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 Melbourne Cup preview Brad Davidson

BRAD DAVIDSON PREVIEW MELBOURNE CUP 2019 Nov 4 2019

*** Betting strategies and other bets for day below Melbourne Cup preview

Melbourne Cup

 Brad Davidson's selections:

1st: 19. Constantinople (hardest to beat)

2nd: 13. Raymond Tusk (best roughie!)

3rd: 23.Vow And Declare

4th: 12.Prince Of Arran

 

50 unit betting strategy for Melbourne Cup (***more plays for strategies after Cup preview- scroll to bottom of page***)

15 unit win no.19. Constantinople at $9.50

10 unit win no.13. Raymond Tusk at $21

5 unit win no.23 Vow And Declare at $12

20 unit trifecta (5.55%)- 1st: 12,13,19,23. 2nd: 4,5,8,11,12,13,14,18,19,20,23. 3rd: 4,5,8,11,12,13,14,18,19,20,23.

 

19-13-23-12

19. Constantinople- Has all the right form. 2nd to Logician two back who is unbeaten and won the G1 St Leger in England next start by a big space (defeating Il Paradiso 5L in the process). Logician looks an out and out star. Constaninople beat home Norway in that race  comfortably and Norway has won a G3 in good fashion since. Constantinople’s Caulfield Cup run was the best in the race (no luck at all) and he looks a big track horse. 52.5kg. His form three back ties in as well. He was beaten .3L by Nayef Road and Nayef Road has since beaten Il Paradiso home by 3L to frank the form. The big query is he is very raw, overraces and can do plenty wrong and he might throw it away and wander about in the straught but on form and weight he looks the horse to beat for mine.

13.Raymond Tusk- Didn’t like him at first glance but warming to him here. His run in the Ebor was very good and he just had no luck at all there with the 61kg too. Had to go right back from the gate, held up most of the straight but was good late. The Ascot Gold Cup two back was too far for him, three back he stuck on behind Crystal Ocean giving him weight and Crystal Ocean went on to run a close second to Enable after that. He also has a strong second behind De Ex Bee (very good stayer) this trip four back giving that horse weight and he just looks a stayer. Think he has beaten the handicapper with 54kg (meets Mustajeer 2.5kg better off from Ebor, also meets Prince Of Arran .5kg better off for beating him comfortably in that race) and the key is he draws a gate to settle much closer.

23.Vow And Declare- Barrier is sticky but liked the way he never shirked the task in Caulfield Cup. Only run at 3000m last prep was arrogant in strong run Tatt’s Cup (much weaker than this). Looks a real stayer. 52kg, can only run well with luck from draw.

12.A Prince Of Arran- Just loves it in Aus. Beaten by The Chosen One two back which is a worry but Geelong Cup win was in very strong time and he did all the work up on speed. Ran a blinder in this race last year. Can only run well again. Meets Cross Counter 5.5kg better off from Cup last year.

Other chances:

11.Finche- Super effort in the Turnbull two back where just missed and then brave in Caulfield Cup where clearly best of on pacers in strong run race and he was wide no cover for a lot of it too. 4th in this race last year and will stay all day. He needs to build momentum and can’t be held up which is the question but I would be shocked if he didn’t finish top 8.

20.Il Paradiso- No match The Logician latest and OK behind Stradavarius prior but Stradivarius was toying with them. Went across the line with De Ex Bee there and that horse has strong form around Cross Counter, Master Of Reality and beat Raymond Tusk (He got 5,5kg off Dee Ex Bee that day where Raymond Tusk had to give him weight when they met!). Won by 12L Curragh three back but beat little there so not reading into that. Gets in light, looks a bit one paced for mine but has to go in.

18. Surprise Baby- Hasn’t beaten much but just keeps going to a new level. 2nd and 3rd out of Bart Cummings (which he won) both well held since in Geelong Cup and Caul Cup the concern. Has all the upside, has a turn of foot, has Flemington form and should stay.

8.Mustajeer-Won the Ebor and Run in the Caulfield Cup was solid enough for this. Should stay, draws well, Can’t say no although have a few ahead of him.

5.Southern France: Beat Cross Counter and Master Of Reality last start and also defeated Master Of Reality comfortably when winning the Irish St Leger trial. Beaten 9L at his last 3200m run where well held by Cross Counter. Form lines read OK. Plaace chance?

4. Mirage Dancer- Good in C Cup and can’t overlook. Yet to go 3200m but he was strong enough on line in C Cup for mine and shapes a rough place hope here.

