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Brad Davidson preview Hawkesbury October 30

BRAD DAVIDSON PREVIEW HAWKESBURY OCTOBER 30 Oct 28 2019

The long game strategy

Based on a 100 unit betting bank. What is a unit? Whatever your punting bank is divided by 100. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 6 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels. We will start this service again on November 1.

 

 

Meeting: Hawkesbury

Best play: *** Prices for best bets are pre scratchings- Deductions apply.***

Race 8 no.1 Axe $5.50 locked in Monday night (rated $4.20, confidence 7/10)

Pulled up with cardiac arrythmia on debut so completely forget that run. Trials either side have been very pleasing. Loved his trial since his first-up forgive run and he seems to have a really nice action. Good speed here and he can have last say.

Best value:

Race 5 no.8 Shadow Girl $6 (rated $5.50, confidence 6/10)

I think the value here is Shadow Girl and she found the line well fresh in inferior ground in a strong race. The second and fourth horse have both won since, the winner has been Group 2 placed and the 7th placegetter has been stakes placed.

Best roughie

Race 7 no.5 Disgraceful $11 (rated $9.60, confidence 5/10)

Happy to have a little speck at Disgraceful here. First-up the 1100m might be a tad sharp but if he runs up to his fresh run behind Tough Larry last prep then he is right in this (best late splits of the day). Little Al looks the horse to beat and could easily save there if you like.

Expected firmers:

Expected drifters:

Race 1 no.1 Aeecee Vinco $4.40 (looks skinny here, reckon he drifts)

Race 2 no.7 Kariba $7 (done nothing yet to warrant being single figures)

Race 6 no.2 Golwen $3.60 (just looks too short)

Race 8 no.11 She’s Smart $6.50 (comes through a race run 2.6s slower or about 15.5 lengths slower than other 1000m race on day)

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

 

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less.

 

The long game strategy

Based on a 100 unit betting bank. What is a unit? Whatever your punting bank is divided by 100. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 6 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels. We will start this service again on November 1.

 

Normal strategy (65 units)

Race 5 no.8 Shadow Girl 15 unit win at $6

Race 7 no.5 Disgraceful 10 unit win at $11

Race 8 no.1 Axe 25 unit win at $5.50 (locked in Monday)

15 unit main quaddie (23.4%): 1st leg: 3,8. 2nd leg: 1,7. 3rd leg: 1,3,5,8. 4th leg: 1,4,6,7. 

Results: -297 units, (-6.2%POT, 4746 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy  (1.75 units)

Race 5 no.8 Shadow Girl 0.5 unit win at $6

Race 7 no.5 Disgraceful 0.25 unit win at $11

Race 8 no.1 Axe 1 unit win at $5.50 (locked in Monday)

Results: +6.6 unit profit, (4.7%POT, 139.55 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Rail position: No data for Hawkesbury rail out 2m.

Wind: Gentle.

 

Race 1

Overview: Hard to go past Brazenpine and she lost the race on protest last start but lost no admirers. She beat a handy horse prior to that. Ariege looks the daner and the horse that beat her last start has only been beaten .6L in a Saturday city race since. Cassy’s Sister should lead and give them something to catch as well.

Advice: Brazenpine the horse to beat but no value at $2.90.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Cassy’s Sister leads with Aeecee Vinco, Upper East Side and potentially Brazenpine prominent. Speed looks solid.

Likely market trend: Ariege should firm from $4.80 but Brazenpine starts fav. Expect Aeecee Vinco to drift considerably from $4.40.

Selections: 3-2-4-5

3. Brazenpine ($3.2): Set up for and got dream run but arrogant win at Gosford two back in good figures (3rd horse Peak won well since, 2ND horse On Her Word had form around Haut Brion Her and WImlah last prep). Lost latest on protest but put nice gap on rest and race was 2.6s or aout 15-16 lengths quicker than mdn on day (mainly all L600).

2. Ariege ($4.5): Won B66 in good fashion at Goulburn (almost 6L quicker than mdn- all L600) and second horse there beaten 2L in Listed race at Geeloing since. Brave behind Cuban Royale (beaten .6L in Saturday city race since) LS. Time was slower than mdn on day but tempo related. Placed both runs here.

