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Brad Davidson preview Randwick Kensington December 18

BRAD DAVIDSON PREVIEW RANDWICK KENSINGTON DECEMBER 18 Oct 24 2019

Meeting: Randwick Kensington Jan 4

Best value:

Race 2 no.1 Greenspan $10 (rated $8.10, confidence 6/10)

I thought Greenspan was over the odds here off the last start win where he sat off them and showed a good turn of speed to score. He was good prior to that as well and the step up to 1400m is a natural progression.

Race 6 no.5 Celer $7.50 (rated $6.40, confidence 6/10)

Slow out fresh and got home strongly and then settled midfield, they walked early and he flashed late to just miss.  Race was run 5L slower Gosf Guineas but that was off a 8L quicker section to 600m. Extra 100m suits and he loos ready now. No knock on fav.

Expected firmers:

Expected drifters:

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

 

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less.

 

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy (95 units)

Race 2 no.1 Greenspan 20 unit win at $9.50 and 20 unit place at $3.10

Race 4 no.9 Invincible Kiss 1 unit win at $34 and 4 unit place at $5

Race 6 no.5 Celer 20 unit win at $7.50

Race 9 no.11 Sophiella 10 unit win at $7

10 unit early quaddie (20.83%, starts r2): 1st leg; 1,2,6. 2nd leg: 3,1. 3rd leg: 2,9. 4th leg: 4,6,2,3.

10 unit quaddie (22.22%, starts r6): 1st leg: 5,9,3,7,6. 2nd: 9,4,2. 3rd leg: 3. 4th leg: 11,6,1.

Results: -938 units (-12.6% POT, 7416 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Long game strategy (2.1 units)

Race 2 no.1 Greenspan 0.5 unit win at $9.50 and 0.5 unit place at $3.10

Race 4 no.9 Invincible Kiss 0.1 unit win at $34 and 0.25 unit place at $5

Race 6 no.5 Celer 0.5 unit win at $7.50

Race 9 no.11 Sophiella 0.25 unit win at $7

Results: -10.9 units (-14.5% POT, 75 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Rail: True, good track.

History of track bias:

5/01/2019         Kens      True      G3         Lanes no issue but fairly on pace (most tempo though?). Only one winner further back 4th.

6/03/2019         Kens      True      g4          Pretty fair track. Didn’t want to be too far back and I don't think hard fence was best place

4/05/2019         Kens      True      S5/G4   Fair track

17/08/2019       Kens      True      g4          Pretty fair track- reckon lanes 1-2 sl inferior but prety faor

2/10/2019         Kens      TRUE     G4         Run on middle (3-4+ off fence)

5/11/2019         Kens      True      G4         Fair track

6/12/2019         Kenso    TRUE     G4         Up and in- Fence adv and hard to make ground out wide, could make ground first 2 lanes           

Assessment: Inside and close to speed the place to be last time in this rail position but generally pretty fair this rail position. Track has been very fair for some time.

Wind: Fresh ENE/ NE. Headwind in home straight.

Race 1

Overview: Philizzy comes through a decent trial and she closed off nicely to be two lengths off Hungry Heart under little pressure. Hinchbeast, Osamu and Remorseless are all capable in a tricky race to kick off the day.

Advice: Late betting key here. Leaning to Hungry Heart.

Confidence: 5/10

Speed map: Hinchbeast should lead with Formentera handy. Speed should be genuine.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections:  11-1-4-5

11. hilizzy- Closed off solidly only trial behind Hungry Heart- Should finish off solidly but may get back?

1.Hinchbeast- Went hard enough in front and battled on OK LS. Had chance prior when ridden touch quieter. Just depends how good these first starters are?

4.Osamu- Two trials- Won the first under little pressure (time just fair) and second one given easy time. Betting?

5.Remorseless- Well held on debut but it was a good race-Flattened out OK late.

Race 2

Overview: I thought Greenspan was over the odds here off the last start win where he sat off them and showed a good turn of speed to score. He was good prior to that as well and the step up to 1400m is a natural progression. Irish Songs should find this easier than benchmark grade of late and just needs to run out the 1400m now. Jawwaal comes back as a gelding and did bump into subsequent Highway winner Sneak Preview before a break. Acquittal never settled when leading last start but looks best of the rest.

Advice: Greenspan to win.

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map: Jawwaal and Peyton Place look the most likely leaders as I do expect Acquittal to be ridden a touch quieter. Spee should be solid enough still.