14. Downdraft-Fair in MV Cup and then too good in Hotham albeit against much inferior opposition. Drops in weight and can’t rule out off big win on Saturday. Was peaking on line though?

22.The Chosen One- Beat Prince Of Arran in Herbert Power three back, run in Caulfield Cup was solid and then too keen latest. Blinkers off. Been a bit disappointing last few but run three back would give him a rough chance,

Other runners:

1.Cross Counter- Last year’s winner who did a bit wrong last start when finishing behind Southern France in Irish St Leger. Meets SF 2kg worse off here. Not sure he can win with the weight this year? To carry 6.5kg more than last year? That’s a lot! Loves it here though but too much weight for mine though.

2.Mer De Glace- Won his past 6 starts. First crack beyond 2400m. Up to 56kg after 1kg penalty. Runs the trip he goes close but I’m not sure he will. I’m taking him on simply from staying perspective. Also reckon if track is soft it could play against him, Could be totally wrong here but taking him on at the price of $6.50.

3. Master Of Reality- Really good in the Ascot Gold Cup v Stradivarius at 4000m but form either side fair looks a bit one paced for me.

6. Hunting Horn- Won the MV Cup and Downdraft franked that with good win in Hotham. Still comes across with just fair credentials?

7. Latrobe- Latrobe- Disappointing in Irish St Leger- Prior to that won and then three back just outstayed by Twilight Payment. Not going well enough for mine.

9. Rostropovich- Ran really well in this race last year for fifth and has been building. Latest was luckless in C Cup when working mid race in strong run race and tiring late. Would still need to improve but at least stays.

10. Twilight Payment- Twilight Payment- Disapp LS but outstayed Latrobe two back. Not far off Mustajeer and Master Of Reality prior. Not hopeless at odds.

15. Magic Wand- OK in Cox Plate. Won 2/19. Hard to have for mine. 3200m looks a risk.

16. Neufbosc- Just not going well enough.

17. Sound- Copped nasty check in Caulfield Cup but was struggling. Overraces badly and would need to lift.

21. Steel Prince- Does like Flemington but hard to have off form this prep.

24. Youngstar- Ran sixth in this race last year. Should stay but surprised if she is going well enough to place. Good top 10 chance though.

 

Other bets

Flemington Race 10 no.6 Betcha Flying $5.50

Has been heavily supported already ($9-$5.50). Should have won in Sydney last start and she draws a gate to park closer here. She will love the big Flemington straight and should be very strong at the finish here.

Randwick Kensington

Race 6 no.3 High Mist $9.50 (save on favourite no.5 Statuesquely $3)

Had to go right back but I loved the way he found the line first-up at Warwick Farm off a strong trial prior too. He clocked the 4th quickest last 200m of the day there (the rest in his range were 1000m races v 1400m race). He can park closer here and did win second up at this track and distance two preps back. Happy to save on the favourite Statuesquely meaning we don’t lose on the race if she wins. She gets a soft lead here and will be hard to run down. I just have to play at the price re High Mist.

 

Normal strategy (95 units)

Flemington

Race 7 no.19. Constantinople 15 unit win at $9.50

Race 7 no.13. Raymond Tusk 10 unit win at $21

Race 7 no.23 Vow And Declare 5 unit win at $12

20 unit Melbourne Cup trifecta (5.55%)- 1st: 12,13,19,23. 2nd: 4,5,8,11,12,13,14,18,19,20,23. 3rd: 4,5,8,11,12,13,14,18,19,20,23.

Race 10 no.6 Betcha Flying 15 unit win at $5.50

Randwick Kensington

Race 6 no.3 High Mist 20 unit win at $9.50

Race 6 no.5 Statuesquely 10 unit win at $3

Results: -449.6 units, (-9.2%POT, 4911 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (2.25 units)

Flemington

Race 7 no.19. Constantinople 0.5 unit win at $9.50

Race 7 no.13. Raymond Tusk 0.25 unit win at $21

Race 7 no.23 Vow And Declare 0.25 unit win at $12

Race 10 no.6 Betcha Flying 0.5 unit win at $5.50

Randwick Kensington

Race 6 no.3 High Mist 0.5 unit win at $9.50

Race 6 no.5 Statuesquely 0.25 unit win at $3

Results: -2.75 units (2.75 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.



Brad Davidson preview Melbourne Cup 2019 - Sky Racing Brad Davidson

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