4. Cassy's Sister ($4.5): Chased home talented Soul Soldier fresh (only 2L slower Traumatised on day and 3rd/5th won since) and then led and far too good latest in over time more than 6L quicker mdn on day (6th horse since won Gunnedah Cl1). Leads and should be hard to catch.

5. Upper East Side ($9.2): Not much between her and Cassy’s Sister two back. Has won Mbrook since when 6L quicker than mdn on day (mainly tempo related). 3rd horse there has won well at Scone since.

Against:

 1. Aeecee Vinco ($12.3): Far too short as $4 chance. Won mdn Goulburn first u avg figures and 2nd,3rd,4th and 6th all beaten in country since. Needs to go to another level

Other runners:

6. Estrado ($16.5).

 

Race 2

Overview: Not a lot between Switched and Super Oasis here. Switched has the better form lines from last prep (Funstar form!) and the lead up trials have been solid. The race revolved around how much she has developed from last prep. Super Oasis was good against the pattern last start and runs on, while Glamour Cat has Reelem In Ruby form and also must be respected.

Advice: Not much between Switched and Super Oasis. Market?

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Glamour Cat and Switched look the two on pace runners. Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 2-3-1-5

2. Switched ($3.3): Two soft trials coming in. Bolted in debut, found one better Rwick in good rating race but avg form since? Then bumped into two good horses in race where run quicker time than benchmark raes on day off slow tempo. Should sit outside lead.

3. Super Oasis ($3.3): Wide and overraced two back and then good against pattern when hard to make ground and out wide LS. 2ND AND 7TH out of race won since. Gets another chance. Settled better LS.

1. Glamour Cat ($5.6): Soft trial in quick heat leading in. Won on debut in OK figures (2L slower benchmark race on day) and then battled on well behind Reelem In Ruby in race which has produced 5 winners. Rolls forward. 59kg.

5. Sally's Day ($8.5): Won mdn in a canter fresh but they went very hard and set it up for her (2nd horse beaten three times in mdns since).Latest wide and overraced when well beaten by Segalas. Form ties in with SO.

Other chances:

Against:

7. Kariba ($28.7): Looks too short at $7. Two trials- Out back and pushed along in first one. Second one, on speed, keen and stuck on OK under no pressure. Won a weak mdn last prep but needs to lift.

Other runners:

4. Buckle Up Baby ($57.3), 6. Chelsea Reign ($21.5).

 

Race 3

Overview: Not much between the top three here in Proven Class, Vineyard and Californiafirebird. Proven Class should lead easily so I will lean towards that galloper but I wouldn’t want to be diving in at short odds all the same. Hard to line these up.

Advice: No real opinion here.

Confidence: 3/10

Speed map: Proven Class should get a soft lead with Vineyard prominent. Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 4-3-1-2

4. Proven Class ($2.9): 1300 up to 1880m, led and caught late by Tisane last start but battled on well. Went a bit too hard there. Parr on. 4th horse won since.

3. Vineyard ($4.7): Racing well. Won his past two in country. Latest 3L slower than Coonamble Cup on day. Runner up last two starts have both won since. Gets his chance here. First crack 2000m.

1. Californiafirebird ($5): Bias against three back, stuck on OK two back and then sit and sprint against latest where they went very slow early.

2. Poulton Le Sands ($7.4): Didn’t run out 2400m last start, OK off slow tempo prior. Back to 2000 here.

Other chances:

5. Head Up High ($18.2): Only Bottega had a quicker L200 two back and then race set up for last start and closed off OK. Out to 2000m. Failed 1800 last prep (no excuses in stewards report) but end of prep.

Other runners:

6. Trescha ($30.3), 7. Dress Rehearsal ($60.5)

Race 4

Overview: City Of Love looks very hard to beat here. I think she will drift to better odds though but she has th best form coming into this and maps well. The unknown is Nordic. Soft trial leading in, former Kiwi- market? Lavish Rose will appreciate the step up in trip and looks the other winning hope.

