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Brad Davidson preview Newcastle November 16

BRAD DAVIDSON PREVIEW NEWCASTLE NOVEMBER 16 Nov 14 2019

Best bet

Race 9 no.9 Leviathan $2.40 (rated $2.25, confidence 8/10)

He has that great form around Funstar last prep and did beat Lucicello on debut. Liked his trials coming in and he looks hard to beat.

Best value:

Race 3 no.4 Tully Toff $14 (rated $9.30, confidence 6/10)

Seems over the odds here in an open Highway. Was wide no cover last start where he scooted clear and just felt the pinch late. He was good off a slow tempo prior when held up as well. Expect him to settle just off the speed here and be in the thick of this at $15.

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

 

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less.

 

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy (85 units)

Race 3 no.4 Tully Toff 15 unit win at $14

Race 3 no.14 Denmiss 15 unit win tote

Race 4 no.10 Lucciola Belle 10 unit win tote

Race 9 no.9 Leviathan 25 unit win at $2.40

10 unit early quaddie (starts r2, 10.42%): 1st leg: 5,7,8. 2nd leg: 4,14,12,17. 3rd leg: 2,10,5,3. 4th leg: 1,3.

15 unit main quaddie: (starts r6, 12.5%): 1st leg: 5,3,7,1,6,9,4,13,8,12. 2nd leg: 2,7. 3rd leg: 3,4,1. 4th leg: 9,6.

Results: to be updated after weekend.

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Long game strategy (2.25 units)

Race 3 no.4 Tully Toff 0.5 unit win at $14

Race 3 no.14 Denmiss 0.5 unit win tote

Race 4 no.10 Lucciola Belle 0.25 unit win tote

Race 9 no.9 Leviathan 1 unit win at $2.40

Results: to be updated after weekend.

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Rail position: true

History of track bias:No history.            

Assessment: Expecting a fair track.

Wind: Gentle SE.

Race 1

Overview: Open race to kick off the day. Sir Pippin had no luck first-up and the extra trip should suit here. Rapido Chaparro didn’t run out the 2400m last start but back in trip, he will give them something to catch from the front. House Of Cartier has been flying under the radar a touch but I liked the way she has closed off in two runs this prep. She has been placed in an Australasian Oaks and gets out to her right distance range now. Falcon Island also has each-way claims.

Advice: Tricky race. Sir Pippin perhaps.

Confidence: 4/10

Speed map: Rapido Chaparro leads with Falcon Island prominent as well. Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 5-1-7-6

5. Sir Pippin ($6): No luck LS behind Asterius and Mr Reckless and should have finished closer. Extra trip suits.

1. Rapido Chaparro ($4): Didn’t run out 2400m last start but off the freshen back to 1850m. Must be respected as likely leader.

7. Falcon Island ($4): Had chance but strong enough off line in strong rating race last weekend. Ticked the distance box now.

6. House Of Cartier ($8.6): Liked the way she has closed off in two runs this prep. Latest was off a slow speed but warmed up late. Placed in Australasian Oaks and gets into right distance range now.

Other runners:

2. High Opinion ($8.6), 3. Master Shuhood ($10.5), 8. Tilbury Lodge ($300), 9. Dew Drop ($80).

Race 2

Overview: **No prices as insufficient data to price.

All of these are first starters so late betting moves will be important. I like the way Panna Cotta trialled leading in and she went to the line with See You Soon in a recent heat and that horse has been impressive in two runs to date. Her siblings include the likes of Curdled and Serene Majesty, so she comes from a good family. Tilia Rose has also looked good at the trials and finished second to subsequent Golden Gift winner Dame Giselle and then won her latest trial. Zeftabrook looks next best.

Advice: Leaning to Panna Cotta.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Zeftabrookt looks the most prominent but always hard to map these early 2yo races where they are all on debut.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 5-7-8-6

5.Panna Cotta- Like the way she trialled leading in. Went to line with See You Soon (impressive winner and 2nd in Golden Gift since) in only trial and wasn’t under a lot of pressure. 33.5 L600 was solid. Comes from good family- Siblings include Curdled, Serene Majesty

7.Tilia Rose- close 2nd to Golden Gift winner Dame Giselle first trial and then too good latest under little pressure. Looks to have talent.