Likely market trend: Expecting Greenspan to firm. Selections:

Selections:

1.Greenspan ($8.1): Good late two back and then too good latest off speed (although second horse worked on speed). 1400m natural progression now0 pinches ground.

2.Irish Songs ($5.5): Got back and closed off OK on night hard to do so LS. By Shamus Award so 1400m should suit. Well beaten only run 1400m but led that day?

6. Jawwaal ($5.1): Freshened- gelded since LS. Beat all bar subs Hway winner Sneak Preview last start- First two gapped rest. Solid with 61.5kg prior in race that produced 3 winners.

8. Acquittal ($10.8): Led last start and didn’t settle at all. What’s that taken out of him? Runs prior were solid without threatening. 1800 back to 1400m. Marquand on.

Other runners:

3. Peyton Place ($9.3), 4. Pauldron ($#DIV/0!), 5. Sennacherib ($22), 7. Eurosay ($13.2), 9. Who's Shout ($13.2), 10. Ave ($33.4), 11. Denmiss ($22), 12. Yu Long Sheng Hui ($66.8), 13. Badge Of Gameness ($133.6), 14. Toomai ($#DIV/0!), 15. Dizzy Dawn ($#DIV/0!), 16. Young Heart ($#DIV/0!), 17. Upper HOUSE ($#DIV/0!), 18. Moss The Boss ($#DIV/0!), 19. Metralla ($#DIV/0!), 20. Roseirro ($#DIV/0!), 21. 0 ($#DIV/0!), 22. 0 ($#DIV/0!), 23. ($), 24. ($)

 

Race 3

Overview: Happy to lean the way of Geo here at the better odds and I loved the way he closed off to win his maiden last start after being held up. He will be better for that and has upside. Discharged has the class edge here and he comes through a strong race last start. He has earnt the weight. Cock Match will roll along on speed and give a kick, while Satin Socks is capable and even Trengganu at odds has claims.

Advice: Geo from Discharged.

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map: Stablemates Cock Match and Discharge look the two leaders here and tempo looks even.

Likely market trend: Expect support to come for both Discharged and Geo.

Selections: 3-1-2-9

3. Geo ($4.8): knocked up fresh and then held up until 200m and was strong late to win mdn latest-11.40 L200 was 2nd quickest of day- Runs well with Nash on.

1. Discharged ($4.3): Solid win fresh working early then not far off in two solid races. Worked early LS- 34.4 FIRST 600M- stuck on OK- 2ND AND 3RD BOTH won out of race two back and he ran fourth (Hightail and Leviathan).

2. Cock Match ($9.6): Worked hard early and stuck on OK latest.  Knocking on door bu this looks a bit hard.

9. Satin Socks ($8.9): Race set up but ran on well fresh to run second to subs city winner Adelong- QL600 of day and 2nd QL200 of day. Beat Run For Glory home when they clashed last prep and looks to have developed. Consider.

Other chances:

6. Arousal ($7.8): Good from back two back and then settled forward and far too good Canterbury- Ran quicker time other mdn won by Hellbenders on night (3rd horse almost beat Rari since). Just map awkard here? Do they go back? Won’t lead.

Other runners:

4. Belitsa ($21), 5. Thanks To You ($12.6), 7. Run For Glory ($63.9), 8. Howra ($63.9), 10. Trengganu ($18), 11. Lubuk ($#DIV/0!), 12. Peloso Lass ($#DIV/0!), 13. Oh So Hot ($#DIV/0!), 14. Hiroko ($#DIV/0!), 15. Absolute Treat ($#DIV/0!), 16. Katie Did It ($#DIV/0!), 17. Legend Of Oz ($#DIV/0!), 18. Taldora Miss ($#DIV/0!), 19. Smooth Factor ($#DIV/0!), 20. 0 ($#DIV/0!), 21. 0 ($#DIV/0!), 22. 0 ($#DIV/0!), 23. ($), 24. ($)

 

Race 4

Overview: Hard to go past the unbeaten Adelong and he burnt the candle both ends to win two back and then ran solid time when winning last start. He has a bit of company up on speed here but looks the horse to beat. Spiritual Pursuit prefers a wet track but should improve second up all the same. I thought Lashes was a bit short in the market. She has claims but I get the feeling off the trials they might ride her off the speed here and I think she is being priced a touch on potential at $3.60.

Advice: Adelong to win.

Confidence: 7/10

Speed map: Enfleurage and Adelong look the two leaders with Worldly Pleasure pushing forward as well. Speed should be even.

Likely market trend: Expecting Adelong to start a firm favourite.