Advice: City Of Love the hardest to beat on program but short enough at odds on in early markets all the same.

Confidence: 7/10

Speed map: Asked To Leave and City Of Love look the two on pace runners. Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: Expect City Of Love to get out a little bit.

Selections: 2-1-6-5

2. City Of Love ($2.1): Loved the way she found the line fresh and then just missed latest when went to line with Aesop’s Fable (5 subs st 0 pl a concern out of that race). Ov time slower than mdn on day but tempo related so forgiving. AF beaten 6L in Listed race in Sydney since. Maps well, Clark on.

1. Nordic ($5.1): Soft trial leading in. Hard to assess those NZ form lines. Last win last prep (10 subs st 0 winners out of). 5L off The Chosen One reads ok. Market?

6. Lavish Rose ($6.5): Got back and closed off OK fresh although peaked late on the run. Won mdn at a mile last prep by a big space but beat nothing that day. Better for the run,

5. Silent Agenda ($10.8): Got home solidly last start but race was set up for and overall L600 was just fair. Stays at a mile now. That was a Cl1 this Cl2.

Other runners:

3. Asked To Leave ($16.4), 4. Spin Bowles ($44.1), 7. Tribuna ($66.1).

 

Race 5

Overview: I think the value here is Shadow Girl and she found the line well fresh in inferior ground in a strong race. The second and fourth horse have both won since, the winner has been Group 2 placed and the 7th placegetter has been stakes placed. Persan (blinkers on) finds a winnable race dropping back sharply in grade but doesn’t map well.

Advice: Shadow Girl the value at $6.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Speed up for grabs now with on pace runners scratched.

Likely market trend: Expect Shadow Girl to firm off debut effort.

Selections: 8-3-9-10

8. Shadow Girl ($2.7): Got back but found the line well fresh on inferior ground and after being held up for a little bit as well. 4 weeks between runs up in trip. 3-4L quicker benchmark race on day (Quicker out and quicker home there) and form has stacked up. 2nd/4th won since, winner G2 placed and 7th placegetter stakes placed in Brian Crowley. Berry on.

3. Persan ($2.6): blinkers 1st time. Back a long way in grade here. Was really good two back in Gloaming albeit they went hard. Outclassed Spring Champion. 2000m back to 1500- Maps tricky? But has the class.

9. Sky Diamonds ($7.4): OK at Goulburn and then got back off very strong speed and closed off latest but entitled to. Get a lime through Shaibanat- Beaten 1L by Shaibanat here who was beaten narrowly by Shadow Girl prior.

10. Zoumaze ($22.4): Comes through avg rating mdn and hard to have.

Other runners:

1. Amore Moderno ($33.5), 7. Chloebella Rose ($33.5), 

Race 6

Overview: I think Convinced is the best horse here and I like the way he found the line fresh. Tim Clark goes aboard and I would just love to know whether they go forward or back? With even luck, he does look hard to beat. Magnificently looks the danger and her overall time was quicker than Golwen’s over the same track and distance last start off a slower early tempo too. Nahab found the line very strongly against inferior opposition last start and must be respected.

Advice: Convinced on top I would just love to see a change of tactic to roll forward on Wednesday.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Magnificently should lead with Ellebeedee coming across. Does Convinced go forward or back?

Likely market trend: Expect Convinced to start favourite. Golwen should be a noticeable drifter from $3.60.

Selections: 1-7-8-2

1. Convinced ($3.1): Got back and found the line well fresh in race run to suit (winner has won again since). T Clark on now. Tactics from out wide? Beat a nice enough horse before a break last prep. Should appreciate 1400m.

7. Magnificently ($3.8): Too good first-up in OK rating race. 9 subs st 3 placings a concern. Latest solid effort when second to Famous. Overall time was .2s quicker than Golwen on day despite going 7L slower than that horse to 600. Beat Darling Point there (4 subs st 0 pl out of race though).

8. Nahab ($7.4): QL400 AND 200 of the day when overcoming a slow tempo to score at Canberra. Was just going fairly prior to that. uns on again but may start unders off how visually impressive last start win was. Time had some merit but entitled to run best late splits considering they walked early.