8.Zeftabrook- Won both trials in solid style. Should be close to the speed and run well.

6.Redoute’s Image- Won latest trial but time was slower than Meydan Lass on the same day so not getting carried away.

Race 3

Overview: The Highway races can often throw up a result and I’m happy to speck two horses here in Tully Toff and Denmiss. Tully Toff was wide last time out and looked home before being caught late. I loved the way he found the line prior to that. Denmiss hasn’t had a lot go right of late but she has a second to subsequent Saturday city winner Sausedge this time in and draws to sit close to the speed here. She had no luck in a couple of Highway races earlier this prep. Smart Moove also has claims but looks a bit skinny in the market.

Advice: Backing Tully Toff and Denmiss at the odds.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Danzibar Dancer, Luff and Lose The Snip all roll forward but the speed doesn’t look overly strong. They tend to roll along in these races though.

Likely market trend: Expecting Smart Move to drift from $4.60 and Tully Toff and Denmiss to firm from $15.

Selections: 4-14-12-17

4. Tully Toff ($7.8): Shot for home and just didn’t run out 1400m latest but was three wide the trip there. Run prior had no luck 1175 when couldn’t get a crack at them and then burst through late.

14. Denmiss ($8.3): Draw the sit closer. Had to give them too much of a start last time out. Had no luck on a couple of Highway races earlier this prep. Has a second to a subsequent Sat city winner in Sausedge next to her name this prep too.

12. Smart Moove ($6.5): Good win at Dubbo last start and strong through line. Not sure she beat much there and Dubbo form not normally A grade form for Highways. Short enough but can win.

17. Weather Channel ($10.1): Next best. Racing well but back in trip here?

Other runners:

1. Texas Storm ($11.7), 2. Axella ($36.2), 3. Maid Marilyn ($14.3), 5. Lose The Snip ($14.3), 7. Gordon's Leap ($48.3), 8. Hammoon Ballad ($15.9), 9. Legendofoz ($48.3), 10. Trophies Galore ($11.7), 11. Danizbar Dancer ($72.5), 13. Luff ($36.2), 16. Under Pressure ($72.5), 18. Shirazzle ($#DIV/0!), 19. Smooth Factor ($#DIV/0!).

 

Race 4

Overview: I think she prefers wet ground but So Taken is really well graded here and she just didn’t run out the mile last start. She looks well placed in a race like this. Lucciola Belle found the line well off a slow tempo last start and she has good form around Noble Boy at this trip. I think the best roughie in this race is Let’s Rebelle. There was little between her and Miss Redoble two back and she has bolted in since. She gets in with no weight. Tinkermosa is not hopeless at big odds either and can sprint well fresh.

Advice: So Taken the horse to beat but Lucciola Belle and Let’s Rebelle the two at odds that can run well.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Solid speed expected here with Vitesse, Miss Redoble, Super Cyclone and Let’s Rebelle all prominent.

Likely market trend: Expecting Vitesse and Miss Redoble to both drift from $5.

Selections: 2-10-5-3

2. So Taken ($4.3): Prefer her on wet ground but well graded here. Didn’t run out mile LS so back to 1400m. Gets in well at weights in this grade and third to Prime Candidate back in Aug reads well.

10. Lucciola Belle ($9.3): Found the distance too short and Canterbury too tight two back and then found the line well off slow tempo latest. Form out of the race hasn’t been great but gets her chance up in trip. 2nd to Noble Boy at this trip.

5. Let's Rebelle ($11.6): Struggling to see the price diff between her and Miss Redoble considering she finished right on her tail two back? Bolted in Muswellbrook latst. Back to 1400m from 1500?

3. Tinkermosa ($18.9): Soft trials leading in, can often sprint well fresh. Has won fresh in the past.

Other runners:

1. Bellaria ($18.9), 4. Miss Redoble ($7.7),  7. Valree ($47.2), 8. Vitesse ($7.7), 9. Ballistica ($11.6), 11. Super Cyclone ($31.5), 13. To Your Health ($47.2), 14. Pinup Miss ($23.6).

Race 5

Overview: Hard to go past Rule The World and I loved his first-up win. He burnt the candle at both ends and this looks a logical progression. He is unbeaten and looks hard to beat again and backable at $2.90 as well. Kavalmo was a bit disappointing in the Carbine Club but gets the blinkers on for the first time and they might spark improvement. Donandkim is going great guns in easier grade and I wouldn’t be surprised if he shapes up here. Just Society and Indy Car (held up last start but ran on late) also have minor claims.