Selections: 2-1-7-9

2. Adelong ($2.3): 3/3- Absorbed pressure to score two back and then soft lead but zipped home good figures latest. 2-3L quicker other B70 on day off slower tempo.

 

1. Spiritual Pursuit ($8.1): Got back and closed off OK firt up without raving about0 Another tricky draw? Go bac> Speed looks solid. Prefer wet ground>

7. Lashes ($5.7): Had a good prep two campaigns ago, then no match Sir Elton fresh last prep and then wnc but disapp WF before break. Two soft trials- Riding quiet in the trials? Tactics here?

9. Invincible Kiss ($21.1): Having a really good prep- Held up until 150-200m mark and still too good. Tme narrowly quicker than mdn but slower L600. Desserves crack at this level.

Other runners:

3. Worldly Pleasure ($20.1), 5. Buckin' Beauty ($33.4), 6. Jetgirl ($66.8), 8. Enfleurage ($9.9).

 

Race 5

Overview: These staying races are always tricky and there isn’t a great deal between them. I thought Guise was holding House Of Cartier and Master Shuhood last start and she looks ready for the rise to 2400m now. Quality Seeker is coming out of a weaker form line for mine but he has that 2400m form so that has to be respected here. House Of Cartier, Master Shuhood, Dark Pearl and Kiss The Bride are all capable of winning this.

Advice: Leaning to Guise.

Confidence: 5/10

Speed map: Guise could roll forward and take it up from the low draw with Kiss The Bride likely to roll forward. Should be a tactical battle.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections:

4. Guise ($4.5): Tough effort last start. Was holding MS and HOC late. First time 2400m but placed 2200m.

6. Quality Seeker ($5.4): Bolted in three back, fair two back and too good latest after being held up and still too good. Different grade here but has 2400m form.

2. House Of Cartier ($6): Winkers 1st time. Too bad to be true two starts back, then got back off strong tempo loomed and just peaked late. 2400m first time.

3. Master Shuhood ($8): - Got back and closed off well LS and closed off well. Nothing between him and HOC there. Seems to be settling better with the blinkers off (off last 3 st).

Other runners:

1. Kiliminjaro ($#DIV/0!), 5. Artarmon ($24.7), 7. Our Gravano ($33), 8. Dark Pearl ($12.2), 9. Kiss The Bride ($12.2), 10. Lavish Rose ($49.5), 11. Dance Away ($24.7).

 

Race 6

Overview: I thought Celer was generously priced at $7.50 and the tempo was against him last start. He closed off well all the same and looks ready for this extra trip. He’s A Hotshot has been three wide without cover at his past two runs and I don’t think the drop back in trip helped last start. He gets his chance here. Think Free comes out of a good race fresh and will strip fitter, while Coterie was slow to recover and agitated with the blinkers on last start. He will be better suited here.

Advice: Celer to win.

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map: He’s A Hotshot, Coterie and Isorich roll forward. Speed looks even.

Likely market trend: Expecting Celer and He’s A Hotshot to have fans.

Selections: 5-9-3-7

5. Celer ($6.4): Slow out fresh and got home strongly and then settled midfield, they walked early and he flashed late to just miss.  5L slower Gosf Guineas but that was off a 8L quicer section to 600m. Ready now.

9. He's A Hotshot ($3.8): 3WNC in two runs- brave v Burning Crown in good rating race and then back from 1200-1100 wide again and stuck on in average rating race. Out to 1300m big ket here, drops considerably in weight and should get nice run on speed.

3. Think Free ($8.1): Well held prep but stronger racw than this. Did beat Handspun last prep. Tricky gate, McDonald on? 2nd and 3rd won since out of last race. Fitter. Good second up record,

7. Coterie ($8.1): Slow to recover and agitated with blinkers on LS. Blinkers off, tongue tie on. Narrowly beaten by He’s A Hotshot prior but meets that horse 2.5kg better off. Can run well.

Other chances:

6. Jen Rules ($6.4): OK two back and then too good latest when set up for and finished well. 10 subs st 1 winner out of race so bit of a concern. Kept fresh.

Other runners:

1. Star Reflection ($11.5), 2. Burradoo ($71.1), 4. Drachenfels ($35.6), 8. Isorich ($23.4),

 

 

Race 7

Overview: They haven’t missed Mushaireb in early markets but he didn’t have a lot of luck last start and he should be able to find the front from the inside draw. He drops 9kg here and the drop back in trip is no negative either. He just needs to relax in the run or at least get into a rhythm. New Universe was wide first-up but still a tad disappointing. He is a hard horse to catch sometimes but can reel off a big sectional on his day. Sir Plush didn’t run out 2000m last start and he split subsequent winners Niccanova and The Candy Man prior in this distance range,

Advice: Leaning to Mushaireb but short enough. New Universe could get out to a silly price on race day. Confidence:

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map: Musharieb should hold the front from the low draw with Reflectivity up there as well. Mushaireb can get rolling so speed should at least be even.

