip he goes close but I’m not sure he will. I’m taking him on simply from staying perspective. Also reckon if track is soft it could play against him, Could be totally wrong here but taking him on at the price of $6.50.

3. Master Of Reality- Really good in the Ascot Gold Cup v Stradivarius at 4000m but form either side fair looks a bit one paced for me.

6. Hunting Horn- Won the MV Cup and Downdraft franked that with good win in Hotham. Still comes across with just fair credentials?

7. Latrobe- Latrobe- Disappointing in Irish St Leger- Prior to that won and then three back just outstayed by Twilight Payment. Not going well enough for mine.

9. Rostropovich- Ran really well in this race last year for fifth and has been building. Latest was luckless in C Cup when working mid race in strong run race and tiring late. Would still need to improve but at least stays.

10. Twilight Payment- Twilight Payment- Disapp LS but outstayed Latrobe two back. Not far off Mustajeer and Master Of Reality prior. Not hopeless at odds.

15. Magic Wand- OK in Cox Plate. Won 2/19. Hard to have for mine. 3200m looks a risk.

16. Neufbosc- Just not going well enough.

17. Sound- Copped nasty check in Caulfield Cup but was struggling. Overraces badly and would need to lift.

21. Steel Prince- Does like Flemington but hard to have off form this prep.

24. Youngstar- Ran sixth in this race last year. Should stay but surprised if she is going well enough to place. Good top 10 chance though.

 

Other bets

Flemington Race 10 no.6 Betcha Flying $5.50

Has been heavily supported already ($9-$5.50). Should have won in Sydney last start and she draws a gate to park closer here. She will love the big Flemington straight and should be very strong at the finish here.

Randwick Kensington

Race 6 no.3 High Mist $9.50 (save on favourite no.5 Statuesquely $3)

Had to go right back but I loved the way he found the line first-up at Warwick Farm off a strong trial prior too. He clocked the 4th quickest last 200m of the day there (the rest in his range were 1000m races v 1400m race). He can park closer here and did win second up at this track and distance two preps back. Happy to save on the favourite Statuesquely meaning we don’t lose on the race if she wins. She gets a soft lead here and will be hard to run down. I just have to play at the price re High Mist.

 

Normal strategy (95 units)

Flemington

Race 7 no.19. Constantinople 15 unit win at $9.50

Race 7 no.13. Raymond Tusk 10 unit win at $21

Race 7 no.23 Vow And Declare 5 unit win at $12

20 unit Melbourne Cup trifecta (5.55%)- 1st: 12,13,19,23. 2nd: 4,5,8,11,12,13,14,18,19,20,23. 3rd: 4,5,8,11,12,13,14,18,19,20,23.

Race 10 no.6 Betcha Flying 15 unit win at $5.50

Randwick Kensington

Race 6 no.3 High Mist 20 unit win at $9.50

Race 6 no.5 Statuesquely 10 unit win at $3

Results: -449.6 units, (-9.2%POT, 4911 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (2.25 units)

Flemington

Race 7 no.19. Constantinople 0.5 unit win at $9.50

Race 7 no.13. Raymond Tusk 0.25 unit win at $21

Race 7 no.23 Vow And Declare 0.25 unit win at $12

Race 10 no.6 Betcha Flying 0.5 unit win at $5.50

Randwick Kensington

Race 6 no.3 High Mist 0.5 unit win at $9.50

Race 6 no.5 Statuesquely 0.25 unit win at $3

Results: -2.75 units (2.75 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

 

 

 

Race 8

Overview: Leaning to Great Danger who just overdid it up on speed last start. Interesting move to throw the blinkers on but happy to be with him. Full Recognition wasn’t on the best part of the track last start but he should get a good run here and also has claims. Handfast and Murillo also have claims.  

Advice: Leaning to Great Danger.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Full Recognition and Great Danger look the two on pace runners.

Likely market trend: No comment.

Selections: 9-10-11-2

9. Great Danger ($4.1): Rolls forward. No star but knocking on the door. Went too quick last start and gave a good kick. Soft time on speed prior and kicked again. 1st and 2nd last start (he was third) placed in stronger grade since.

10. Full Recognition ($4.1): Won well fresh, then too wet, latest wrong part of track (middle was best and he was on fence) when dashed through and peaked late. Draws well again and drops in weight. Should box seat and get every chance.

11. Handfast ($14.9): Really turned the corner last few starts after a long time without a win. QL400 and 200m splits of the day two back. Ran on well again LS. Form around him not great, guess he goes back?
2. Murillo ($10.4): Back from Sat grade- Three runs just been fair this prep. Not far off Baller two back and too far back latest. Gets chance in midweek grade but has been overrated for mine. 2 winners from 36 subs starters out of 3 races he has been in this prep.

Other runners:

1. Brazen ($26.3), 4. Coys ($52.5), 5. Stryke Rock ($17.3), 6. Viceroy ($21), 7. Adana ($8.6), 8. Mangione ($70), 12. Ruthless Agent ($26.3).



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