Advice: Rule The World can make it 4/4.

Confidence: 8/10.

Speed map: Rule The World should lead with Asiago and Rock Amore there as well. Speed looks even.

Likely market trend: Rule The World will be popular.

Selections: 1-7-3-5

1. Rule The World ($2.3): Burnt the candle both ends on debut and won well in race where swoopers ran on and rest of on pacers finished down the track. Mile looks natural progression. Well weighted, unbeaten.

7. Kavalmo ($7): Blinkers 1st time- Won mdn well two back clocking QL200 of the day and then struggled at Flemington (maybe too wet). Waller gave him a big push that day. Can bounce back.

3. Donandkim ($14.3): 3 from 3 this prep in much easier company but like the way he is progressing. Step up and not well off at level weights but respecting.

5. Just Society ($14.3): Clear best run of race latest when back in very slow run race and just missed. Can be a bit keen so 1800 back to 1600m should be OK to help him relax.

Other chances:

6. Indy Car ($9.3): Held up but found the line well last start albeit they went hard and he was entitled to. Extra trip should suit.

Other runners:

2. Rock Amore ($25.4), 4. Convinced ($20.3), 8. Elvezio ($205.8), 9. Asiago ($22.6), 10. Bright Rubick ($25.4), 11. Game Of Thorns ($102.9), 12. Sky Diamonds ($25.4).

 

Race 6

Overview: Open first edition of The Hunter. Tactical Advantage has been going well this prep and he was super off a slow speed in an on pace dominated race two back and then was too good down the straight at Flemington latest. The 1300m looks OK. Graff is a deserved favourite coming off strong form lines and he has had a tickover trial and a little freshen for this. Savatiano has been a firmer in early betting and she was wide and it was too wet and too far for her last time out. She can bounce back here. Le Romain, Invincible Gem, Bon Amis and even Siren’s Fury at big odds all have claims.

Advice: Leaning to Tactical Advantage at the odds.

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map: Solid speed expected with Savatiano, Goodfella, Manicure and Le Romain all rolling forward.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 5-3-7-1

5. Tactical Advantage ($8.9): Great run two back off slow speed in on pace dominated race then held up down straight but once clear, dominate late. 1300m looks OK. Looks the overs

3. Graff ($4.2): - Loved the way he trialled leading in. Comes through the right form races and deserved fav. $3.60 getting a bit skinny now but goes close.

7. Savatiano ($6.9): Wide and too wet LS in Melbourne when didn’t see out mile. Back on dry and back in trip here.

1. Le Romain ($10.4): Grand old campaigner. Prefers wet tracks but latest run on dry gives him a hope here in Redzel. Thereabouts.

Other chances:

6. Invincible Gem ($14.7): hasn’t been seen since the Tramway but form this prep has been pretty good. Recent trial just fair but didn’t wear blinkers there. Map?

9. Bon Amis ($10.4): Goes well fresh, Graff beat him easily in recent trial? My concern is 1300m fresh, looks on his outer limits to me.

4. Brave Song ($12.6): Better last time out off slow tempo after a sub par prep to date prior. 1300m suits and can run on.

13. Siren's Fury ($45.3): Backmarker so needs everything to go right but first-up record is better than it looks. Fresh run last time in made ground in no go zone on inside at Radnwick. Won fresh two preps back.

8. Redouble ($60.4): Pulled up with cardiac arrythmia last start so forgiving. Run prior just fair though so needs to improve but getting out to silly odds.

 

Other runners:

10. Manicure ($45.3), 11. Renewal ($45.3), 12. Fiesta ($36.3), 14. Sir Plush ($181.2), 15. Jonker ($45.3), 16. Goodfella ($90.6).

 

 

Race 7

Overview: He has the big weight to lump but Bobbing probably should have won The Kosciousko and I like the fact he has been kept nice and fresh for this. The speed looks strong and he can have last say. Outrageous is likeable here but he is short enough all the same. He got all the favours last start in a much weaker race and he might just need a bit of luck to get off the fence on the turn as well. What Could Be is coming out of a weak form race but isn’t hopeless either.