Likely market trend: Expecting Mushaireb to start a firm fav. Sir Plush should have admirers too.

Selections: 9-4-2-8

9. Mushaireb ($3.4): Beaten 2L in a Villiers and then up in trip and just OK latest but didn’t have a lot of room- jockey didn’t feel was going that well and felt step up in trip should suit. Back in trip but should dictate- drops 9kg, lose nothing with King.

4. New Universe ($6.7): WNC and a bit disapp fresh but they did walk and zip home late. Won twice second up and is a horse that can pull out a monster L600. Jmac on.

2. Sir Plush ($6): - Didn’t run out 2000m latest. Good prior in good rating race mile Brisbane where split subs winner Niccanova and subs 2 time winner The Cnady Man. Back in trip helps. Run in Gong ok after messing up start.

8. Reflectivity ($7.1): Was going just OK and then back in grade and saluted LS- Baanone should have won and 2nd/3rd and 5th all well held since (3rd beaten by Mr Garcia). Drops 8.5 kg though

Other runners:

1.Admire Robson ($12.8),, 6. Gresham ($16.5), 7. Roman Son ($9.5).

Race 8

Overview: Word For Word was just held up approaching the turn last start and that was the difference between winning and losing. The step up in trip will suit and she will go close. Asharani did beat Word For Word last start and I don’t see the extra trip being any concern (she should have won at 1550m last prep). I like the way Grand Crown won two back (good late splits) and he was held up last start and found the line well. Cinquedea also has claims.

Advice: Leaning to Word For Word but she is well found.

Confidence: 7/10

Speed map: Mercurial Lad should lead and he is the type that should roll along at a strong tempo.

Likely market trend: Word For Word starts a popular short priced fav.

Selections: 3-4-7-10

3. Word For Word ($1.9): No luck fresh and then boxed up on turn, bumping dual early in straight and closed off to just miss. 1.5kg swing on Asharani, maps well and extra trip suits.

4. Cinquedea ($4.6): Went back, wide and off the track with the big weight last start and forgivable- Ran same overall time as Asharani. WFW on day but off 4-6L quicker tempo. Draws well, gets weight relief and distance seems OK.

7. Above And Beyond ($12.1): 3L quicker than time Asharani, WFW produced LS but tempo related. More aggressive tactics helped there. First ti,e 1550m.

10. Baanone ($15.1): Should have won two back and then got back and closed off well in slow run race last start. Stronger here but should roll and he is going well enough.

Other runners:

1. Notio ($30.6), 6. Mercurial Lad ($61.3), 8. All But Gone ($40.8), 11. Destiny's Hero ($61.3).

Race 9

Overview: Sophiella clocked some strong splits to score last start and just has to repeat that now.  I like the freshen up for November Man and I was just hoping he would be a little bit wider in the market.. He runs well with Nash aboard. Royal Witness has class on his side but has drawn wide.

Advice: Sophiella the value after scratchings.

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map: A few on pace runners have been scratched but speed still looks solid with Rare Episode, Happy Mo, Clear The Beach and Royal Witness all up there.

Likely market trend: Prety open this.

Selections: 11-6-1-3

11. Sophiella ($6.2): Was just going fairly and then off speed and produced strong L600 (2nd QL600 of the day) to score latest. Chance if she can reproduce.

6. November Man ($4.8): Disapp last couple down south- Back to Sydney- likes it here Kenso- 1000m suits off a two month freshen-Nash on. 4 winners out of last win here- form around Royal Witness here.

1. Royal Witness ($4.8): Nice soft trial leading in- Loves this track- 5 st-4 wins- All 5 wins at 1000m as well. Won t/d first up two preps back- just draws out speed inside?

3. Rare Episode ($8.6): Travelled wide in two runs this prep but just fair all the same. Lacking that finish L200.

 

Other runners:

2. Ghostly ($9.8), 4. Clear The Beach ($8.6), 12. Twirling Moss ($23.2), 13. Patriot ($34.8), 14. Happy Mo ($69.5).



Brad Davidson preview Randwick Kensington December 18 - Brad Davidson preview Randwick Kensington December 18

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