2. Golwen ($7): OK fresh and then too good heavy track latest small field. 2nd horse just going OK and 3rd horse beaten at Nowra since. Figures just OK too.

Other runners:

4. Ellebeedee ($28.3), 5. Golden Creek ($113), 6. Happy Hustler ($75), 9. Selective ($28.3).

 

Race 7

Overview: Happy to have a little speck at Disgraceful here. First-up the 1100m might be a tad sharp but if he runs up to his fresh run behind Tough Larry last prep then he is right in this (best late splits of the day). Little Al looks the horse to beat. He maps well, comes through the right races and comes back to 1100m. Dunatun loves Hawkesbury and could be the swooper.

Advice: Happy to speck Disgraceful. Little Al the horse to beat and could easily save there.

Confidence: 5/10

Speed map: Johnny Roo Boy looks your leader but Little Al and Quick Finance shouldn’t be far away. Speed looks even.

Likely market trend: Little Al to start a firm fav. Expect Disgraceful to firm tonight and then get back out on race day.

Selections: 5-3-1-8

5. Disgraceful ($8.8): Resuming no trials. Gets soft run behind the speed but needs the gaps. Fresh run last prep was good over 1000m when rushing home for second in quickest late splits of day. Apprentice on.

3. Little Al ($2.8): Not sure he ran out 1200m last start although form out of race good (winner won again since). Run prior was strong behind a city horse. Beat Burning Crown first-up who has run well since. Back to 1100m here, firmer track both positives.

1.Dunatun ($7.6): Nice trial leading in winning a heat at Hawkesbury in solid time. Has a solid fresh record and loves Hawkesbury. 3 of 4 wins here.

8. Johnny Roo Boy ($9.6): Chased tearaway leader and just missed last start in OK race. Went quick early. Rolls forward, gives them something to catch. 

Other chances:

4. Quick Finance ($9.6): Resuming no trials. First-up 1100m. Won mdn first up two preps back albeit 1300m. Will the 1100m be too sharp?

Other runners:

2. Charlie Chap ($14.5), 6. Coolgardie ($26.2),  9. Soul Revival ($14.5).

 

Race 8

Overview: Axe was the overs early here after pulling up with cardiac arrythmia fresh. His trial since was super and he sits off a strong speed here and can have last say. Respecting the Waterhouse/Bott first starter in Miss Spiteful and she has trialled up well leading. Dorothy Of Oz and Solid Foundation also have winning claims.

Advice: Value gone now but hopefully a few were able to secure $5.50 plus about Axe.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Good speed here with Miss Spiteful, Dorothy Of Oz, She’s Smart and Trapassi all up there. Looks to be a genuine tempo.

Likely market trend: Expecting Axe and Miss Spiteful to be the two popular.

Selections: 1-6-4-7

1.Axe ($3.8): Pulled up with cardiac arrythmia on debut forgive. Trial since was super albeit in slow time (overraced a touch). Just like his action. Sits off strong speed.

6. Miss Spiteful ($4.2): Two trials- Showed speed to lead first one and won well in solid time. Second one took a sit and got past Dorothy Of Oz late. Wide draw? Clark rode latest trial but rides Dorothy Of Oz?

4. Dorothy Of Oz ($6.8): Not far away first prep. Two trials, pushed along late in those and OK there in fair time when finishing just off placegetters. No blinkers trials and they go on race day. Clark on, just a bit of speed underneath?

7. Solid Foundation ($11.2): Not far away on debut in solid rating race (4L quicker than benchmark race on day and only 2L slower other benchmark race). $10-$15 there. Low draw, good weight, sits off strong speed.

Other runners:

3. Trapassi ($12.2), 5. Rigel ($24.6), 8. Stolen Jade ($24.6), 10. Nishka ($74.4), 11. She's Smart ($14.7), 12. Latina Beauty ($37.2).

 

 



Brad Davidson preview Hawkesbury October 30 - Brad Davidson preview Hawkesbury October 30

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