Advice: Bobbing on top.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Strong speed expected here with You Make Me Smile, Catesby and Murillo all up there.

Likely market trend: Expecting the gap between Bobbing and Outrageous to tighten from $5 and $2.90.

Selections: 2-7-14-8

2. Bobbing ($3.6): Make a case to say he should have won the Kosciousko and only Santa Ana Lane had a quicker last 200m on the day. Has the big weight here but kept fresh and should be strong late. $5 seems OK too.

7. Outrageous ($3.6):  Will be likeable with the claim and low weight. Did have all the favours last start though and overall figures weren’t out of this world. Maps well again, could need a bit of luck as likely to be on fence though with apprentice on.

14. What Could Be ($25.8): Doesn’t come out of the strongest race (6 subs st 0 pl) but thing about him is he has a good finish ion a strongly run race and he gets that set up here. Seems overs at $41.

8.You Make Me Smile ($14): Next best. Should roll forward and give them something to catch here.

Other runners:

1. Live And Free ($43),  6. My Xpression ($33), 9. Star Reflection ($25.8), 10. Into The Abyss ($12.7), 11. Catesby ($15.9), 12. Murillo ($15.9), 13. Onslaught ($43).

 

Race 8

Overview: Hard to go past Mushaireb and he does have the right form coming into this. The 49 day gap between runs could be viewed two different ways. It could be a slight negative up to 1500m but on the other hand, this horse races well fresh so it might not hurt him at all. I believe he did have a small setback as he was due to run last week but he is fine now. Got Unders can improve at odds here and he was disappointing last start but his form around Dealmaker prior and good stats at Newcastle keep him in this. Stryke Rock will relish the drop back in trip but maps poorly, while Mr Reckless just has to run up to last start to go close.

Advice: Mushaireb on top.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Expect Tahsin, Got Unders and Mushaireb to roll forward. Speed looks even to moderate.

Likely market trend: Expecting Mushaireb to be popular.

Selections: 3-4-1-7

3. Mushaireb ($2.4): 49 days between runs a slight ? but goes well fresh and super run first-up. Can be a bit keen the query but expect him to get across from the gate and be the one to beat. I believe he did have a small setback hence why he didn’t run last week but all good now. but only small.

4. Mr Reckless ($7.2): Form just fair and then super effort last start when off a soft tempo to miss in photo with Asterius. Opted for this race instead of 2000m. Does he want further?

1. Got Unders ($14.6): Wide last start albeit disappointing. Form prior was good (almost beat Dealmaker) and he does like Newcastle three wins here.Hit and miss but including.

 7. Juventus ($7.7): Ran on well LS behind Outrageous and can be closing off strongly again.

Other runners:

2. Strome ($10.2), 5. Tahsin ($11.3), 6. Decroux ($29.5), 14. Constantine ($103.3), 15. Chamisal ($103.3).

Race 9

Overview: Hard to go past Leviathan. He has that great form around Funstar last prep and did beat Lucicello on debut. Testifier had no luck at all first-up but comes through a weaker race, while Malea Magic was also luckless in the same event. Burning Crown look next best.

Advice: Leviathan on top but short enough now.

Confidence: 8/10.

Speed map: Burning Crown should lead with He’s A Hotshot rolling forward. Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: Leviathan will be popular.

Selections: 9-17-1-6

9. Leviathan ($2.25): Loved his form last time in. Quickest late splits of the day when winning on debut (defeated Lucicello) and then runner up to subs G1 winner, Trials have been solid. HTB.

17. Burning Crown ($8.7): Led and taken on to some degree two back and then back to Cl2 Plate and bolted in. Second horse won since and time was solid. Leads for a fair way.

1.Testifier ($6): No luck at all fresh and form last prep was strong. Form out of race has been ordinary 6 subs st 0 pl but can’t judge on that. Drawn inside, how is track?

6. Malea Magic ($15): Held up last start but liked her last 200m when clear. Can settle closer here. Not hopeless at odds.

 

Other runners:

2. Defeat ($24.5), 3. Lilith ($38), 4. Coterie ($18.7), 5. Paquirri ($50.6), 8. He's A Hotshot ($151.8), 15. Plenty ($50.6), 16. Come Along ($151.8), 18. Time Raid ($50).

 



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